Reform UK’s road to power will slip under Westminster’s radar, predicts Britain’s favourite elections guru.
Professor Sir John Curtice’s prediction comes as Nigel’s Farage’s insurgent party pulls ahead in the polls, overtaking Labour for the first time.
Its vote share in recent by-elections and predictions for parliamentary elections in both Wales and Scotland suggest a political earthquake is coming.
According to Curtice, Reform’s roadmap to power is not all that complicated, but it will be a high-wire balancing act.
Nigel’s Farage’s insurgent party has pulled ahead in the polls, overtaking Labour for the first time
PA
“The only thing you really have to watch with Reform, which sounds like an absolutely dull story, is the kind of thing that nobody in Westminster is going to notice,” he said, adding that the “crucial” coup for Reform will be to “succeed in creating a party organisation across the country”.
As he points out, UKIP – Nigel Farage’s former party – never managed to broaden its appeal in this way and become a viable party of government.
The first test will come in local elections next May, Curtice says, adding that it remains to be seen whether the party can put up a “decent slate of candidates”.
Party insiders are acutely aware of this challenge, especially with all the publicity Reform is getting.
In a separate interview with GB News, Tory veteran Tim Montgomerie, who defected to Reform last week, went as far as to say this is “the beginning of their problem”.
He told GB News: “They [Reform] have had a problem in the past with certain dodgy candidates getting through. So the party must vet candidates so that they don’t have one good May [election] with lots of candidates being elected only to find out those same candidates cause trouble over the following months.”
Montgomerie added: “Vetting those candidates will be at least as important as getting them elected.”
When GB News put these concerns to Reform MP for South Basildon and East Thurrock James McMurdock, he said: “We’re taking that very, very seriously.”
Nigel Farage’s former party – never managed to broaden its appeal to become a viable party of government
Twitter/Nigel Farage
He acknowledged that there’s no “quick answer”, especially as Reform “encourages people to step forward so we have the widest and biggest pool of candidates” ahead of the upcoming elections.
However, the party is “conscious” of quality rising in lockstep with quantity, particularly as it looks to become a credible alternative to the two main parties, McMurdock tells GB News.
The next question is whether they can “profit” from the the Conservatives “defending a very high baseline” in the local elections next May, and then march on to 2026, where at the moment, the opinion polls suggest Reform would potentially constitute a “blocking minority” both in the Holyrood and the Senate, Curtice adds.
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