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The U.S. Should Fully Withdraw From Iraq

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The U.S. Should Fully Withdraw From Iraq

After negotiating for most of the year, U.S. and Iraqi officials finally reached a deal on Friday over the U.S. presence in Iraq—one that is frankly long overdue.

Although U.S. officials insist that Washington won’t be pulling all 2,500 troops out of the country and are hesitant to use the term “withdrawal,” the U.S. will be thinning out its deployment over the next two years. According to the two-phase plan presented on Sept. 27, the U.S.-backed counter-Islamic State (IS) mission in Iraq will formally end by September 2025 and remove U.S. troops from certain bases in the country. In the second phase, Iraq has agreed to allow the U.S. military to continue using Iraq to support ongoing operations against IS in neighboring Syria, where some 900 American troops are based, through 2026, the Associated Press reported.

The announcement is likely to calm those in the national security establishment—lawmakers, commentators, and former generals alike—who are forever petrified about a full U.S. withdrawal and quick to argue it would be dangerous to U.S. interests. Earlier this month, House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers wrote on X, “Withdrawing from Iraq in this way would benefit and embolden Iran and ISIS. I am deeply concerned about the impacts such a decision would have on our national security.” Retired Gen. Joseph Votel, a former commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East, also claimed that a U.S. departure would inevitably cause IS to resurge as it seeks to fill the vacuum left behind.

But these critiques don’t hold up to scrutiny. The U.S. needs a clean break, not a conditions-based transition that could extend its mission for years to come. (The Biden Administration has refused to provide details on how many U.S. troops will remain in Iraq.)

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First, it’s important to note that the U.S. has already achieved its counter-IS objectives in Iraq. From the moment the Obama Administration cobbled together a large coalition and began striking IS positions in September 2014, the U.S. mission was clear and measurable: eliminate IS’ territorial caliphate, which at its height was as large as Britain, encompassed approximately 8 million people, and earned around $1 million a day from oil sales on the black market. IS was a highly committed opponent at the time and one of the richest terrorist organizations in history, boasting tens of thousands of fighters from more than 80 countries.

IS, however, always had a fundamental weakness: it had no friends, let alone allies, and alienated everybody in its path. The group’s utter depravity toward local populations as well as its desire to supplant governments was ultimately its undoing. The West, with the U.S. in the lead, viewed IS as a magnet for jihadists who sought to attack its people. Minorities like the Kurds and Yezidis saw IS as a bunch of messianic, bloodthirsty brutes who sought to wipe out their communities. And states that otherwise had intense geopolitical rivalries with each other—Iran, Russia, Iraq, Syria, Turkey, and the Gulf states to name but a few—all agreed that destroying IS was in their collective interest.

The results speak for themselves. Courtesy of an intense three-year U.S. bombing operation, combined with a hard-fought ground campaign that included everybody from U.S. special operations forces and the Iraqi army to the Kurdish peshmerga and Iranian-backed Shia militias, IS advances were stopped and rolled back. By December 2017, the Iraqi government declared that IS’ territorial caliphate was in the ash heap of history (a similar declaration was made in Syria about 15 months later). The caliphate remains eliminated to this day, so much so that a senior U.S. official participated in a think-tank event earlier this year marking the 5th anniversary of its defeat.

Many in the Beltway argue that just because IS’ territorial caliphate is no longer around, that doesn’t mean the threat is over. This is a legitimate concern; IS is reportedly on track to more than double the number of attacks in Iraq and Syria compared to last year.

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Yet to think that the entire counter-IS effort will unravel absent U.S. troops is to leave all the other local actors without agency. The Iraqi government, the Turks, the Russians, and even the loathed Assad regime continue to have a self-interest in ensuring that IS doesn’t rebuild its caliphate. Their military capabilities against IS are also better today than when the mission began a decade ago. The Iraqi army is as proficient at planning, organizing, and conducting independent operations against IS holdouts along the country’s periphery than it has ever been. The same thing can be said about the peshmerga, which according to the Defense Department’s Inspector General for the counter-IS mission, has improved mission planning and counterinsurgency operations in their area of responsibility.

The U.S. would still have options even in the event of a full troop withdrawal. The U.S. intelligence community would surely remain laser-focused on the group and won’t hesitate to take action in the event an imminent plot is detected or a high-profile terrorist rears his head. The U.S. has proven it can do both without a ground presence. In August 2022, a year after the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan, Washington killed Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri in a drone strike. This January, the U.S. warned Iran about a pending IS attack that eventually came to fruition. In March, the U.S. did the same with Russia, sharing highly specific intelligence on an IS-orchestrated plot in Moscow the Russians unfortunately failed to stop.

Is IS completely down and out? No, but that’s the wrong question. The right question is whether U.S. interests are best served by staying put in Iraq in perpetuity, particularly when doing so presents even more security problems.

The U.S. ground presence is a gift to Iran and its allied militias in the Middle East. That’s because the presence of U.S. bases on foreign lands give them a rallying call and a nearby target; U.S. troops have been targeted more than 200 times since October in large part over Washington’s support for Israel. One of those attacks, in late January, killed three U.S. personnel at a small outpost in Jordan, near its border with Iraq and Syria.

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President Biden retaliated by striking dozens of militia and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps positions in Iraq and Syria. Yet rocket attacks resumed in July, and in August, five U.S. troops were wounded as two rockets slammed into the al-Asad air base. The U.S., in other words, is taking unnecessary risk on behalf of a mission that was achieved years prior.

The Biden Administration has set the stage for a more normal, business-like relationship with the Iraqi government. The outstanding question, which is still to be determined, is whether the next President will finally realize that the U.S. has achieved all it can in Iraq. And if so, when?

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In pictures: Hurricane Helene destruction

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In pictures: Hurricane Helene destruction

Hurricane Helene is one of the most powerful storms ever to hit the United States with wind gust speeds of 140 mph (225 km/h) and heavy rain.

The storm made landfall in Florida overnight on Thursday as a category four hurricane but was downgraded to a tropical storm as it moved rapidly more inland.

It was the strongest storm on record to hit Florida’s Big Bend, and it moved north into Georgia and the Carolinas.

At least 45 people have died and millions have been left without power.

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Insurers and financial institutions say damage caused by the storm could run into the billions of dollars.

Getty Images An aerial view of damaged houses next to the coastGetty Images

In Horseshoe Beach, Florida, an aerial view shows debris from damaged houses. One resident from the area told Reuters that although the risk of hurricanes is the “price you pay for wanting to live on the coast”, there is a point when “enough is enough”
Getty Images A house is pictured with one side ripped of, with piles of bricks next to itGetty Images

A home furniture shop in Valdosta, Georgia, is destroyed. The shop, called Chez What, posted a message on Facebook, saying their hearts were “heavy”
Reuters A man walks through a room which has its ceiling falling down and furniture damagedReuters

A man, Nash Harris, looks for some salvageable clothing in his home in Steinhatchee in Florida’s Big Bend
Reuters Children walk past the collapsed portion of a bridge after flood waters destroyed it, in Boone, North CarolinaReuters

Children walk past the collapsed portion of a bridge after flood waters destroyed it in Boone, North Carolina
Reuters A local resident helps free a car that became stranded in a stretch of flooding road on the outskirts of Boone, North Carolina.Reuters

A local resident helps free a car that became stranded in a stretch of flooding road on the outskirts of Boone, North Carolina
EPA Members of the Atlanta Fire Rescue Department's Water Rescue Team rescue a man in Atlanta, GeorgiaEPA

Members of the fire department’s water rescue Team help a man in Atlanta, Georgia

Across the region many would wake to find damage from flooding.

Jonathan Drake/Reuters Flood waters wash over Guy Ford Road bridge on the Watauga River as Hurricane Helene approaches the North Carolina mountains Jonathan Drake/Reuters

Flood waters wash over Guy Ford Road bridge on the Watauga River as Hurricane Helene approaches the North Carolina mountains
Joe Raedle/Getty Images Flood waters in Tarpon Springs, FloridaJoe Raedle/Getty Images

Flood waters in Tarpon Springs, Florida
Erik Lesser/EPA-EFE Peachtree Park Apartments resident Candice Ocvil (left) and Jibri Tolenrow through flood waters from Peachtree Creek, GeorgiaErik Lesser/EPA-EFE

Peachtree Park Apartments resident Candice Ocvil (left) and Jibri Tolenrow KAYAK through flood waters in Peachtree Creek, Georgia

In Peachtree Creek some residents took to boats to navigate the flood water while another set about cleaning up.

Erik Lesser/EPA-EFE Peachtree Park Apartments resident Andrea Palese begins to clean upErik Lesser/EPA-EFE

Peachtree Park Apartments resident Andrea Palese begins to clean up
Tampa Bay Times/ZUMA Press Wire/REX/Shutterstock A home at Harbor Lights Club mobile home park in Pinellas County in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene Tampa Bay Times/ZUMA Press Wire/REX/Shutterstock

A home in Pinellas County, close to Tampa in Florida, was badly hit by the storm
Marco Bello/Reuters Power lines and fallen trees lay on the ground in Crawfordville, FloridaMarco Bello/Reuters

Power lines and fallen trees lay on the ground in Crawfordville, Florida

As the flood water receded along the west coast of Florida, it left behind damaged or destroyed buildings.

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 Cristóbal Herrera/EPA-EFE A destroyed building in Cedar Key, Florida Cristóbal Herrera/EPA-EFE
 Cristóbal Herrera/EPA-EFE View of damage left behind by Hurricane Helene in Cedar Key, Florida, Cristóbal Herrera/EPA-EFE
EPA View of damages left behind by Hurricane Helene in Keaton Beach, Florida.EPA

An oak tree fell on a home in Anderson, South Carolina.

 Ken Ruinard/The Anderson Independent Mail/USA TODAY NETWORK via REUTERS A large oak lies on a home in Anderson, South Carolina Ken Ruinard/The Anderson Independent Mail/USA TODAY NETWORK via REUTERS

Emergency teams, like these Marine deputies, were on hand to rescue those who required assistance.

Below an airboat transports residents rescued from flood waters due to storm surge in Crystal River.

 Luis Santana/Tampa Bay Times/ZUMA Press Wire/REX/Shutterstock An airboat transports residents rescued from flood waters due to storm surge in Crystal River
Luis Santana/Tampa Bay Times/ZUMA Press Wire/REX/Shutterstock

Off the coast of Florida, a man and his dog were rescued by the US Coast Guard, while in St Petersburg a capsized boat washed ashore.

US Coast Guard/Handout via REUTERS A US Coast Guard Air Station crew rescues a man and his dog during Hurricane Helene after his sailboat became disabled and started taking in water off Sanibel Island, Florida US Coast Guard/Handout via REUTERS
Joe Raedle/Getty Images A capsized boat washes ashore in Saint Petersburg, Florida
Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Even before its arrival, the storm had caused power outages for more than one million people and severe flooding in several areas.

Trucks belonging to Duke Energy were pictured in line waiting to repair damage once the storm had passed.

Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel/Tribune News Service via Getty Images Charles Starling, a lineman with Team Fishel, is pelted with rain as he walks by a row of electrical line trucks staged in a field in The Villages, Florida Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel/Tribune News Service via Getty Images

Ahead of the Hurricane many residents moved to shelters like this one at a school in Tallahassee.

Octavio Jones/Reuters Amber Hardin, 27, spends time with her dog Ducky while taking shelter from Hurricane Helene at Leon High School near downtown Tallahassee, Florida Octavio Jones/Reuters
Kathleen Flynn/Reuters Lindsay Smith, her four-month-old son Maze Crawford, and mother Dieonne Smith, wait for the arrival of Hurricane Helene at Lincoln High School, which was opened as a shelter in Tallahassee, Florida 
Kathleen Flynn/Reuters

President Joe Biden and state authorities had urged people to heed official evacuation warnings before Helene hit, though some chose to stay in their homes to wait out the storm.

People boarded up windows and prepared their properties as best they could.

 Cristóbal Herrera/EPA-EFE People boarding up windows to prepare for Hurricane Helene, in Old Town, Florida 
Cristóbal Herrera/EPA-EFE

Those who chose to stay stocked up with food to wait out the storm.

 Cristóbal Herrera/EPA-EFE People buying groceries at a convenience store with windows covered with plywood as the town prepares for Hurricane Helene, in Old Town, Florida 
Cristóbal Herrera/EPA-EFE

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Keir Starmer must set clear goals for UK-EU reset, warn diplomats

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Sir Keir Starmer must provide more clarity on his plans to improve the UK’s Brexit deal at a meeting next week with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, diplomats and analysts have warned.

The UK prime minister will meet von der Leyen in Brussels on Wednesday nearly three months after taking office amid continued divisions in his cabinet over whether to agree a youth mobility deal with the EU. This would enable young people to work and travel more freely in the UK and across the bloc.

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However, after a summer of summits, bilateral visits and warm words, senior EU diplomats have indicated they are growing impatient with what they see as the UK’s unwillingness to set out clear objectives for the relationship. 

“The melody is there, but now we have to start concentrating on writing the lyrics,” said one senior diplomat. A second was more direct: “The UK needs to tell us what they want,” they said.

Labour has said that it wants a deep rapprochement with the EU but has ruled out rejoining the single market or seeking a customs union with Europe, preferring to seek additions and improvements to the existing Trade and Co-operation Agreement.

These include a “veterinary agreement” to reduce trade barriers on agrifoods, easier access for service professionals and a deal to reduce paperwork for touring musicians and other artists.

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Analysts said Wednesday’s meeting was being seen in Brussels as a significant stepping stone to more detailed negotiations beyond Starmer’s general expressions of a desire for deeper co-operation with the EU on security, policing and trade.

“Starmer has to use the meeting to provide a greater, concrete sense of what the government actually wants to do. It can’t be another ‘mood music’ meeting — that won’t land well in Brussels,” said Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group political risk consultancy.

The prime minister will also see the presidents of the other big EU institutions, Charles Michel of the European Council of national leaders, and Roberta Metsola of the European parliament.

Differences have emerged between the two sides over the question of a youth mobility deal. Brussels has prioritised it as an important first expression of warmer ties but a deal has been rejected in London as appearing to be too close to the “free movement” of people that was ended by Brexit.

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This week Pedro Serrano, EU ambassador to the UK, played down the youth mobility issue ahead of the meeting, suggesting the scheme should resemble a “gap year” programme that would not grant European citizens the right to work in Britain. The commission proposal, now being revised by member states, suggested four years’ residence for the under-30s.

However, speaking after Serrano’s intervention, Starmer reiterated his position that he has “no plans for a youth mobility scheme” between the UK and EU. He added that he shared the view of Yvette Cooper, UK home secretary, that it risked undermining public perceptions of the government’s approach to immigration.

Cooper wants to cut down on legal migration and to focus on training young people in Britain to fill skills shortages.

Despite the differences, UK ministers say they believe “landing zones can be found” on the issue, while arguing it is important not to “lose sight of the big picture” as the EU and the UK jointly face the challenges of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, populism and irregular migration.

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UK chancellor Rachel Reeves is also pushing for an ambitious deal to reduce trade barriers with the EU, including telling the Financial Times before the election that she was willing to sign up to the Brussels rule book in certain sectors, including chemicals.

“Rachel is relaxed about that,” said one ally of the chancellor. “She doesn’t see any problem with being a rule taker in established industries.” The Starmer government is, however, still attached to the idea of Britain having regulatory flexibility in emerging technologies.

Reeves’s role in the forthcoming talks with the EU will be vital, given the chancellor’s focus on delivering the government’s overarching mission: boosting growth.

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Her allies say the chancellor believes a compromise can be reached with Brussels on a youth mobility scheme but she also supports Cooper’s position that it cannot look anything like the pre-Brexit free movement of people.

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‘Even if you don’t have kids, grab them!’ urges mum over FREE nappies deal as Morrison’s shoppers issue warning

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'Even if you don't have kids, grab them!' urges mum over FREE nappies deal as Morrison's shoppers issue warning

A MUM has urged shoppers to snap up free nappies “even if you don’t have kids” before Morrison’s shoppers issued a stark warning to parents.

Stephanie Pim shared a post on Facebook encouraging shoppers at the major supermarket chain to check the app to see if they’re eligible for free nappies.

The supermarket chain is handing out free nappies via the Morrison's card app

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The supermarket chain is handing out free nappies via the Morrison’s card app

She wrote: “If you have a Morrisons card check your app. Free nappies.”

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However, it’s not just those with children that can snap up the essential item.

The savvy mum added: “Even if you don’t have kids- grab them and pop in the food bank.”

Stephanie’s Facebook post received hundreds of likes and comments from fellow shoppers.

One user wrote: “Thank you for the heads up, it is on mine.”

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“I got them a couple of weeks ago,” said another.

However, many shoppers commented that even after signing up for the Morrison’s card and baby club, they still weren’t eligible for the free nappies.

This user commented: “I’m in baby club and not on mine.”

Another added: “Not on mine.”

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While a third explained: “Spoke to someone in Morrisons who said it’s potluck if you get them or not which seems silly as people who don’t have children get them and there are others out there with children who need this.”

Morrison shoppers have also complained about the lack of nappies in stock with many customers expressing frustration on social media.

One shopper wrote: “The problem is tons of people got this offer and my local Morrisons has never had the nappies in stock.”

It comes after several lucky shoppers were surprised to learn they could get free Pampers nappies from Tesco.

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One excited shopper shared her Tesco receipt on Facebook, revealing that she could choose from either a pack of 55 size ones, a pack of 44 size twos, or a pack of 40 size threes.

The savvy mum, who posted the find on social media, urged parents to check their receipts to see if they’re eligible.

Those lucky enough to be selected get a pack of Pampers nappies for free.

The popular brand costs around £10 normally.

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The mum’s Facebook post received numerous likes and comments with shoppers eager to get their hands on the free nappies.

One user commented: “If we go to Tesco. Always yes for a receipt.”

“Need to go to Tesco, worth seeing if we’re one of the lucky ones,” wrote another.

While a third said: “If anyone gets anything like this but doesn’t need them, put them in the Foodbank Collection boxes.”

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Other ways to save money when you shop

Cashback sites have amazing freebies for new customers, such as a takeaway from Just Eat or a Benefit beauty product.

Free gifts can change regularly so do check online to see what is being offered before you sign up.

Look for cashback on everything

You can claim on things such as MOTs, insurance, train tickets and holidays.

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It is worth looking around and what companies offer cashback schemes as you could be earning hundreds.

TopCashback reckons its average user makes £345 a year.

Save money at the supermarket

It’s a good idea to download apps Shopmium, Check-outSmart, Quidco ClickSnap, GreenJinn and TopCashback’s Snap and Save.

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Check out what is available, pick it up in-store and upload a photo of the receipt to get your cashback.

Combine cashback offers with promotions

Double savings and maximise cashback by matching third-party offers from cashback sites with in-store and online promotions.

You can’t always use discount codes with cashback, but you can take advantage of sales and offers such as free gifts.

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Download cashback notifiers

The website Honey has a great notifier.

It sits in your browser, pops up when you click on a website that offers cashback and searches for voucher codes.

How to get free nappies from Morrison’s

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Morrisons has re-launched its Baby Club offering parents advice, discounts and a free monthly newsletter throughout their parenting journey.

To join, your children must under the age of five.

As well as the points, you’ll also get a free pack of Nutmeg wipes for joining.

We’ve seen reductions of up to 59% on the typical prices, so it’s well worth checking your local supermarket for deals.

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You can sign up to the baby club online.

Be sure to also sign up and check the Morrison’s card app to see if you’re eligible for free nappies.

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Urgent hunt for gunman after three women caught in crossfire as shots fired from car – The Sun

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Urgent hunt for gunman after three women caught in crossfire as shots fired from car – The Sun

COPS have launched an urgent probe after three women were caught in crossfire following “shots being fired from a car”.

Emergency services raced the victims to hospital after horror unfolded on Frederick Street, in Wolverhampton, at around 11pm yesterday.

Three women were 'shot' in the drive-by on Frederick Street, in Wolverhampton

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Three women were ‘shot’ in the drive-by on Frederick Street, in Wolverhampton

West Midlands Police confirmed one woman still remains in hospital.

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She is in a stable condition, while the other two victims have since been discharged.

Officers are now trawling through hours of CCTV amid their manhunt.

They have launched an urgent appeal for any information regarding the suspected shooter.

A spokesperson for the force said: “An investigation has been launched after three people were injured in Wolverhampton yesterday (27 Sept).

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“We received reports of shots being fired from a car on Frederick Street at around 11pm.

“Three women were taken to hospital. Two women have since been discharged. A third woman remains in hospital in a stable condition.

“We are carrying out a CCTV trawl- and other enquiries – to identify those involved.

“We’re working to establish why this happened and we’d ask anyone with information to speak to us.

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“Such violence is unacceptable and won’t be tolerated.

“We will have an increased presence in the area to reassure the local community.

“You can contact us via Live Chat on our website, or by calling 101, and quote log 5427 of 27 September.

“Alternatively, ring independent charity Crimestoppers anonymously on 0800 555 111. Tell them what you know, not who you are.”

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Paying the price for European security

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This article is an onsite version of our Europe Express newsletter. Sign up here to get the newsletter sent straight to your inbox every weekday and Saturday morning. Explore all of our newsletters here

Welcome back. No discussion of Europe’s future omits to place defence and security at or near the top of the list of policymakers’ priorities. For Nato’s European members, the aim is to deliver not just higher but better-quality defence expenditure.

Still, the obstacles to an integrated European defence effort are formidable — and the question of how far to involve the EU remains contested. I’m at tony.barber@ft.com.

A ‘true defence union’

In 2014, when Nato governments pledged to spend at least 2 per cent of GDP annually on defence, only three countries met the target. This year, 23 of the alliance’s 32 states will do so, according to Nato estimates.

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Column chart of Number of Nato allies meeting 2% showing A record 23 countries hit defence spending target of 2% of GDP

In principle, then, there is progress. But the leaders who will run the EU’s Brussels-based institutions for the next five years say, correctly, that more needs to be done. They take the view that the EU can play a vital role in stimulating and co-ordinating an improved effort from national governments and defence industries.

Speaking at the European parliament in July, Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, said:

For the first time in decades our freedom is under threat . . . I believe now is therefore the time to build a true European defence union.

An early sign of her commitment was her nomination of former Lithuanian premier Andrius Kubilius as the EU’s first defence commissioner.

Andrius Kubilius
Andrius Kubilius, who will become the EU’s first defence commissioner this year if the European parliament approves, said the EU must prepare for Russian attack within a few years © AP

The EU legislature has still to confirm the appointment of Kubilius. But he has wasted no time in airing proposals that, if put into effect, would define his five-year term.

One is to make EU governments stockpile minimum levels of ammunition and other supplies. Another, more controversial idea is to draw on unused tens of billions of euros in the EU’s post-pandemic recovery fund to ramp up defence expenditure.

Vulnerable Europe

The sense of urgency is not misplaced.

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Writing for the US Council on Foreign Relations, Thomas Graham puts matters bluntly:

Currently, Europe is in no position to defend itself. Comfortable in its reliance on the US as its security guarantor after the cold war, it allowed its military forces and defence industries to atrophy to devote greater resources to raising standards of living.

As a result, European military forces cannot effectively operate without direction and material support from the US.

Now, Graham says, Europe has been “shocked out of its geopolitical slumber” by two developments: Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and a possible second term in the White House for Donald Trump.

Legal and constitutional constraints

Various difficulties stand in the way of an EU-led defence effort. In this collection of articles for the EconPol Forum, a Germany-based research network, one essay highlights the problem of lack of co-ordination:

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European states are not aligning their military spending priorities. For this reason, a simple increase in national defence spending does not automatically lead to a higher joint industrial and operational capacity of the EU but increases the risk of wasting the growing military resources.

Another article underlines the legal and constitutional constraints on the EU:

On the one hand, the EU treaties currently do not provide a fully fledged legal basis for a proper EU defence; on the other hand, several national constitutions (including the German, Italian, Irish and others) include clauses that limit what can be jointly achieved in terms of defence.

In this article for the UK in a Changing Europe think-tank, Delphine Deschaux-Dutard explains that, in spite of these constraints, the EU has launched some useful initiatives, mostly in response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

They include:

1.    The European Peace Facility, which finances the delivery of military equipment to Ukraine

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2.    The Act in Support of Ammunition Production, which promotes collective European procurement of ammunitions

3.    The European Defence Industry Reinforcement through Common Procurement Act, which sets up a fund to assist weapons purchases

Where to get the weapons?

Defence procurement poses a particular challenge for Europe. According to the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs, EU countries announced over €100bn of defence purchases in the 15 months after Russia’s attack on Ukraine in February 2022.

Of that sum, 78 per cent represented armaments from outside the EU. The major suppliers were the US (80 per cent of non-EU procurement), South Korea (13 per cent) and Israel and the UK (3 per cent each).

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The EU has programmes in place for a more self-reliant, collaborative European defence effort, especially in research and development, but the sums of money involved are small.

Defence industry executives and specialists recently drafted a report that highlighted shortcomings in the EU effort. “Companies are worried their collaborative outputs will be put on the shelf, never again to be looked at once EU funding runs dry,” Aurélie Pugnet wrote for the Euractiv news site.

Former Lithuanian defence vice minister Vilius Semeška, centre, meeting drone manufacturing company Baykar in June 2022. Baykar and Turkey’s defence industry agency donated a Bayraktar TB2 advanced combat drone to Lithuania for transfer to Ukraine, after Lithuanians crowdfunded about €6mn to buy it © Baykar Defense/AFP via Getty Ima

Who should run the show?

Not all EU governments are convinced that von der Leyen’s commission should be handed more control over European defence policy.

In this FT article, Paola Tamma and Henry Foy quoted a senior EU diplomat as saying: “We would not accept a power grab by the commission.”

For good measure, this unnamed policymaker dismissed the idea of commonly issued EU defence bonds as “pure fantasy”.

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Where will the money come from?

This raises the question of how to maintain or increase defence expenditure when budget deficits and public debt are already high in many EU countries after the 2008 financial crisis, the Covid pandemic and the subsequent energy crisis.

In a survey published this week by the World Economic Forum, some 53 per cent of chief economists identified public debt as a major risk to the stability of advanced economies.

The fiscal pressures facing EU governments are outlined in this authoritative European Central Bank study, which highlights the huge costs involved in addressing defence and security, demographic ageing, digitalisation and climate change. These are depicted in the ECB chart below.

However, the ECB makes the point that, if skilfully managed, higher defence spending could be beneficial for European economies and the public finances:

Additional defence spending could potentially increase GDP growth in the EU, with positive implications for fiscal sustainability in the longer term, if it (i) is concentrated in R&D-intensive investment, (ii) does not crowd out other productive investment, and (iii) focuses on EU-based sources.

EU budget

The fiscal constraints on defence spending are linked to the question of the EU’s next long-term budget, due to run from 2028 to 2034.

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Any hope that the EU’s 27 states will reach an early consensus on the budget has been complicated by the domestic political weakness of President Emmanuel Macron in France and the troubles of Germany’s three-party ruling coalition.

After conversations this month with high-level policymakers in Brussels, Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group consultancy concluded that the budget debate will be extremely fraught. An expansion of the EU’s Covid-era joint debt issuance is far from certain, he says:

Opposition to more common borrowing is now so entrenched that most senior EU officials do not believe it will happen in the short term.

The small window that existed to do something more quickly — essentially between now and Germany’s federal elections in September 2025 — has effectively been closed by . . . Macron’s early election gamble.

This both weakened Macron’s voice in Europe and arrested the momentum that was building behind the idea of more common financing for intra-EU security and defence.

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German blockage

To restore the momentum, there would need to be significant change in Germany, the EU’s largest economy.

After Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the creation of a €100bn fund for modernising Germany’s armed forces. But Rafał Ulatowski, writing for the Washington Quarterly, contends that there are good reasons to doubt whether this initiative has really transformed the country’s defence policy.

It’s not that Germany lacks the money. Rather, as Markus Jaeger argues in the Internationale Politik Quarterly, the problem is twofold.

First, Germany’s constitutionally enshrined “debt brake” imposes restrictions on deficit spending that hinder investment in defence.

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Second, there are political constraints — “less in the sense of a lack of public support and more in terms of a lack of political leadership”.

Scholz’s coalition is on the ropes amid a rise in support for radical parties of right and left that oppose both support for Ukraine and an expanded defence effort.

In conclusion, the outlook for European security will be shaped not only by November’s US election result. A great deal hangs, too, on Germany’s Bundestag election a year from now.

More on this topic

Power for progress: why the EU needs a new global strategy — an essay by Giovanni Grevi for the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel

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Tony’s picks of the week

  • Chinese merchants have flooded online marketplaces to sell US presidential election merchandise, as Democrats and Republicans seek to promote locally made products in a campaign marked by hostility towards China, the FT’s Sun Yu reports from New York

  • Tuvalu, the Pacific coral island chain state, hopes to establish a legal basis for its continued sovereignty even if it disappears beneath the waves because of climate change, Kirsty Needham reports for Reuters news agency

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Tiny restaurant around the corner from major English airport named ‘best hidden gem’ in the UK

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Lavang in Solihull has been crowned the number one hidden gem restaurant by Tripadvisor

A RESTAURANT in Solihull less than a 10 minute drive away from Birmingham Airport has been crowned best ‘hidden gem’ restaurant in Britain.

Lavang restaurant was awarded the accolade for its rave reviews from customers and its out the way location – nestled in between an electrical shop and a Chinese takeaway on a residential estate.

Lavang in Solihull has been crowned the number one hidden gem restaurant by Tripadvisor

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Lavang in Solihull has been crowned the number one hidden gem restaurant by TripadvisorCredit: Lavang
The restaurant's has a chic interior, with white blossom on the ceiling

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The restaurant’s has a chic interior, with white blossom on the ceilingCredit: Lavang

The award was given by Tripadvisor in its Travellers’ Choice Awards Best of the Best Restaurants 2024.

Winners of the awards were chosen by looking at the quality and quantity of reviews and ratings for restaurants from travellers over a 12-month period.

Lavang’s location may not be the most exotic, but its menu serves up a tonne of South East Asian delights.

There’s everything from flavourful tandoori dishes to delicious charcoal grills.

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And the prices on the menu are cheap too – poppadoms, a starter, curry, rice, naan, and chips for two people will set you back around £40.

Lavang’s chic and sophisticated style is also realised once you step inside.

The decor includes a beautiful white blossom ceiling, and customers describe everything as looking very clean and well presented.

Diners have also commented on Lavang’s staff being extremely friendly and efficient, with dietary requests always accommodated.

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The restaurant is even commended for having an “impeccable playlist”.

Mr Miah, Lavang’s owner, explained to Sun Travel why the restaurant is perfectly located for customers.

Frankies at the beach and Rye Rugby Club

He said: “Being located in Solihull; we’re in close proximity to both the NEC and Birmingham Airport – this in turn allows us to invite customers that are both local, and that are visiting the region.”

He added: “We are incredibly honoured and thrilled to receive this award. It’s a testament to the hard work and dedication of our entire team, who strive every day to provide exceptional food and service to our guests.

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“Winning this award reinforces our commitment to excellence and motivates us to continue elevating the dining experience at Lavang.

“We are extremely grateful to our loyal customers for their support, and we look forward to sharing many more memorable moments with them.”

One customer who visited the restaurant in August this year and shared their experience on Tripadvisor.

They wrote: “After finding this gem of a restaurant I haven’t dined anywhere else for the same type of cuisine! That’s saying something because I love going to different places.

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“Starters often taste better than the mains in a lot of restaurants; possibly because when you first sit down you’re hungry. Not here! Starters and mains are perfectly prepared each and every time; you truly savour and enjoy the whole meal.

“The level of service attention, helpfulness and friendliness is at exactly the right level creating a relaxed ambience of a great evening out.”

Another offered a tip with their review: “Do book as it’s always busy but this does not detract from its quality – it just adds to the enjoyable buzz of the restaurant.”

Two restaurants that missed out on the top spot on Tripadvisor’s hidden gems list were Sotto Sotto in Bath and Coronation Curry House in Bristol.

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Sotto Sotto is an Italian restaurant known for using high-quality ingredients and its romantic setting.

Tripadvisor Travellers’ Choice Awards Best of the Best Restaurants 2024 (UK)

Casual dining

  1. Makars Gourmet Mash Bar, Edinburgh
  2. La Boca Steakhouse, Doncaster
  3. The Shalimar, Matlock, Derbyshire
  4. Murphy’s Pakora Bar, Glasgow
  5. Lavang, Solihull
  6. Casa Brazilian Rodizio, York
  7. Howies Waterloo Place, Edinburgh
  8. Annies, Manchester
  9. Taipan Asia, Darlington
  10. Cappadocia Mediterranean Restaurant, Bath

Date night

  1. The Old Stamp House Restaurant, Ambleside, Cumbria
  2. Fifty, Looe, Cornwall
  3. Jackson’s Bistro, Bowness-on-Windermere, Cumbria
  4. Sutherland House Restaurant, Southwold, Suffolk
  5. The Bank Restaurant, Barmouth, North Wales
  6. Paul Ainsworth at No. 6, Padstow, Cornwall
  7. 1863 Restaurant, Pooley Bridge, Cumbria
  8. Restaurant Kensington, Lynton, Exmoor National Park
  9. The Really Wild Emporium, St. Davids, Pembrokeshire, Wales
  10. Pentonbridge Inn, Carlisle, Cumbria

Fine dining

  1. Northcote Restaurant, Langho, Lancashire
  2. The Old Stamp House Restaurant, Ambleside, Cumbria
  3. The Tudor Pass, Egham, Surrey
  4. Paul Ainsworth at No. 6, Padstow, Cornwall
  5. The Kitchin, Edinburgh
  6. Opheem, Birmingham
  7. Pentonbridge Inn, Carlisle, Cumbria
  8. Gidleigh Park Restaurant, Chagford, Dartmoor National Park
  9. Upstairs By Tom Shepherd, Lichfield, Staffordshire
  10. Adam’s, Birmingham

Hidden gems

  1. Lavang, Solihull
  2. Sotto Sotto, Bath
  3. Coronation Curry House, Bristol
  4. The Secret Italian, Barnsley
  5. Ciliegino Restaurant, Cardiff
  6. Casa Med Tapas, Bromsgrove, Worcestershire
  7. Chop Chop, London
  8. The Lazy Trout, Meerbrook, Staffordshire
  9. The Coconut Tree Cheltenham, CheltenhamGreen Gates Indian
  10. Restaurant Merchantcity, Glasgow

Quick bites

  1. Frankies At The Beach and Rye Rugby Club, Rye, East Sussex
  2. Pizza Union Spitalfields, London
  3. Please Sir !, Broadstairs, Kent
  4. Sausage Shack, Manchester
  5. Notorious BRG Canterbury, Kent
  6. Northern Soul Grilled Cheese, Manchester
  7. Middle Feast, York
  8. Magic Falafel, London
  9. Yanni’s Traditional Fish & Chips, Liverpool
  10. Goddards at Greenwich, London

Vegan & Vegetarian

  1. Twelve Eatery, Bournemouth
  2. David Bann, Edinburgh
  3. Vega, Tintagel, Cornwall
  4. Magic Falafel, London
  5. Hendersons – Eat Better Live Better, Edinburgh
  6. Tofu Vegan Islington, London
  7. Purezza, Manchester
  8. Herb, Leicester
  9. Mallow – Borough Market, London
  10. Herbies, Exeter

It’s located in a basement cellar with stone vaulted ceilings and bare brick walls, with candlelit tables. 

Coronation Curry House in Bristol has fun colourful decor and Indian artwork adorning the wall, and customers describe its chicken tikka as “comforting and tender”.

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There's lots to choose from on the menu, from flavourful tandoori dishes to delicious charcoal grill

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There’s lots to choose from on the menu, from flavourful tandoori dishes to delicious charcoal grillCredit: Lavang

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