President Joe Biden was on lively form here in New York yesterday as he delivered a speech trumpeting his administration’s work to galvanise clean energy investment in the US and beyond.

“It’s the perfect time to go big — the market for clean energy is booming,” Biden said.

His remarks reflected the wider buzz around Climate Week NYC — an event that seems to be the busiest in its 16-year history, in terms of the number of sessions and attendees. But the energy here strikes a contrast with what many see as a sagging level of engagement around climate action among many corporate and financial leaders.

Climate Week tends to provide a useful sense of what to expect at the annual UN COP summit a couple of months later. The run-up to this year’s COP29 in Baku, however, will be overshadowed by the US election, which will be held just six days earlier. Donald Trump, who would pull the US out of the Paris Agreement for a second time, is slightly behind in the race, according to our FT poll tracker, but far from out of the running. “If we don’t lead, who the hell leads?” Biden said yesterday, in a swipe at his predecessor.

In today’s newsletter, we highlight two of the most interesting items in the flurry of activity in New York. Climate scientists are aiming to concentrate minds on an alarming new set of findings, with the help of a star-studded (and evocatively named) initiative. And one of the world’s biggest investor alliances is making some progress in reducing financed emissions, Patrick reports. — Simon Mundy

sustainability

Sustainability superheroes? Branson calls in the ‘Planetary Guardians’

It might seem surprising that Marvel Comics didn’t long ago snap up the name “Planetary Guardians” for one of its lucrative superhero franchises.

The Disney subsidiary’s failure to do so left an opening for UK billionaire Richard Branson. The Planetary Guardians initiative, set up last year with funding from the charitable foundation of Branson’s Virgin Group, was behind this week’s publication of the first “planetary health check”. The report is an attempt to quantify the impacts of human activity on the environment, and the risks of severe and irreversible damage.

“In business, if I can’t measure something, I can’t fix it,” Branson told me. “I think the same applies to the world’s problems.”

While the initiative may sound gimmicky to some readers, it highlights some important angles around environmental science and the economic responses to it.

While Branson’s foundation provided the financial resources for this initiative, it’s built on more than 15 years of research by Johan Rockström, one of the world’s most prominent climate scientists and director of Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

Rockström pioneered the concept of “planetary boundaries”, in a scientific effort to identify safe limits for human interference in “global environmental functions” such as natural ecosystems and water circulation. If those levels are exceeded for an extended period, he warns, those systems are likely to move outside the relatively stable conditions that humanity has enjoyed over the past 10,000 years.

Other scientists and experts will have their own views on precisely what level of interference should be considered “safe”. In any case, Rockström’s report this week makes for unsettling reading, showing that the world is well into the danger zone for most of the metrics covered, from atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to changes in land and water use.

“The overall diagnostic is that the patient, Planet Earth, is in critical condition,” Rockström wrote in the report, adding that six of the nine planetary boundaries have been broken.

This report, produced by Rockström’s Planetary Boundaries Science team, will be updated annually, he told me, adding that he would be leading further research around opportunities for private sector investment to play a part in addressing these problems.

“I’ll be very honest here: the data and the science is making us really nervous,” Rockström said. “So we cannot sit around just doing science for science any more. We need to do science for change, and this is one of those efforts.”

As well as supporting the research of Rockström and his colleagues, the initiative will aim to publicise it through the 19 “guardians”, a global group of prominent environmental advocates who range from former UN climate change head Christiana Figueres to Mexican youth activist Xiye Bastida to Hiro Mizuno, former chief investment officer of Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund.

Figueres told me the project was not aimed at simply calling attention to the science, but at forcing consideration of “the consequences and the decisions that need to be made”.

In particular, the project aims to focus the attention of global political and business leaders — some of whom have shown dwindling interest in environmental issues over the past two years, even as scientific research has shown ever greater grounds for alarm.

The gap between what the private sector is doing, and what the science suggests is necessary, “should disappear” in an efficient market system, Mizuno said. “But at the moment, that’s not what’s happening.” (Simon Mundy)

carbon emissions

Pension funds and insurance groups reveal emissions cuts

While a growing number of large asset managers have bailed from their net zero commitments in recent years, big pension and insurance funds are bucking the trend to hold on to their climate ambitions.

Today members of the Net-Zero Asset Owners Alliance unveiled how much they have trimmed their greenhouse gas emissions. In 2023, the group’s financed emissions were 31 per cent lower than in 2018, according to its report.

Additionally, members have increased their investments into “climate solutions” to 6 per cent of their portfolios, reaching $555bn in the past year.

Still, to hit global emissions targets, asset owners must work with others “to close the widening gap between our trajectory and the real economy, which still lags far behind”, Günther Thallinger, a board member at Allianz and chair of the NZAOA, told me.

The NZAOA’s 88 members hold a total of $9.5tn and include AkademikerPension, the Church Commissioners for England and Zurich Insurance. The group is a sister body to the Net Zero Asset Managers initiative, which started in December 2020 to push investment companies to achieve net zero goals. Two years after its launch, Vanguard quit the group, to make clear that it “speaks independently on matters of importance to our investors”. Vanguard’s assets under management total $9.3tn, nearly the size of all the NZAOA members combined.

Other asset managers have left Climate Action 100+, which was launched in 2017 to push companies to reduce their carbon footprints. These firms and others that departed these initiatives were facing significant pushback to climate initiatives from US Republicans and oil companies.

Still, the emissions efforts by the asset owners underscore that a huge pool of capital remains committed to fighting global warming. (Patrick Temple-West)

Smart read

Three years ago at COP26 in Glasgow, major economies signed the Global Methane Pledge, committing to reduce their emissions of the potent greenhouse gas 30 per cent by 2030. But methane emissions are continuing to climb, according to a new study using satellite monitoring by environmental data company Kayrros.

A MAJOR DIY chain has launched a huge closing down sale at several of its stores, which are set to close before Christmas.

Homebase is set to close six stores in December, and shoppers can now take advantage of discounts worth up to 60% at these shops.

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Stores in Sutton Coldfield, Bromsgrove, Cromer, Fareham, Newark and Rugby will also close over the busy festive period.

Shoppers visiting the affected stores can now get hefty discounts on everything from kitchens to furniture and homeware.

Shops are now brandishing huge “Store Closing. Everything Must Go” signs.

As far as discounts go, Homebase’s Bromsgrove store has slashed the price of new kitchens by 60%.

Shoppers can also get 40% off radiators and solar lighting and 25% off furniture, tiles and wallpaper.

All six stores listed above will close before Christmas in December, though exact dates have yet to be confirmed.

Three more Homebase sites in Derry/Londonderry, Inverurie, and Omagh are also set to close in the coming months, but Homebase hasn’t confirmed when this will occur.

All 10 stores were sold to Sainsbury’s after the company agreed to acquire them from the DIY chain in August.

Once all stores are closed, Sainsbury’s will convert the units into new supermarkets.

The conversion of these sites is anticipated to create approximately 1,000 new jobs.

The acquisition of the stores and refit programme to follow is expected to cost Sainsbury’s £130million.

Once they are converted, the shop floor area of the stores will range from approximately 15,000 to 40,000 square feet and will add a total of around 235,000 square feet to its supermarket trading space.

Sainsbury’s plans to open the first of these new stores by next summer, marking a significant expansion for the supermarket chain.

Simon Roberts, chief executive officer of Sainsbury’s, said last month: “Sainsbury’s food business continues to go from strength to strength as we push ahead with our Next Level Sainsbury’s plan.

“We have the best combination of value and quality in the market and that’s winning us customers from all our key competitors and driving consistent growth in volume market share.

“We want to build on this momentum, which is why we are growing our supermarket footprint.”

UP FOR SALE

The sale of these stores follows reports that Homebase’s owner is looking to sell the company. 

Hilco Capital, which purchased Homebase from Wesfarmers in 2018 for £1, was believed to have started a formal sale process after being approached by The Range.

Other retailers that have previously shown an interest in Homebase include B&M, the London-listed discount retailer.

It’s understood that this sale process is still ongoing.

Homebase currently operates around 144 locations across the UK.

The DIY chain was founded by the supermarket giant Sainsbury’s and Belgian retailer GB-Inno-BM in 1979.

The first store opened in Croydon in April 1981 and was located on the Purley Way.

The company steadily grew and, in 1989, opened its 50th store in Norwich.

By 1995, Homebase had 82 stores, and Sainsbury’s acquired 241 Texas Homecare stores, which were soon converted into the Homebase format.

Homebase then operated as a subsidiary under the Home Retail Group from October 2006 until 2016.

Australian retailer Wesfarmers and owner of the Bunnings brand purchased Homebase for £340million in February 2016.

However, by February 2018, Wesfarmers reported losses relating to the takeover of £57million in the year to June 2017, and soon decided to implement a review of the business.

In May 2018, Hilco bought the hardware store chain for just £1.

Prior to the Hilco takeover, Homebase had 250 stores at its peak and 11,500 staff.

However, the brand soon returned to profit after it entered a CVA agreement and restructured its business.

Homebase has closed 106 stores since it was taken over by Hilco Capital in 2018.

HOMEWARE CHAINS STRUGGLE

It has been a tricky time for home improvement chains, both large and small.

This is because shoppers have been cutting back on spending following the pandemic.

Plus, the recent turmoil in the housing market has meant that homeowners aren’t as focused on DIY projects as they once were.

In the spring, Kingfisher, which owns B&Q and Screwfix, revealed that annual profits had slumped by more than a quarter.

The company reported a 25.1% drop in underlying pre-tax profits to £568million for the year to January 31, 2024.

Window and door specialist Everest called in administrators in April, leaving customers in the dark about their orders.

Last year, the group had previously cautioned profits would slip after a 36% drop in pre-tax profits from £1billion to £611million in the 12 months to January 2023.

Rival Wickes also reported a 31% fall in profits to £52million on flat revenues of £1.55billion for 2023.

Windows and doors company Safestyle collapsed into administration in October last year.

The company has a manufacturing site in Wombwell, near Barnsley and 42 sales branches and depots across the country.

Flooring retailer Tapi recently struck a multimillion-pound rescue deal to save the Carpetright brand and dozens of stores in July.

Tapi purchased 54 of the chain’s stores and two warehouses in a pre-pack administration deal that saved 300 jobs.

However, the deal did not include 200 other stores which all closed their doors.

More than 430 people have died from cholera in the past month, Sudan’s health ministry says, as civil war continues to ravage the country.

The number of infections has risen to about 14,000, it said in a statement.

It said it was doing all it can to “combat cholera in the affected states, amid the rise in infections”.

Getting treatment to those affected areas is hugely complicated by the conflict which has killed up to 150,000 people since it began last year, according to the US special envoy for Sudan, Tom Perriello.

Medical charity Doctors Without Borders (MSF) reported that they are “regularly obstructed by both warring parties, the humanitarian response remains far below what is needed”.

Cholera is a fast developing and highly contagious disease. It can cause diarrhoea, dehydration and death, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).

It is relatively easy to cure, but rapid treatment is essential.

Health Minister Haitham Mohammed Ibrahim declared a cholera outbreak in mid-August.

As well as the war, heavy rainfall and floods have also contributed to the cholera outbreak, compounded by crowding in displacement camps.

Esperanza Santos, MSF emergency coordinator for Sudan, said these elements had created a “perfect storm” for cholera to spread.

In some areas schools, markets and stores have been told to close to curb the spread of the disease.

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The writer is the director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will present his “victory plan” for ending Russia’s war against his country during a visit to the US this week. Central to the plan is likely to be the demand that the Biden administration remove limits on Ukraine’s use of Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike deep into Russia. Kyiv argues that long-range strikes would enable it to destroy Russia’s logistics infrastructure, airfields, and artillery and rocket positions. 

The debate about the wisdom of allowing Ukraine to conduct such strikes hinges not only on their military utility but on divergent views over the risks of Russian retaliation. Some argue that Ukraine’s ongoing Kursk offensive and its recent drone strikes against large Russian ammunition depots are ultimate proof that Russia’s red lines are a chimera. Others worry that, were ATACMS or British Storm Shadow missiles to rain down on Russian territory, Moscow would escalate the conflict horizontally or vertically. It could expand the geographic scope of hostilities with the west, for instance, by helping the Houthis attack maritime shipping in the Middle East, or inch closer to using a nuclear weapon in Europe.

But Russia faces its own dilemmas in weighing how and where to retaliate. Serious assistance to the Houthis would cost Moscow its relations with third parties — chiefly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — that have been important to its wartime economic survival. Co-ordination with the Gulf Arab states in Opec+ has given Russia leverage over the oil market, and the UAE has emerged as a crucial conduit for Russian efforts to evade western sanctions.

Significant weapons transfers to the Houthis would not just risk irritating Gulf leaders but also Xi Jinping: China gets most of its oil from the Middle East and its ships have already come under attack in the Red Sea, notwithstanding the Houthis’ promises of safe passage.

Vertical escalation vis-à-vis Ukraine’s backers would not come attached with the same risks of irking Russia’s non-western partners. Should the Biden administration lift its veto on Ukrainian long-range strikes, Russia may well expand its sabotage, espionage and disinformation operations in Europe.

It may also look for additional ways to stoke fears of nuclear war. Having verbally threatened nuclear apocalypse one time too many, Moscow is now preparing an update to its official nuclear doctrine (presumably to lower the threshold for use), while occasionally hinting that it may conduct a test. But again, this type of vertical escalation is not cost-free for Moscow. It risks unnerving not just China but the many nuclear “have-nots” in the “global south” — countries Russia is courting in its crusade for a post-western international order — without actually achieving its goal of diminishing support for Ukraine.

Western states are not alone in facing dilemmas while pondering their next moves over Ukraine. Ancillary costs (and uncertain benefits) may well mitigate against Russia opting for serious horizontal or vertical escalation — especially since Vladimir Putin remains supremely confident in the prospects of Russia’s victory in Ukraine over the medium term.

This is neither to argue that horizontal escalation is off the cards, nor that a point of nuclear last resort is non-existent: should Russia perceive itself to be on the back foot in Ukraine in ways that cause it to seriously worry, factors that should at present weigh in favour of restraint could suddenly become less important.

Recognising that Putin faces constraints in contemplating options for escalation should also be no cause for trivialising the cumulative impact its actions will still have. Russia’s moves up the escalation ladder still make it the midwife of a more dangerous global nuclear environment.