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Germany’s Social Democrats were on course for a narrow victory in elections in the eastern state of Brandenburg, an unexpected reprieve for Olaf Scholz as he prepares to run for a second term as chancellor next year.

Projections by public broadcaster ARD put Scholz’s SPD on 31 per cent, slightly ahead of the far-right Alternative for Germany on 30 per cent.

They suggest the SPD can continue to govern Brandenburg, a state which the party has ruled since German reunification in 1990 and which has long been seen as one of its national strongholds.

That will relieve the pressure on the chancellor, whose approval ratings have slumped in recent months and who has been named by pollsters as the least popular chancellor since reunification. A survey published last week found only 3 per cent of voters support his coalition of SPD, Greens and liberals.

Many in the SPD had privately suggested Scholz should set aside his ambitions of running for a second term in next year’s Bundestag election and improve the party’s fortunes by making way for a more popular politician, such as defence minister Boris Pistorius.

But with the SPD projected to win in Brandenburg, such critical voices may be silenced, at least temporarily.

The preliminary results show that the huge gamble undertaken by Brandenburg’s prime minister, Dietmar Woidke, appears to have paid off.

Woidke had threatened to resign if the AfD came first in Sunday’s election. The threat galvanised moderate voters of all persuasion, who rallied round their prime minister and secured him a narrow victory.

An exit poll by ARD found 75 per cent of SPD voters and 59 per cent of voters for the centre-right Christian Democratic Union said they were “not convinced by the party, but I’m voting for it to prevent a strong AfD”.

“It seems to be the case that it was the Social Democrats, as so often in history, that stopped the extremists on their path to power,” Woidke told supporters on Sunday.

“Dietmar Woidke and the Brandenburg SPD have staged a furious catch-up race,” said Kevin Kühnert, the SPD’s national general secretary, noting that the party had been polling at below 20 per cent a few weeks ago but, according to exit polls, was now above 30 per cent.

Experts said one reason for Woidke’s success was his decision to eschew joint appearances with Scholz and to distance himself from the chancellor’s policies, in a clear attempt to prevent his local SPD being tainted by association with an unpopular Berlin coalition. 

However, the SPD’s apparent success in Brandenburg is unlikely to translate into better approval ratings nationwide. The party — together with its coalition partners, the Greens and liberal Free Democrats — has been blamed by voters for high inflation, surging energy costs and a stagnating economy.

The outcome in Brandenburg was also encouraging for the anti-immigrant AfD, large parts of which, in the view of Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, threaten the country’s democratic system. 

Three weeks ago it won elections in the eastern state of Thuringia, making it the first far-right party to secure victory in a regional poll in Germany’s postwar history. It also came second in neighbouring Saxony, just behind the centre-right Christian Democratic Union.

The party has profited from rising public concern about irregular immigration, especially in the wake of a terror attack in the western city of Solingen in August.

Woidke has headed a coalition of the SPD, CDU and Greens since 2019 and the ARD projections suggest the alliance can continue in power for a further term.

Sunday was also a good day for the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a new left-wing populist party that was only formed in Brandenburg four months ago. ARD projections show the BSW, which like the AfD opposes military aid for Ukraine, won 12 per cent of the vote.

 

The senior Hezbollah leaders killed in an Israeli strike on Friday were meeting to discuss plans to invade Israel in an October 7-style attack, Israel’s president said.

The claims follow IDF statements also claiming Hezbollah were plotting a similar attack in the north and around Galilea.

Isaac Herzog said: “All of these leaders came together in order to launch the same horrific, horrendous attack that we had on October 7 by Hamas, by burning Israelis, by butchering them, raping their women, abducting and taking hostage people and little babies.”

The Israeli airstrike killed two of Hezbollah’s top leaders and at least 14 others, many of them senior Radwan Force commanders, as they met in the basement of a Beirut residential building.

The airstrikes came after thousands of Hezbollah pagers and other communications devices exploded last week in an attack blamed on Israel.

A source told Al-Monitor, a Middle Eastern news website, the meeting was among members of the elite Radwan Force studying “plans for a ground invasion at the heart of the occupied territories”.

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05:30 PM BST

That’s all for today

Thank you for following our live coverage as Hezbollah and Israel exchanged heavy fire.

We will be back soon with more updates and analysis on the ongoing conflict.

Here’s a quick recap of today’s events:

• The senior Hezbollah leaders killed in an Israeli strike on Friday were meeting to discuss plans to invade Israel in an October 7-style attack, Israel’s president said.

• Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel had “landed a series of blows on Hezbollah” after a night of intense cross-border fire and attacks this week in Lebanon.

• Hezbollah deputy chief Naim Qassem said his group was in a “new phase” in its battle against Israel which he described as an “open-ended battle of reckoning”.

• Israeli forces raided Al Jazeera’s Ramallah TV bureau in the West Bank and demanded the broadcaster close for 45 days.

• An Iran-backed militia fired drones at Israel as part of the overnight wave of attacks.

• United Nations secretary-general Antonio Guterres said Sunday that it was “clear” neither side of the grinding war in Gaza was interested in a halt to fighting, and warned of the risk of transforming Lebanon into “another Gaza,” as hostilities flare between Israel and Hezbollah.

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05:10 PM BST

Netanyahu says ‘half of the hostages held by Hamas in Gaza are alive’

In a closed meeting of the Knesset’s foreign affairs and defense committee today, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, reportedly told lawmakers that only half of the 97 hostages held by Hamas in Gaza since October 7 are alive.

“According to the information we have, half of the hostages in Gaza are alive,” he is quoted as saying by Army Radio.

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04:48 PM BST

Hamas praises Hezbollah

Hamas has praised its ally, Hezbollah, after the Lebanese group launched overnight rocket strikes at northern Israel.

Hamas said in a statement:

“Hamas saluted the resistance fighters in Lebanon for their resilience and bravery in facing the Zionist war machine and for their determination to continue fighting in support of the Palestinian people and their resistance in Gaza and the West Bank.”

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04:29 PM BST

Hezbollah deputy chief says in ‘new phase’ of battle with Israel

Hezbollah deputy chief Naim Qassem said Sunday his group was in a “new phase” in its battle against Israel, which it has waged from across the Lebanese border since the Gaza war erupted.

“We have entered a new phase, namely an open reckoning” with Israel, Mr Qassem said at the funeral of a senior Hezbollah commander killed in an Israeli strike this week. “Threats will not stop us… We are ready to face all military possibilities,” he added.

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04:23 PM BST

‘Clear’ that neither side of Gaza war interested in ceasefire, says UN chief

United Nations secretary-general Antonio Guterres said Sunday that it was “clear” neither side of the grinding war in Gaza was interested in a halt to fighting.

“It is for me clear that both sides are not interested in a ceasefire. And that is a tragedy, because this is a war that must stop,” Mr Guterres told US broadcaster CNN, adding that “neither the government of Israel nor the Hamas really want the ceasefire.”

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04:09 PM BST

In pictures

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03:59 PM BST

UN chief warns of risk of transforming Lebanon into ‘another Gaza’

United Nations secretary-general Antonio Guterres has warned of the risk of transforming Lebanon into “another Gaza,” as hostilities flare between Israel and Hezbollah.

“What concerns me (is) the possibility of transforming Lebanon (into) another Gaza,” Mr Guterres said on CNN ahead of the annual gathering of world leaders at the UN.

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03:50 PM BST

EU ‘extremely’ concerned by escalation in Lebanon

The European Union is “extremely concerned” about an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, and is calling for an “urgent” ceasefire, said Josep Borrell, the EU foreign policy chief, on Sunday.

“The European Union is extremely concerned about an escalation in Lebanon after the attacks Friday in Beirut,” Mr Borrell said in a statement, calling for a “ceasefire” along the demarcation line separating them, “as well as in Gaza”.

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03:40 PM BST

UK calls for ‘immediate ceasefire’ between Israel and Hezbollah

David Lammy, the UK Foreign Secretary, has called for an “immediate ceasefire” after a “worrying escalation” between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, as heightening cross-border tensions led to fears of an all-out war.

“Our message to all parties is clear: we need an immediate ceasefire from both sides so that we can get to a political settlement, so that Israelis and Lebanese civilians can return to their homes and live in peace and security,” Mr Lammy said in a speech at the Labour party’s annual conference.

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03:24 PM BST

Hezbollah says confrontation with Israel is now ‘open-ended battle of reckoning’

Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s deputy secretary-general, said that the group had entered a new phase of its battle with Israel which he described as an “open-ended battle of reckoning,” in comments made on Sunday during a funeral for a top commander killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs on Friday.

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03:15 PM BST

Watch: Northern Israel hit by rockets after Hezbollah confirms 16 dead in Beirut attack

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03:06 PM BST

Drones fired at Israel from Iraq

An Iran-backed militia fired drones at Israel as part of the overnight wave of attacks.

The Islamic Resistance, an umbrella group of Iran-backed Iraqi militias, launched drones targeting a military base in Israel on Sunday as it reaffirmed its commitment to “destroying the enemies’ strongholds”.

The Israeli military says it intercepted multiple aerial devices approaching Israel from the direction of Iraq. It added that the targets did not cross into Israeli territory and no injuries were reported.

The Islamic Resistance has launched several attacks on Israeli targets over the past year – one attack by the group killed three US personnel and wounded 34 others in Jordan in January.

Sunday’s attack comes amid escalating fire exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, heightening fears of a broadening conflict.

Israeli fighter jets hit Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon with one of the most intense bombing raids since the war began this weekend. The Israel Defense Forces said on Saturday night it launched two waves of attacks – one attacking about 290 targets, and a second targeting 110 sites – across southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah meanwhile has launched over 100 rockets at Israel, which the IDF said had been fired “toward civilian areas”.

The United Nations has urged for calm and warned of “imminent catastrophe” if a regional war ensues.

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03:02 PM BST

Foreign Press Association ‘deeply concerned’ over Al Jazeera raid

The Foreign Press Association (FPA) has said it is “deeply concerned” over the Israeli raid this morning that forced the closure of Al Jazeera’s Ramallah bureau in the occupied West Bank.

In a statement posted to X, the FPA said:

“The Foreign Press Association is deeply troubled by this escalation, which threatens press freedom, and urges the Israeli government to reconsider these actions. Restricting foreign reporters and closing news channels signals a shift away from democratic values.”

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02:53 PM BST

Israel army says Al Jazeera TV office in West Bank ‘used to incite terror’

The Israeli military said on Sunday that it closed the Al Jazeera TV office in Ramallah, in the occupied West Bank, because it incited “terror”.

The closure order was signed after a legal opinion and intelligence assessment “determined that the offices were being used to incite terror, to support terrorist activities and that the channel’s broadcasts endanger the security and public order in both the area and the State of Israel as a whole,” a military statement said.

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02:40 PM BST

Military escalation not in Israel’s ‘best interest’, says White House

A regional military escalation is not in Israel’s “best interest,”  John Kirby, the White House national security spokesman, said on Sunday, as heightening cross-border tensions between Israel and Lebanon have led to fears of an all-out war.

“We don’t believe that escalating this military conflict is in their best interest,” Mr Kirby said on ABC’s “This Week,” adding that the United States was “saying this directly to our Israeli counterparts.”

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02:28 PM BST

Watch: Patients in Haifa moved deep underground after Hezbollah attacks

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02:01 PM BST

UK foreign minister says more sanctions possible over West Bank violence

Britain will keep under review possible new sanctions against Israeli settlers in the West Bank and will act if it has to, foreign minister David Lammy said on Sunday, adding he was concerned by actions that were inflaming tensions.

Britain announced sanctions against Israeli settlers in February and May this year over what it said was extremist groups perpetrating settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank.

Mr Lammy, who became foreign minister in July after a Labour election victory, indicated the new government would take a similar approach and said that further sanctions were possible.

He added that, notwithstanding Israel’s genuine security concerns in the West Bank, “we are very worried about escalatory behaviour, very worried about inflamed tensions.”

“I’m absolutely clear: if we have to act, we will act, and I’m in discussions with G7 partners particularly and European partners on that,” Mr Lammy said.

“I’m not announcing further sanctions today, but that is kept under close review, and as you would expect, I am deeply, deeply concerned.”

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01:45 PM BST

Lammy: ‘Cannot be a moment to recoil from rule of law’

David Lammy said “this cannot be a moment to recoil from the rule of law” when asked why the Government had begun to take some steps which some may see as critical of Israel.

The Foreign Secretary was questioned on why recent decisions on arms exports and restoring funding to UNRWA had been taken, and how he would explain these positions to Israelis.

Speaking at a Labour Party conference fringe event hosted by Labour Together, he said: “We in the Labour Party have been calling for a ceasefire now for approaching 10 months. We think there needs to be a hostage deal and there needs to be a ceasefire.

“But, actually, we’re also very clear that in a tough geopolitical environment particularly, this cannot be a moment to recoil from the rule of law and the international humanitarian law architecture that was set up in the wake of the Second World War which our men and women died fighting for, which our country is really clear on.”

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01:11 PM BST

Pictured: Patients in Haifa moved underground amid bombing

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12:48 PM BST

Death toll in Gaza reaches 41,431, says health ministry

At least 41,431 Palestinian people have been killed and 95,818 injured in Israeli strikes on Gaza since October 7, the Hamas-run health ministry said in a statement on Sunday. The toll includes 40 deaths in the previous 24 hours, according to the ministry.

It said thousands of other dead people are most likely lost in the rubble of the enclave.

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12:17 PM BST

Lebanon health ministry says Israeli strikes kill three

Lebanon’s health ministry said three people were killed in separate Israeli strikes on south Lebanon on Sunday, as Israel said it was striking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

In separate statements, the health ministry said one person was killed in “Israel enemy” strikes in three different south Lebanon villages. Hezbollah on Sunday announced one fighter had been killed, without specifying where they died.

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12:00 PM BST

Netanyahu says Israel has ‘landed a series of blows on Hezbollah’

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel had “landed a series of blows on Hezbollah” after a night of intense cross-border fire and attacks this week in Lebanon.

“In recent days, we have landed a series of blows on Hezbollah that it could have never imagined. If Hezbollah did not get the message, I assure you it will get the message,” Mr Netanyahu said in a statement.

“No country can tolerate attacks on its citizens, attacks on its cities. And we, the State of Israel, will not tolerate it either,” he said, vowing to return residents of northern Israel displaced by nearly a year of fighting to their homes.

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11:42 AM BST

Gaza rescuers say Israeli strike on school shelter kills 7

Civil defence rescuers in Gaza City said an Israeli strike Sunday on a school-turned-shelter killed at least seven people, with the Israeli military saying it had targeted Hamas terrorists.

The vast majority of the besieged Gaza Strip’s 2.4 million people have been displaced at least once by the war, with many seeking shelter in school buildings.

Civil defence agency spokesman Mahmud Bassal reported “seven martyrs and a number of wounded, including serious cases, as a result of Israeli shelling of Kafr Qasim School” in the Al-Shati refugee camp.

He said hundreds of displaced Gazans were sheltering there.

The Israeli military said it was targeting Hamas fighters operating from the school grounds, and that its forces had taken steps “to mitigate the risk of harm to uninvolved civilians” including by using “precise munitions” and surveillance.

It said the air force had “conducted a precise strike on Hamas terrorists in the northern Gaza Strip” who were “operating from a compound” at the school complex.

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11:27 AM BST

Watch: Hezbollah rockets hit Haifa suburbs

Hezbollah rockets struck a suburb in the Israeli city of Haifa, destroying cars and homes in the latest escalation of cross-border attacks.

The Israeli military said rockets had been fired “toward civilian areas,” after previous barrages had mainly been aimed at military targets. Video footage shows explosions on leafy roads close to homes, while hospitals in northern Israel have been instructed to shift to war footing.

The attack comes as Israel fighter jets hit Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon with one of the most intense bombing raids since the war began.

The Israel Defense Forces said on Saturday night it launched two waves of attacks – one attacking about 290 targets, and a second targeting 110 sites – across southern Lebanon.

It follows an Israeli airstrike in Beirut on Friday that killed at least 45 people, including one of Hezbollah’s top leaders, and a sophisticated pager attack just days earlier.

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11:16 AM BST

UAE leader seeks to deepen ‘strategic’ ties in US visit during Mideast crisis

UAE president Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan is due Monday in Washington for a first official visit at a time of soaring tensions in the Middle East.

With his upcoming trip, Sheikh Mohamed will become the first sitting president of the oil-rich Gulf monarchy to make an official visit to Washington, and is §scheduled to meet with US president Joe Biden and vice president Kamala Harris.

US officials said the top agenda items were the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and the conflict in Sudan, where the UAE has been accused of backing one of the warring parties – a charge it denies.

The UAE, a federation of sheikhdoms, is one of a handful of Arab states to recognise Israel and enjoys growing clout in the Middle East owing to its oil wealth, business environment and reputation for stability.

It also neighbours oil giant Saudi Arabia, which the US has been pressing to forge relations with Israel in the hope of calming a region pushed to the edge by the Israel-Hamas war.

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10:56 AM BST

Hundreds of thousands seek shelter

Hundreds of thousands of people sought shelter from Hezbollah rockets fired from Lebanon into northern Israel on Sunday, the military said.

“Hundreds of thousands of people had to take refuge in bomb shelters” across northern Israel, military spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani told AFP.

Israel’s civil defence agency ordered all schools in the country’s north closed following the rocket fire.

“It reminds me of October 7 when everybody stayed home,” Haifa resident Patrice Wolff told AFP.

“This is not pleasant. This is war,” said Sharon Hacmishvili, a resident of the area.

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10:45 AM BST

UN warns of ‘catastrophe’

The United Nations special coordinator for Lebanon has urged calm in the Middle East as Israel and Hezbollah continued to trade fire on Sunday, raising fears of a regional war.

“With the region on the brink of an imminent catastrophe, it cannot be overstated enough: there is NO military solution that will make either side safer,” Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert wrote in a post on X.

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10:39 AM BST

Death toll rises to 45 from Israeli strike on Beirut

The death toll from an Israeli air strike that targeted Hezbollah military commanders in Beirut’s southern suburbs this week has risen to 45, Lebanon’s health ministry said Sunday.

“The number of dead has risen to 45 people,” a ministry statement said, updating an earlier toll of 37 from the Friday attack. It said “work continues to remove the rubble for the third day in a row” and that DNA sampling would be used to determine the identities of some of the bodies.

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10:30 AM BST

Herzog denies Israeli involvement in pager attacks

Israel’s president Isaac Herzog has rejected claims Israel was involved in this week’s exploding pager and walkie-talkie attacks in Lebanon.

Speaking to Sky News, Mr Herzog said he “rejects out of hand any connection to this or that source of operation”, adding that Hezbollah had “many enemies”.

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10:28 AM BST

Hezbollah says it targeted Ramat David Airbase with dozens of missiles

Hezbollah said it targeted the Israeli Ramat David Airbase with dozens of missiles in response to what it described as “repeated Israeli attacks on Lebanon,” the group posted on its Telegram channel early on Sunday morning.

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10:13 AM BST

‘We do not want war with Lebanon,’ says Israeli president

Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog, has said that Israel “does not want war” with Lebanon.

Speaking to Trevor Phillips on Sky News, Mr Herzog claimed that the conflict was “instigated” by Iranian proxies in the region.

“Israel is not interested to be at war with Lebanon. We do not want to get into a war with Lebanon,” he said. “But Lebanon has been hijacked by a terror organisation which is also a political party called Hezbollah.”

“Israel is fighting for its well being, its existence, its citizens. That’s what we are doing. And we are doing whatever is the right thing to do,” he added.

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10:09 AM BST

Pictures from the Haifa suburb attack

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09:56 AM BST

Israeli president ‘disappointed’ in new UK Government

There is a “sense of disappointment” in the way the new UK Government has acted towards Israel, Isaac Herzog has said.

The Israeli president told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips on Sky News: “We have outstanding relations with the British Government. We have outstanding relations with the people of Britain.

“I have, personally, very close affinity with His Majesty’s Government and with Britain at large, but we also have to understand that between friends we expect friends and allies to be there for us all the time, as we are for them.

“There is a sense of disappointment in Israel and I have expressed it to my friends.”

He added: “I met with Prime Minister Starmer at the opening of the Olympic Games. We expect that all our allies will be side-by-side with us in combating this terrible situation and fighting, like we are, to bring our hostages back home.”

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09:39 AM BST

Northern Israeli hospitals instructed to shift to war footing

Hospitals in northern Israel have been instructed to transfer their operations to facilities with extra protection from rocket and missile fire, the health ministry said on Sunday.

Rambam hospital in the city of Haifa will transfer patients to its underground, secure facility, the ministry said.

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09:35 AM BST

Watch: Israeli troops raid Al Jazeera TV bureau in West Bank

Israeli forces raided Al Jazeera’s Ramallah TV bureau in the West Bank on Sunday morning, with the broadcaster capturing the moment live.

The Qatar-based channel aired live footage of the Israeli troops storming the channel’s office, handing over a military closure order to one of the Al Jazeera TV staff, before the broadcast was disrupted.

The military order demanded the broadcaster close for 45 days, a move decried by the Palestinian Journalists’ Syndicate as “arbitrary”.

“There is a court ruling for closing down Al Jazeera for 45 days,” an Israeli soldier told Al Jazeera’s local bureau chief, Walid al-Omari, in the live footage. “I ask you to take all the cameras and leave the office at this moment.”

Video showed what appeared to be Israel troops tearing down a banner on a balcony used by the Al Jazeera office. Al Jazeera said it bore an image of Shireen Abu Akleh, a Palestinian-American journalist shot dead by Israeli forces in May 2022.

Israeli communication minister Shlomo Karhi later described the raid as affecting “the mouthpiece of Hamas and Hezbollah,” while the Palestinian Journalists Syndicate denounced the Israeli raid and order.

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09:26 AM BST

Israeli military says it intercepts ‘aerial target’ launched from the east

Israel’s military said it has intercepted a “suspicious aerial target” launched from the east, and that no damage or injuries were reported.

Earlier, an official in the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a grouping of Iran-backed armed factions, said they launched cruise missile and explosive drone attacks at Israel.