A Boxing Day bust-up is probably not going to be enough for Reform UK to supplant the Tories as the main political party on the centre-right.
Badenoch is facing calls to apologise after Farage seemingly disproved her claims of Reform UK “fraudulently” ramping up its membership ticker.
The Leader of the Opposition was even slapped with a “community note” by X chief Elon Musk after several news outlets appeared to verify Reform UK’s claims.
Despite the threat of legal action, the 2025 Local Elections will prove far more consequential for both Badenoch and Farage.
2025 is now Nigel Farage’s golden opportunity to cement Reform UK as Britain’s incoming opposition
PA
Reform UK has already likened Sir Keir Starmer to former Zimbabwean dictator Robert Mugabe after Thurrock’s Labour-led unitary authority made a major hint at axing its polls on May 1.
The populist party currently has just 50 local councillors across the country, with more than half coming as a result of defections from Tories.
Seven were also won through local council by-elections held since the 2024 General Election and the remainder come from switches from previously independent councillors.
But by-election after by-election has shown that Reform UK is leaving its mark on British politics.
And the contests so far pencilled in for May 1 could see Farage land a hammer blow on Britain’s long-standing two-party political system.
Farage returned 165 councillors from across the authorities up for grabs as Ukip leader, with Reform UK’s base already totalling 12 across the very same areas.
Nigel FaragePAThe latest two MRP polls by both More in Common and JL Partners suggest that the 2025 Local Elections could prove even more fruitful for Reform UK.
A so-called “turquoise droplet” would see the populist party surge from just five seats in the House of Commons to more than 70 seats.
However, and importantly for Farage, areas holding polls in May could help propel Reform UK forward in a momentum-building moment.
Reform UK has already been making inroads in Devon, Doncaster, Essex, Kent, Lancashire, Lincolnshire, North Northamptonshire, Nottinghamshire, Suffolk, and Staffordshire.
Eagle-eyed political observers might even want to take note of the fresh mayoral contests in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull & East Yorkshire.
Polling conducted by Stonehaven puts Reform UK’s former Conservative MP candidate Dame Andrea Jenkyns just five-points behind the Tories in Greater Lincolnshire.
Kemi Badenoch made her pitch to Tory members last October
GB NEWS
The populist party is also level-pegging with Labour in Hull & East Yorkshire on 30 per cent of the vote.
The landscape-shifting MRP poll also poses another problem for Badenoch’s Conservative Party.
Despite surging from 121 to 222 MPs, a surface-level observation of either MRP poll masks the three-party split in support.
Compared to the 2021 Local Elections, when most of these councils last held polls, Tory support has collapsed.
In fact, Boris Johnson led the Tories into the campaign at a history-defying high-point, snatching Hartlepool and gaining 235 councillors.
It will be a tough task for the Tories to cling onto hundreds of seats across predominantly Conservative-held council areas again, potentially stifling any rhetoric of a resurgence since the 2024 General Election.
Keir Starmer won the 2024 General Election
PA
If Farage is going to march towards Downing Street, or for that matter become the official opposition in 2029, he’s going to have to steamroll over the Tories on May 1.
And if Badenoch is to avoid Conservatives circling in on her stint as leader, the no-nonsense North West Essex MP is going to have to put up one hell of a fight to prevent an early electoral set-back.
Reform UK need to act to keep the pressure on Badenoch.
The populist party only fielded candidates in 12 per cent of wards contested in 2024’s Local Elections.
Failing to field candidates across the more than 2,000 wards up for grabs in May will only let the Tories off the hook.
Despite haemorrhaging support since July 4, Sir Keir Starmer finds himself in a relatively comfortable position ahead of the 2025 Local Elections.
For anyone hoping to give Labour a bloody-nose, the Prime Minister could only, in the worst possible scenario, suffer a minute-long nose-bleed.
Labour holds just 350 seats across the wards currently earmarked as being up for grabs, controlling just three out of the 32 authorities in play.
It is a low-bar for Labour but challenges could still potentially arise in Doncaster, Thurrock and Hull & East Yorkshire.
Liberal Democrat Sir Ed DaveyPAAnd if a by-election is forced in Runcorn & Helsby after incumbent MP Mike Amesbury allegedly sucker-punched a constituent then the challenge does get that little bit steeper.
Labour shouldn’t, I might as well repeat, shouldn’t, lose Runcorn & Helsby. Amesbury won the Cheshire constituency by 34.8 per cent on July 4.
But More in Common now puts Labour just 13 per cent ahead of Reform UK, with JL Partners suggesting a somewhat more comfortable 18-point advantage.
However, with punishment for incumbency being an increasingly common axe wielded by disgruntled voters, Reform UK could hope to fire out of the blocks and take the fight to Labour.
It should, of course, remain noted that no by-election is yet scheduled. Labour removed the whip from Amesbury and the 55-year-old still awaits his day at Cheshire Magistrates’ Court on January 16.
But it is not just Reform UK who poses a threat to Labour. The Green Party also sits at a low-bar on just 64 councillors in local election wards up for grabs.
Green Party co-leaders Carla Denyer and Adrian RamsayPAHowever, Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsey will hope for a surge from university towns and liberal-leaning urban areas.
Cambridgeshire, East Sussex, Suffolk and Worcestershire remain likely bastions for eco-friendly councillors.
The West of England’s mayoral vote could also kickstart a Green revolt if Denyer can mirror her miraculous victory in Bristol Central on July 4.
Liberal Democrats have also made a modest one ward net gain since the 2024 General Election.
However, Sir Ed Davey will hope his centrist gang can make much more significant inroads as Britain’s favourite protest vote.
Nigel Farage enjoys a pint in Shoreham, West Sussex
PA
Liberal Democrats were successful in Tory low-points, including 2023 and 2019, returning thousands of councillors as chaos gripped the Conservative Party.
However, during the New Labour years, it was hard to detect an orange appeal in much of England as the Liberal Democrats either suffered setbacks or made trench-warfare-style gains.
Nonetheless, both MRP polls suggest that Davey’s Blue Wall breakthrough is here to stay, admittedly in a much more precarious form.
The Remain-voting shires of Cambridgeshire, Surrey and even Buckinghamshire could prove tasty for those hoping for further Liberal Democrat victories.
The truth is that there is so much up for grabs in 2025.
And if any of this is can really tell us anything about the political twists and turns ahead, it’s that Farage’s Reform UK were the ones popping champagne corks at midnight, or perhaps the pint-clutching Clacton MP preferred some British bitter instead.
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