Latest opinion polling in Scotland has shown Labour’s support collapsing with voters leaving for Reform UK and the SNP in droves.
Norstat UK Political Polling put Labour at 20 per cent in Scotland, down three percentage points while the SNP and Reform were both up one percentage point to 31 and 15 per cent respectively.
Crucially, when this polling is translated into a Westminster seat projection, it shows Labour losing a whopping 25 seats.
Starmer’s party won 37 of 57 available seats in July 2024. A loss of 25 seats would mean losing 67 per cent of its representation in Scotland, nothing short of an absolute wipeout.
Almost all would be won back by the SNP. The nationalist party was mauled by Labour in July, losing 39 seats.
Despite falling a percentage point to 14 (one behind Reform), the Conservatives would gain one seat.
Farage’s party meanwhile would not gain a single seat according to the model as their 15 per cent is spread across Scotland.
In Westminster’s First Past The Post voting system support needs to be concentrated in seats to stand a chance of winning a ‘winner takes all’ contest.
Scotland seat projection extrapolated from recent polling by Norstat UK Political Polling
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For example, the Liberal Democrats polled just six per cent Scotland-wide but would still retain six seats.
So despite being projected to win less than half the votes of Reform, Ed Davey’s party would still have six more seats as its support is focused enough to win singular seats.
The terrible projection for Labour demonstrates how unpopular Keirn Starmer’s leadership is from London.
Scotland’s pensioners will be turning away from Labour in particular after the party slashed the winter fuel payment and refused to compensate WASPI women.
The polling is broadly in line with council by-elections since the July General Election, albeit without the presence of the SNP.
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Despite winning a thumping majority just five months ago, Labour has suffered a net loss of 27 council seats since July with their aggregate vote share crashing 8.7 per cent.
In what is an extraordinary turnaround for a party who just suffered their worst electoral result in history, the Conservatives have recorded a net gain of 24 seats.
For most of this period the Conservatives did not even have a leader, something commentators have said shows the level of discontent with Starmer’s leadership.
Reform has also drained support away from Labour, gaining seven seats and recording the largest aggregate vote share bump of 7.4 per cent.
The next major batch of elections are due in May 2025 with 21 county councils, nine unitary councils, one metropolitan borough council and Isle of Scilly and City of London councils up for grabs.
Elections for the Scottish Parliament are due in May 2026. These elections use a proportional representation voting system meaning Reform’s vote share is likely to be rewarded with representation.
Polling guru John Curtice has said the party could win a blocking minority in Holyrood and warned all parties need take them seriously.
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