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It has been more than a century since an established political party was successfully overtaken by an insurgent newcomer, when the Liberals gave way to Labour.
The rise of Reform UK to its status as a political force that is able to pose a threat to the Conservatives – even with only five MPs, despite its 15 per cent of the vote share – is underscored by the row between Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch over who has the most members.
Nevertheless, if Reform is to finish the job, it will need more than a website counter boasting of its supporters; it will need defections on all sorts of levels, from ordinary voters (22 per cent of Tories from July’s election say they will now vote Reform) to councillors, donors, and MPs.
Reform has already wooed Tories including businessman Zia Yussuf, who is now party chair; billionaire Nick Candy, who is its new treasurer; ex-MPs Andrea Jenkyns and Aidan Burley; and Conservative Home founder Tim Montgomerie. But it needs more high-profile names.
Senior figures claim that many more former and even current Tory MPs are preparing to join, but the really big fish have yet to bite.
Part of the problem could be that senior figures in Reform have very different ideas about who are the best people to attract. But if 2025 is to be the year that propels the party towards bigger wins, then some of the names on its various wishlists (depending on who you talk to) need to come over. Here are a handful of the figures being targeted.
Lost leader
The idea that Boris Johnson could defect to Reform UK seems utterly fanciful, and he has previously said he would not abandon the Conservatives. But The Independent has been told by figures in Farage’s party that some of them would like to see it happen, and do not think it entirely impossible.
The arrival of the billionaire donor Candy makes this speculation a little more interesting. He brings cash to the party, but he also has longstanding friendships with both Farage and Johnson as well as with Donald Trump, who could prove to be an important link himself. One source has said that Candy is exactly the sort of person who could bring Farage and Johnson together, and Johnson thence into Reform.
Furthermore, Kemi Badenoch’s election as Tory leader has rather closed the door on Johnson coming back as a Tory MP, given that she played a part in his downfall.
The thought of Johnson in Reform may not be attractive to Farage; history shows that there is never room for two enormous personalities in the parties he has run. But if it could be pulled off, it could be the end of the Tories and represent a realignment on the right.
In truth, it would almost certainly only happen if the Conservative Party had all but collapsed already, leaving little choice.
Darlings of the right
Suella Braverman is a name often quoted as a likely defector. The former home secretary certainly has the rightwing credentials for Reform and her husband Raul recently defected to the party.
But she was clear with The Independent that she has no plans on following her husband. She is understood to feel loyalty to her constituency party and she still harbours Tory leadership ambitions.
Nevertheless, Reform has pursued her. She would provide a strong, charismatic female presence they are desperately missing at the moment and it would be a signal to the right of the Tories that the game is over.
Robert Jenrick has regularly been banded around as a possible defector since losing in the final vote-off with Ms Badenoch. There seems to be little evidence that he wants to defect, despite becoming an anti-immigration hardliner whose rhetoric often echoes Reform.
The reality is that if Tory MPs do defect, they will likely come from the list of people who supported Jenrick.
Brexiteers
Mark Francois, chairman of the European Research Group (ERG) of Brexiteers and in many ways the very epitomy of a Brexiteer MP has certainly been a target of conversations for Reform.
However, it is understood he is still angered at the way Reform split the vote for many of his Tory friends who subsequently lost their seats and finds it difficult to forgive Farage or Richard Tice even though ideologically he is very much on their page.
Francois has also always claimed that he is too much embedded in the Tory family to want to switch parties. Added to all this, Ms Badenoch has wisely given him a job as number two in her defence team.
Jacob Rees-Moggwould certainly be a high-profile scalp should he defect. A fellow GB News host and friend of Farage’s and others in Reform, his sister Annunziata was a Brexit Party MEP. Yet his tribal links to the Tories make this move seem unlikely although not impossible.
Defeated MPs
Marco Longhi, the former MP for Dudley North, is a name that often crops up. He was heavily wooed before the general election and resisted. There were suggestions he was offered a large amount of money to defect and said no. But he is also still close friends with Lee Anderson who did end up joining Reform.
Again, there is little evidence he would switch and plenty of denials (but Andrea Jenkyns also resisted Reform’s charms before the election and she is now their mayoral candidate for Lincolnshire.)
Other so-called red wall Tory MPs have also been mentioned such as Brendan Clarke-Smith (formerly Bassetlaw) and Tom Hunt (formerly Ipswich). But both of them though have made it clear they want to stand for the Tories again.
The thinker
Phillip Blond, director of the RespPublica thinktank, Conservative visionary, former adviser of David Cameron, inventer of Red Toryism and the Big Society, is a name to look out for. In some ways, he is among the more likely defectors.
Blond has been stopped from standing for parliament by the Conservatives – probably because he is too much of his own person and quite outspoken. But he is one of the few genuine intellectuals in conservatism and would be quite a catch for Reform. Possibly all they need to do is give him a winnable seat to run in.
A defection by Blond would be similar to the shock caused by ConHome founder Tim Montgomerie’s departure; it would mean not only money leaving the Conservatives, but also those with ideas.
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