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When stuck in traffic, it is best to avoid erratic stop-start driving. That is a lesson Stellantis is learning the hard way.

The European carmaker is suffering from the ills affecting the entire auto sector. Sluggish vehicle sales, competition from Chinese operators and the uncertain trajectory of the transition to electric vehicles have resulted in a slew of warnings, from the likes of Mercedes, BMW and Volkswagen. On top of that, Stellantis has managed to fall into a US pothole that is largely of its own making, which was behind this week’s massive profit warning.

Its problem is that, in the favourable post-Covid landscape — in which demand for vehicles outstripped supply — it pressed the accelerator much too hard. It raised prices and cut less profitable models, leading to record North American operating margins of more than 16 per cent in 2022, according to S&P Capital IQ, almost double General Motors’ in the same period.

That strategy crashed into a wall. Consumers cut its market share from 13 per cent to 8 per cent since Covid, according to Harald Hendrikse from Citigroup, resulting in a massive build-up in wholesaler inventories. Efforts to clear this, by cutting prices and lowering production, explain much of Stellantis’s profit warning. It will barely break even in North America, its biggest profit pool, in the second half of the year. Free cash flow, which was expected to be positive, will swing to a €5bn to €10bn loss.

That leaves Stellantis lacking any pitch to investors. Capital returns must now be under review. Worse still, it looks like the group’s sector-leading profitability — which briefly made it a market darling — was simply unsustainable. As many a consumer business has found, focusing on costs at the expense of sales is a recipe for fleeting success and lasting distress.

Stellantis’s road back will be long and winding. Rebuilding market share is a laborious process involving new models and brand investment. The alternative — cutting brands and capacity — is painful. Unsurprisingly, rumours about a merger with France’s Renault (which Stellantis denied in February) have resurfaced in the Italian press.

Investors may also be concerned about the size of the problem that the company managed to accumulate before it slammed on the brakes. Trust in the group’s highly regarded boss, Carlos Tavares, has been hit. With his contract expiring in 2026, Stellantis has begun its search for his successor.

With Stellantis, on about three times forward earnings, trading roughly in line with European rivals such as VW and Renault, it is not clear why anyone would climb aboard its recovery trip now.

camilla.palladino@ft.com

TENS of thousands of retirees are set to pay tax on their state pension for the first time next year.

It is expected that around 340,000 pensioners will be told that they need to pay tax when the state pension rises by £460 in 2025.

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Letters from the taxman will land on doorsteps for the first time next April, when the new tax year starts.

This is due to the triple lock, which means the payment made to those aged 66 and over rises every April by the highest out of inflation, the average UK wage increase or 2.5%.

Wages rose by 4% between May and July this year and experts suggest this figure will be the deciding factor in how much the state pension will rise by next year.

With tax thresholds frozen until 2028, this increase will drag around 340,000 pensioners into paying tax for the first time, it has been warned.

This is because the total annual amount of income they receive will be more than their personal allowance.

The allowance is the amount of money you can earn before you have to pay tax on your income.

Under the current rules, this is up to £12,570 each tax year.

Over the next few weeks HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) is writing to 560,000 customers as part of its “simple assessment” process, which will calculate who needs to pay what tax.

It was previously expected that around 140,000 pensioners would receive a letter for the first time this year.

But because of the suspected increase in the state pension, 340,000 people are now likely to get one.

Sir Steve Webb, the former pensions minister, told The Sun: “Whilst pensioners benefit from an above inflation increase in 2025, some of the increase will be clawed back through taxation for more and more pensioners.

“This comes on top of the loss of winter fuel payments for most. Taking account of rising energy bills on top of all these changes, by next April, not many pensioners will feel better off overall.”

Previously all pensioners received a Winter Fuel Payment of up to £300 each year to help cover the cost of energy bills.

But in July the government said that the payment, which is not taxable, would only be made to those on low incomes who claim certain benefits.

These include Pension Credit, Universal Credit, income-related Employment and Support Allowance, income-based Jobseeker’s Allowance, Income Support, Child Tax Credit and Working Tax Credit.

To be eligible you needed to be receiving a benefit during the qualifying week of September 16-22.

Meanwhile, yesterday the energy price cap increased by 10%, adding £149 a year to the average household bill.

Between October 1 and December 31 the energy price cap is set at £1,717 for a typical household which has a dual fuel tariff and pays by direct debit.

The increase will pile further pressure onto pensioners who are struggling to make ends meet this winter.

How will the tax be paid?

HMRC has said that the letters it is sending to pensioners will include detailed calculations of any tax due on the income they receive in the 2023-24 tax year.

Pensioners will need to pay this tax through a Simple Assessment tax bill.

What is the Winter Fuel Payment?

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Consumer reporter Sam Walker explains all you need to know about the payment.

The Winter Fuel Payment is an annual tax-free benefit designed to help cover the cost of heating through the colder months.

Most who are eligible receive the payment automatically.

Those who qualify are usually told via a letter sent in October or November each year.

If you do meet the criteria but don’t automatically get the Winter Fuel Payment, you will have to apply on the government’s website.

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You’ll qualify for a Winter Fuel Payment this winter if:

• you were born on or before September 23, 1958
• you lived in the UK for at least one day during the week of September 16 to 22, 2024, known as the “qualifying week”
• you receive Pension Credit, Universal Credit, ESA, JSA, Income Support, Child Tax Credit or Working Tax Credit

If you did not live in the UK during the qualifying week, you might still get the payment if both the following apply:

• you live in Switzerland or a EEA country
• you have a “genuine and sufficient” link with the UK social security system, such as having lived or worked in the UK and having a family in the UK

But there are exclusions – you can’t get the payment if you live in Cyprus, France, Gibraltar, Greece, Malta, Portugal or Spain.

This is because the average winter temperature is higher than the warmest region of the UK.

You will also not qualify if you:

• are in hospital getting free treatment for more than a year
• need permission to enter the UK and your granted leave states that you can not claim public funds
• were in prison for the whole “qualifying week”
• lived in a care home for the whole time between 26 June to 24 September 2023, and got Pension Credit, Income Support, income-based Jobseeker’s Allowance or income-related Employment and Support Allowance

Payments are usually made between November and December, with some made up until the end of January the following year.

This can be paid online, by bank transfer or by cheque.

If you get a letter after October 31, 2024 for the last tax year you must pay it within three months of the date you received it.

There is also an option to pay in instalments, so long as you pay the full amount by the deadline.

There is an online guide to the Simple Assessment for pensioners which provides more information for those who receive a demand.

Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

Plus, you can join our Sun Money Chats and Tips Facebook group to share your tips and stories

In 2017, Dr. Barbi Phelps-Sandall, an obstetrician who has been practicing in the San Francisco Bay area for more than two decades, had just learned about a new blood test only available at select labs for predicting premature birth when the perfect case walked into her office.

At 40, she was pregnant with her third child. Her first was born full term, but during her second pregnancy, she went into labor at 32 weeks.

Because she had a history of premature labor, she was at higher risk of delivering her third baby early as well. But as the primary earner for her family, she could not afford to take time off on bed rest like she had for her second. Phelps-Sandall decided to give her the blood test to help inform any decision they made about her options.

The test, called PreTRM, tracks levels of two proteins in the blood that tend to rise during the second trimester in women who are at risk of delivering early. This patient’s test was negative. That helped Phelps-Sandall and her patient decide to schedule more regular vaginal exams and get more frequent fetal monitoring, but gave them a little more reassurance that she wouldn’t need bed rest.

The baby ended up sticking to its due date. “The blood test made life so much easier because it made us feel more secure,” says Phelps-Sandall.

She now offers the test to every patient she sees, regardless of their risk of delivering prematurely. “It gives us information we never really had before.” Now, women can order it whether or not their ob-gyn knows about it or offers it.

Who can get the test?

Developed by Sera Prognostics, the test is not yet approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration but is available for doctors to order as a laboratory-developed test, which means that doctors in any state can order the test but only designated certified labs can perform the analysis. (New York state requires its department of health to certify any laboratory-developed tests for any of its residents, and this approval happened in 2018.)

Doctors can order the prescription test and take a few drops of blood from a fingerprick. They then send the sample to the company’s labs in Salt Lake City for analysis. However, not many doctors are even aware of the relatively simple test for identifying women at highest risk of delivering early.

Read More: What to Expect at a Mammogram

Beginning Oct. 1, any woman can also order the test from the company’s website, either by getting a prescription from her physician or connecting with one of Sera’s telehealth providers. The test kit and instructions are sent to expectant mothers’ homes, where they can collect the blood sample and send it to Sera’s lab. Either their doctor or the telehealth doctor will receive and discuss the results with them.

Why is preterm birth dangerous?

Doctors consider any birth before 37 weeks gestation to be preterm, and it can lead to both short- and long-term health complications for newborns—including breathing and feeding problems, weaker immune systems, and lengthy stays in the neonatal intensive care unit. About one in 10 babies born in the U.S. is premature, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“This is a paradigm change,” says Dr. Matthew Hoffman, vice chairman of obstetrics and gynecology at Christiana Care Health System who was involved in the studies of PreTRM. “In obstetrics we are faced with two questions: when and how to deliver the baby. This [test] lets us have insights into who is at risk, and put in preventive services [to prevent preterm birth].”

How the test works

The blood test measures levels of two proteins: the sex-hormone binding globulin, or SHBG, and the insulin-like growth factor binding protein (IBP4). It’s not the absolute levels of each that’s important, says Zhenya Lindgardt, CEO of Sera Prognostics, but the ratio of the two between 18 and 21 weeks gestation. Women with higher ratios—as determined by the company’s studies looking at the levels of women giving birth at term and those giving birth prematurely—are at higher risk of going into labor early compared to those with lower ratios.

Because hormone and protein levels fluctuate constantly during pregnancy, the two proteins PreTRM tracks are carefully chosen and measured only when women are between 18 and 21 weeks of pregnancy. Any earlier or later might yield inaccurate results.

Read More: How to Start—And Stick to—A Breathwork Practice

If PreTRM indicates a higher risk of preterm delivery, then doctors can prescribe aspirin, vaginal progesterone, and more frequent vaginal and fetal checks to ensure the cervix remains closed. Currently about half of preterm births in the U.S. occur in women with known risk factors for early delivery, including a history of previous preterm birth or a shortened cervix. But the rest don’t expect, and their doctors can’t predict, that they will deliver early. “In the study, we identified about a third of women who were at higher risk. We were able to identify a much larger group of women, let them understand their risk, and give them tools to manage that risk,” says Hoffman. “This allows us to approach women who didn’t have a history of prior preterm birth, or didn’t have a shortened cervix.”

The promise of preventing more preterm births

With more widespread use of the test, doctors may gain better knowledge about the myriad factors that can contribute to early labor, and ultimately intervene much earlier than 18 weeks if they better understand other factors that are involved. “We should be thinking of this [test] as a population health component to improve the outcomes for both moms and babies long term,” Hoffman says.

The company is completing another study looking at health outcomes for babies whose mothers used PreTRM; the trial was stopped early last December because the initial results also showed benefit.

“PreTRM allows me to get ahead of things,” says Phelps-Sandall. “We don’t have good predictors for this condition. We know of a conglomerate of things that can explain why 50% of babies are born prematurely, but the other 50% are total surprises. This test allows you to catch a lot of those.”

James Cleverly has bolstered his chances in the Conservative leadership race after his plea to his party to be “more normal” received a warm welcome from delegates in Birmingham, as the four candidates made keynote speeches at the party conference. 

Robert Jenrick, who won more votes from MPs during early voting in the contest, saw his immigration-heavy pitch fail to hold the room, as each contender made back-to-back addresses on Wednesday.

“I was going to vote for Robert Jenrick but I’ve changed my mind,” said Jackie Rance, a Tory member from Berkshire. “James Cleverly was honest and statesmanlike.”

The race to succeed Rishi Sunak was thrown wide open by a four-day event that has seen Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch stoke controversy, while Cleverly put in a popular performance and Tom Tugendhat remained the outsider. 

Cleverly, who came joint third in the second round of voting in the contest, clinched the biggest standing ovation in the auditorium, marking a strong end to the gathering during which he moved into second place in the betting markets, overtaking Badenoch.

A former foreign secretary and home secretary who has also been party chair, Cleverly emphasised his experience and said it was not the time for an “apprentice” to lead the Tories.

He kicked off with an apology, telling the party faithful he was “sorry on behalf of the parliamentary party — who let you down” and warned: “We have to be better, much better.”

The task ahead for the Conservatives was selling the party “with a smile”, he said, arguing: “Let’s be enthusiastic, relatable, positive, optimistic.” He also urged the party to “be more normal”.

Invoking former US president Ronald Reagan, Cleverly said the Tories should follow his lead in cutting taxes, slashing regulation, boosting military spending and winning a landslide. He finished his speech with a riff on one of the Republican’s best-known lines, vowing it could be “morning once again” in Britain.

Jenrick, who has topped the ballot in both rounds of voting by MPs to date, focused heavily on migration in his speech. 

He vowed to quit the European Convention on Human Rights and replace it in UK law with a new British bill of rights if he came to power, as he vowed to “secure our border”. 

Unveiling a five-point plan, Jenrick said he would reject mass migration, focus on cheap and reliable energy, get Britain building again, cut the size of the state and build a more united country.

Doubts rose as to whether his early momentum had stalled, however, as observers suggested he failed to hold the room. 

Tory MP Jesse Norman launched a surprising attack on Jenrick’s performance, branding his speech “lazy, mendacious, simplistic tripe”. 

Badenoch, who had been the favourite going into the contest, won strong applause for a speech in which she said she would “always fight leftwing nonsense”, declared herself a “net zero sceptic” and spelt out how she had challenged views around transgender issues.

She styled herself as a hard-talking truth-teller and said she would deliver tough messages to her party. Her programme for government would start from “first principles” to unpick the legacy of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, which she said persisted in the UK.

She said she would make Labour chancellor Rachel Reeves “wriggle” and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer “sweat”, adding: “We are going to have some fun.”

As candidates seek to attract support of Tory MPs ahead of the next rounds of voting next week — when the field will be whittled down to two, with members voting in the run-off — her campaign also unveiled former cabinet minister Sir David Davis as a new senior MP supporter after her address.

Tugendhat, widely viewed as the outsider, pledged to restore “patriotism and purpose” to the Conservative party, as he said he would focus on delivery rather than ideology.

Focusing heavily on his military career, which he said had fostered his leadership skills, he vowed: “I will serve our country, I will lead with conviction, I will act decisively.” 

A centrist Tory who has tacked rightward in the race, he repeated his pledge to cap net inward legal migration at 100,000 a year and called for tax cuts, simpler planning rules and a reduction in excess regulation. He said his mission was to deliver “prosperity and happiness” to the public.

Cleverly was deemed by many Tory activists to be the big winner of this week’s conference, with a widespread view that Jenrick’s speech had been a disappointment and that he was losing ground.

David Turner from South Shropshire said: “I thought Cleverly did really well. Jenrick didn’t hold the room.” 

Cleverly “came out of the week as the strongest one,” agreed Oliver Bramley, 23. He said Cleverly had a good presence, looked prime ministerial and eschewed “culture war” rhetoric.

The amount of initial public offerings (IPOs) on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) has fallen to its lowest level since the global financial crisis.

There were just eight IPOs this year (to the end of September), according to research by national accountancy group UHY Hacker Young.

This is a decrease from 12 last year and the lowest number since the five recorded in 2007/08.

Only £88.6m was raised through AIM IPOs in 2023/24, compared to £8.83bn raised during the market’s peak year of 2006/07.

UHY Hacker Young said the steep drop in AIM IPOs “highlights a challenging environment for smaller companies looking to raise capital.”

Additionally, there is uncertainty surrounding the tax status of AIM shares.

Concerns have grown that the government might scrap the inheritance tax (IHT) exemption that exists on UK companies that are listed AIM shares.

This has made private investors more “cautious about investing in AIM shares” said UHY Hacker Young.

“Without the interest of private investors the share prices of AIM companies would fall due to lower demand and liquidity.”

Also without the IHT relief attached to investing in AIM shares the market could face greater competition from private equity, “with companies deciding to stay private rather than list on a stock market”.

The IHT exemption attached to AIM shares was introduced to encourage private companies to list on AIM and scale up instead of staying private.

UHY Hacker Young chairman Colin Wright said: “Speculation about the future of tax relief on AIM shares is very unhelpful for the market.

“Now that interest rates are finally falling that should help AIM.

“We hope the new government will make it clear that they are not planning to subject AIM shares to IHT.

“That would lift a big cloud from the UK’s biggest growth company stock market.

“More management teams at growth companies now look toward US markets as they can offer much higher valuations for companies.

“Private equity and venture capital investors can also outcompete AIM due to lower compliance and reporting burdens.

“For a lot of fast-growing companies, the IHT exemption of listing on AIM has been that advantage.”

The number of companies on AIM stood at 704 at the end of August 2024, down by 7% from 753 at the end of 2023 and 58% from its peak of 1,694 companies at the end of 2007.

In September 2024, UHY Hacker Young research also found that the amount of money raised on the AIM through secondary fundraising decreased by 33% from last year.