New poll confirms that Nigel Farage’s Reform UK set to make 2025 a three-way race

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Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is just three points behind the Tories as the latest Techne UK tracker poll appears to confirm a three-way split at the top of UK politics.

The rightwing populist party this week unveiled former Tory donor Nick Candy, better known as the husband of actress Holly Valance, as a member as well as controversial former Conservative MP Aidan Burley, infamous for once organising a Nazi themed stag do.

According to the latest poll, Reform have nudged up one point to 22 per cent, with Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives on 25 per cent and Keir Starmer’s under fire Labour government on 27 per cent, both unchanged.

The Lib Dems are down one point on 11 per cent while the Greens are unchanged on 7 per cent.

Techne UK chief executive Michela Morizzo said: “As we get very close to the Christmas holiday season our regular tracker poll reflects a fairly normal seasonal response from our randomly sampled interviewees – one of status quo continuing.

“The Labour Party remain static on 27 per cent of national vote share whilst the Conservatives remain static too – 25 per cent of national vote share.

“Reflecting a current trend Reform UK continue to grow in support – now at 22 per cent of national vote share.

“People now prefer to concentrate on the Christmas atmosphere and normally get colder with respect to politics. Let’s see if this trend will continue until the beginning of the New Year. For sure an important element that UK politics will take into the new year is a three political forces, quite close one to the other and it seems 2025 will be very challenging!”

The poll of 1,634 people on Wednesday and Thursday last week showed that 40 per cent were not able to supprt any of the parties – 29 per cent would not vote if there was an election while 11 per cent were uncertain.

When the total figure of respondents, including the 40 per cent who do not currently support any political party, is taken into account the poll revealed that the contest is extremely tight putting Labour on 16 per cent, Tories 15 per cent and Reform 13 per cent.

Keir Starmer’s major speech to reset his government does not appear to have inspired confidence with 57 per cent not confident in his government compared to just 28 per cent who are confident in his government, down one from last week.

While Labour also still has a clear lead among younger voters, Starmer’s party is now in third place with voters aged 55 and over.