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Russia’s war dead tops 70,000 as volunteers face ‘meat grinder’

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Russia’s war dead tops 70,000 as volunteers face 'meat grinder'
Getty Images A woman in a graveyard in Kursk, Russia reaches out to touch a gravestone which has a picture of a soldier on it. There are other gravestones and images of soldiers on both sides of her. Getty Images

More than 70,000 people fighting in Russia’s military have now died in Ukraine, according to data analysed by the BBC.

And for the first time, volunteers – civilians who joined the armed forces after the start of the war – now make up the highest number of people killed on the battlefield since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022.

Every day, the names of those killed in Ukraine, their obituaries and photographs from their funerals are published across Russia in the media and on social networks.

BBC Russian and the independent website Mediazona have collated these names, along with names from other open sources, including official reports.

We checked that the information had been shared by authorities or relatives of the deceased – and that they had been identified as dying in the war.

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New graves in cemeteries have also helped provide the names of soldiers killed in Ukraine – these are usually marked by flags and wreaths sent by the defence ministry.

We have identified the names of 70,112 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine, but the actual number is believed to be considerably higher. Some families do not share details of their relatives’ deaths publicly – and our analysis does not include names we were unable to check, or the deaths of militia in Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.

Among them, 13,781 were volunteers – about 20% – and fatalities among volunteers now exceed other categories. Former prisoners, who joined up in return for pardons for their crimes, were previously the highest but they now account for 19% of all confirmed deaths. Mobilised soldiers – citizens called up to fight – account for 13%.

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Since October last year, weekly fatalities of volunteers have not dipped below 100 – and, in some weeks, we have recorded more than 310 volunteer deaths.

As for Ukraine – it rarely comments on the scale of its deaths on the battlefield. In February, its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed, but estimates based on US intelligence suggest greater losses.

The story of Rinat Khusniyarov is typical of many of the volunteer soldiers who died. He was from Ufa in Bashkortostan and had been working two jobs to make ends meet – at a tram depot and a plywood factory. He was 62 years old when he signed his contract with the Russian army in November last year.

He survived less than three months of fighting and was killed on 27 February. His obituary, in a local online memorial website, simply called him “a hardworking, decent man”.

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Rinat Khusniyarov via ok.ru Montage of photographs of Rinat Khusniyarov in civilian life with a child, having fun and separately in army camouflage clothingRinat Khusniyarov via ok.ru

Rinat Khusniyarov signed up to fight at the age of 62

According to the data we analysed, most of the men signing up come from small towns in parts of Russia where stable, well-paid work is hard to find.

Most appear to have joined up willingly, although some in the republic of Chechnya have told human rights activists and lawyers of coercion and threats.

Some of the volunteers have said they did not understand the contracts they were signing had no end date, and have since approached pro-Kremlin journalists to, unsuccessfully, ask them for help ending their service.

Salaries in the military can be five to seven times higher than average wages in less affluent parts of the country, plus soldiers get social benefits, including free childcare and tax breaks. One-off payments for people who sign up have also repeatedly risen in value in many parts of Russia.

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Most of the volunteers dying at the front are aged between 42 and 50. They number 4,100 men in our list of more than 13,000 volunteers. The oldest volunteer killed was 71 years old – a total of 250 volunteers above the age of 60 have died in the war.

Soldiers have told the BBC that rising casualties among volunteers are, in part, down to their deployment to the most operationally challenging areas on the front line, notably in the Donetsk region in the east, where they form the backbone of reinforcements for depleted units, Russian soldiers told the BBC.

Russia’s “meat grinder” strategy continues unabated, according to Russian soldiers we have spoken to. The term has been used to describe the way Moscow sends waves of soldiers forward relentlessly to try to wear down Ukrainian forces and expose their locations to Russian artillery. Drone footage shared online shows Russian forces attacking Ukrainian positions with little or no equipment or support from artillery or military vehicles.

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Sometimes, hundreds of men have been killed on a single day. In recent weeks, the Russian military have made desperate, but unsuccessful, attempts to seize the eastern Ukrainian towns of Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk with such tactics.

An official study by the primary military medical directorate of the Russian defence ministry says that 39% of soldiers’ deaths are a result of limb injuries and that mortality rates would be significantly improved if first aid and subsequent medical care were better.

The Russian government’s actions suggests it is keen to avoid forcing people to fight through a new, official wave of mobilisation – instead, it is ramping up calls for service volunteers, along with the incentives to do so.

Remarks by regional officials in local parliaments suggest they have been tasked from the top with trying to recruit people from their local districts. They advertise on job vacancy websites, contact men who have debt and bailiff problems, and conduct recruitment campaigns in higher education establishments.

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Since 2022, convicted prisoners have also been encouraged to join up in return for their release, but now a new policy means people facing criminal prosecution can accept a deal to go to war instead of facing trial in court. In return, their cases are frozen and potentially dropped altogether.

Getty Images Russian military helicopters flying near a cemetery close to a military airfield outside Taganrog, Rostov in July 2022. Getty Images

A cemetery close to a military airfield outside Taganrog in south-west Russia

A small number of the volunteers killed have been from other countries. We have identified the names of 272 such men, many of whom were from Central Asia – 47 from Uzbekistan, 51 from Tajikistan, and 26 from Kyrgyzstan.

Last year saw reports of Russia recruiting people in Cuba, Iraq, Yemen and Serbia. Foreigners already living in Russia without valid work permits or visas, who agree to “work for the state”, are promised they will not be deported and are offered a simplified route to citizenship if they survive the war. Many have later complained that they did not understand the paperwork – as with Russian citizens, they have turned to the media for help.

The governments of India and Nepal have called on Moscow to stop sending their citizens to Ukraine and repatriate the bodies of the dead. So far, the calls have not been acted upon.

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Many new recruits who have joined the military have criticised the training they have received. A man who signed a contract with the Russian army in November last year told the BBC he had been promised two weeks of training at a shooting range before deployment to the front.

“In reality, people were just thrown out onto the parade ground, and dished out some gear,” he said, adding the equipment was poorly made.

“We were loaded on to trains, then trucks, and sent to the front. About half of us were thrown into battle straight from the road. As a result, some people went from the recruitment office to the front line in just a week,” he said.

Samuel Cranny-Evans, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in the UK says: “Basic understanding of things like camouflage and concealment or how to move quietly at night, how to move without creating a profile for yourself during the day,” should be taught as basic infantry skills.

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Another soldier also told the BBC that equipment is a problem, saying it “varies, but most often it’s some random set of uniforms, standard boots that wear out within a day, and a kit bag with a label showing it was made in the mid-20th Century”.

“A random bulletproof vest and a cheap helmet. It’s impossible to fight in this. If you want to survive, you have to buy your own equipment.”

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Business

How vulnerable is the UK to Trumponomics?

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UK chancellor Rachel Reeves does not want to “speculate or jump to conclusions” about what Donald Trump’s election means for the British economy.

“It’s an incredibly important trade relationship for the UK and US as well,” she told the Financial Times. “We want to grow that, as it has grown in recent years.”

Yet even if the UK’s reliance on services shields it from the worst of any fresh tariffs, the country remains vulnerable to global shocks in trade, business confidence and the bond market, say economists.

What are the risks to the UK?

Trump warned during the campaign that he wanted to impose a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese imports and 10 to 20 per cent on goods from other parts of the world.

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The UK is a relatively small, open economy, which makes it notably vulnerable to changes in import prices. While the EU is by far the UK’s biggest overall trade partner, in national rankings the US comes first when it comes to purchases of UK goods and services.

That said, analysts argue the UK should be less exposed to Trump’s ire than countries that run a large trade surplus with the US — such as China, Germany, or Mexico.

The US had a trade surplus with the UK, including an $8.2bn goods trade surplus in the January-September period, according to official US figures. However, partially because of differences in accounting for exports from the Channel Islands, the UK also reported a trade surplus with the US.

What happens if fresh tariffs come in?

If the UK ends up getting hit by US tariffs, vocal and economically sensitive industries would be affected. The UK exported about £8.2bn of pharmaceuticals, £7.5bn of cars and £5.3bn of mechanical power generators in the 12 months to the end of June 2024, according to official statistics. 

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Nevertheless, a relatively low proportion of UK goods exports overall go to the US — about 14 per cent in 2023, compared with more than 70 per cent for Canada and Mexico, according to United Nations Conference on Trade and Development data. 

The EU accounts for more than 40 per cent of UK goods and services exports, and about half of its goods exports. “The UK would not be in the front line of countries” hit by US tariffs, said Michael Saunders, a former Bank of England rate-setter who is now at Oxford Economics. “The UK is less vulnerable.”

Any inflationary impact from trade tensions would be mitigated if the UK opts against imposing retaliatory tariffs on the US, he added. 

Based on calculations that took into account the importance of the US as a trade partner and a country’s trade openness, Deutsche Bank concluded that the UK was not in the top 20 countries likely to be most affected by trade tariffs.

Total UK exports to the US are only 2 per cent of its GDP. As such, even assuming full pass-through from a fully implemented 10 per cent tariff increase, the GDP impact to Britain would be close to 0.2 per cent at most, said economist Allan Monks at JPMorgan.

What else does the UK sell to the US? 

The UK is the world’s second-largest services exporter after the US, accounting for about 7 per cent of global services exports. The UK will hope these do not get snarled up in Trump’s protectionist dash. 

British services exports made up for more than half of its total exports last year — a record high, according to official statistics. This is much larger than about a fifth for Germany. 

As a share of the economy, services exports account for about 18 per cent of UK GDP, the largest proportion of any G7 country, about double the figure for Germany and three times the shares of Italy and Canada.

“The UK would be little affected by the direct effects of US import tariffs,” said Elliott Jordan-Doak, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “But the direct effects of Mr Trump’s likely tariffs are only the start.”

What are the wider risks?

IMF analysis suggests global growth would suffer a blow if Trump goes ahead with his trade plans, even though the exact details of his tariff proposals remain unclear.

Any trade war between the US and key partners would have a great impact on EU export powerhouses such as Germany — leading to knock-on effects for the UK economy.

Christian Keller, an economist at Barclays, warned that uncertainty caused by the spectre of tariffs would “negatively affect investment and, more generally, confidence levels in Europe” even before they take effect, which may not be until the second half of 2025.

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The German economy is heavily at risk of US tariffs because of its massive manufacturing sector. It is forecast to grow only by 0.6 per cent in 2025 after marginally contracting this year, according to data compiled by Consensus Economics.

The IMF has modelled the combination of tit-for-tat tariffs, a 10-year extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, reduced net migration and higher global borrowing costs. It warned of a 0.8 per cent hit to forecast global economic output next year and a 1.3 per cent blow in 2026.

What about other US policies?

Trump has vowed not only to extend tax cuts passed during his first term but to push through fresh reductions in corporate tax rates as well as reductions at an individual level on income from overtime pay, tips and pensions. He also wants to deport millions of undocumented immigrants.

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The federal debt is projected to swell by an additional $7.5tn in 10 years if Trump follows through with his proposals, according to pre-election analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

This raises the prospect of bond market investors taking fright at US fiscal laxity and associated inflation risks. If this happened, there could be contagion risks for other fiscally vulnerable countries, including the UK, said Sushil Wadhwani, a former BoE policymaker.

Bond market vigilantes could “switch their attention to us, having first had a go at US Treasuries”, he said. “As a small, open economy we can’t insulate ourselves from trouble globally.”

Additional reporting by George Parker

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Assura boosts profits as portfolio value grows to £3.1bn

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Assura boosts profits as portfolio value grows to £3.1bn

The profit boost comes amid a £25.4m rise in investment property value to £3.1bn.

The post Assura boosts profits as portfolio value grows to £3.1bn appeared first on Property Week.

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Jet2 launches London Luton base

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Jet2 launches London Luton base

The carrier will fly to 17 destinations from Luton next summer, including Alicante, Girona, Madeira and Verona

Continue reading Jet2 launches London Luton base at Business Traveller.

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Just Eat’s Grubhub takeout leaves a bitter taste for investors

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Line chart of Share prices rebased in € terms showing Uber and DoorDash have cracked the code on food delivery

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Who didn’t go overboard on takeout during the pandemic and now wants to shed the resulting excess weight? Just Eat Takeaway this week announced a long-anticipated sale of the US subsidiary, Grubhub. The sale valuation is a mere mouthful at $650mn, made up of $500mn of attached debt and just $150mn in cash paid to Just Eat.

Grubhub had been acquired during the 2020 frenzy at a $7.3bn valuation. Just Eat gave up a nearly a third of the company’s overall shares as consideration to Grubhub shareholders. Since the day the deal was announced, Just Eat shares have fallen nearly 90 per cent and its equity value today is just above €2bn. Pandemic-era miscalculations are proving to be very expensive and investors are showing little mercy in punishing 2020-era profligacy.

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Just Eat created what was a “quad” strategy. It had already established food delivery businesses in the Netherlands, UK and Germany with the huge US marketplace as its fourth “profit pool”. The US economics, however, were not very good, pandemic boost aside.

Line chart of Share prices rebased in € terms showing Uber and DoorDash have cracked the code on food delivery

For 2023, Grubhub generated €2bn in revenue but just €125mn in ebitda. Free cash flow is similarly scant. Worse yet, North America gross market volume — the total dollar value of orders — shrunk 14 per cent compared with the year before. The company had been trying to unload Grubhub for some time and even presented group results excluding North America to avoid tainting the European operations.

Yet in the US, rivals DoorDash and Uber Eats are thriving. Meanwhile, Grubhub has disproportionate exposure to New York City, through its Seamless brand, where the municipal government has capped delivery fees and even sought to crack down on e-bike battery usage. 

True, Just Eat deciding to use its inflated share price and valuation multiple in 2020 to acquire Grubhub was a better call than relying on debt and cash. Still, the dilution remains painful. Just Eat shares rallied 15 per cent on Wednesday on the prospect of an end to this saga.

Grubhub’s buyer is Wonder, a New York-based ghost kitchen chain founded by the billionaire entrepreneur Marc Lore. In conjunction with the Grubhub buyout, Wonder said it was raising $250mn in private funding. It can only hope that is enough to fix this dodgy takeout order. 

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Bitcoin Surges Past $90,000 After Trump Election Win

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Trump Crypto Surge Pushes Bitcoin Beyond $90,000 Amid Market Shake-Up

In a historic rally, Bitcoin has broken through the $90,000 mark following Donald Trump’s recent election victory, a monumental leap driven by the former president’s crypto-friendly stance. The cryptocurrency, which stood at $36,000 a year ago, has surged on Trump’s campaign promises to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the planet” and accumulate a national Bitcoin reserve. As expectations build around regulatory relaxations, Bitcoin is now eyeing the $100,000 milestone, potentially reaching it before Trump takes office.

Yesterday saw Bitcoin’s price rise from $88,000 to over $93,000. Meanwhile, the broader markets reacted cautiously to the latest U.S. inflation report, which held steady at 2.6%. New York indices made small gains in early trading, while London’s FTSE 100 ended with a slight increase of 0.06%, closing at 8,030.33. At one point, it dipped below 8,000 for the first time since August, and the FTSE 250 dropped 0.34%, ending the day at 20,359.21.

Shifts in Traditional Markets Amid Bitcoin Buzz

While Bitcoin captured the financial world’s attention, traditional markets showed mixed reactions. New York’s major indices saw modest growth, whereas London’s markets struggled with more subdued gains. Dowlais, a key player in the automotive industry, led the FTSE 250 gainers board after reporting stable trading performance. Despite a decline in its electric powertrain division, the company’s shares jumped 6.7% to 51.3p, as underlying revenue for the year fell by 6.1% to £4.2 billion. Dowlais, spun off from the GKN empire in 2023, has faced challenges in its primary market but received positive investor support, particularly outside China where joint venture revenue stayed flat.

Smiths Group, a FTSE 100 company, was among the day’s biggest winners, climbing 10.5% to 1681p. The medical and airport scanners firm raised its full-year revenue growth outlook to between 5% and 7% after posting 16% organic revenue growth for the first quarter. On the other hand, private equity firm Intermediate Capital took a hit, falling 7.2% to 2078p as its half-year pre-tax profits dropped from £241.9 million to £198.4 million, despite a rise in net asset value. Similarly, Experian saw a 2.5% decline as interest rate movements contributed to a 5.9% drop in first-half pre-tax profit.

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Automotive and Energy Sector Developments

In the automotive sector, Dowlais’ Driveline division outperformed other global light vehicle production markets, with the exception of China, providing some optimism to investors after a challenging period since its spin-off from Melrose Industries in 2023.

Scottish energy giant SSE saw a modest dip of 0.6% after announcing the upcoming retirement of CEO Alistair Phillips-Davies, who has served at the company’s helm for 11 years. Nevertheless, SSE reported a 38% rise in half-year pre-tax profit and boosted its interim dividend by 6%, signaling continued strong performance despite executive turnover.

Bitcoin’s Future and Market Uncertainty

Bitcoin’s unprecedented rally has fueled hope for continued growth in the cryptocurrency market under a Trump administration that has vowed to embrace digital assets. Traditional markets, however, remain cautious as they navigate the latest inflation figures and other economic challenges. While Bitcoin’s record-breaking surge has brought renewed enthusiasm to the digital asset sector, the broader financial landscape continues to grapple with sector-specific issues and the potential effects of economic policies under new leadership.

With Trump’s support energizing the cryptocurrency sector, the question remains whether this momentum can sustain Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. As the U.S. economy and global markets adapt to changing conditions, both traditional and digital assets will be closely watched to see if this surge heralds a new era for Bitcoin and crypto investments.

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Monte dei Paschi shares jump 9% after rival BPM takes stake

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Shares in Monte dei Paschi di Siena jumped 9 per cent in early trading on Thursday after the Italian government sold a 15 per cent stake in the bailed-out lender for €1.1bn, bringing in rival Banco BPM as a shareholder.

Milan-based BPM said it had bought a 5 per cent position in MPS after the market closed on Wednesday, as the government offloaded a majority of its remaining stake in the Tuscan lender that it bailed out in 2017.

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MPS’ stock rose more than 9 per cent to €6.04 in early trading in Milan.

The sale reduces the Italian government’s stake in MPS, the world’s oldest bank, to 11.7 per cent from 26.7 per cent.

“We have completed an important action as we had announced in institutional venues by providing for the implementation of an Italian banking and financial policy operation aimed at strengthening the shareholder base,” said economy minister Giancarlo Giorgetti.

The government’s stake sale via an accelerated book build marks the latest step in a drawn-out restructuring process at MPS.

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The Italian government held as much as 64 per cent of the bank’s shares as recently as last year, but has been reducing its ownership as part of an agreement with EU authorities to return the lender to private ownership.

Although BPM said it had no plans to request permission to exceed a 10 per cent holding in MPS, analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods said the market was “likely to speculate that [BPM] could be interested in acquiring a controlling stake . . . in the future”. They added that “such a scenario could be favourable to both banks”.

BPM shares rose more than 4 per cent to €7.05 in early trading on Thursday.

Despite producing bumper profits and shareholder returns over the past two years, European lenders are under pressure to cut costs and find new revenue sources as interest rates fall. One option is to merge with rivals, which can produce cost savings and economies of scale.

The Italian government stepped in to rescue MPS in 2017 by handing over €5.4bn in exchange for a 70 per cent stake in the lender, marking Italy’s biggest bank nationalisation since the 1930s.

The Italian Treasury said on Wednesday it had placed the MPS shares at €5.792, a 5 per cent premium on Wednesday’s closing price.

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