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Unpacking Heat Exposure and Immigration

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Unpacking Heat Exposure and Immigration

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Scorched States and the Fight for Workers’ Rights: Unpacking Heat Exposure and Immigration Narratives



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In the first half of the show, cohost Eleanor Goldfield speaks with lawyer and worker health and safety advocate for Public Citizen’s Congress watch division, Juley Fulcher about her recent report, Scorched States, an expose of the inadequate or wholly lacking protections for workers facing extreme heat in the age of climate chaos. Juley describes the legislative morass standing in the way of workers rights, and how states like Florida and Texas have actually made it illegal to protect workers. Next up, cohosts Mickey Huff and Eleanor Goldfield highlight the importance of critical media literacy vis a vis how media and our government talk about immigration. Beware the dog whistle from both parties and establishment press, and consider the realities of those caught in the snares of our militarized southern border.

 

Video of the Interview with Juley Fulcher

 

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Video of the Interview with Eleanor Goldfield and Mickey Huff

 

Below is a Rough Transcript of the Interview with Juley Fulcher

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Eleanor Goldfield: Thanks everyone for joining us at the Project Censored Radio Show. We’re very glad to welcome to the show Juley Fulcher, who’s a worker health, and safety advocate for Public Citizens Congress Watch Division.

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She’s a lawyer and a psychologist who has worked for 20 years as a policy expert in Washington, D.C., the belly of the beast. Juley, thanks so much for joining us.

Juley Fulcher: Happy to be here.

Eleanor Goldfield: So I wanted to give folks some context of this report, and you can find the report up at citizen.org. It’s a very powerful report called Scorched States, and I just want to share some findings from that that was released in May of this year.

It’s basically a report card on state laws protecting workers from heat. So, as, as pointed out in this report, globally, nearly half a million people die each year because of extreme heat. In 2023, the Northern Hemisphere experienced its hottest summer in 2,000 years. As many as 2,000 workers die, and 170,000 workers are injured from laboring in extreme heat every year in the United States.

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Worker heat stress tragedies disproportionately strike workers who are poor, black, and brown, like any other stressors in our white supremacist capitalist system.

So, with that framework, Juley, I want to first highlight something that you show in the report, that only five states out of the 50, have some workplace heat stress rules in place.

That’s California, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Minnesota. And listeners who know geography might notice that three of those states are in the northernmost part of the country, and totally absent are southern states.

So, Juley, could you talk about, in some more broad strokes, could you talk a little bit about what kind of heat legislation these five states have, and if you feel that it is enough to deal with this climate chaos that we’re experiencing right now?

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Juley Fulcher: Well, the protections that workers have in those five states vary quite a bit.

We do have rules in Oregon and California that are particularly strong. They cover both indoor and outdoor workers and, actually California has just recently begun to cover indoor workers. They’ve covered outdoor workers since 2005, but both Oregon and California have very strong rules that are clear about what it is that employers need to do, specifically making sure that workers are hydrated and have adequate time for cool down breaks, that new workers are acclimatized during their first week so that it’s not overwehlming, that all workers and managers get trained on the dangers of heat stress and how to recognize heat illness when it starts to occur, how to respond effectively.

And so those states have served as a great model for something that should be done, at least in terms of the structure of the rule itself.

Washington state also has a good rule in general, although it only covers outdoor workers. Minnesota, unfortunately, is a very brief rule and it only covers indoor workers. Colorado is a rule that only covers agriculture workers, but it does have some good items in it that are protective of workers.

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Eleanor Goldfield: And I’m curious, I mean, this might be more of a psychological question, but it seems to me that it would just be easier to offer up a kind of sweeping legislation that says, okay, workers, whether they’re indoor, outdoor, whatever the case may be, you are protected, here are the protections, whether they be water breaks or ensuring that you have access to cool spaces, rather than nitpicking, like, oh, 85 degrees and you’re outside and there’s shade, it’s like, why is there so much distinction and little nitpicking red tape here?

Juley Fulcher: Well, some of it has to do with the obvious kind of push and pull that happens when they’re developing a rule from stakeholders on both sides, those advocates working on behalf of workers and the workers themselves, and then some of the industry groups that struggle to try to minimize any regulation of workplaces.

And so that’s where some of it comes from, but a lot of it is there because specificity is necessary in order to get employers to do what needs to be done. This is a complex issue and it’s something that we can’t expect every individual employer, especially small businesses to become experts on and figure out all of those things. And that’s why it’s very helpful to have things like trigger temperatures where it says, you know when it’s above this temperature you do this and if it reaches this temperature you do that.

So, some of it is actually very helpful to the employers, meaning it’s also very helpful to the workers because it gets implemented correctly.

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Eleanor Goldfield: And one of the things that you mentioned there in the report is this acclimatization, the importance of making sure that people can get used to a situation.

And I thought about that because I myself am very sensitive to heat. I was not made for the age of climate change. And in the past I have worked in audio tech. And there have been some moments, particularly when it’s outside where other people seem to be doing fine, but I am just about, I can feel that I’m very unsteady on my feet.

How does that play into that kind of legislation? The kind of personal experiences that somebody might have if they’re more sensitive to the heat, or perhaps there’s a disability that makes them more likely to suffer from heat exhaustion. Where does, where would that fit in?

Juley Fulcher: Well, obviously, that’s something very difficult to account for. We’re all individuals. We all have different sort of physical capabilities when it comes to heat, different sensitivities. And it’s not something that an employer can adequately address. We can’t sort of figure out where every individual person’s needs are and make sure that they each have the different kinds of things they might need to be protected.

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Instead, what we create in these rules is something that would cover the average person, and make sure that they are protected from the heat. But something like acclimatization does recognize that there is some degree of tolerance that can be developed in order to get you into a condition for working in the heat.

That’s why we say for the first week or so, you should have increasing amounts of time working in the heat in order to get to a point where you’re working full day. That’s so critically important because we found that 70 percent of the people who die of heat stress in the workplace die during the first week of work.

Juley Fulcher: And another very key aspect to that is it’s not just about building up tolerance, it’s about building up recognition of what your body can and can’t do under those circumstances, recognizing the symptoms of onset of heat illness, so that you’re able to slow down, drink water, do what you need to do in order to try to keep that under control and to identify it for someone else to help if you’re in a situation that requires medical assistance.

So all of those things are important. And I should note, when I say building up a tolerance. No one is ever going to be able to build up enough tolerance to work in 90 or 100 degree heat all day long without any kind of breaks or water or anything like that. The body just isn’t capable of that. But we can get ourselves in a little bit better position than we were if we were used to sitting at a desk job in the air conditioning.

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Eleanor Goldfield: Right. And, I think in a perfect world, there would be employers who recognize the different needs of their employees and the like, but that’s a different conversation for a different day. I also wanna talk about some history here, because you also outline in the report

already 50 years ago, there was a call by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health to OSHA to adopt an occupational heat standard, and there still isn’t one. And it’s not like OSHA hasn’t adopted other standards in the past 50 years, though as I’ve mentioned, I’d argue that we’re still a long ways away from having generally just workplaces, but, so Juley, what gives here, why is the heat standard such an impossible get for OSHA?

Juley Fulcher: Well, you know, it has to do with a couple of different things. OSHA is only able to do its job if it’s given the kind of resources and support needed to do its job from Congress. Congress passed the law that created OSHA and identified what their responsibilities were. They also need to make sure that OSHA has the kind of funding it needs for adequate personnel to do what Congress has asked it to do. And right now, they are extremely under resourced. They have been from the beginning. And that means we have very little ability to actually get out and do a lot of investigation or enforcement of rules that are created.

It also means that we have less staff that are able to devote time to developing new standards. And then that’s complicated by the fact that legislative language has been created at various points across time that requires OSHA to jump through more and more hoops in order to get a rule created.

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And it’s resulted in taking an average of seven to eight years for OSHA to create a rule from start to finish. And it’s also been the case that OSHA has had limited ability to work on more than one rule at a time. So if you look at the rules that OSHA has created in the 50 years since it itself was created, it’s actually a relatively small number of rules for that time period, and a lot of things that haven’t been effectively addressed.

And all of this is a big reason for it. It’s just not something that OSHA can easily and quickly accomplish. And the changing winds in the White House change priorities within each administration, which also are going to interfere with the ability to go through a seven to eight year process.

So yes, 50 years before, ultimately we saw a heat standard be prioritized by the Biden administration so that it could be one of the ones that actually gets worked on, and they’ve been jumping through those hoops to get through the process they need to get through to finish up. They have reached a point where they have now created a proposed rule, that rule will go for hearings and public comment before they’re able to create a final rule which at this point won’t be issued until at least 2026.

So it’s a long process. It’s a long time coming. There’s no way it ever should have taken this long. And yeah, here we are and we just need to all work as fast as we can to get some protection for workers nationwide.

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Eleanor Goldfield: And how do you feel about this rule that’s working its way through hoops at the moment?

How do you feel about it as it’s written right now?

Juley Fulcher: The proposal that they’ve written is a strong one. It addresses all the areas of recommendation that come from science, and worker health experts and from the recommendations that have come from the CDC themselves.

So it is something that the advocacy world, the worker rights and protection world are very satisfied with. And, you know, are there things that we would like to see as well? Yes. But in general, this is a very good proposal, a very good standard that advocates would be happy if it were implemented tomorrow.

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Eleanor Goldfield: Wouldn’t it be nice, especially considering it’s 100 degrees right now in Baltimore, and I can only imagine what it is in the rest of the country, particularly south of where I am. And I want to talk a little bit about the attacks on heat legislation, i.e. ensuring there’s no protection for workers.

And two of the hottest, if not the hottest states in the country, if you look at Public Citizen, and you have also released a very helpful map, where it’s mapping heat alerts. Texas is predominantly dark red, meaning that there were more than 60 heat alerts in most of those counties in a five month period last year.

So Texas and Florida have passed legislation that prohibits protection of workers. Could you talk a little bit more about this specifically?

Juley Fulcher: Sure. The first to get passed was the Texas bill, which is referred to as the Texas Death Star bill. It is broader than just preventing protections for workers against heat.

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It actually prevents local governments from creating any kind of, um, Regulations for employers across sort of a broad range of categories, so not just labor related. It prohibits the local areas from creating these kinds of protections, although it does within the legislation specifically point out that employers can’t be required to give workers breaks. It’s an extremely frustrating piece of legislation, not just for those who work on protecting workers from heat stress, but for many others that are working on protection.

Texas is a very big state. They have 220 counties. It is an area where different kinds of needs exist in different parts of the states. And local governments are elected for a reason. They’re there because they want to protect the needs of their local area. So prohibiting them from stepping in and trying to provide the kinds of protections that the workers in their local jurisdiction need is really, you know, both ridiculous and completely against any principles of making sure that those workers get what they need.

And the idea that was presented from Texas as to why they were doing this was that they wanted to make sure that there was consistency across the state so that, for instance, if you have a chain business where you source in multiple counties that they would all be dealing with the same kinds of rules, same standards that they have to meet.

Unfortunately, we know that first of all, that the needs are different in different counties. But also we know that Texas has never taken any steps as a state to put in protections for workers against heat stress. So, you know, it’s difficult to argue that they’re just trying to make sure there’s consistency if they’re also not taking steps to do anything that needs to be done at the state level.

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The second state to jump in and do this was Florida. And what they did was monstrous. It was even more, very specific attack on protecting workers from heat stress. Miami Dade County, which is in the southern tip of Florida and is the hottest area of Florida, the area of Florida that received the most heat alerts last year and every year, was working on a standard to protect workers from heat and they were a few weeks away from passing that through their oversight board, and getting it implemented. That’s when the state legislature stepped in to create a bill that would very specifically prohibit local jurisdictions from requiring employers to do anything to protect workers from heat.

Florida went so far as to specifically lay out all of the items that were listed in the protections from the Miami Dade proposed rule. These are the same protections that are very broadly recommended by what we know of science and policy.

It’s been said that specifically you can’t require employers to have water for the workers or to provide them with any kind of breaks in a shaded or cool space. It prevents employers from putting in acclimatization procedures. It prevents any requirement that employers have education or training for their workers or their managers. It even prevents putting up any kind of signs or passing out any kind of written material to workers on the issue. and, most frustratingly, most offensively, it prohibits any requirement for employers to have first aid on hand or emergency response procedures in place for what they will do when there is a heat stress emergency.

So it’s, almost impossible for the Florida legislature to credibly claim that this was all about just getting consistency among the jurisdictions in terms of the way that employers must treat their workers. This very specifically targeted heat stress, It very specifically targeted a proposed standard that was about to be implemented in Miami Dade.

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And the bill went so far as to prohibit the state legislature in Florida from creating a heat standard to protect the workers statewide for the next two years.

Eleanor Goldfield: That is so arbitrary and so cruel. I’m also curious, because it seems like there are, even with what OSHA has in place, which isn’t a lot, it seems like there would be things that clash with this kind of legislation, like the idea of not having first aid available.

Thankfully I’ve never had to work in Florida, but in other states that I’ve worked in, you have to have first aid available. So I’m curious if there are existing protections that clash with that kind of legislation or existing protections that could allow states or even workers to bring this and say that, hey, existing OSHA protections say that you have to include this in how you care for your workers.

Is there anything like that?

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Juley Fulcher: Well, there are parts of the federal standards that exist through OSHA that can be applicable. As you said, employers are required to have certain kinds of first aid available. Those requirements were created through other standards that focused on things like construction injuries or something of the like.

And those kinds of first aid kits and response systems are specific to those kinds of injuries, and illnesses that we might expect from something like, you know, chemical use or something like that. They do not necessarily have the kinds of things that would be necessary to deal with someone who’s experiencing heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

There’s nothing that’s required to be in those kits to address that. And similarly when it comes to emergency response, we obviously want to call an ambulance when medical attention is needed, and in most cases it involves things like, don’t move the injured worker while you wait for the ambulance, and minimal things that you should be doing to keep that worker from becoming further injured, and of course to do things to stop bleeding if that’s the case, but they don’t have specific procedures about heat, which are critically important.

When your body starts to overheat and your cooling systems, your natural cooling systems start to break down and are unable to keep up, you can move from heat exhaustion to heat stroke in 15 minutes or less.

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So there is no time to just sit and wait until the emergency responders arrive. There has to be emergency help on site. I’m not talking about complex things. These are things that everybody can learn about, you know, dragging someone into the shade or in inside to an air conditioned space, using ice packs to try to cool them down, especially under the armpits and in the groin area. And, making sure that you’re using a cool cloth on their forehead and around their neck, not forcing them to drink a lot of water, because that can create its own problems.

So those kinds of things are not built into the procedures that are already required with respect to first aid through OSHA.

There’s one other, one other thing that is important to know as well. And that is that OSHA does not have requirements for breaks during work, which is absolutely mind boggling when you think about it, because regardless of experiencing heat stress, workers need breaks in order to be able to work, physically recover from whatever it is they’re experiencing, including just the physicality of their work, and the mental pressures and focus that are required for their work. And being able to have those breaks enables them to catch up and be productive again. The fact that OSHA hasn’t gotten around to even requiring breaks is kind of insane.

Eleanor Goldfield: Yeah, it’s very insane. Although I guess it’s not that surprising considering the labor history of this country and how hard it’s tried to specifically target those speaking up for workers, it really shouldn’t, like the saying goes, if you know the history, then the present isn’t that shocking.

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And I’m curious, with regards to people that are fighting on this issue, Public Citizen also has something called the Heat Stress Network, which is a campaign with over 120 organizations that have joined in support for worker heat protections. Juley, could you talk a little bit more about this campaign and specifically what kind of demands and goals y’all have?

Juley Fulcher: Well, the organizations that are involved actually have a variety of kinds of issues they focus on, many of them not related to heat stress, but we all have in common that desire and need to address heat stress and workers. The organizations within the network come from workers rights and unions, and also come from the climate world, and come from health world, you know, scientific experts in worker health and safety, and even some others who are faith based and you know, just lots and lots of organizations who all recognize this problem, and all want to see it get effectively addressed.

And we know that when it comes to working on anything in Washington, the broader range of people you have who are fighting for something, the more likely it is that that is to occur. And that’s the purpose of bringing these folks together. And our goal has been to try to get protections in place and enforceable at OSHA.

We’ve used multiple tactics to try to do that, including obviously petitioning OSHA directly to create a rule. We’ve also worked on trying to get legislation passed in Congress, and continue to work on that, because as I said, we’re still a couple of years away from seeing a final rule come out from OSHA.

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Whereas Congress could direct OSHA to issue an interim heat standard tomorrow, an immediately enforceable standard that could be protecting the workers right now in this 100 degree heat. And so this legislation we’re working on in Congress would do that, would direct OSHA to create this interim heat standard that would be in place tomorrow until a final standard is issued, whether that’s two years from now or 20 years away from now, there would be something protective in place.

And we have 110 co sponsors of the legislation in the House. We have 20 co sponsors in the Senate. We continue to work on that and will continue to work on that even as OSHA is working on trying to finalize their rule.

So that’s the kind of advocacy that we as a broad network are able to provide. Also as a broad network, we’re able to bring in information and expertise on a lot of different ways that this impacts workers. We have all sorts of worker groups and unions that focus on specific kinds of employment, construction, farm workers, restaurant workers, bricklayers, you know, you name it, they’re there and are helping us understand the individual issues in their types of work, and, you know, also giving us a basis for making sure that whatever is in the standard does apply across the board in a way that’s going to equally protect all of those types of workers.

Eleanor Goldfield: And this kind of interim OSHA protection, that would override what Florida and Texas have done, correct?

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Juley Fulcher: Yes, it will. Anytime OSHA puts a standard in place, it becomes the workplace standard for all private employers throughout the country. An individual state can create a rule that is stronger than the standard put out by the federal OSHA, but they cannot put out anything that is weaker.

So that means that any attempts to block those kinds of protections will immediately evaporate because they will be required to follow the federal OSHA standard in Texas and in Florida. And it also means that even a few of these state rules that already exist will have to be strengthened to meet the heat federal heat standard or exceeded, if that’s what they choose to do.

Eleanor Goldfield: And I’m just curious. I mean, it’s hard to think right now of a time when it will be cold and snowy and icy, but I’m thinking in particular of states that reach, you know, minus 40 and things in the winter. Is there a push to have this expanded to kind of like an overall climate protection so that workers who then have to work outside, I don’t know, like railroad workers or things like that, when it’s minus 40, would also have protections under something like this?

Juley Fulcher: It is important to protect workers in those circumstances. And it is a sort of policy issue on the back burner, if you will. There are not as many injuries and deaths due to cold as there are due to hot, but still it is a critical mass of individuals that should not be experiencing those kinds of problems at work.

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There are protections that can be put in place, but the protections differ quite a bit from the kinds of things you need to do to protect workers from heat. Our body systems that cool us are different from the ones that warm us up. And so, you know, everything that we’re doing when we’re talking about cooling workers effectively is about how we work with the existing cooling systems to augment what they’re doing in our body, and enable them to be able to control the heat that’s there.

We need to be able to do that the same way when we talk about augmenting the systems in our body that keep us warm in cold conditions. And so that’s something that requires a different knowledge base that is driving it, and is able to create policies that are more specific to that particular danger in workplaces. And hopefully it won’t be long off before that begins as well.

I will say, though, that with the increased global annual warming that we’ve seen in the last couple of years, well, actually that we’ve seen a pattern of for the past 40 years, but has become particularly intense in recent years, there’s been less focus on addressing the cold.

Not only are we experiencing ridiculous heat in the summertime, we’re not getting the same kind of cold temperatures in general or as often in the wintertime. And so there’s just been less of a perceived need for that kind of standard in light of the sort of desperate need for the heat standard that we’re facing.

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Eleanor Goldfield: Yeah, absolutely. Great point. And I, it makes me feel like there should just be a climate change worker bill that like deals with floods and droughts and fires and like all of the things that we’re facing as workers and as humans beings because the climate is in such chaos right now.

Juley Fulcher: It is a complicated thing and there are going to be a lot of effects.

from different kinds of climate change disasters and just general changing in temperatures that are going to affect things like, you know, vector borne illnesses, and different kinds of products that will need to be used in order to keep plants alive that also have toxic effects on humans.

Things like that, we’re going to have to sort of catch up and deal with each one as the issues arise. I will note that because of the fire season that we have in, you know, most of the the western half of the United States, smoke inhalation has become a big problem.

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And a couple of these states that have addressed heat stress have companion standards that address the issue of smoke, so that they’re dealing with how those things combine, not just how we address them separately, because we have a lot of workers in those areas, outdoor workers who are out trying to do their work in the heat wearing, you know, bandanas and barely able to see 10 feet away because of the smoke in the air. So hopefully there will be more and more states that address that although hopefully there’ll be less states that where that will be a need. It doesn’t seem to be the direction we’re going in in terms of climate change though.

Eleanor Goldfield: No, indeed, it does not. It’s quite a dystopian, to be honest. But we battle on and I’m very grateful that you are battling on on this issue, Juley. Where’s the best place for folks to stay up to date on this issue?

Juley Fulcher: Go to citizen.org and put in the search bar, heat stress networky you can click on that web page that I try to keep as up to date as I possibly can. It has all sorts of information. It has access to all of the reports that I’ve written on the issue that have focused on different aspects of the problem, it also has reports from other allied organizations who are part of this heat stress network, where they have come at it from another perspective: Union of Concerned Scientists addressing it from the climate change aspect. We have a report from Restaurant Opportunity Centers that addresses specifically what restaurant workers are up against and workers who are working back in the kitchen making your food.

And so lots of information up there and resources and hopefully you find what you need or within those items that are up there. You’ll see an awful lot of them have extensive footnoting and are a great assistance as well in trying to locate information if you don’t see it within any of the reports or blogs that are currently there.

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Eleanor Goldfield: Fantastic. Thank you so much, Juley. I really appreciate you taking the time to sit down with us and contextualizing this and giving us this very important information. I appreciate it.

Juley Fulcher: I appreciate the willingness of you to cover this, and to help us get the word out, not only in order to make sure that workers get protected, but it also helps to educate the public of just how dangerous heat is, and their own personal need to learn about it and learn about how to avoid getting a heat illness, or a heat injury, and how to see the problems when others are experiencing them and get them help very quickly.

So it’s an area that we all need education to deal with all aspects of what’s happening in our lives this summer.

Eleanor Goldfield: Absolutely. Couldn’t agree more.

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Thanks again, Juley. Appreciate it.

Juley Fulcher: Happy to be here.

 

Below is a Rough Transcript of the Interview with Mickey Huff and Eleanor Goldfield

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Mickey Huff: Welcome back to the Project Censored Show on Pacific Radio, I’m Mickey Huff with Eleanor Goldfield. In this segment, Eleanor and I are going to talk a little bit more about current events and applying the critical media literacy lens to them.

Eleanor, it’s always a pleasure to catch up with you and talk about things going on in our crazy world. Of course the assassination attempt against Donald Trump happened not long ago in Butler, Pennsylvania in the Rust Belt, not far from where I grew up, so I imagine we might have a little chat about some of the media coverage around that.

It’s also the RNC convention here. We’re talking on July 18th. The program, of course, airs the following weeks. But no shortage of things to talk about. However you particularly wanted to talk about this story that came from the conservative, we’ll say, to be generous, Washington Examiner. There was a recent piece called Media Ripped for Falsely Claiming Biden Deported More Than Trump.

This is a story that came out about a week ago now. This is a former U.S. Immigration and Customs and Enforcement chief condemned a wire service report this week that claimed that Joe Biden recently deported more illegal immigrants than Donald Trump.

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And, of course, immigration is a big issue in the campaign, particularly among the G.O.P. There’s a lot of dog whistle politics that go on with any of these talks about immigration. What we’re seeing at the convention is a lot of talk about unity and so forth, while we simultaneously see people holding placards and signs that of course are nothing close to what unity looks like.

And a lot of them are very hostile and negative towards immigrants, and particularly certain kinds of immigrants. But Eleanor Goldfield, please tell us about this issue in this piece, because I know you’ve been thinking a lot about it.

Eleanor Goldfield: Yeah, thanks, Mickey. And just to your point, certain kinds of immigrants.

I mean, I’m the child of immigrants, right, and my mom didn’t move here till 1980 something. But of course, she’s blonde. She’s white and blonde. So it’s not “that kind” of immigrant. Right. And so what I want to cover here is actually a Reuters report that the Washington Examiner then decided to put in its crosshairs that is titled, Biden is now deporting more people than Trump. And it uses quotes from both Biden and Trump. Trump, the usual anti immigrant drivel. But then Biden also, a quote from him is, “today I’m announcing actions to bar migrants who cross our southern border unlawfully from receiving asylum.”

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And this is something that Natasha Leonard over at The Intercept covered early in June, I believe, about the Democrats legacy of this, of policing the southern border, which actually started with Clinton after he pushed through NAFTA, he made sure it was the first time that the U.S. Mexico border was actually militarized.

So the Democrats have a rich history of this kind of anti Southern immigration legislation. And so it’s not really cause for surprise. It’s obviously cause for concern, but just to set the context there with that understanding.

What happens in this Washington Examiner article is something that is prime fodder for Project Censored and the work that we do, because there’s this person who’s a former ICE chief of staff, John Feere, and yes, his last name is Feere. He says that there’s an, and he now works, the revolving door has pushed him to a think tank called the Center for Immigration Studies, which opposes, quote unquote, illegal immigration. And he says that you have to look at the difference between a removal conducted by ICE, And a return conducted by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, CBP.

So he’s making a distinction between people getting, like, their doors knocked on by ice and being removed as in they were already here, and then a return which he says is different because they haven’t been processed through the American immigration system. Now, there is, of course, an administrative distinction here, but that administrative distinction is the US’s alone.

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It is not a distinction that is realized in the lived experiences of people who end up in cages, who end up deported, who end up dead in the deserts between Mexico and the United States. So this is one of those examples of, I don’t know if Project Censored has a word for it, but a way of trying to create distinction where there isn’t one, a way of trying to fool the reader or the viewer into thinking, Oh, well, this policy is actually nicer because it’s a return.

You know, return sounds nice, you’re returning somewhere, even though these people aren’t from Mexico most of the time. So it’s a way to try and bend reality to suit their own means in this way to try and make it look like Biden is not actually doing enough at the border, and he’s letting too many people in, so Trump’s the better one because he’s actually deported more people.

So it’s also a race to the bottom, like who can be the worst human being, and who can deport more people, and put more people in cages, rip families apart, etc, etc, Mickey.

Mickey Huff: Or which president can bury more children under rubble with U.S. made bombs? I mean, again, it is a race to the bottom and the rhetoric that, you know, that’s coming out of, say, right now, of course, the convention is going on, the show is pre recorded. Again, I repeat that because when people listen to this next week, sometimes people will shake their fist at the broadcast acting as if we’re missing something that’s happening next week. Rest assured something strange will happen next week when this show airs, and we’ll talk about that later.

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But, you know, how many people read fact checking and of course there’s issues with fact checking not all fact checking is equal, but it is good at least to have some sort of record or a tally of how many statements are being made at such convention which is prime time aired, right? Getting, you know, some considerable viewership and so on, particularly after what happened this last weekend in Butler, Pennsylvania with the Trump campaign.

Pointer Institute, PolitiFact, not the worst of the fact checking groups. They’ve actually done a pretty decent job of breaking down and bringing this up because they specifically recently looked at immigration and they looked at the Arizona Senate candidate, Carrie Lake, their claims talking about how the U.S. representative from Arizona, Ruben Gallego voted to let millions of people pour into the country and illegally cast ballots. These are false statements, right? These are things that are not happening. Steve Scalise in Louisiana said on the border Biden and Harris opened it up to the entire world and prisons were being emptied.

Mickey Huff: The idea that the border is open is just categorically false. I understand that it’s useful rhetorically and politically to use that kind of language. But as you know, Eleanor, the borders are pretty heavily policed. In fact, we know that the borders, as you were mentioning earlier about which kinds of immigrants, some borders seem to be far more policed and walled than others.

And that’s by design, right? But again, I think back to the media literacy angle, and I’d like to have you talk a little bit about this with some of this kind of coverage, people that are tuning into this kind of convention, you know, depending upon if they watch team blue or team red media sources.

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They don’t really know if Nikki Haley’s claims about Kamala Harris are true, Haley acted as if it was entirely Kamala Harris’s job to quote, fix the border. But let’s go back to the frame. It assumes the border is broken. It assumes that that’s what the vice president is supposed to do. And by the way, I’m in California. I remember what Kamala Harris did here for immigrants and communities of color and people, and you’d think the GOP would actually be cheerleading some of the things that Harris did in California.

So, again, the frame of this, it’s based on a series of assumptions. You mentioned this earlier, there’s gross distortion of language and hyperbole to make things appear to be worse than they are.

I’m not saying there aren’t issues around border and people coming in and so on, but what I am saying is that there is a concerted effort to create straw person kind of fallacies blowing up situation so that they’re easily able to be kind of torn apart in terms of criticism against Democrats who will get into later.

But Eleanor Goldfield, maybe you can say a little bit more just about media and media coverage around this issue of immigration. And of course, the fact that in general, the establishment press seems to let political figures get away with saying nearly anything. Right?

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And it’s not such that the lying is happening, the degree to which that people are supposed to believe them all paraphrasing Hannah Arendt. It’s that when so many falsehoods are coming out, people just kind of lose the notion of what’s true in the first place. They almost stop looking for it. Can you comment on some of that?

Because there’s a lot of that going on out of the convention. I’m sure later we’ll see similar things happening in a different way from another convention in Chicago. Let’s see what happens, but Eleanor, what are some of your remarks on these things?

Eleanor Goldfield: I mean, absolutely, Mickey, and I want to just also mention to listeners that we previously had on the show, John Washington, the author of the book, The Case for Open Borders, who writes a really compelling book about borders and their malleability, their movability, and indeed their militarization.

And that, in fact, today we have the most militarized border that we’ve ever had. And it still doesn’t work. It doesn’t work in the sense that people still find a way across because humans move. That is the only thing that has been true of us throughout history when all other things have changed, right?

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Humans will always find a way to move, particularly when the U.S. is responsible via the Monroe Doctrine and other kinds of policies like that for destroying people’s home countries.

Mickey Huff: Okay, so this is where I wanted to go. You already came in with it as I was saying, why is it that so many people are coming here?

History has clearly shown many of the places that the United States colonizes in whatever way, neoliberal way, economically, physically bombs, destroys, etc. You know, when we saw in the 60s and 70s massive waves of people coming from Southeast Asia, what was happening there? What was happening in Southeast Asia at the time?

Oh yeah, the Vietnam War that leveled Vietnam, killed 3 million people, went into Laos, Cambodia, the surrounding region. We could go on and on. The Middle East, we’ve been bombing the hell out of the Middle East for 30 plus years.

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Eleanor Goldfield: And why is it that Europe is now freaking out and moving towards the right in so many ways because of immigration from the Arab world?

Well, thanks, U. S. Empire.

Mickey Huff: And NATO, and the idea that there was just these big left gains in Europe. Again, let’s remember this center left is a neoliberal, more of a neoliberal kind of a coalition going on there. So a lot of hay being made about this left insurgency in Europe doesn’t stack up to all the details if you’re paying attention, but nevertheless, back to that issue of immigration, creating immigrants, right?

There’s a push and a pull. Okay. Cool. There’s no contextual discussion of, in the media, why there are people at the border, where they’re coming from, and what’s causing people to need to move out of their own homelands. So maybe, talk more about some of that, Eleanor.

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Eleanor Goldfield: Yeah, and it’s incredible. I mean, and I mentioned NAFTA earlier.

That caused a huge wave. The North American Free Trade Agreement is what that stands for. And this was, this has been a horrific trade agreement that crippled the ability, particularly of small, like campesinos, small scale Mexican farmers to be able to make a living. And so where are they going to go?

And so, and of course, Clinton knew this, which is why Clinton, under Clinton, was the first time that the border between Mexico and the U. S. started to be militarized. Because, again, these people aren’t dumb. They know what they’re doing. They know that they’re going to be ripping families apart. They know that people are going to die at the border.

It’s not about safety, because as James Baldwin famously said, If I’m starving, that’s your problem. And so you don’t make safety by oppressing other people. And that’s very evident by what we see around the world, at all kinds of borders and checkpoints, whether that be in Israel or in the United States.

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And I think with regards to the Washington Examiner article in this lens of critical media literacy. I think it’s also important to note that I think a lot of times when somebody sees a critique, particularly of corporate media, they immediately think, oh, well, if it’s a critique of it, then this critique must be true.

Because it all of a sudden points out to them that, oh, well, here’s what they said that’s wrong. And here’s why, here’s the real answer. They don’t then say, well, what’s the critique of the critique, right? It feels like the person who knows enough to know that that’s wrong must also just have the answer, that single, perfect, you know, mathematical response that makes them right.

So I think that’s the other thing that critical media literacy does is opens things up to nuance so that I can say that this guy who’s the former head of ICE, he obviously knows more about the admin of ICE than I do, and, you know, God bless him for that. But the lived experiences and the reality of people who are being caged, who are being thrown back, whatever you want to call that, deported, removed, returned, however that lingo is used, the lived experiences are still there.

And so it’s still true that people are being forcibly removed from the United States from entering and seeking asylum in the United States under Biden. That is the bottom line here. And so I think that that is also something that this kind of watchdog journalism, that independent journalism needs to do, is expose to viewers how this is sneaky, how this is insidious.

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And interestingly enough, which it’s the same man Feere from, the former ICE official said that media that reports anything to the contrary, basically of what he’s saying, that the Biden administration isn’t doing enough at the border “further undermines the credibility of journalism.

If journalism’s wanted to help protect the American people against dangerous federal policies and politicians, they would be exposing the fallout of the Biden administration’s agenda and pressing Biden’s political appointees to defend their records .” So he’s basically saying, if you want to be considered a journalist to me, you are going to protect my agenda.

But of course, Mickey, we know that real journalists don’t protect any politician’s agenda. That’s not our job. Our job is to dig for the truth and hold politicians of all stripes accountable for the kind of policies that they’re pushing.

Mickey Huff: Yeah, absolutely. Watchdog journalism is a mainstay of just muckraking reporting.

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I mean, that’s what’s at the root of it is to hold people in power accountable to the public by informing the public of what’s actually going on. As George Sheldon said in the mid 20th century, the job of journalism isn’t to be objective and do both sides. And it’s to tell the public what’s actually going on, to tell people how are the powerful fleecing the public. You know, you go back a hundred years ago and Lincoln Steffens in the shame of the city series went to many major towns and cities in the united states and looked at the what he called an unholy alliance between political figures and prominent business people.

I mean 100 years later, dark money is basically the whole name of the game. Peter thiel behind jd vance I mean, this is basically the the hard right, more libertarian, very anti immigrant, very right wing and reactionary. That’s the money that’s behind Trump. Elon Musk, $45 million a month, pledged, right? You know, the tech bro money is pouring in to the RNC coffers. And again, one of the things that attracts those people is the bravado.

It’s the idiocy, which you’ve already pointed out factually, and let the facts speak for themselves, the Biden administration hasn’t been friendly at the border.

They’re not friendly around immigration policies. You know, they have a very neoliberal approach. And again, I, as an historian, I have to say, pointing out Bill Clinton and pointing out how this stuff really started to shift into a more neoliberal world in the 1990s was in the Rust Belt, right, where this J.D. Vance person writes the Hillbilly Elegy, I mean, talk about a con man grifter, you know, throwing his own folks under the bus. But let’s save that for another time. People might want to read that, but this idea, you know, that they just concoct this up that all these people are coming for their jobs and so on.

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I mean, it’s just sheer rubbish. And Clinton was able to sell it, and I watched him do it because I grew up in the Rust Belt. I saw them come in and campaign around all of this stuff. I saw them say how no jobs would be lost, and what did they do? They brought in private prisons for people from the mills to go work.

So they filled those up with non violent drug offenders, right? I mean, again, all of this bait and switch, all of this shell game stuff came then, and then after people in the Midwest saw, the billionaire Ross Perot from Texas called it, it’ll be a giant sucking sound of jobs leaving the country, while the billionaires are often right about some things, and that’s usually about the bottom line, money, you know, these kind of things, he was right.

It was a boon to some corporations, but terrible for workers. Terrible for workers. And that resentment, right, that comes out of the collapse of the Rust and the creation of the Rust Belt in the 1970s and the 1980s, was ripe to have people desperate for Clinton in the 1990s, where he was selling them this bill of goods, it just paved the way for Bush’s, quote, compassionate conservatism.

It just kind of continued the policy. But by the way, even Bush’s immigration policy, you’d have to wonder what the current GOP would have to say about that, right? Because Bush openly said, well, we actually need immigrant labor to do cheap things, right? Bush actually said that stuff out loud, George W. Bush. But things have shifted so far to the right in the last 30 years that we’re really left with the Biden administration and the Democrats pretending that they have some humanitarian immigration policy, which it really is not.

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And then, of course, the GOP, which, you know, you go take a look at Project 2025. They want to incarcerate 100,000 immigrants, like, right away. They want to begin deportations, incarcerations. Again, you know, I think people need to really pay closer attention in the kind of spectacle that we’re seeing at the convention in Milwaukee right now. The Republicans, yeah, it’s thin on facts and high on rhetoric and high on sort of the red meat to the lions thing about trying to build the base and pump people up, which I think is frankly very, very dangerous.

And the media should be doing a better job of dissecting those messages, historically contextualizing them as you were just doing. But again, that’s what the critical media literacy lens does. It doesn’t pick a side or a party. It looks at the issues, looks at the facts, looks at the history, and tries to help the public understand what’s actually happening.

Eleanor.

Eleanor Goldfield: Yeah, absolutely, Mickey. And to your point about the ramping up, I mean, Project 2025 is really just the yes anding. I mean, I feel like it’s a very terrible improv class that we’re living through in the U.S. right now. It’s just a continuous yes anding, okay? Yes, more money to the military. Yes, more money for militarizing the border. Yes, more money for ecocide. And so it’s just like this continuous yes anding regardless of which side of the aisle you’re looking at it from. And so I think that’s the other important thing to note here. And lest we forget that, you know, Obama was nicknamed the deporter in chief.

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I mean, there’s a reason for that, right? And these Biden policies, in early June, when the Biden administration pointed out that, they announced that they were going to basically disallow asylum seekers at the border. Biden tweeted something, or his lackeys tweeted something to the effect of, Well, there’s one thing I won’t do, and that’s split up families.

Well, here’s the thing, Joe. Again, the lived experience, you can say that. But you know, or his people know, that that actually is what’s going to happen because, for instance, what happens at the border is that asylum seekers can’t go in, but unaccompanied children can still get in. Now, this is where it gets really sick because, of course, what does unaccompanied mean?

It means that you just shove your child towards the border and say, I need you to make it because I might not. Is that not splitting up families? As a parent, I cannot imagine saying goodbye to my child at the border and having that be considered a more compassionate policy than what was under Trump or what would be under Trump.

I mean, it’s absolute drivel. And that’s the other important thing is that the Republicans are a lot better at saying things just like flat out, like, hey, we’re going to do this and it’s inhumane and we’re down with it. The Democrats say things like, we’re not going to split up families, but they’re well aware of what their policies do.

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They’re well aware of how these actually affect people on the ground at the border. And so it’s really important not just to have that critical media lens when looking at how journalists portray things, or how the stenographers to the State Department portray things, but just looking at how the politicians themselves talk about these things and say, Okay, well, you say you’re not going to do that, but let’s see what your policy actually does.

Mickey Huff: Yeah, we will certainly see. We’re not prognosticators. We don’t know what’s going to happen. Things are looking more and more 1968 by the day.

But time will tell. Anything else you want to add here in this segment, Eleanor? It’s always good to talk about some of the latest things and apply a critical media lens to things that are happening and also not just to critique the establishment press and so on, but to highlight independent reporting and the muckraking type journalism that the independent press is known for and to remind the public why we really need it.

Eleanor Goldfield: Yeah, absolutely, Mickey. And I’d say that, you know, ProjectCensored.org has great resources, whether that be alternative news sites, or how to continuously critique the media that you take in. And again, that isn’t just the media that is journalists, that is the media that is really anything that you see, read, or listen to. I would recommend that folks also check out, and I had a person who works on this, Dr. Austin Kocher on the show recently, he has a transactional records access clearing house, which is basically, through FOIA requests and a lot of other things, it is a one stop shop for immigration data, which they don’t want you to have. That’s why it’s behind a FOIA request. Lots of them, in fact. It’s at trac.syr.edu. It’s a project out of Syracuse University that basically gets all this information from the government, which should be public information and easy to access. And shows you the reality of the situation statistically, and then also shares information on the ground.

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So I’d recommend that people check out that. That is a great place to look for this. And then, again, you know, the goal of Project Censored is to expand your media diet, not constrict it. So I’m not gonna tell you only get your immigration information from this one place. If you want to read The Washington Examiner, that’s fine. Yeah, we all need a laugh. But I think it’s important to make sure that we read a lot of different places and, again, recognize who they’re talking to. They just spoke to one ICE, former ICE official who now works for an anti immigration think tank. They spoke to that one person for this article.

So it’s like, Okay, but what about, anybody over, no? Okay. So, again, really checking out who they’re talking to and the angles and the biases that those outlets have as a whole is super important.

Mickey Huff: Absolutely. The frames that they use, the language they employ, the terms they avoid. Many things go into crafting, let’s just call it what it often is, propaganda.

And a lot of effort goes into making the propaganda appear to be journalistic. Right? But of course, you know, many of them made a team red, team blue corporate networks, cable networks. They’ve kind of even just done away with the pretense that they’re actually committing acts of journalism, many of the times, and they’re just sort of either platforming nonsense and he said, she said, or they’re just going for 1 particular bias.

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It’s a classic thing too with a lot of these think tanks and these fancy sounding places with banal patriotic names and so on, right? Right? Like the Heritage Foundation, right? Project 2025, the Atlantic Council, they’re counseling around the Atlantic, but it’s never really explained who funds them, what they are, what their ideological proclivities are, what their agendas are.

Historically, one of my favorites was the Heartland Institute, right, which was actually started by the fossil fuel industry, is a propaganda arm to pay quote unquote scientists 10 grand per article to try to debunk or cast doubt on global warming issues. And of course, that’s another right wing coup is they got us away from saying global warming and into climate change, right? The banal climate change, right? And it’s not a climate change. It’s a crisis, right? So, again, we have to be very mindful. This is what critical media literacy education does. It helps us decode propaganda.

It helps us understand biases and you’re right. We need to diversify our sources of information. We need to read things like the Washington examiner, even for the reasons you put forward. We need to read everything. Things across the spectrum. So again, we’ve got a lot of independent sources and things listed at projectcensored.org for free. And of course, we’re always open and welcome to hear from you, all our listeners and viewers, the things that you think, things that you’re checking out.

So, Eleanor, I think we’re probably about out of time in this segment. As always, it is a delight to sit down and speak with you about these things, and I’m sure we’ll do it again next month.

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I am Mickey Huff, and you are

Eleanor Goldfield: Eleanor Goldfield. Thanks so much, y’all, for tuning in to the Project Censored radio show. We will talk to you next time.

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Federal Reserve puts on enormous party hat

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This is an audio transcript of the Unhedged podcast episode: ‘Federal Reserve puts on enormous party hat

Katie Martin
A great moment in history has arrived. Rob Armstrong was right about something. Quite against the run of play — shush, Rob — quite against the run of play, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates — hurrah — from the highest level in decades, and for the first time since the pandemic. And what’s more, it went large, cutting by half-a-point, precisely as my esteemed colleague had predicted.

What kind of voodoo is this? Does the Fed know something horrible we don’t? Cutting by half-a-point is normally a crisis measure, a cry for help. Should we panic about a recession? And really, Rob was right. End times.

Today on the show, we’re going to explain how come investors are ignoring the usual script and taking this bumper cut as a good thing. This is Unhedged, the markets and finance podcast from the Financial Times and Pushkin. I’m Katie Martin, a markets columnist here at FT Towers in London. And listeners, I must tell you, the saddest of things has happened. I’m joined by Rob Armstrong, lord of the Unhedged newsletter. But the sad thing is he’s dialling in from his sickbed. Rob, I’m sorry, you’re poorly.

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Robert Armstrong
I am poorly. It’s terrible. But on a 50-basis-point day, the dead shall rise from their graves. The angels shall sing. And we all . . . we’re all gonna talk about it.

Katie Martin
Yes. Good, strong Barry White vibes I’m getting from this voice you’re busting out today. So, as you say, half a percentage point from the Fed; that’s 50 basis points in market money. Normally central banks love being super boring and they normally move by quarter-point increments. So, I mean, was it the shock of being right about the 50-basis-point thing that pushed you over the edge into sickness?

Robert Armstrong
It could have been. I’m so accustomed to getting this wrong now that it was really paralysing. However, I think, you know, you mentioned earlier, why is the market kind of taking this in stride and seeing this as a good thing? And I think it’s a bit of a communications success by the Fed in that they told the story about this, that they’re not doing this because they have to, because it’s an emergency. They’re doing it because they can.

Katie Martin
So gangster.

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Robert Armstrong
And the reason they can is because they’ve kind of beaten inflation. Right?

Katie Martin
So for people who, unlike us, have a life and don’t sit around watching central bank press conferences, the way this works is they do the decision, they say, here you are, here’s your 25 or 50 whatever basis points, or we’re on hold. This time around, it was 50 basis points.

And then just a little while later, there’s a press conference where the chairman, Jay Powell, gets up in front of like all of the kind of most pointy headed Fed journalists in the world and fields whatever questions. There’s a statement, and then he field whatever questions they want to throw at him. And this for him was the point of highest danger, because the risk of giving the impression somehow that . . . 

Robert Armstrong
Yes.

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Katie Martin
Yeah, we’re really worried. That’s why we’ve done 50. That was a serious risk, right? But instead, what happened?

Robert Armstrong
Well, right from the press release announcing the 50 basis cut, they tweaked the language in the press release so that it was more affirmative and strong on the topic of inflation. We’re really pleased how it’s going on inflation.

Katie Martin
Right, right.

Robert Armstrong
And then in the press release, I mean in the press conference, he just reinforced that point again and again. The line he repeated was the labour market is fine, it’s healthy. It is at a good level. We don’t need it to get any better. We’re not trying to improve it, but we have the freedom to make sure it stays as good as it is.

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And that message seems to have gone through. Markets didn’t move yesterday afternoon. And as a very, you know, opening minutes of trading this morning, stocks are up. So that message seems to have gotten through.

Katie Martin
Yeah. That is skills, actually. You know, I will hand it to them. Because, you know, it’s . . . we’ve said this before on this podcast. Like, it’s so easy to like throw stones and peanuts at the Fed or the European Central Bank, the Bank of England or whatever and say they messed this up. But, like, this stuff is hard. Getting the markets to come away with that sort of impression is not to be taken for granted.

Robert Armstrong
It’s not to be taken for granted. I agree. However, I will note any time you’re trying to spin a narrative and you want people to believe it, one thing that really helps is if the narrative is true. And in this case, I think it broadly is.

I think inflation really does look like it’s whipped. It’s really either at or very close to 2 per cent. And look, with an unemployment rate of 4.2 per cent and basically no increase in lay-offs and the economy is still adding jobs, I think the economy is pretty good. So it’s not like he had to spin a magical tale of unicorns and wizards here. He just had to, you know, make a case based on the facts.

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Katie Martin
Yeah. And and that kind of goes back to the fact that the Fed is not quite like all the central banks in that it has to look after inflation, but it also has to look after the jobs market. And so, you know, again, the risk is that you come away from a decision like this and think, well, you know, those little cracks that we’ve seen in the jobs market, maybe they’re the start of something really big and hairy and awful, but he seems to have massaged this one away.

Robert Armstrong
Indeed. Impressive performance.

Katie Martin
And so the other thing they do in this press conference is they give the general public and sad nerds like us a little bit of a taster about what’s coming next from the Fed, right. So they’re always, like, central bankers are at pains to say none of this stuff is a promise. This is just our kind of best current understanding of the state of the universe. But so, then you end up with this thing called — drumroll — the dot.

Robert Armstrong
The dot plot.

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Katie Martin
The dot plot. Explain for normal people what the dot plot is.

Robert Armstrong
OK. So it’s kind of a grid. And along the bottom are the years 2024 through 2027, and then another column for the infinite future. And then there’s a range of interest rates going up and down on the side. And every member of the monetary policy committee puts a little dot in each year column where they think the rate is gonna be in that year. Cue much speculation about what all this means, how they’ve changed their mind since the last dot plot and, you know, the implications of all of this.

Katie Martin
Whose dot is whose? We’ll never know.

Robert Armstrong
They don’t reveal whose dot is whose. That’s an important point. And by the way, Katie, according to everything we hear out of the Fed, having invented this device, which was supposed to increase clarity and make everyone’s life easier, everyone in the Fed now hates it and wishes it would go away . . . 

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Katie Martin
Damn you, dot plot!

Robert Armstrong
Because it just causes endless, idiotic little niggling questions from people like me and you. But once you’ve invented something like this, if you take it away, people get upset.

Katie Martin
So you look at the dots and you look at what Jay Powell was saying at the press conference and what does it all add up to? Does it mean that, like, OK, they’ve started with 50 basis points, so like 50 is the new 25? Get used to it, boys and girls?

Robert Armstrong
If you look at the dot plot and their kind of aggregate expectations of where rates are gonna go, it is not that 50 is the new 25. The implication is that the rate of cuts is going to be very measured — or might I say stately, from here until they reach their target.

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Katie Martin
Right, right.

Robert Armstrong
And, you know, another point to mention here is where they think they need to go is very important. That’s the kind of last part of the dot plot is, like, where should interest rates be when everything is normal again?

Katie Martin
Because that will happen one day. And . . . 

Robert Armstrong
Yeah, that will happen. They think it’s gonna happen sometime around 2026, 27. We’ll get to where it’s about normal and they’re looking for about 3 per cent rates in the long run and that . . . so that’s where we’re going to. Just to set the context, we cut from 5.5 per cent to 5 per cent yesterday. And the map of the dot plot shows us moving towards a little under 3 per cent over time. And it’s a matter of how quickly are we going to get there, and along the way, are we going to change our mind and decide we have to go somewhere else?

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Katie Martin
Yeah. So is there a kind of joyful hope that maybe the Fed could be, like, boring again and it can just sort of do 25 basis points here and there and just take this kind of glide path lowering rates that doesn’t get people excited any more?

Robert Armstrong
Well, this is the problem about the future is that it is hard to predict and particularly hard to predict with interest rates. The issue is that the economy, the structure of the economy has changed a lot in the last couple of years because of the pandemic and for other reasons. So that final destination point I talked about, which economists call the neutral rate, which is the just normal, everything is boring and steady rate of interest in the economy where everyone has a job, there’s no inflation, everything’s cool, the neutral rate. We don’t know what that number is.

And Jay Powell has this line about it. We know it by its works. And what that means, stated less calmly, is we know it when we screw it up. In other words, we hit it, we go past it. We push interest rates above the neutral rate and stocks have a big puke and the economy starts to slow down and people get fired or we travel too far below it and inflation starts again. So like the Fed over the next couple of years is like walking down this passage in the complete dark and it knows it can’t touch the wall on its left or the wall on its right. Right? But it doesn’t know the shape of the passageway, what direction it’s supposed to go. So it’s just like, well, I sure hope we’re going this way. Dee-dee-dee. And hope it doesn’t hit too low or too high along the way.

Katie Martin
Hope it doesn’t just walk into a wall.

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Robert Armstrong
The history of interest rates is history of feeling your way along in the dark.

Katie Martin
Rob, that’s the most lyrical thing I’ve ever heard you say.

Robert Armstrong
Isn’t it? It’s poetry. It’s because I’m so ill. These could be the final words of a dying man.

Katie Martin
What meds are you on for this cold you’ve got?

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Robert Armstrong
This could be my legacy, Katie. (Laughter)

Katie Martin
I feel like we should kind of wrap up quite soon before you just like expire during the recording.

Robert Armstrong
I do. As much as I like you, I’d like to have a few words with my wife before I shove off.

Katie Martin
But I will ask you, are we ever going back to like zero interest rates, do you think? Or are we gonna look back on that…

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Robert Armstrong
I feel like I’ve been asking a lot of questions. This is a great question, Katie, but let me push it back on you. We had this wild period in the last decade where there was like a gajillion dollars of sovereign bonds issued at a negative interest rate.

Katie Martin
I think that was something like $18tn or something.

Robert Armstrong
Money was free. It was bonkers. And it was like the Fed funds rate was up against zero. Money was free. We were all in Silicon Valley inventing start-ups whatever, doing our thing. Do you think we’re going back to that? Like once this incident, the pandemic and everything after is over, are we going back?

Katie Martin
I mean, I can’t see it. I buy the narratives that are kicking around about inflation now being structurally higher, right? There’s a climate emergency. There’s a global defence emergency. There is all sorts of things that governments need to spend lots of money on, borrow lots of money for, all things being equal. And then there’s the whole supply chain thing after COVID and with geopolitics yada-yada.

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Robert Armstrong
And the world is getting older, right? And so when old people create demand for savings, that drives interest rates up, right?

Katie Martin
Ah, old people. Yeah.

Robert Armstrong
Old people.

Katie Martin
But I think also before we wrap up, we should note that although you were right, about 50 basis points, I was right about the timing. I said on this here very podcast back in, I think it was June 2023, the . . . Not 24. 23. That the Fed is not gonna cut rates till the third quarter this year. So what I’m saying is I’m the genius here. You’re just like a (overlapping speech) took a coin flip.

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Robert Armstrong
You’re basically Cassandra. Doomed to see the future and not be believed.

Katie Martin
I’m going to . . . 

Robert Armstrong
Do I have the right mythological figure there? I think that was Cassandra.

Katie Martin
Absolutely no idea. But I’m going to set up a hedge fund called like hunch capital where I can invest your money for two and 20. (Laughter) Based on nothing but pure hunches. Do you want in? Because like my hunch on that, your hunch on the other. I think we’re going to make good money.

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Robert Armstrong
We could. We could be rich people, Katie. But I will answer your question seriously. I think interest rates are higher now. We’re not going back to zero. I will end on that serious point.

Katie Martin
Yeah, yeah.

Robert Armstrong
Governments are spending too much. They have to spend too much. There’s loads of old people. There’s the green stuff has to be funded. Productivity might be rising possibly because of AI. We are going into a higher interest rate world. And by the way, the Fed thinks that. If you look at the history of the Fed’s view of what the long term normal interest rate is, that has been steadily ticking higher over the last year and a half or so.

Katie Martin
So rates have come down already pretty hard, but don’t get yourself carried away with thinking that we’re going back to zero, because ain’t . . . I mean.

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Robert Armstrong
No. Ain’t gonna happen. Nope.

Katie Martin
Ain’t gonna happen.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

On that bombshell, we’re going to be back in a sec with Long/Short.

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[MUSIC PLAYING]

OK, now it’s time for Long/Short, that part of the show where we go long a thing we love, short a thing we hate. Rob, I feel like you should go first before you completely lose your voice. (Laughter)

Robert Armstrong
Well, I’m going to go short wellbeing. And I say this not because my wellbeing is poor right now, but because of an article our colleague Joshua Franklin, wrote in the Financial Times yesterday that says, I’m quoting here, JPMorgan Chase has tasked one of its bankers with overseeing the company’s junior banker program, a response to renewed concerns about working conditions for young employees. And it goes on that this poor person is gonna have to make sure all these young investment bankers are happy and have work-life balance. I think investment bankers owe it to the rest of us to be miserable.

Katie Martin
Right.

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Robert Armstrong
They make a lot of money. They are the lords of the universe. They should not be happy. Their wellbeing should be awful. And that’s what you’re getting paid for. So I think JPMorgan Chase is doing the wrong thing here. And they need to appoint a banker to oversee the what’s the opposite of wellbeing. Unwell being of their junior bankers.

Katie Martin
You’re a very, very mean person and you just want everyone to be sad like you.

Robert Armstrong
No, if you want to be happy, become a journalist and make no money. If you want to be rich, become a banker and like get divorced and have your kids hate you. It’s just the normal way of life. (Laughter)

Katie Martin
Well, I am long European banking merger drama. So if you’ve missed it, the German government is, like, quite scratchy and unhappy about a potential takeover of Commerzbank by Italy’s UniCredit. It’s the talk of the town. Everyone is kind of, you know, huddled around in bars in the city asking like, how the hell did UniCredit manage to amass like a nine per cent stake in this thing? Like that doesn’t seem like a good strategic move. There’s a lot of excitement over the motives. My interest here is that this is just like the good old days of European banking mergers with like very important European bankers wearing gilets under their jackets going around in like big fast cars and, you know, chatting away on their mobile phones and being masters of the universe.

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Robert Armstrong
I just wish they would get along with it. As far as I know, in continental Europe, there’s actually more banks than people.

Katie Martin
Yeah, it’s like sheep in New Zealand. You’ve just got . . . (Laughter)

Robert Armstrong
They just need. I mean, as long as I’ve been in finance, people have been rattling on about how banking in Europe was going to consolidate. The industry was finally going to make some. They just need . . . I mean, as long as I’ve been in finance, people have been rattling on about how banking in Europe was going to consolidate. The industry was finally going to make some money and it was going be able to compete with the US. And then it’s like, you know, some Germans get mad at some Italians, it never happens and the cycle turns again.

Katie Martin
Yeah, it’s like we want consolidation, but no, no, no, no, no. Not like that.

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Robert Armstrong
Not like that.

Katie Martin
Anything but that.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

And I am here for the drama is all I’m saying.

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Robert Armstrong
Right on. I love it.

Katie Martin
OK, listeners, we are going to be back in your feed on Tuesday if Rob makes it that long, but listen up anyway, wherever you get your podcasts.

Unhedged is produced by Jake Harper and edited by Bryant Urstadt. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. We had additional help from Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT’s global head of audio. Special thanks to Laura Clarke, Alastair Mackie, Gretta Cohn and Natalie Sadler. FT premium subscribers can get the Unhedged newsletter for free. A 30-day free trial is available to everyone else. Just go to FT.com/unhedgedoffer. I’m Katie Martin. Thanks for listening.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

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Republicans assess potential fallout for Trump from North Carolina bombshell

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Republicans assess potential fallout for Trump from North Carolina bombshell

Republicans in North Carolina and nationally are assessing the potential fallout for former President Donald Trump from a bombshell report alleging that Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, the party’s gubernatorial nominee, posted disturbing and inflammatory statements on a forum of a pornographic website.

CNN reported Thursday that Robinson, behind an anonymous username he allegedly used elsewhere, made the comments more than a decade ago, including supporting slavery, calling himself a “black NAZI” and recalling memories of him “peeping” on women in the shower as a 14-year-old.

ABC News has not independently verified the comments were made by Robinson, and he insisted in a video posted to X prior to the story’s publication that “those are not the words of Mark Robinson.”

But Robinson, a Donald Trump ally, already has a history of incendiary remarks about Jews, gay people and others, and elections in North Carolina, one of the nation’s marquee swing states, rest on a knife’s edge, raising questions of how much the latest news will impact his race and other Republicans on the ballot with him — including the former president.

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“I think this only heightens the level of toxicity that the Robinson campaign has, and the real question becomes, what’s the radioactive fallout at the top of the ticket along with down the ballot for Republicans here in North Carolina?” asked Michael Bitzer, the Politics Department chair at Catawba College.

“This cannot be something that the voters aren’t going to recognize and probably play more into softening the Republican support. Is it isolated only to Robinson’s campaign, or does it start to impact Trump? Does it impact other statewide executive Republicans as well? We’ll just have to wait and see, but this feels like a pretty significant event in North Carolina politics.”

MORE: Republicans step up effort to change Nebraska’s electoral vote process to benefit Trump

Robinson, who casts himself as a conservative family man and is running for North Carolina’s open governorship against Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein, is already behind in the polls.

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PHOTO: Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, R-NC., speaking on the first day of the Republican National Convention, July 15, 2024, in Milwaukee. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP)

PHOTO: Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, R-NC., speaking on the first day of the Republican National Convention, July 15, 2024, in Milwaukee. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP)

While he holds statewide office and has broad name recognition, Robinson boasts a highly controversial record, including calling the Holocaust “hogwash” and homosexuality “filth,” and he drew claims of hypocrisy when he admitted this year that he had paid for his wife to get an abortion, seemingly in contrast with his stated opposition to the procedure, which he’d previously likened to “murder” and “genocide.”

North Carolina’s gubernatorial race is still considered competitive given the state’s tight partisan divide, but Republicans in the state told ABC News they had already viewed him as trailing, and that Thursday’s report won’t help.

“He’s already got a lengthy history of publishing comments like that on the internet. These are perhaps a little more graphic. In terms of does this by itself serve as a guillotine, I don’t know. But it feels like the cumulative weight is starting to add up now,” said one North Carolina GOP strategist. “It flies in the face of everything he presents of himself publicly. So, cumulatively plus the hypocrisy of this, it’s obviously hurtful to him.”

Republicans were more divided on what it means beyond Robinson’s own candidacy.

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North Carolina is a must-win state for Trump, and losing it would impose significant pressure on him to perform in other swing states.

Trump is already running ahead of Robinson — while polls show Robinson trailing, they also show a neck-and-neck race in the state between the former president and Vice President Kamala Harris. The main question now is whether the news depresses Republican turnout in a state where even a small nudge in turnout one way or the other can make decide the victor.

“[Robinson] was already toast. The question is if it hurts Trump, something the campaign is very worried about,” said Doug Heye, a veteran GOP strategist with experience working in North Carolina. “It doesn’t directly cost him voters, but his endorsed pick continues to be a big distraction and has no money to drive out the vote.”

“He’s a baby blue anchor around Trump’s chances in the Tar Heel State,” added Trump donor Dan Eberhart. “This is not good news for Trump’s campaign at all.”

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PHOTO: North Carolina Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson speaks at the Faith and Freedom Road to Majority conference at the Washington Hilton on June 21, 2024 in Washington, D.C. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images, FILE)

PHOTO: North Carolina Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson speaks at the Faith and Freedom Road to Majority conference at the Washington Hilton on June 21, 2024 in Washington, D.C. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images, FILE)

Democrats are already seizing on the news to try to connect Robinson to Trump, who has repeatedly praised him, even calling him at one point “Martin Luther King on steroids.”

Kamala HQ, an X page that serves as one of the Harris campaign’s rapid response tools, posted a slate of videos featuring Trump speaking positively about Robinson.

“His campaign was toast before this story, so the real impact is on all of the Republicans who have endorsed and campaigned alongside him,” said Bruce Thompson, a North Carolina Democratic fundraiser.

However, Trump has been able to navigate his own headwinds, including felony convictions in New York, questioning Harris’ race and more to remain the leader of his party and a viable presidential candidate, leading some Republicans to doubt that Robinson’s struggles will impact the presidential campaign.

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MORE: Uncommitted movement declines to endorse Harris, but encourages against Trump, third-party votes

“Doubt it impacts at all down-ballot,” said Dave Carney, a GOP strategist who chairs a pro-Trump super PAC.

“I don’t think it helps, but it won’t hurt,” added Sean Spicer, Trump’s first White House press secretary.

PHOTO: Mark Robinson, Lt. Governor of N.C. and candidate for Governor, delivers remarks prior to Republican presidential nominee former President Trump speaking at a campaign event at Harrah's Cherokee Center on Aug. 14, 2024 in Asheville, N.C. (Grant Baldwin/Getty Images)

PHOTO: Mark Robinson, Lt. Governor of N.C. and candidate for Governor, delivers remarks prior to Republican presidential nominee former President Trump speaking at a campaign event at Harrah’s Cherokee Center on Aug. 14, 2024 in Asheville, N.C. (Grant Baldwin/Getty Images)

Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt sounded a confident note, saying in a statement that the former president’s team would “not take our eye off the ball.”

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“President Trump’s campaign is focused on winning the White House and saving this country. North Carolina is a vital part of that plan. We are confident that as voters compare the Trump record of a strong economy, low inflation, a secure border, and safe streets, with the failures of Biden-Harris, then President Trump will win the Tarheel State once again,” she said.”

Still, sources familiar with the matter said the Trump campaign was bracing for a story to come out about Robinson and is planning on putting more distance between the former president and the embattled nominee Robinson — but initially did not have plans to call on him to drop out.

“He seems to not be impacted by what’s going on down-ballot underneath him,” the North Carolina Republican strategist said of Trump. “There’s no way it helps him. But does it hurt him? I don’t know, I think that’s an open question.”

Republicans assess potential fallout for Trump from North Carolina bombshell originally appeared on abcnews.go.com

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A Global Crackdown on Freedom of Expression

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By Robin Andersen, Nolan Higdon, and Steve Macek

According to a 2022 report by Article 19, an international organization that documents and champions freedom of expression, 80 percent of the world’s population lives with less freedom of expression today than did ten years ago. The eradication of basic freedoms and rights is partly due to the pervasive normalization of censorship. Across media platforms, news outlets, schools, universities, libraries, museums, and public and private spaces, governments, powerful corporations, and influential pressure groups are suppressing freedom of expression and censoring viewpoints deemed to be unpopular or dangerous. Unfortunately, physical assaults, legal restrictions, and retaliation against journalists, students, and faculty alike have become all too common, resulting in the suppression of dissenting voices and, more broadly, the muffling and disappearance of critical information, controversial topics, and alternative narratives from public discourse.

We collaborated with an accomplished group of international scholars and journalists to document this disturbing trend in Censorship, Digital Media and the Global Crackdown on Freedom of Expression (Peter Lang 2024). Our collective work analyzed contemporary and historical methods of censorship and anti-democratic impulses that threaten civil society, human rights, and freedoms of information and expression around the world today. The collection explains how a rising tide of political tyranny coupled with the expansion of corporate power is stifling dissent, online expression, news reporting, political debate, and academic freedom from the United States and Europe to the Global South.

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The Assault on Press Freedom

Our volume reveals an epidemic of censorship and attacks on journalists and free speech around the globe. Although completed prior to the horrifying atrocities of October 7, 2023, in Israel, the text provides context for understanding that Israeli violence against Palestinians since October 7, including the murder of journalists, has been decades in the making. This strategy initially took hold with the assassination of the veteran Al Jazeera reporter Shireen Abu Akleh, a Palestinian-American, as she documented Israel’s occupation of Jenin. The world has now witnessed the full flowering of the Israeli-state aggression against Palestinians that led to her murder. To date, Israel has killed more than 100 media workers in Gaza, raising the concern and outrage of numerous press freedom organizations and seventy UN member states that have now called for international investigations into each one of the murders. As the International Federation of Journalists reported, “Killing journalists is a war crime that undermines the most basic human rights.”

Journalists around the globe are repeatedly targeted because their profession, which is protected constitutionally in many nations, exists to draw attention to abuses of power. Thus, it is no surprise that the rise in global censorship has entailed the targeting of journalists with violence, imprisonment, and harassment. In Russia, journalists are jailed and die in custody, as they do in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, China, and Hong Kong. In Mexico, there are “silenced zones,” controlled by a deadly collaboration between drug gangs and government corruption, where journalists are routinely killed. In 2022, Mexico was the most dangerous country for journalists outside of a war zone.

The assault on press freedom has also been normalized in self-proclaimed democracies such as the United Kingdom, where WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange has been imprisoned for more than five years, and in the United States, which has targeted Assange with espionage charges simply for promoting freedom of information. Although US presidents and other national figures often refer to the United States as “the leader of the free world,” the United States now ranks 55th in the world on the Reporters without Borders 2024 World Press Freedom Index.

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Repression of Artists and Academics

News outlets and their workers are not the only targets of the current wave of repression. Hollywood has long been shaped—and censored—by government and corporate power. For example, our book includes a chapter on the Pentagon’s long-standing influence on Hollywood, which has resulted in the film industry abandoning production of hundreds of films deemed unacceptable by the military.

In addition to media, educators and academics are increasingly subject to repressive measures that muzzle freedom of information and expression. Scholars and institutions of higher education sometimes produce research that challenges the myths and propaganda perpetuated by those in power. And even when they don’t, autonomy from micromanagement by government authorities and private funders is a prerequisite for the integrity of scholarly research and teaching, which tends to make elites exceedingly nervous. This is why universities and academic freedom are increasingly under siege by autocratic regimes and right-wing activists from Hungary to Brazil and from India to Florida.

Alarmingly, the latest Academic Freedom Index found that more than 45 percent of the world’s population now lives in countries with an almost complete lack of academic freedom (more than at any time since the 1970s). In Brazil, the government of right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro attempted to ban education about gender and sexuality,  slashed budgets for the country’s universities, and threatened to defund the disciplines of philosophy and sociology. In 2018, Hungary’s conservative Fidesz government shut down graduate programs in gender studies, forced the country’s most prestigious university, the Central European University, to relocate to Austria, and sparked months of protests at the University of Theater and Film Arts in Budapest by making unpopular changes to the school’s board of trustees. Something similar happened in Turkey, where, since 2016, the ruling regime has suspended thousands of professors and administrators from their university posts for alleged ties to the outlawed Gülen movement and shut down upwards of 3,000 schools and universities. Meanwhile, in the United States, several Republican-controlled state legislatures have enacted draconian laws prohibiting or severely limiting teaching about race, sexuality, and gender in college classrooms. Under the influence of its arch-conservative governor, Ron DeSantis, Florida eliminated sociology as a core general education course at all of its public universities.

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Big Tech Censorship

Censorship is nothing new, but the pervasive influence of the internet and the development of so-called artificial intelligence (AI) have created new, more nefarious opportunities to crack down on freedoms around the globe. So-called smart platforms and tools have created new forms of Big Tech control and content moderation, such as shadowbanning and algorithmic bias. Regimes have set up a form of quid pro quo with tech companies, demanding certain concessions such as removing unfavorable content in exchange for government access to otherwise private information about tech platforms’ users. For example, in the United States, tech companies depend on large government contracts and, as a result, often work with government officials directly and indirectly to censor content. Nor do they block only false or misleading content. Social media platforms have also been found to censor perfectly valid scientific speculation about the possible origin of COVID-19 and instances of obvious political satire.

These restrictive practices are at odds with Big Tech PR campaigns that trumpet the platforms’ capacity to empower users. Despite this hype, critical examination reveals that privately controlled platforms seldom function as spaces where genuine freedom of information and intellectual exchange flourish. In reality, Big Tech works with numerous national regimes to extend existing forms of control over citizens’ behaviors and expression into the digital realm. People are not ignorant of these abuses and have taken action to promote freedom across the globe. However, they have largely been met by more censorship. For example, as social media users took to TikTok to challenge US and Israeli messaging on Gaza, the US government took steps to ban the platform. Relatedly, Israel raided Al Jazeeras office in East Jerusalem, confiscated its equipment, shuttered its office, and closed down its website.

Our book also details the complex history and structures of censorship in Myanmar, Uganda, and the Philippines, and popular resistance to this oppression. To this catalog of examples, we can add India’s periodic internet shutdowns aimed at stifling protests by farmers, the blocking of websites in Egypt, and the right-wing strongman Jair Bolsonaro’s persecution of journalists in Brazil. Each of these cases is best understood as a direct result of a rise in faux populist, right-wing authoritarian politicians and political movements, whose popularity has been fostered by reactionary responses to decades of neo-liberal rule.

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What Is to Be Done? 

Censorship is being driven not only by governments but also by an array of political and corporate actors across the ideological spectrum, from right-wing autocrats and MAGA activists to Big Tech oligarchs and self-professed liberals. Indeed, when it comes to censorship, a focus on any one country’s ideology, set of practices, or justifications for restricting expression risks missing the forest for the trees. The global community is best served when we collectively reject all attempts to suppress basic freedoms, regardless of where they emerge or how they are implemented.

To counter increasing restrictions on public discourse and the muzzling of activists, journalists, artists, and scholars, we need global agreements that protect press freedom, the right to protest, and accountability for attacks on journalists. Protection of freedom of expression and the press should be a central plank of US foreign policy. We need aggressive antitrust enforcement to break up giant media companies that today wield the power to unilaterally control what the public sees, hears, and reads. We also need to create awareness and public knowledge to help pass legislation, such as the PRESS Act, that will guarantee journalists’ right to protect their sources’ confidentiality and prevent authorities from collecting information about their activities from third parties like phone companies and internet service providers.

Moreover, widespread surveillance by social media platforms and search engines, supposedly necessary to improve efficiency and convenience, ought to be abandoned. All of us should have the right to control any non-newsworthy personal data that websites and apps have gathered about us and to ask that such data be deleted, a right that Californians will enjoy starting in 2026.

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In addition, we should all support the efforts of organizations such as the American Association of University Professors, Article 19, and many others to fight back against encroachments on academic and intellectual freedom.

Supporters of free expression should also vigilantly oppose the ideologically motivated content moderation schemes Big Tech companies so often impose on their users.

Rather than trusting Big Tech to curate our news feeds, or putting faith in laws that would attempt to criminalize misinformation, we need greater investment in media literacy education, including education about the central importance of expressive rights and vigorous, open debate to a functioning democracy. The era of the internet and AI demonstrates the urgent need for education and fundamental knowledge in critical media literacy to ensure that everyone has the necessary skills to act as digital citizens, capable of understanding and evaluating the media we consume.

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How the EU can reset foreign policy for the western Balkans

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Steven Everts makes numerous important and laudable points on the need for the EU to seriously recalibrate both its capacities and posture in foreign policy (Opinion, September 12).

It’s worth adding that in a foreign policy area on the bloc’s very borders, the EU has led the west into a dead end of failure, in which official pronouncements have never been more at variance with the on-the-ground reality.

The western Balkans is the only region in which the US consistently defers to a democratic partner’s leadership — that of the EU.

Nowhere else does the west, if united, wield greater leverage or have a wider array of policy instruments. Yet for far too long, the EU has addressed the region almost solely through its enlargement process, neglecting its foreign policy commitments — including a deterrent force in Bosnia and Herzegovina mandated by the Dayton Peace Agreement and authorised under Chapter 7 by the UN Security Council.

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This force remains well below the brigade-strength required to pose a credible deterrent to threats to the peace and territorial integrity. In addition, the EU states it will support local authorities, who have primary responsibility to maintain a secure environment — defying the reason the mandate exists to begin with: namely to thwart attempts by local authorities to upend the peace.

The desire to maintain the fiction that the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue is still alive compels the EU into all sorts

of contortions which in effect reward Serbia, despite allegations of Serbian involvement in recent violence, and periodic (and ongoing) threats of invasion. By straying from its original declared purpose to achieve mutual recognition between Serbia and Kosovo, as well as serving as a shield for Serbia’s authoritarian president, Aleksandar Vučić, the dialogue serves as a diversion from genuine problem- solving.

Incoming EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has demonstrated leadership and vision for Europe and the wider west as Estonia’s prime minister, particularly with regard to the response to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

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One hopes she will undertake the overdue task of making the policies of the EU and the wider west more consistent with the values of democracy and human dignity we proclaim to hold dear. She can begin by leading the west to a restoration of credible deterrence in the Balkans, and start to counter the backsliding of democracy long visible there.

Kurt Bassuener
Co-Founder and Senior Associate, Democratization Policy Council, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina

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An Amazing Site With Rich History

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man

It’s early summer in Moldova, and the cherries are already ripe. Fellow journalist Marian Männi and I pick and pop them into our mouths as we follow our chosen tour guide up a hill. We are exploring Old Orhei, a famous Moldovan landmark and archaeological site. It consists of three villages: Trebujeni to the north, Butuceni to the west and Morovaia to the east. The area is built on a green field, and the Răut River runs through it.

Following the guide’s lead, we climb a hill to find one of many cave monasteries. This one is rather hidden, so most tourists miss it entirely. 

My guide showcases a cave monastery above the Răut River, where tourists rarely find their way. Author’s photo.

A picture from the inside of the cave looking out. Author’s photo.

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The surrounding area is an unusual sight. The sloping bank of the Răut River emerges from a perfectly flat field, looking almost man-made. However, it is a natural reminder of how landscapes evolve. You can find perfect seashells on the limestone bank in a country with no coastline, much like on a sandy beach. Millions of years ago, the Răut River was part of the ancient Sarmatian Sea, just like the lands of today’s Moldova.

Scenic views of Old Orhei. One can barely see the river under the hill. Author’s photo.

My guide, Professor Sergiu Musteață, knows this site incredibly well. He is a renowned historian from Moldova and a professor at the Faculty of Philology and History at “Ion Creangă” State Pedagogical University. He has worked to educate locals about the history of Old Orhei and how to develop tourism businesses. He has also guided them in creating guesthouses and writing proposals for funding to build flushing toilets in their homes.

Old Orhei has been one of the main subjects of his research since 1996. “I know everyone in Orheiul Vechi [the Romanian version of the name]!” he laughs. He also knows all of the approximately 300 caves in the area and has personally researched many of them.

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Professor Sergiu Musteață says that people working in Moldovan tourism need to understand that the basis of it is history and heritage. Author’s photo.

A scenic journey through unknown sites

Musteață leads us along a hidden path lined with cherry trees from an old student’s base. Researchers have been excavating this area for decades, as the unique landscape reveals layers of settlements dating back to prehistoric times.

“When we come here with students, we usually clean the neighborhood and cut the grass first,” Musteață says, pushing branches away from the path. If only tourists knew about this shortcut hidden in nature.

Professor Musteață peers through a rustic gate. Author’s photo.

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“We have organized 20 years of summer camps for the locals during the excavations, including summer schools for local kids. Lots of students, both locals and internationals, participated!” he states emphatically.

Despite many efforts, only a few locals have made a name for themselves in the tourism sector. “I don’t know why. There is not so much interest. It should be the most prominent place among tourists,” Musteață comments.

Unlike other visitors, we walk past the Peștera cave monastery, the main tourist attraction of Old Orhei. The current underground tunnels date back to 1820. However, the caves in these limestone hills have existed since the 14th century. Orthodox monks found solitude and a place for spiritual retreat in this isolation.

“There is another cave monastery here. Locals know about it, but only a few tourists will visit it,” says Musteață. This is where we are heading.

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We walk past the Peștera cave monastery and head off-road to find another lesser-known monastery. Author’s photo.

We walk on the bank, passing through the Church of Ascension of St. Mary. The view of the valley and fields is breathtaking. Turning left, the professor leads us onto an almost unrecognizable road downhill from the bank. Our slippers aren’t ideal footwear for this leg of the journey, but nevertheless, we climb down the limestone bank to a land of grazing cows.

Musteață guides us onto a new path, leading down the limestone bank. Author’s photo.

After walking, we climb again to another obscure cave monastery of Old Orhei, built above the Răut’s waters. There isn’t a single soul up here now, but historically, monks isolated themselves in this cave. As a result, the monastery is covered in signs of human habitation.

The church’s facade is engraved with Slavonian writing: “This church was built by the slave of Bosie, pircalab (Chief Magistrate) of Orhei, together with his wife and his children, to cherish God, to forgive his sins.”

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The professor shows us around. We see where the monks would sleep and where they built their fireplace. All the caves are in remarkably good shape, with few signs of dripping rocks.

We view the monastery’s exterior, which has endured for centuries. Author’s photo.

This structure often goes unexplored by tourists. “It’s a bit too far and difficult to access. That’s why people don’t know much about it and wouldn’t end up here,” Musteață explains.

Musteață teaches us about the monastery. Author’s photo.

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On the whole, Old Orhei is a fascinating, history site. And its antiquity is richer than one might expect.

Mankind has loved this region since ancient times

The surroundings have been populated since the Paleolithic era due to good location — the river protects Old Orhei from three sides. The land is suitable for agriculture and flowing water is nearby.

Archaeological findings suggest that the Getians built some fortresses and settlements in this region during the 4th to 3rd centuries BCE, taking advantage of the natural fortifications provided by the rocky outcroppings and riverbanks.

In the 14th century CE, Old Orhei became part of the medieval state of Moldova (Țara Moldovei) after the collapse of the Golden Horde, a Mongol-Tatar state that controlled this territory as well.

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After the Tatar period in the 12th to 14th centuries, an Orthodox Christian community developed during medieval times. Political stability and the protective embrace of nature made Old Orhei an important center. Moldovan hero and ruler Stephen the Great, whose rule lasted from 1457 to 1504, appointed his uncle, Peter III Aaron, to rule there. The area was fortified with strong defensive walls and towers.

Life in Old Orhei slowly faded in the 17th century. The administration moved to neighboring New Orhei, and gradually, the monastic community began to disappear. The last monks are believed to have left Old Orhei at the beginning of the 19th century. By this time, many monastic communities in the region faced significant challenges due to political changes, invasions and pressures from the expanding Ottoman Empire. The decline in monastic life at Old Orhei was part of a broader trend affecting many religious sites in the region.

At the beginning of the 20th century, a new Virgin Mary Church was built atop the bank near a cave monastery to revitalize the area’s spiritual significance. It serves as a symbol of Old Orhei’s continued religious heritage, even after the original monastic community dispersed.

Though the region’s religiosity remains, Old Orhei’s authenticity, unfortunately, has recently declined.

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The loss of authenticity in a historic land

Many historical sites in Old Orhei face the problem of random preservation efforts, which are not concerned with preserving the site’s authentic look.

In 2023, the road from Butuceni village in the Cultural-Natural Reserve was asphalted, which led to an investigation by the Ministry of Culture. It ruined the village’s authenticity but gave locals more logistical freedom.

Climbing on the bank, we notice a brand-new red-roofed dwelling that, from a logical viewpoint, should not have been built in the reserve. But there it is, like the newly constructed path to the Peștera cave monastery and the asphalted road in Butuceni village.

This modern tampering is one thing preventing Moldova from having its first United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) World Heritage Site.

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“There is too much industrialization in a place where authenticity is worshiped,” Musteață laments. The Old Orhei Reserve has been on the UNESCO tentative list for years but is not moving forward any time soon. “I don’t think there is much hope at the moment,” Musteață admits honestly.

The situation saddens him. He and other researchers have worked for years to put this site on the world map as a part of humanity’s historical cradle, to no avail.

“The landscape and the density of settlements since prehistory is special. You can see the changes in this part of the world, moving from East to West. The Golden Horde, the Islamic period, Christians — there is a huge variety of artifacts describing how people lived in this area,” Musteață explains.

Life has moved on from this relic. The Orthodox Church still holds significant power in the small country of Moldova, but only traces of the glory the church once had in Old Orhei remain. In the 1940s, the Soviet Union started excavations in the region, which also disrupted the old sites; they built a new road through the Golden Horde citadel and cut it in half.

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“A historic road should go around the citadel. It’s completely doable,” Musteață says.

The professor feels that many of Moldova’s stories remain untold, even that of such a landmark as Old Orhei. “It is frustrating. We need to tell our story!” Musteață suggests.

He thinks the country itself should put Orhei at the top of the list of tourist destinations in Moldova. After all, it’s the most important tourist site in the country. “It should be declared a state priority, a national strategy,” he says. “People working in this field in Moldova need to understand that the basis of tourism is history and heritage.”

That is another reason why Moldova’s Old Orhei is not on the UNESCO list. “Our country overall is underrepresented,” Musteață believes.

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According to UNESCO, the organization is not in a position to comment on what is missing for Old Orhei to receive its World Heritage Site title. Moldova first proposed the area as a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 2008 but withdrew its nomination the following year.

In September 2015, Moldova submitted a new version of the nomination dossier as “Orheiul Vechi Archaeological Landscape,” a cultural site. Following the evaluation process and a recommendation by the International Council on Monuments and Sites, Moldova withdrew the nomination again.

Luckily, Moldova appears on the UNESCO list as part of a group of countries with the Struve Geodetic Arc, a chain of survey triangulations spanning ten countries and over 2,820 kilometers. This chain reaches from the world’s northernmost city — Hammerfest, Norway — to the Black Sea. The listed site includes 34 points across all ten countries, one of which is in Moldova. The country is eager to earn its very own World Heritage Site title, even if it isn’t Old Orhei.

[Lee Thompson-Kolar edited this piece.]

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The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.

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