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Conflicts, climate change and trade tensions mean central banks will need to raise interest rates “more forcefully” during future bouts of inflation to prevent price pressures taking hold, a senior official at the Bank for International Settlements has said.

Andréa Maechler, deputy general manager at the Basel-based umbrella body for central banks, said monetary policymakers could no longer afford to “look through” short-term price spikes caused by disruption to the supply side of the economy — such as crop failures, blockages in ports, swings in commodity prices or shutdowns at oil refineries.

Such shocks could become “larger and more frequent” because of rising geopolitical risk, more widespread floods and droughts and a “bumpy transition” to greener technologies, she said.

“This may require adjustments to the conduct of monetary policy,” Maechler said. “At times, forceful monetary tightening will be needed to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored.”

Her comments, at an event on Wednesday in London, came as the worsening conflict in the Middle East pushed up oil prices and economists warned strikes by US dockworkers could inflate goods prices if their actions lasted longer than a week.

She said ageing populations and rising barriers to globalisation would make it harder for economies to adjust to this kind of disruption, as labour shortages became more widespread and there was less scope “for international trade to act as a shock absorber of domestic inflationary pressures”.

Maechler highlighted trends observed after the coronavirus pandemic, arguing that once inflation had begun to rise, a further shock to oil or food prices can have an “outsize influence” on people’s trust in the stability of money. That response can lead to sudden changes in behaviour of households and businesses that leads to inflation becoming entrenched.

“All this means that inflation could become more volatile, raising the risk that economies transition more easily from self-stabilising low-inflation regimes to self-reinforcing high-inflation regimes,” she said.

The BIS has long been a hawkish voice, warning central banks as early as 2010 of the dangers of adopting ultra-low interest rates for too long, a warning delivered shortly before the eurozone debt crisis forced the European Central Bank to cut rates further into negative territory for the best part of a decade.

But its views have gained currency over the past few years as central banks raised interest rates to their highest levels since the global financial crisis to tame inflation.

Prices surged in 2022 on the back of pent-up demand after Covid-19, global supply chain disruptions and higher energy prices caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Although the US Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of England are increasingly confident inflation is subsiding, potentially enabling them to continue cutting rates in the coming months, policymakers have signalled they do not expect interest rates to return to pre-pandemic lows.

SPLASHING out on a coffee pick-me-up doesn’t need to cost as much as you think it does.

Dee Bespalova, named the best Starbucks barista in the UK, has shared her top tips on how to save money – including the secret to free refills.

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Star barista Dee was awarded after taking on her fellow Starbucks coffee connoisseurs from up and down the country.

She has now shared her top tips for saving money at Starbucks – and who better to get the inside information from?

Buying coffee on the go can be shockingly expensive when added up over time.

According to Wholesale Coffee Co, Brits spend on average £5.50 per week on coffee, which is £286 a year.

And on average, people who buy a Starbucks three times a week spending approximately £54 a month, which is a whopping £648 annually.

At The Sun, we always recommend you make coffee from home to save money.

For example, with Tesco Clubcard prices you can buy 6 sachets of Costa Barista Creations in any flavour for £1.75 – that’s 30p a coffee.

Meanwhile, a Starbucks can typically set you back around £4.50 for one drink, or up to £6.55 for special recipes.

Starbucks prices change based on availability, and between locations.

However, we also know that, sometimes, a DIY coffee from home isn’t quite as exciting as a Starbucks on the go.

And with experts like Dee making the coffee, sometimes it’s okay to spend a little extra on a hot drink you know you’ll love.

For this reason, we put together Dee’s top tips for enjoying a Starbucks the savvy way – so you don’t have to miss out on that coffee catch up with friends.

By combining all of these tips across the year, a person who drinks three coffees a week and spends £648 annually will save £343.20.

The amount you save will vary depending on how much you typically spend of course.

GET FREE REFILLS – £271.20

One of the most exciting tips Dee whispered to The Sun was that filter coffee-drinkers are actually able to get refills for free.

She said: “Whilst lattes and flat whites are many people’s favourites, if your usual order is a black coffee, or a coffee with just a splash of milk, consider asking whether your local store offers filter coffee, which you can swap out for your americano and enjoy a free refill.”

A filter coffee at Starbucks is easy on the wallet too, starting at just £1.95. 

If you were to buy two americanos (£3.80 each), this would cost you £7.60.

If you did this once a week for a year, you would rack up a spending of £364.80.

Instead, you could save a total of £5.65 a visit by ordering a filter coffee and getting a free refill instead.

If you did this once a week for a year instead, you’d spend £93.60 a year – saving £271.20 across the year just by swapping for filter coffee.

Dee recommends going up and asking your barista if it offers filter coffees, as they are not in all stores and might not always be on the menu at the tills where you’ll usually find the latest additions and seasonal drinks on show.

You’ll need to purchase the first drink to have in to then qualify for a free tall refill.

SWAP SYRUPS – £72

When you fancy your coffee with a little twist, a syrup will usually do the trick – but if you are looking to save, there is a cheaper option.

You can swap out the dairy milk for an alternative to bring a different flavour to your drink.  

According to Dee, dairy alternatives at Starbucks are offered at no extra charge.

Customers can request oat, soy, almond or coconut milk.

“But if you’re a bit stuck for where to start, choose a drink with a dairy alternative as standard”, she told The Sun.

“For example, the Iced Brown Sugar Oat Shaken Espresso is designed to work best with the delicious roast nutty flavours of oat dairy alternative.”

Starbucks is one of very few chains which offers completely free milk alternatives.

In Costa for instance, soya is the only non-dairy milk you can buy free of charge. For oat or coconut, the customer must spend 45p.

A shot of syrup at Starbucks typically costs 50p, so you can save £1.50 a week based on having three drinks a week on average – that’s £6 a month, and £72 a year.

Of course, keep in mind that out calculations are based three coffees a week – the amount you save will vary based on how much you usually spend on coffee.

GET FREEBIES WITH STARBUCKS REWARDS – £72

Regular Starbucks customers can download the Starbucks app and collect points, which can be used to gain free rewards.

Dee said: “It pays to be loyal and Starbucks Rewards is quick and easy to use.”

Customers can collect three stars for every £1 spent, and when you reach 150 stars, you’ll get a free drink of any size.

If customers reach 450 stars, they will be rewarded with Gold status.

This means extra shots of espresso, selected syrups and whipped cream are all on the house. 

Each of these extras usually cost 50p, meaning you could save £s off a single purchase.

If you cashed in on these extras three times a week, you’d save £1.50 – that’s £6 a month, and £72 a year.

To begin collecting rewards, download the Starbucks app and sign up with your email address.

However, keep in mind that with all schemes such as these, the goal of the company is to get you spending more money.

If you become a rewards member, be sure to use it as a perk, and not an excuse to buy more coffees when you’re out of the house – otherwise you will lose money rather than saving it.

Also remember that having apps and email notifications from businesses like Starbucks may subconsciously encourage you to spend more money, so be mindful of marketing influences.

In moderation, rewards are much more enjoyable.

To find the nearest Starbucks near you, visit their website.

Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

Plus, you can join our Sun Money Chats and Tips Facebook group to share your tips and stories

According to information from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, Apple plans to launch a dedicated smart home operating system, rumored to be named homeOS.

This operating system is likely to play a central role in future Apple devices aimed at smart homes, including a range of smart displays.

The most surprising news is that Apple is already working on two different smart screens.

The first model is expected to be a more affordable version, which could hit the market as early as next year.

This display will integrate with Apple apps such as Calendar, Notes, and Home, offering easy access to household smart functions.

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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.

LVMH will become a top sponsor of car racing franchise Formula One as the leading luxury group pushes further into the world of sport.

The agreement will start in 2025 and run for a decade, LVMH said on Wednesday. The deal is worth just under €100mn per year, according to two people with knowledge of the arrangement.

It will involve several of Bernard Arnault’s luxury empire’s top brands including Louis Vuitton, the world’s biggest luxury brand by sales, drinks division Moët Hennessy and watchmaker Tag Heuer.

The deal was led by Frédéric Arnault, the second youngest of the billionaire patriarch’s five children, who was promoted to head LVMH’s watchmaking division at the start of the year.

He was previously chief executive of Tag Heuer and is a graduate of France’s top engineering school Ecole Polytechnique, like his father.

“The opportunity to scale our commercial arrangements is emblematic of the vision we have for Formula 1 as the business continues to grow . . . We look forward to working with Bernard and Frédéric Arnault in the years to come,” said Greg Maffei, president and chief executive of Formula 1 owner Liberty Media.

Luxury groups have increasingly targeted sports to grow their audience and popularity. While luxury has long been associated with elite sports like show jumping and tennis, links with more mainstream sports like basketball and football are becoming more frequent.

The French group’s deeper foray into the world of racing follows its high profile sponsorship of the Paris Olympics, where bars flowed with Moët Hennessy drinks and athletes were awarded medals made by LVMH-owned jeweller Chaumet.

However, a several minutes long sequence in the opening ceremony centred around monogrammed Louis Vuitton trunks raised some eyebrows as sponsors pushed into previously ad-free spaces in the global sporting event.

Earlier this year LVMH launched a new Louis Vuitton ad campaign featuring tennis stars Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal hiking in the Italian Dolomites. It was a new iteration of a 2022 campaign featuring footballers Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi playing chess.

Formula One, meanwhile, has been on a years-long push into new markets and new audiences. Since US-based Liberty Media acquired it for $8bn in 2017, the racing calendar has expanded to flashy locales in Miami and Las Vegas, and Netflix docu-series Drive to Survive has helped boost viewership.

The share of female F1 fans has risen to 40 per cent, from 32 per cent in 2018, helping to attract women-focused sponsors. Earlier this year, Charlotte Tilbury cosmetics debuted the first sport sponsorship of its own with the F1 Academy.

All five Arnault children have operational roles within family-controlled LVMH. All except the youngest, Jean, have seats on the group’s board. Frédéric and Alexandre, an executive at jeweller Tiffany, joined their siblings on the board earlier this year.

Additional reporting by Sara Germano

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Kemi Badenoch needed a barnstorming leadership speech to pull her campaign back from the brink on the final day of the Conservative conference. This wasn’t it. Instead, the best performer at the little-noticed finale in Birmingham was James Cleverly, whose address sparked new interest in his so far workaday bid.

Away from the real news in the Tory bubble, Badenoch has had quite the week with eye-catching pronouncements that included calling care workers bottom-wipers, saying up to 50,000 civil servants should be locked up for leaking secrets (a joke, apparently), and questioning maternity pay and the minimum wage. Her allies say her words are sometimes catching up with her thoughts, so a scripted speech on stage should’ve fixed that, right?

Instead, it showed us her real preoccupations: social media and free speech, alongside gender and culture wars and a resolute refusal to do any policy. She received a warm welcome in the hall as she lauded the 80s as a “golden age of wealth creation” but for some MPs, she’s a bridge too far. “Honesty is all well and good, but it has its limits,” one Tory MP told i. They added she would “struggle to put on more numbers” in terms of backing from fellow MPs.

Leadership frontrunner Robert Jenrick also presented a wall of words to the delegates, who deserve a sticker for having survived a four-day overload of speeches and rallies. Meanwhile Tom Tugendhat delivered his thoughtful analysis of what went wrong for the party. Unluckily for him, it turns out that although the Tories claimed they wanted a thorough election post-mortem, no one really did. The members want cheerfulness again, and so the final day belonged to Cleverly whose straightforward messaging and nice-guy persona made him the everyman the members want to trust. He’s not put a foot wrong this week and his lieutenants will be pointing out to MPs that he’s the safe choice.

The former home secretary could end up being the tortoise of this race, slowly overtaking Badenoch and Jenrick’s hares. On Wednesday, momentum palpably shifted behind him. When MPs vote next week to whittle down the four candidates to two, an increasingly likely outcome is Jenrick v Cleverly. After that, Cleverly’s popularity with the grassroots – who make the final decision – may take him all the way to becoming leader.

There’s no doubt Tories in the conference hall had a soft spot for Cleverly; he was playing to a warm crowd. Having done his light-hearted turn earlier in the week, on Wednesday he gave a serious but imperfect speech.

“I know what it’s like to take risks, to run a small business, to work crazy hours to put food on the table, to stumble, to fall, but to get up again. And again. And again,” he said, in one of his better lines. But unlike his fellow speech-makers he managed to invoke both light and shade. He also managed a few digs at them. A self-deprecating joke about his service record was a clear jibe at rival Tugendhat, who has made much of his military career.

“I don’t pretend to be a war hero, but I did command a battery in Bristol of around 100 volunteers. And then one day, I got the call. I got mobilised. I thought I was going to Basra or Baghdad, but I was sent to Luton,” Cleverly told the hall to laughter. A namecheck for former US President Ronald Reagan also landed well as it made a change from the repetitive use of Margaret Thatcher or Winston Churchill. His central policies: lowering taxes and abolishing stamp duty by bringing down the welfare bill, also hit the right notes with the crowd.

His best jibes were aimed at Jenrick and Badenoch, saying the Tories shouldn’t be a “pale imitation of anyone else” by aping Reform UK’s positions on immigration but his best line came when he told them: “Let’s be more normal.” You could almost hear the activists breathe a sigh of relief.

But there was a moment of overblown self-regard on his record as foreign secretary. “In Beijing, I told the Chinese foreign minister TO HIS FACE not to invade Taiwan,” he boasted. And – QED – Taiwan hasn’t been invaded yet.

By the end, his address was dragging. “I don’t lose,” he concluded, a hostage to fortune destined for an internet meme-maker. But this was his moment; exiting the stage he paused a while to absorb the applause, reluctant to leave. It wasn’t a brilliant speech – none of them were – but it may be enough. He got the biggest standing ovation and afterwards there were positive comments from Tory observers.

“I’ve been quite sceptical so far but if he wins I would be perfectly happy; he’ll do,” one Tory member told i after the speech. Another activist was more enthusiastic: “He’s definitely now in my top two.”

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Jenrick, who came third in the speech order, stuck to his right-wing messaging centred around delivering a “new Conservative Party” and gave a sombre assessment of the state of modern Britain. He tried a few jokes too, some of which landed better than others. Ed Miliband, he said, was “Wallace without his Gromit”; David Lammy is proof that “there is a more annoying LBC presenter than James O’Brien”. Sir Keir Starmer meanwhile “may take the knee but he will never take the stand. He doesn’t even take the stand anymore at the football!” Jenrick waved up at the hall where the stand would be. Reader, Starmer was not there. This speech wasn’t going to win over any centrists.

Tugendhat, who went first and had to warm up the crowd, gave a low-energy speech promising to make people “proud to vote Conservative again” by ending “empty promises, cheap rhetoric or government by management consultancy”. While he undoubtedly has a lot to offer with a proven intellect, charm and a sense of humour, it didn’t come across on stage. He talked up his military service in Iraq and Afghanistan, attacked “selfish and greedy” Labour and called for a “New Conservative Revolution”, which sounds like a contradiction in terms but essentially means lower taxes, more nuclear power and capping immigration.

In his introductory video, there were some bludgeoning pointers to his military background, with shots of a massive phallic cannon and cutaway image of MI6, perhaps hoping that would persuade us he was once a spy. Ironically, here was the candidate with the most macho background but who came across as the most beta on stage. His lecture-as-speech sounded like a quartermaster explaining more in sorrow than in anger that a new recruit’s shoes aren’t shiny enough. With both hands in the air in a gesture that could have been seen as triumph or defeat, he left the stage to cheers from his supporters. It won’t be enough. Like a five-day old helium balloon, his support slowly deflated, ebbed – and vanished.

After all four candidates had finished, they gathered on the stage for a final round of applause. Like a band suffering musical differences, none of them would look each other in the eye. Tugendhat blew a kiss to a fan, Badenoch waved. Jenrick stood firm, Cleverly smiled and pointed. There is a long way to go to get whoever wins to public attention again.

There they stood in Birmingham; the four horsemen of the irrelevance, as the world burns elsewhere.