Reform UK has flipped a Labour seat ahead of next May’s election as a bombshell new poll finds one in five voters who backed the Conservative Party in the General Election have switched to Nigel Farage’s party.
At just 18 years of age, Kieran Mishchuk pipped Labour candidate Nicola Nelson to the post, winning the Milton Regis by-election with 272 votes.
The election saw a massive swing from Labour, which lost 33 per cent of its previous vote share, ending with 24.9 per cent.
It follows a series of triumphs for Reform ahead of next May’s county council elections.
A new poll conducted by Techne UK has found Conservative voters are switching to Reform in their droves
GETTY
In November 2024, the party secured a Wolverhampton council seat in the Bilston North by-election, unseating Labour.
Additionally, Reform came within ten votes of winning a seat on Sheffield City Council in the Woodhouse by-election, a previously safe Labour seat that was ultimately taken by the Liberal Democrats.
Although Reform’s most recent by-election result had a low turnout (17 per cent), by-elections are a bellwether of voter sentiment, so Labour will be worried.
Reacting to the win on X, one user wrote: ‘Wow’, while another said: “Excellent result. @UKLabour the public are telling you they have had enough.”
The Conservatives also have reasons to be nervous.
A new poll conducted by Techne UK has found Conservative voters are switching to Reform in their droves.
The poll found that 22 per cent of voters who supported the Conservatives in July’s general election have switched allegiance to Reform UK.
The poll highlighted that among pensioners, Reform UK was now ahead of Labour, with 25 per cent support compared to Labour’s 21 per cent.
Conversely, Labour was leading significantly among younger voters under 45. Additionally, Reform UK was found to be ahead among 2016 Leave voters with 38 per cent support, compared to the Conservatives’ 36 per cent.
Reform has had a series of triumphs ahead of next May’s county council elections
REFORM UK/PA
Warning, danger ahead
The biggest challenge Reform will face in the next few years is appealing to the broader electorate, insiders say.
Getting the best people for the job will be key as it grows in size and influence.
Tory veteran Tim Montgomerie is mindful of this now he has defected to Reform.
He told GB News: “They [Reform] have had a problem in the past with certain dodgy candidates getting through. So the party must vet candidates so that they don’t have one good May [election] with lots of candidates being elected only to find out those same candidates cause trouble over the following months.”
Montgomerie added: “Vetting those candidates will be at least as important as getting them elected.”
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