The Budget will embrace the “harsh light of fiscal reality” but “better days are ahead”, Sir Keir Starmer will say in a speech ahead of Wednesday’s announcement.

The prime minister is expected to warn of “unprecedented” economic challenges but will say the government will “run towards them” as Labour prepares for its first Budget in almost 15 years.

The government is expected to announce a series of expected tax hikes, including a rise in the National Insurance (NICs) rate paid by employers which some claim breaks Labour’s manifesto pledge not to increase taxes for “working people”.

The Conservatives have accused Sir Keir of running a government of “broken promises”.

At a speech in the West Midlands on Monday, Sir Keir will argue that the country faces an “unprecedented” challenge of weak public finances alongside “crumbling public services”.

He will promise to face what he calls “the tough decisions”.

Speculation has been growing about the tax rises the chancellor will announce on Wednesday, with Rachel Reeves claiming there is a £22bn “hole” in the public finances left by the previous government.

Last week, Reeves signalled that businesses would face an increase in National Insurance, when she said Labour’s election pledge not to increase contributions on “working people” related to the staff element, as opposed to the sum paid by employers.

Other than National Insurance for employers, the freezing of income tax thresholds could be extended.

This means more people are “dragged” into paying tax or paying a higher rate and wages rise and cross the thresholds.

The government is also looking at increasing tax on asset sales, such as shares and property, as well as changing its own self-imposed rules on how its debts are measured in order to free up money for spending on infrastructure projects.

Footage has emerged of a Labour MP punching a man to the ground and then hitting him several more times.

A video published by the Mail shows Mike Amesbury, the MP for Runcorn and Helsby, hitting the man in the face and knocking him to the floor, before standing over him and aiming six more blows at his head.

The security camera footage also shows Amesbury shouting: “You won’t threaten me again, will you?”

Amesbury said in a statement on Saturday night: “Last night I was involved in an incident that took place after I felt threatened on the street following an evening with friends. This morning I contacted Cheshire police myself to report what happened during this incident.

“I will not be making further comment but will, of course, cooperate with any inquiries if required by Cheshire police.”

After an initial video showing the aftermath of the altercation was published on Saturday night, a Labour spokesperson said: “We are aware of an incident that took place last night. We understand that Mike Amesbury MP approached Cheshire police to report what happened this morning himself and that he will cooperate with any inquiries they have.”

The education secretary, Bridget Phillipson, refused to say on Sunday whether Amesbury would have the whip suspended while police investigated.

“Mike Amesbury is cooperating fully with the police,” she said. “He’s gone forward himself to the police, and it is right that the police now look into this matter, investigate and decide what action, if any, is required.”

Officials did not respond on Sunday after footage emerged of the incident.

Cheshire constabulary said in a statement: “At 2.48am on Saturday 26 October, police were called to reports of an assault in Frodsham. A caller reported he had been assaulted by a man in Main Street. Enquiries are ongoing.”

The footage shows Amesbury talking to the man at 2.15am in the Cheshire town of Frodsham. Shortly after the man looks away, Amesbury punches him with enough force to knock him to the ground, before standing over him and hitting him repeatedly as a third man tries to prise him away.

Amesbury was a shadow minister in the housing department before the election but was not given a government job after the party came to power. He won his seat with a majority of nearly 15,000 ahead of the second-placed party, Reform UK.

Three prominent Labour backbenchers have accused Keir Starmer of an “insulting” and “colonial mindset” over his reluctance to discuss reparations for the transatlantic slave trade.

Ahead of a summit of the Commonwealth heads of government in Samoa last week, the prime minister rejected calls to discuss reparations with Caribbean and African nations, with No 10 insisting it was “not on the agenda”.

Starmer said slavery was “abhorrent” but his stance was “looking forward rather than looking backwards”, adding that he wanted to focus on discussing “current future-facing challenges” at the summit instead of “very long, endless discussions about reparations on the past”.

On Sunday the Labour MP Bell Ribeiro-Addy addressed a cross-party reparations conference in London, saying it was “very insulting [to] tell people of African descent to forget and move forward”.

“Reparations are not about relitigating historic injustices, they are about remedying the deep-rooted inequalities that still shape our world today,” she said. “At a time when there is growing awareness of how racial hierarchies that endure to this day were constituted to justify the enslavement and colonisation of African peoples, state-led action on reparations is sadly lacking.”

Another Labour MP, Clive Lewis, said it was surprising Starmer had thought he could take a “colonial mindset” to the summit and “dictate what could and could not be discussed”.

Diane Abbott, the first Black woman to become an MP, co-chaired the conference in London. She said the Labour party previously had plans to establish a national reparations commission but Starmer “seems to have forgotten that”.

“Reparations isn’t about the past, it is about the here and now,” she said. “The descendants of African slaves and colonised peoples continue to suffer from the consequences generations later.

“Real reparations aren’t just about compensation, they’re a way of tackling colonialism’s damaging legacy of racism and inequality. They are about the total system change and repair needed to heal, empower and restore dignity.”

At the conclusion of the Commonwealth heads of government meeting (Chogm), the leaders resolved that “the time has come” for a conversation on reparatory justice.

A document signed by the 56 leaders, including Starmer, stated it was time for a “meaningful, truthful and respectful conversation” about justice for the transatlantic trade in enslaved Africans and chattel enslavement, with the aim of forging “a common future based on equity”.

Ribeiro-Addy, who chairs the all-party parliamentary group for Afrikan Representation, said: “I’m very proud those nations refused to be silenced.”

In a press conference after the summit, Starmer downplayed the significance of the paragraph in the document that called for a conversation about reparatory justice, telling reporters it was a small part of “quite a long communique”.

“None of the discussions have been about money. Our position is very, very clear in relation to that,” he said. He added that the issue would be revisited when a delegation of Caribbean nations visits the UK next year.

Last week, amid mounting pressure, a source in No 10 told the Guardian that the UK could support some forms of reparatory justice, such as restructuring financial institutions and providing debt relief.

“There is a general sense that these multilateral institutions give out loans to developing countries then charge large interest rates for repayments,” the source said.

CCTV footage has emerged appearing to show Labour MP Mike Amesbury punching a man to the ground.

In footage obtained by the Daily Mail, the Runcorn and Helsby MP is apparently seen continuing to hit the man as he lies in the street.

It comes after a different video, posted on X, purported to show Amesbury shouting and swearing at the man lying in the street in Frodsham, Cheshire.

In that clip, Amesbury can be heard shouting: “You won’t threaten the MP ever again, will you?”

Both Amesbury and the Labour Party have been contacted for their response.

It is not clear what happened in the build-up to the moments caught on film.

In a statement issued before the Daily Mail footage emerged, Cheshire Police said: “At 02:48 BST on Saturday 26 October police were called to reports of an assault in Frodsham.

“A caller reported he had been assaulted by a man in Main Street. Enquiries are ongoing.”

Posting on his own Facebook page on Saturday, the 55-year-old backbencher said: “Last night I was involved in an incident that took place after I felt threatened following an evening out with friends.

“This morning I contacted Cheshire Police myself to report what happened.

“I will not be making any further public comment but will of course cooperate with any inquiries if required by Cheshire Police.”

Amesbury has been a Labour MP in Cheshire since 2017 and served as a shadow minister between 2018 and 2024.

In the July general election he won his constituency with a majority of 14,696.

Israel’s reputation as a democracy would be “deeply harmed” if the Knesset pressed ahead with bills this week that would end all Israeli government cooperation with the Palestinian relief agency Unrwa, the UK’s Middle East minister has said.

Hamish Falconer said such a move at a time when the humanitarian crisis in Gaza was catastrophic and worsening would “neither be in Israel’s interest or realistic”.

His remarks are the strongest criticism yet by a western government minister of the legislation, which could be voted on as early as this week unless the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, intervenes.

He was speaking as a joint statement was released from seven European foreign ministries, including the UK’s, urging Israel to drop the proposed bill, saying: “It is crucial that Unrwa and other UN organisations be fully able to deliver humanitarian aid and their assistance to those who need it most, fulfilling their mandates effectively.”

Falconer demanded that more aid be allowed to enter Gaza and said too many civilians were being killed in Israeli attacks on Hamas in Gaza. He was speaking at a conference in London convened by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz.

Falconer said the measures taken by the Labour government so far did not indicate any decline in Labour support for the state of Israel, but his remarks were as sharp as any delivered by a Labour minister.

He said: “We are deeply concerned by legislation currently under consideration by the Israeli Knesset which would critically undermine Unrwa. It is neither in Israel’s interest nor realistic.

“Given the agency’s vital role in delivering aid and essential services at a time when more aid should be getting into Gaza, it is deeply harmful to Israel’s international reputation as a democratic country that its lawmakers are taking steps that would make the delivering of food, water, medicines and healthcare more difficult.”

He added: “The international community are clear that Unrwa and other humanitarian organisations must be fully able to deliver aid.”

Many Israelis regard Unrwa as too closely linked with Hamas and also committed to the Palestinian refugees’ right of return.

Falconer, who has recently been to the Egypt-Gaza border, said humanitarian access to Gaza remained wholly inadequate. “I saw for myself thousands of trucks waiting to cross the border,” he said. “Some had been there for months. There were warehouses full of life-saving items – medical equipment, sleeping bags and tarpaulin for the winter. There have been repeated attacks on humanitarian convoys and the level of aid getting in is far too low.”

He challenged Israel’s military tactics inside Gaza, saying: “Hamas is a brutal terrorist organisation, it hides behind Gazan civilians, but all parties must do everything possible to protect civilians and fully respect international humanitarian law.”

He said Israel “must protect civilians even if it means making difficult choices. All too often in the pursuit of Hamas we have seen civilians pay the price. The Israeli government must take all necessary precautions to avoid civilian casualties, to ensure aid can flow into Gaza and freely through all humanitarian land routes.”

Falconer also said: “As long as there is little accountability for settler violence, the government will consider further actions.”

Warning that the risk of further escalation could not be exaggerated, he called for calmer heads to prevail and urged Iran not to retaliate for Saturday’s Israeli attack. The death of the Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar presented an opportunity for a new chapter, he said, and no military solution existed to the crisis.

Speaking at the same event via video link, the former UK prime minister Tony Blair said: “Hamas cannot be allowed to continue to govern Gaza, and Israel will need to pull back to allow the development of a different governance structure for Gaza that would then enable reconstruction to take place.”

Blair said he knew that many in Israel doubted Gaza could ever be run differently, and many assumed a “higher level of support for Hamas than exists in reality”.

He said polls commissioned in August by the Tony Blair Institute showed that the most popular choice was an administration of Gaza representatives with international oversight and linked to the Palestinian Authority. He said the poll showed that in the West Bank there was strong agreement behind moderate to deep reform of the Palestinian Authority.