Reform UK would become the biggest party in Wales if there was an election held tomorrow, shock polling has found.
Farage’s party would scoop 24 per cent of the national vote, landing them 31 seats in the soon-to-be expanded Welsh parliament, the next elections for which are due in 16 months.
It would mean for the first time since Wales’ devolved government was founded in the late 90’s that Labour would not be the largest party.
The socialist party has ruled Wales for quarter of a century, but during that time NHS waiting lists have ballooned and educational outcomes have become the worst of the UK’s nations.
The research suggests voters are beginning to abandon Labour whose vote share projection of 27 per cent would only be enough to match Reform’s 31 seats.
But there’s a huge twist for Welsh Reform voters come May 2026, they won’t know the leader of their party before voting.
Farage’s party has said they will elect a leader after the elections, meaning the new First Minister could come as a surprise to the electorate.
Welsh political commentator Will Hayward branded the decision ‘incredibly disrespectful to Wales.’
First Minister of Wales, Eluned Morgan
PA
Hayward said: “They are telling the people of Wales: ‘Vote for us, but if you do, you’ll only find out who your First Minister will be after we win’.
“Imagine going into a General Election not knowing who the Prime Minister would be if you voted for a party.”
Elsewhere in the new polling, the Conservative brand remains unattractive with Darren Millar’s party polling 18 per cent of the vote, enough for 17 seats.
Plaid Cymru polled 16 seats, the Liberal Democrats one and the Greens none.
It come after a UK-wide poll by Find Out Now pollsters put Labour third with just 23 per cent of the vote at the end of last year.
The Conservatives topped the poll on 26 per cent with Reform a close second on 24 per cent.
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The sophisticated poll aggregating service ElectionMapsUK extrapolated the polling to make an electoral map of Britain.
It projected Reform to win 12 seats in Wales, one more than Labour on 11 and ahead of the Tories on seven and Plaid Cymru on three.
If this played out in a general election, it would be the first time in 114 years that Labour would not return the majority of MPs from Wales.
For 28 consecutive elections the Welsh electorate has overwhelmingly backed Labour, consistently voting for anyone with a red rosette.
But as the poll suggests, Reform has been able to make more inroads than the Conservatives have done in a century of effort.
Reform has been approached for comment.
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