The big question is what Netanyahu’s strategy is now that he has a momentum he has lacked for so long

October 1, 2024 10:13 am(Updated 10:14 am)

Israel’s “limited” ground incursion in southern Lebanon, combined with continued air strikes on targets in Beirut, signify that Israel has now embarked on what may come to be called the third Lebanon war after those in 1982 and 2006.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected the Lebanon ceasefire which US President Joe Biden has repeatedly said he wanted. Instead, the developments overnight raise the question of whether, with the goal he set himself in Gaza of “total victory” still unfulfilled, he has simply embarked on a policy of forever war.

In stark contrast to the bungled intelligence on Hamas’s intentions and lack of military preparedness that preceded the 7 October attack, Israel had already so far scored stunning success, at least in purely intelligence and military terms. First it penetrated and dismantled Hezbollah’s communication network with the exploding pagers. Then it assassinated most of its top leadership, notably including Hassan Nasrallah himself.  

This is a severe blow not only to Hezbollah but Iran, which depended on the Lebanese Shi-ite militia as its military vanguard in the Arab world. It’s safe to assume, especially in light of Israel’s massive aerial attack on Hezbollah’s positions and rocket launch pads, that the Israel Defence Forces are better prepared for a possible ground war in south Lebanon than they were in Gaza. And the prospect of more civilian deaths and displacements in Lebanon will not worry Netanyahu any more than the more than 41,000 deaths in Gaza have.

That said, if last night’s incursions are expanded, a full ground war in southern Lebanon will not be a walk in the park. The “violent clashes” – to use the IDF’s term for what happened on and near the border – suggest Hezbollah’s seasoned fighters are still capable of hitting back. Like Hamas in Gaza they have an extensive tunnel network. And no one yet knows after Israel’s aerial attacks how many of its long range rockets – many of which Hezbollah boasted could reach all of Israel – are still usable, with a danger of Israeli civilian casualties.

The big question however is what Netanyahu’s strategy is now that he has a momentum he has lacked for so long. Is it limited to what he has defined as a war goal: to make northern Israel safe enough for the return of the 60,000 residents who were forced to flee after Hezbollah began its rocket attacks in support of Hamas in October? If so, it will not be lost on the families of the 101 hostages still held in Gaza that they are counting for less than the seriously inconvenienced, but not actually endangered, displaced citizens of northern Israel.

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Or is he, at the other extreme, seeking to goad Iran into a much bigger conflagration which would almost inevitably drag the United States into a regional war it surely cannot want in the run-up to the November US election?

The US’s own wishes are also not entirely clear. Having called repeatedly for a ceasefire – indeed, one they thought they had secured until Netanyahu reportedly changed his mind on the flight to New York for the UN General Assembly – they were either willing or able to welcome Nasrallah’s assassination, which they say they were not told about before the last minute. Is there anything in the theory that some of Biden’s ceasefire calls are for the benefit for the considerable anti-war elements in the Democrat electorate and that he is more than satisfied to see Iran’s most powerful proxy cut down to size?

But if it is now seriously worried, as it should be, that this could all spiral, it may find that pressure on Iran to contain its reaction may be a better route than applying similar pressure on Israel, which Netanyahu seems to relish ignoring. The military successes so far in Lebanon have largely united Israel in a way that Netanyahu hasn’t tasted since coming into office in December 2022. He is riding much higher than at any time since 7 October. By not going too far he can still no doubt bank his success.

But simply using endless and unlimited fire power which would devastate Lebanon and risk the long threatened regional war could easily come back to haunt him. Wasn’t it the British Prime Minister Robert Walpole who said before the 1739 war on Spain: “They may ring their bells now, before long they will be wringing their hands”?

Good morning from Birmingham. This is a very odd conference in many ways, in that the Tory party is in a state of flux, yet, barring some kind of unexpected shock, the race to become the next Conservative leader is very predictable.

Badenough for you

The big picture at Conservative party conference is that unless something changes, the next party leader will be Robert Jenrick. Tory MPs will vote next week to narrow down the field to a final pair, who will then be put before the members in an online ballot, with the result announced on November 2.

As ever with the Tory party leadership, there are really two routes to the membership — the establishment lane and the rightwing lane. Jenrick, who resigned as immigration minister from Rishi Sunak’s cabinet, has done a remarkably effective job of locking up that rightwing lane. And the polls suggest he will defeat almost anyone who might come up the establishment lane.

Kemi Badenoch, meanwhile, would beat anyone she might face in the vote by Conservative party members, but she has no guarantee of reaching that stage. The former business secretary sparked confusion over her suggestion that maternity pay was “excessive”, which she later rowed back on but appeared to double down on her position yesterday, signalling that the UK’s minimum wage and maternity pay rules are among regulations “overburdening businesses”. She is struggling to get enough support among MPs and the gaffes of recent days have, if anything, aggravated her difficulties among her parliamentary colleagues.

Meanwhile, James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat, the candidates who are seen as pitching for votes from the left of the party, are not going to beat Jenrick unless something changes to shift opinion among party members. Jenrick’s claim in his campaign video that UK special forces are “killing rather than capturing terrorists” was criticised by his rivals — with one military official telling the FT it was an “outrageous accusation” — but it’s the kind of message that Conservative activists want to hear.

Nothing Badenoch has done has won over wavering MPs, and thus far nothing Tugendhat nor Cleverly have done has changed the minds of party members. It may be that one of the 20-minute speeches tomorrow can change the dynamic of the contest — but it is more likely, I think, that the Tory party is just in a holding pattern until Jenrick takes over.

Now try this

This week, I mostly listened to Katy Perry’s 143 while writing my column.

Top stories today

• Case steps down | Simon Case, Britain’s top civil servant, quit yesterday after four years in the job and a job ad was swiftly posted for the £200,000-a-year role. George Parker takes us through potential successors.

• Ofcom: ‘we have got some pretty strong powers’ | Britain’s media regulator will take “strong action” against tech companies that break new rules on content moderation, even if it has limited powers to stop the spread of lies online, the agency’s head has told the FT.

• Donor revealed | Robert Jenrick is facing further questions about donations totalling £75,000 to his Conservative leadership campaign from a company that was loaned money via a tax haven, after businessman Phillip Ullmann revealed himself to be the ultimate source of the funding, reports The Guardian’s Rowena Mason.

• Scores on the doors | In a head-to-head the Conservative membership would choose Kemi Badenoch by 52 per cent to Robert Jenrick’s 48 per cent, according to a YouGov/Sky News poll of 802 Tory members conducted over nine days to Sunday night. The gap was 18 points just six weeks ago, showing a surge in support for Jenrick.

DELIGHTED shoppers will see iconic brands return to the high street including 90s favourites Toys R Us, Topshop and Cath Kidston.

It’s been a tough few years for the high street with many brands shuttering sites or disappearing altogether.

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But, a number of big-name retailers have announced they will be returning to the high street, in a move that’s sure to delight shoppers.

Many of the brands including Toys R Us, Cath Kidston and M&Co are returning under new ownership having previously fallen into administration.

It has been a tough time for retailers since Covid and many have struggled.

The rising cost of living, expensive rents and lower footfall have all played a part in the demise of some of our much-loved high street names.

However, here is a full list of the much-loved brands making their return:

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Cath Kidston

Fashion and homeware chain Cath Kidston will open its first new store next month as it returns to UK high streets.

Renowned for its charming floral designs and quirky vintage-style homeware, Cath Kidston had been a beloved fixture on the British high street since 1993.

However, the retailer crashed into administration last year and the last of its bricks-and-mortar stores closed in June 2023.

Next acquired the Cath Kidston brand, meaning people could continue to buy online and at the retailer’s stores.

Now it is due to open a new store on October 18 at Westfield White City, London.

Cath Kidston has teased the return on Instagram with images of the hoardings branded with its familiar florals.

In the post, it said: “Why yes. Yes, you guessed right.”

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Topshop

Topshop could be making a dramatic comeback to the British high street in a welcome boost for fashion-lovers who mourned its loss.

Earlier this month ASOS announced plans to sell a 75% stake in the brand to Bestseller, a Danish retail group that owns Jack & Jones.

Bestseller, which is also ASOS’s largest investor, has around 2,800 retail stores in more than 30 countries.

Asos had bought Topshop out of administration for £265million in 2021.

As part of the £118million joint venture deal with Bestseller, ASOS will be relaunching Topshop.com as a standalone website.

However, in news that will thrill millennial shoppers, ASOS’s boss also suggested a return to bricks and mortar shops .

Ramos Calamonte said: “It is very early to say that there will be physical stores, but there is no question that they [Bestseller] have a big present presence on the high street.

“We think that they have a lot of potential.”

Industry rumours have suggested they have already started scoping out potential sites for Topshop’s revival, including London’s famous Carnaby Street.

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Toys R Us

Toys R Us’ return to the UK high street has been been warmly welcomed by delighted fans.

Following a rapid roll out of concessions in the last year the iconic 90s toys retailer has announced it will launch in 23 more shops before Christmas.

The new stores are not standalone sites, but are “shop-in-shops” located inside WHSmith stores across the country.

Toys R Us was founded in 1957 by American businessman Charles P Lazarus.

It grew to 100 stores across the UK, but collapsed in 2018 and closed all branches.

Plans for a relaunch were announced in in October 2021 and the first store to open in a WHSmith branch was in York (Monks Cross retail park) on June 10 last year.

Managing director of WHSmith High Street Sean Toal said: “Nearly 40 years ago, Toys R Us first came to the UK, and we take great pride in being the steward of this much-loved brand in the UK.

“We’ve had queues around the block for many openings in the last year which tells you just how much people are loving seeing Toys R Us back again.”

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M&Co

Fashion retailer M&Co closed all of its stores after collapsing into administration in 2022, but has now announced it will return to the high street.

The new store in Newton Mearns, Scotland, will be opening where a previous store was located before the brand fell into administration.

The store opening follows the troubled brand’s acquisition by AK Retail Holdings in May 2023.

The new store will be opening where a previous store was located before going into administration.

Sandra McPherson, head of retail for M&Co stores, said: “We are thrilled to welcome back our loyal customers in-store.

“This expansion symbolises our commitment to bringing stores back to the high street and connecting with customers.”

M&Co fell into administration in December 2022.

Fellow retailer Yours Clothing bought the M&Co brand and intellectual property the following year.

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Wilko

Wilko is back on the high street having closed 400 stores in 2023 after going into administration.

Brits were heartbroken when beloved Wilko announced it would be closing all of its shops back in October last year.

However, a glimmer of hope was given when the brand name was scooped up by The Range, in a £5million deal – meaning that the name would live on.

Customers were overjoyed after learning the store was being relaunched online, and even more so when in a surprising turn of events, physical branches started to open up again.

Locations have since popped up Plymouth, Exeter, Luton, St Albans and Rotherham and its roll out is spreading across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

The stores offer customers all the essentials across home and garden, as well as the usual value Wilko own-brand products, alongside popular named brands.

Chris Dawson, owner of Wilko, is said to be targeting 300 stores over the next five years, and said that all the new shops so far are making a profit.

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Paperchase

In October 2023, Paperchase also made a return after closing all of its 134 shops and concessions earlier in the year.

Fans of the brand were devastated when the retailer disappeared from the high street in April 2023.

It had collapsed three months earlier and failed to find a buyer for the business.

Doors were shut on a total of 106 standalone shops, and 28 concessions within Next and Selfridges stores.

However, supermarket giant Tesco later stepped in and bought the rights to the brand and then went on to launch it in some of its stores.

A total of 261 Tesco stores now stock Paperchase products – see the full list here.

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Ted Baker

Ted Baker is to operate as an online shop following its collapse.

Ted Baker fell into administration in March when a deal collapsed between its American owners, Authentic Brands, and a Dutch operating partner which was meant to run the store operations.

Its final UK high street shops shut their doors in August and its original website stopped accepting orders.

But later that month US-based Authentic Brand Group, said it had secured a deal with a new business partner United Legwear & Apparel Co.

They will now run the brand’s online platform in the UK and Europe.

We wait to see if it will follow others in returning to the high street.

What is happening to the British high street?

The news comes amid a challenging time for the whole of the UK’s retail sector. 

High inflation coupled with a squeeze on consumers’ finances has meant people have less money to spend in the shops. 

Also the rising popularity in online shopping has meant people are favouring digital ordering over visiting a physical store. 

Unseasonably wet weather has also deterred shoppers from hitting the high street. 

This ongoing issue has seen brands such as Paperchase, and The Body Shop.

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Nobody in Helen Hansford’s family understands why she’d accept a job at Westbury Park, not least as an art therapist. But Dr Gil Rudden, one of the mental-health facility’s senior psychiatrists, understands completely. The two are initially attracted by a mutually progressive attitude towards mental health and to the patients in their respective care. It’s 1964, and homosexuality, for example, is still considered an illness to be treated. As Gil points out, “most so-called mental disorders are just behaviour that society doesn’t approve of.”

Within weeks their fledgling relationship has become all-consuming. Although, married as Gil is with two children, “he could hardly be more unavailable.” Their connection deepens when they’re called out to a dilapidated home where an elderly woman, Louisa, lives in squalor with her adult nephew William. The latter either cannot or will not speak, and he doesn’t appear to have left their Croydon house in two decades. Louisa and William Tapper are Westbury Park’s newest patients, and to Helen’s delight, it emerges that William possesses a rare artistic talent.

Shy Creatures establishes a laser-like focus on extraordinary lives set against the suburban postwar setting, just as she did in her novel Small Pleasures. That 2020 novel was a “personal resurrection story” for Chambers, some of whose previous books were out of print when it was published to wide acclaim. Now, her latest and 10th novel is published to real demand.

Chambers’ dialogue is particularly strong, as is the precise study of human interactions in all their subtlety and shades. Her world-building speaks to extensive research but displays a light touch, imbuing the atmosphere of the story and its inhabitants with the smoke of Woodbines, the soot of coal scuttles and bomb shelters not long out of commission. The Tappers’ house reveals “a long, dark hallway with bulging wallpaper the colour of raw liver”, while public attitudes are laid bare in all their double standards: Helen hears with a “jolt” the “venom” directed at Christine Keeler, the “vitriol her parents reserved for women who took up with married men”. Woven throughout is the risk of the facility’s closure, as the mid-20th-century drift towards de-institutionalisation begins with patients soon to be “turf[ed] back out” in a “revolving-door effect”.

We follow Helen as she attempts to unravel the mystery of the silent patient. Interspersed among her chapters are those of William himself. “It’s difficult to get an accurate picture of their life together,” Gil observes of the man and his aunt. “Was he a prisoner or a recluse? Was she?” This picture develops gradually via snapshots of formative experiences, moments of fear and ostracisation, past friendships, school days. The central mystery hinges on William’s past and the origin of his impressive creative skill. His drawings are born from quiet contemplation and observation — in much the same way as he, at Westbury Park, is now observed. Structurally, however, while the first two-thirds linger compellingly on vignette-like scenes, taking their time, the final chapters feel rushed and too busy with revelation.

William’s past, as it unfolds, enables Helen to react against the corset-like confines of a society that turns inward all too often and shuts its doors, one where the threat of “busybodies” and “interference” are a constant fear, and “nervous collapse” the ultimate shame. Through subplots involving her niece, Lorraine, and a lonely downstairs neighbour — “of whom she knew so little, and the other inhabitants of the flats, strangers all” — she observes the “curious bond” needed to create true community and, ultimately, a sense of the bonds she herself must break or make to find her own.

Shy Creatures by Clare Chambers Weidenfeld & Nicolson £20, 390 pages

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