Politics
Reform UK eyes three MAJOR electoral upsets TODAY
Reform UK is eyeing three major electoral upsets today as Farage’s party looks to inflict its first defeats on Labour in 2025.
By-elections, important bell-weather tests that reveal which way the country is voting, have been a nightmare for incumbent Labour since July’s General Election.
Keir Starmer’s party has suffered a net loss of 27 seats, while the Conservatives have recorded a net gain of 22 seats. Reform is up seven.
Today, five more council seats are up for grabs, with Reform poised to mount a strong challenge in three. They are:
Town ward, Newcastle-under-Lyme
Reform’s best chance of causing an upset is likely to come in Newcastle-under-Lyme, Staffordshire, adjacent to Stoke-on-Trent.
Neill Antony Walker is standing for the anti-immigration party. He came third in July’s General Election, 2,000 votes behind the Tories and 6,000 behind eventual winner Adam Jogee of Labour.
But a sophisticated poll-aggregating model shows Reform has eliminated the gap to Labour in the constituency in the time since the election.
The Nowcast model puts Reform on 31.4 per cent in the patch, 0.4 per cent behind Labour and six per cent ahead of the Tories.
Projection for Newcastle-under-Lyme
ElectionMapsUK
Much Woolton and Hunts Cross ward, Liverpool City
An outside chance of an upset for Reform comes in the Much Woolton and Hunts Cross ward in south Liverpool.
A safe Labour area, Reform candidate Adam Heatherington is hoping to capitalise on record levels of mistrust in Starmer’s party.
Heatherington has been unsuccessful in his first 13 elections in which he has stood for UKIP, the Brexit party, as an independent and now Reform UK.
The Nowcast model shows Heatherington faces a tough task. The model puts Labour safely out in front as the largest party, though down 7.9 per cent.
Reform is up 6.7 per cent into second.
Heatherington said: “We have been well received on the doorsteps and there has been an increasing support for Reform UK.
“This is due to the mistrust of Labour which has neglected the working class for their own selfish ideology.
“Labour has put massive distrust and disappointment in the hearts of voters and they look to Reform UK as the last hope for saving Great Britain.”
Liverpool Garston projection
ElectionMapsUK
Bannockburn ward, Stirling
Reform’s only realistic chance north of the border comes in Bannockburn, one of Stirling’s council wards.
William Docherty is standing for Reform’s party here, who is channelling Robert the Bruce for his campaign.
Docherty said: “Bannockburn has always been a symbol of perseverance and victory against the odds.
“Inspired by Robert the Bruce, who turned defeat into glory right here on our soil, I am stepping forward once again to fight for the future of our community.
“People are ready for a new kind of politics.”
The ward falls within the Westminster seat of Stirling and Strathallan, currently projected as a Labour loss by Nowcast model.
Starmer’s party is set to lose it to the SNP however, with Reform, the Tories and Labour competing for second, though Reform is the only party to have recorded significant growth in support.
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Stirling and Strathallan projection
ElectionMapsUK
Elsewhere, there is a Liberal Democrat ward up for grabs in Edinburgh and a Labour ward heading to the polls on Shetland.
Labour is guaranteed to lose the Shetland ward as two independent candidates are standing unopposed.
It comes after Reform UK enjoyed another strong batch of poll results over the last seven days.
MoreInCommon put the party joint first on 25 per cent yesterday, while YouGov projected a score of 24 per cent putting them second two points behind Labour on Tuesday.
DeltaPollUK put Reform third on 22 per cent, while Find Out Now had Reform in joint first on 25 per cent last week.
It is important to remember polls do not predict the future but show a snapshot of public opinion on a certain day.
Further, council wards are affected by local issues and suffer from low turnouts, making them difficult to predict.
Local elections are due across England in May. There are also elections for the Welsh and Scottish parliaments in May 2026.
Politics
Labour LOSING London to Tories and Reform as report shows 585,000 illegal migrants in capital
Labour’s grip over London is breaking as voters desert Starmer’s party for the Tories and Reform, a shocking map has shown.
It comes after a report put the number of illegal migrants in the nation’s capital at 585,000, intensifying concerns migration is putting unsustainable strain on Britain’s public services and infrastructure.
The map, which has been generated by aggregating recent national polling weighted for recency and historic pollster accuracy, shows Labour’s heartland crumbling from the outside in.
It shows Starmer’s party losing eight seats around the edge of London to three different parties if an election was held tomorrow.
Hendon, Chelsea and Fulham, Chipping Barnet and Uxbridge and South Ruislip would all go Conservative, Bethnal Green and Stepney and Ilford North would fall to independents while Bexleyheath and Crayford and Dagenham and Rainham would swing right to Reform.
The map also shows Reform gaining Hornchurch and Upminster from the Tories in what would be historic ‘firsts’ for the disruptor party.
EXPLORE: Current voting intention of London constituencies
Projected electoral map of London. Note Reform gains in the east, Tory gains in the north west and two independent gains in Wes Streeting and Rushanara Ali’s seats.
GBN
Current Electoral Map of London.
GBN
Voter frustration with uncontrolled migration has been a major driver in Labour’s dwindling fortunes in the capital.
A recent report compiled on behalf of Thames Water estimated one in 12 of the population was living in London illegally.
The report combined migration estimates from the Pew Research Center in the US, the London School of Economics, Office for National Statistics with the number of National Insurance registrations for non-EU foreign nationals over a nine-year period.
The analysis put the number of illegal migrants in London at a minimum of 390,355 and a maximum of 585,533, with a median figure of 487,944.
The Home Office does not have any comprehensive data on the number of people coming to the UK illegally, aside from Channel crossings.
In 2025, 1,019 have crossed the Channel is small boats so far this year, the joint fastest rate since records began in 2018.
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Farage blasts Labour as Channel crossings soar
NIGEL FARAGE
Reform UK London AM, Alex Wilson said: “The news that one in 12 Londoners are illegal migrants is a truly shocking revelation. The establishment’s mass immigration experiment has ruined the fabric of our once great capital city.
“Given these numbers, it’s no shock it’s impossible to get on London’s housing ladder. It’s no shock crime is hitting record highs, year after year. It’s no shock that a rape is reported every hour in London.
“These eye watering numbers should be a wake up call for the establishment. Enough is enough, London expects better. It’s time to take back control of our capital city. Only Reform UK will save London.”
A Home Office spokesman said: “This Government is strengthening global partnerships and rooting out the criminal gangs who profit from small boat crossings which threaten lives.
“We have also removed 16,400 illegal migrants in just six months, the highest figure in half a decade, making it clear that those who arrive illegally will be returned.”
A Thames Water spokesman said: “Water companies have a regulatory obligation to undertake a ‘water balance’, which includes understanding how much water our customers use on a per-person basis, and how it is distributed across our supply area.
“Analysis to estimate ‘hidden and transient’ populations is carried out by an independent firm of consultants, who draw from publicly available sources including census, surveys, and published academic research. Thames Water played no part in the writing of the report and the conclusions drawn are those of the independent firm that carried out the research.”
Politics
Drivers given matter of weeks until Rachel Reeves tax hikes start impacting millions of Britons
Drivers have been warned they have just weeks to prepare for significant changes to motoring laws, with electric vehicle owners set to face the biggest impact from April.
The warning comes as a series of new regulations and tax changes will come into force impacting millions of drivers across the UK.
One of the biggest changes involves EVs losing their Vehicle Excise Duty exemption, while also facing the end of London Congestion Charge benefits later in the year. The changes mark a substantial shift in how vehicle ownership is regulated and taxed in the UK under a Labour Government.
Petrol and diesel drivers will also be affected by various updates, including changes to fuel pricing transparency and new safety requirements.
Do you have a story you’d like to share? Get in touch by emailingmotoring@gbnews.uk
Electric car tax changes will come in for the first time in AprilPA/DVLA Under the rules announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in the Budget last year, from April 1, electric vehicle owners will be required to pay Vehicle Excise Duty for the first time, marking the end of their tax-free status. Newly registered EVs will face a £10 charge in their first year of registration.
This will increase significantly to £195 annually from the second year onwards. For luxury electric vehicles priced over £40,000, owners will face an additional expensive car supplement of £410 per year, payable for five years.
The changes are part of the Government’s standard uprating of Vehicle Excise Duty rates, which aims to maintain tax receipts in real terms.
London’s electric vehicle drivers will face another significant change later in the year as their Congestion Charge exemption comes to an end on December 25.
From this date, all vehicles including electric and hydrogen-powered models will need to pay the full £15 daily charge when driving through central London.
This replaces the current system introduced by Mayor Sadiq Khan where EV owners can pay £10 for an exemption from the Congestion Charge.
However, due to the seasonal closure of the charging zone, the new rules will effectively begin from January 2, 2026, as there is no Congestion Charge between December 25 and January 1.
Meanwhile company car drivers will see Benefit-in-Kind tax rates increase by one per cent from April with electric vehicle rates rising from two per cent to three per cent.
But petrol and diesel vehicles will face even steeper increases in their company car tax rates. New regulations for EV charging providers will require them to meet strict Government standards for reliability and accessibility.
Providers who fail to comply with these standards could face fines of up to £10,000 per charger. The measures aim to enhance the charging experience for EV drivers while ensuring consistent access to reliable infrastructure across the UK.
John Wilmot, CEO of LeaseLoco.com, said: “These upcoming changes show a significant shift in how vehicle ownership is incentivised and regulated in the UK particularly for electric vehicles.
“The removal of key EV financial perks, such as the VED exemption and Congestion Charge discounts, will undoubtedly impact the cost effectiveness of owning or leasing an EV.”
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EVs attract a two per cent BiK tax rate PAHe added: “For many drivers, these incentives were a major factor in the decision to transition to electric. So its possible that these changes could actually slow the momentum of EV adoption, particularly among drivers who were on the fence about making the switch.”
Additional changes coming in 2025 include the nationwide Fuel Finder scheme, requiring all petrol stations to share real-time fuel prices.
HGV operators in Greater London will need safety permits from May 4 under the Direct Vision Standard, assessing driver visibility of vulnerable road users. Elsewhere, Scotland is set to implement a nationwide 20mph speed limit in urban and residential areas during 2025.
Politics
Kwasi Kwarteng launches scathing attack on Labour’s plans to reduce prison sentences for women
Former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng launched a blistering attack on Labour’s plans to reduce prison sentences for women, branding the proposal as “insane”.
In a furious response, Kwarteng insisted “justice should be blind” regardless of gender or background.
The Senate Banking Committee voted 13-11, along party lines, on Thursday to advance Scott Turner’s nomination to be secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, with Democrats voting no over concerns about Turner’s unfinished FBI background check.
If confirmed by the full Senate, the NFL veteran and former developer would run a department with a $70 billion budget and roughly 8,000 employees at a time when housing has risen to the forefront politically after costs soared in the wake of the pandemic.
Turner told the committee during his confirmation hearing last week that “HUD is failing at its most basic mission,” pointing to the high cost of housing and a recent surge in homelessness. But he offered few specifics on how he would turn things around, saying he wanted first to take stock of which programs are working and which aren’t.
Labour MP Matthew Pennycook has defended the Government’s new planning reforms, insisting that local communities will retain their right to object to developments.
Speaking to GB News, Pennycook emphasised that “no one is saying that the views of local communities should be ignored”.
Politics
Reform UK chairman blasts Tories as a group that ‘deal entirely in deception, falsehoods, and betrayal’
Reform UK chairman Zia Yusuf has expressed disappointment at Suella Braverman’s suggestion for an electoral pact between the populist party and the Conservatives.
Speaking on GB News, Yusuf firmly rejected any possibility of a deal with the Tories, questioning how Reform could work with a group that “deal entirely in deception, in falsehoods, and betrayal”.
READ THE FULL STORY HERE
Politics
Reform UK unveils plan to STOP the boats upon entering No10 as chairman says Royal Navy on standby
Reform UK Chairman Zia Yusuf has revealed how his party would tackle illegal immigration into Britain if it won the keys to Downing Street.
It comes as migrants continue to make their way across the English Channel despite commitments made by the two main parties to bring down the numbers.
More than 1,000 small boat migrants have crossed the English Channel illegally since the beginning of the year, GB News can exclusively reveal.
The milestone figure was reached a week ahead of last year, when 1,000 migrants had crossed by 28 January.
Nigel Farage would call in the Royal Navy to control numbers, says Reform chairman
Getty Images/GB News
Reacting to a new leaked confidential report that found one in 12 – or 6000 – illegal immigrants are currently living in London, Yusuf has revealed how Nigel Farage would attempt to bring down the numbers if he were to win the next General Election.
He told GB News: “We’ve been very clear that if you come here illegally, if your first act on coming is to break our laws, you will be deported. But first of all, you need to stop the tap. So if the bath is overflowing, you need to stop the water from coming in.
“The first thing Nigel will do when he becomes the Prime Minister of this country, is to pick up the phone to the First Sea Lord and issue an order to His Majesty’s Royal Navy to ensure that not a single unauthorised vessel crossing the English Channel makes it to the shores of the United Kingdom.
“It will be a humanitarian mission. I speak to many people at the most senior levels inside of His Majesty’s Navy who say all they need is political clarity. They keep using that word. Give us political clarity. We will ensure those boats stop coming, nobody’s harmed, they are taken back to France.”
Is this doable?
The Navy would face considerable legal and ethical challenges if it deployed forces to take boats back to France.
International maritime laws, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, stipulate that countries must assist any person in distress at sea, which complicates any policy of turning back migrant boats.
There would also be concerns about the humanitarian aspects, where such actions could lead to loss of life or further endanger migrants.
Furthermore, it would require buy-in from the French, who have raised legal and humanitarian concerns about any strategy involving turning back boats and pushed back against unilateral efforts by the UK to control immigration.
However, Reform’s proposal has considerable backing in Britain, polling suggests.
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A whopping 99 per cent were in favour of the policy, while just one per cent disagreed
Getty Images
At the end of last year, GB News Members were asked whether they think Britain should turn boats back to France.
A whopping 99 per cent were in favour of the policy, while just one per cent disagreed.
Proponents point to the continent as evidence that turning back the boats brings down the numbers.
The Italian government recently struck a £90million deal with Tunisia, allowing their border force and coastguard vessels to turn boats around and return them to the Tunisian coast.
This has reduced Mediterranean crossings by more than 60 per cent since taking effect.
GB News has approached the MoD for comment.
Politics
Robert Jenrick’s ‘cynical’ call for Attorney General Lord Hermer ‘conflict of interest’ investigation REJECTED
Solicitor General Lucy Rigby has confirmed Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick’s call for an investigation into Attorney General Lord Richard Hermer has been rejected.
Jenrick had penned a letter to Cabinet Secretary Sir Chris Wormald over the weekend demanding answers to the Attorney General’s work with previous clients.
In the letter, seen by GB News, the Shadow Justice Secretary, Lord Hermer’s listed clients included Sri Lankan asylum seekers in the Chagos Islands, ex-Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams, Afghan families associated with the ongoing Afghan inquiry and parties interested in Shamima Begum’s citizenship case.
Dismissing Jenrick’s calls for a probe, Rigby told MPs: “I have outlined the rigorous process that exists in the Attorney General’s Office and has existed across administrations of all colours.
Attorney General Lord Richard HermerPA“The House may be aware that the shadow justice secretary [Robert Jenrick] has written to the Cabinet Secretary [Sir Chris Wormald] seeking clarity… on that process and an investigation into it, the Cabinet Secretary has today confirmed by reply that the Attorney General’s Office has a rigorous system in place to ensure that a law officer would not be consulted on any matter that could give rise to a potential conflict of interest.
“He has restated that these arrangements are long standing and part of a standard practice that has applied in successive administrations.”
Rigby also accused the Tories of being “cynical” by linking the Attorney General to his previous clients, including ex-Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams.
However, Tory MP Ben Obese-Jecty questioned if Lord Hermer’s role as Attorney General remained tenable.
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Robert Jenrick
PA
He said: “The current Attorney General has a track record of taking up multiple cases against the British government. Given his previous work both with regard to Gerry Adams and the families of those making claims against UK special forces, on which matters will the Attorney General recuse himself from advising ministers owing to clear conflicts of interests?
“And if he is not able to fulfil the full scope of his role owing to his prior career, is his position even tenable?”
Rigby replied: “I am afraid I couldn’t be more clear. I have already said that where the Attorney General has conflicts he will recuse himself.”
Today’s row came after the Tories secured an urgent question in the House of Commons.
Attorney General Richard Hermer and Leader of the House of Lords Baroness Smith leave 10 Downing StreetPALord Hermer came under fire last week after it was revealed that Labour’s will repeal a law that blocked Adams from claiming compensation for his detention.
The Attorney General represented Mr Adams in a separate case where the former Sinn Fein president was being sued by the victims of three IRA bomb attacks.
However, Hermer insisted his work with Adams was unconnected to the legislation.
Rigby said: “It is a central and well understood aspect of the British legal system… that barristers are required to accept instructions if they are available and qualified to do so.”
She added: “She will also be very aware that put simply barristers are not their clients.
“As the Bar Council states, barristers do not choose their clients, nor do they associate themselves with their clients’ opinions or behaviour by virtue of representing them.”
Politics
Reform UK: Chairman Zia Yusuf REJECTS Suella Braverman’s offer of a Tory-Reform pact: ‘Betrayed British people!’
Reform UK chairman Zia Yusuf has expressed disappointment at Suella Braverman’s suggestion for an electoral pact between the populist party and the Conservatives.
Speaking on GB News, Yusuf firmly rejected any possibility of a deal with the Tories, questioning how Reform could work with a group that “deal entirely in deception, in falsehoods, and betrayal”.
Yusuf’s comments came after the former Home Secretary called for unity on the right during a visit to Washington DC for Donald Trump’s inauguration.
Speaking on GB News, Yusuf said: “I agree with her that there isn’t space for two, and the reality is Reform has already overtaken the Conservative Party.
Zia Yousef said that Reform will never have a pact with the Tories
GB News
“Look, how can you do a deal? How can you do a pact with a group, with a tribe who deal entirely in deception, in falsehoods, and betrayal?
“They have betrayed the people of Britain to such an extraordinary degree that they will fully deserve the extinction event that’s now facing them.
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“The pollsters have a great deal of discretion to flex things up and down and none of the pollsters want to go first, because pollsters largely have no interest in being correct. They just want to not be demonstrably wrong. You’ll see in the coming weeks, Reform surging ahead of the Tory party, as we already have done in several polls.
“But look, just look at the Tories’ track record here. Over the 14 years that they were in government, they grew the size of the population of the United Kingdom by six and a half million people.
Suella Braverman suggested a pact between the parties
PA
“They built no new net prison places, which is why we have violent criminals running rampant around the United Kingdom and people feel terrified to leave their homes, particularly women. The 2010, the 2015, the 2017, and the 2019 manifesto, they promised to bring that migration down to the tens of thousands. What did they do? They left office with that number at one million.”
He added: “We will never do a deal with the Tory party, because they will never again get a chance to betray the British.”
Braverman made her comments while attending Trump’s inauguration in Washington DC, where she praised the former President’s style of “unfiltered conservatism”.”
“Donald Trump has not just shifted Overton window, he’s shattered it,” Braverman told The Telegraph.
Zia Yousef said the Tories have “betrayed the British people”
GB News
“He’s made the unsayable mainstream and he’s made the radical much more acceptable to the moderates.”
Braverman added she was open to various forms of cooperation, including “a merger, a coalition, a supply and confidence agreement, or a non-aggression pact”.
The former Home Secretary also aligned herself with Reform UK’s position on leaving the European Convention on Human Rights.
Robert Jenrick has highlighted a severe crisis in England’s court system in his latest episode of Common Sense.
He explained that nearly half of all courtrooms at London’s Central Criminal Court are currently empty in a shocking revelation.
Speaking outside the Old Bailey, Jenrick pointed to 11 vacant courtrooms in the building, describing it as “the beating heart of our legal system”.
The situation is even more dire in Carlisle, where 67 per cent of courtrooms stand empty, while Bristol sees 40 per cent of its courtrooms unused on average each week.
The court system is facing a mounting crisis with a backlog of 73,000 cases, which is increasing by 500 cases every month.
In episode two, Jenrick speaks to James from the Criminal Bar Association, and highlights “the right to a fair trial in a reasonable time frame”.
Watch the second episode of ‘Common Sense with Robert Jenrick’ above
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Labour LOSING London to Tories and Reform as report shows 585,000 illegal migrants in capital
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