Reform UK is projected to win two safe seats in London at the next General Election, marking a seismic moment for the party.
Victories are coming thick and fast for the insurgent party, with disaffected Conservatives joining the ranks and gains predicted up and down the country.
Reform has managed to tap into the deep well of resentment that the electorate feels towards the two main parties, with impressive turnouts expected in the county council elections in May and the parliamentary elections in Scotland and Wales the following year.
However, predicted gains in London are an unexpected win for the party this far out from the next General Election.
A poll-aggregating model (see above) predicts Hornchurch and Upminster – a constituency in Greater London – will turn light blue for the first time.
Reform is expected to gain a majority over the Conservatives, which has held the seat for decades.
The Nowcast model predicts the race will come down to the wire, with Nigel Farage’s party gaining a slender majority of 1.8 per cent.
A bigger win is expected in Dagenham and Rainham. The Greater London constituency has been held by Labour since its creation in 2010.
Reform is expected to win a majority of 3.1 per cent in the safe Labour seat, with Conservatives coming in second.
Party insiders are quietly rejoicing at this forecast, with one telling GB News that it presents a “huge opportunity to realign centre-right in Britain”, noting that the public “voted Labour out of frustration with a useless Conservative party” and the cracks are showing.
While the outcome is a cause for celebration, the insider acknowledges that there’s work to be done to make the party a viable party of government.
The chief concern is vetting the new intake of candidates.
Reform is expected to win a majority of 3.1 per cent in the safe London Labour seat
Twitter/Nigel Farage
This is something Tory veteran Tim Montgomerie is mindful of now he has defected to Reform, going so far as to say this is “the beginning of their problem”.
He told GB News: “They [Reform] have had a problem in the past with certain dodgy candidates getting through. So the party must vet candidates so that they don’t have one good May [election] with lots of candidates being elected only to find out those same candidates cause trouble over the following months.”
Montgomerie added: “Vetting those candidates will be at least as important as getting them elected.”
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