‘Too early to say’ whether fall of Assad will improve situation in Syria, says minister

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inbox

Get our free View from Westminster email

Get our free View from Westminster email

It is “too early to say” whether the overthrow of the Assad regime will improve the situation in Syria, a home office minister has said, following the suspension of all decisions on asylum claims from the Middle Eastern nation.

Dame Angela Eagle said it was impossible to say how long decisions will be paused for, as the government cannot predict what the country will look like under its new regime.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which overthrew Bashar al-Assad’s regime at the weekend, is banned in the UK because of its past association with al-Qaida, the terrorist organisation once led by Osama bin Laden.

But its leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani cut ties with al-Qaida years ago and has sought to present his group as a more moderate and inclusive organisation.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Dame Angela said: “At the moment, we hope that the fall of this brutal regime will lead to a better outcome in Syria, but it’s too early to say.

“But what is certain is that we can’t judge somebody’s asylum claim when the country that they’re fleeing from is in such turmoil and the regime that they’ve fled from has disappeared. It’s important that we just stop and let events play out a bit.”

It comes after the government on Monday announced it has suspended all decisions for those who have fled Syria following the fall of the Assad regime.

Millions of Syrians left the country after the outbreak of civil war and the Assad regime’s brutal crackdown on opponents.

Syrians generated the fifth largest number of asylum claims in the year ending September 2024, Home Office statistics showed – behind Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran and Bangladesh. Some 99 per cent of claims were granted at initial decision.

The border security and asylum minister said the decision was taken because “all of those claiming asylum in the last few years have been fleeing the Assad regime and that’s been their reason for claiming asylum.

“That regime has now collapsed, and therefore there’s a very fluid situation happening in Syria.”

Asked how long decisions will be suspended for, Dame Angela said: “When regimes collapse, there is often a vacuum. It can take a while to settle and a new approach be taken, so it’s impossible to say at the moment.”

The decision to suspend asylum claims came after similar actions were taken by other countries, including Germany, Austria and Sweden, after 13 years of civil war saw a coalition of rebel groups seize Damascus on Sunday.

A Home Office spokesperson said: “The Home Office has paused decisions on Syrian asylum claims whilst we assess the current situation. We keep all country guidance relating to asylum claims under constant review so we can respond to emerging issues.”

On Monday, a Downing Street spokesperson said the government is looking at whether to keep HTS on the list of proscribed organisations.

The official said the situation is “under regular review”, but confirmed that the government cannot engage with them until they are no longer a proscribed group.

“When it comes to HTS, they have been proscribed in the UK, having been added as an alias of al Qaida in 2017. The government doesn’t routinely comment in more detail on the list of proscribed organisations, but as you know we keep our regime under regular review”, the spokesperson said.