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From Thatcher to Trump and Brexit: my seven lessons learned after 28 years as Guardian economics editor | Larry Elliott Economics editor

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Margaret Thatcher was prime minister and Nigel Lawson her chancellor of the exchequer. Neil Kinnock was leader of the Labour party. The iron curtain separated Europe.

Across the Atlantic, Ronald Reagan’s second term in the White House was drawing to a close. Donald Trump floated the idea that George Bush might want him as his running mate in the looming US presidential election, an overture Bush described as “strange and unbelievable”.

This was the political backdrop when I joined the Guardian in 1988 – the year before Tim Berners-Lee invented the world wide web, when mobile phones were in their infancy and the climate crisis was just starting to become a hot political issue.

It was a time when free market ideas ruled. A combination of high inflation and recession – stagflation – in the 1970s had led to a crisis of postwar social democracy and given rise to a new set of beliefs: privatisation, deregulation, tax cuts paid for by shrinking the state, curbs on the power of trade unions, the dismantling of capital controls. All this would give capitalism its mojo back, leading to wealth creation that would trickle down from those at the top to those struggling at the bottom.

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Since this is my last column after more than 28 years as the Guardian’s economics editor, I thought I would devote it to some lessons learned during my time on the paper.

Lesson No 1 is that the free-market experiment has failed, as some of us said it would all along. Wealth did not trickle down, and instead the gap between the haves and the have-nots widened. The workers laid off when the factories closed in northern England and the US midwest did not find new well-paid jobs but were either thrown on the scrapheap or found low-paid insecure work in call centres and distribution warehouses.

Financial speculation ran rife once controls on capital were removed, but growth rates in the west were slower than in the postwar heyday of social democracy. Warnings of trouble ahead were ignored until the world’s banking system came close to collapse in the global financial crisis of 2008. At which point, policymakers abruptly ditched free-market values and rediscovered the virtues of state ownership, interventionist industrial strategies and demand management.

But only temporarily. Lesson No 2 is that ideas matter. The near death of the banks provided an opportunity to forge a new progressive approach to the economy in the shape of a Green New Deal, but it was not taken. In part, that was because various parts of the left – the Keynesians, the greens, the Marxists – all had differing views on what needed to be done. In part it was because the rich and powerful used their money and influence to stymie any hope of real change. In part, it was because of the timidity of parties of the left.

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The upshot is that there has been no equivalent of the Thatcher-Reagan revolution of the 1980s, even though the crisis of neoliberalism in 2008 was just as profound as the collapse of social democracy in the 1970s. A form of zombie capitalism has staggered on for a decade and a half, kept alive by cheap money liberally provided by central banks. Ultra-low interest rates have failed to boost investment. Real wage growth has been nugatory.

Those at the sharp end of economic failure looked to parties of the left for answers to their concerns: low pay, job insecurity, run-down public services, a fear of crime, the consequences of mass immigration. What they got instead were lectures about the need to eat better, smoke and drink less, and to stop being such bigots.

Trump’s victory last week shows what happens when the left first abandons its natural supporters and then tells them what to think and behave. That’s lesson No 3: populism will continue to flourish until the left comes up with a credible and deliverable economic plan.

Trump won because he promised to give voters what they wanted rather than what America’s liberal elite thought they ought to want.

Trump’s impending return to the White House highlights a fourth lesson from the past 36 years: the world’s economic centre of gravity – symbolised by the emergence of China and India as forces to be reckoned with – has moved from west to east and from north to south. To be sure, China has some deep structural problems, but it has lifted 800 million people out of poverty since the late 1970s, has developed expertise in hi-tech manufacturing, and poses a bigger threat to US hegemony than the Soviet Union ever did.

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Lesson No 5 is that globalisation has gone into reverse. The new cold war between China and the US, the vulnerability of global supply chains exposed by the Covid pandemic, and voter demands that their political leaders reassert control over the economy are all leading to a revival of the nation state. Free trade is out; protectionism is in. Governments are responding to pressure to curb migration. Activist industrial strategies are back in vogue.

The European Union is finding adjustment to these new challenges difficult. That’s hardly surprising, given that the EU was – as Wolfgang Streeck notes in his book Taking Back Control? – the “perfect realisation” of post-communist neoliberal economic globalism: centralised, depoliticised, bureaucratic and wedded to free movement of people, goods, services and capital.

As the Guardian’s resident Eurosceptic, I have to say I have never seen anything especially attractive in the EU’s economic model. Nor can the project of ever-closer union remotely be called a success. The EU is sclerotic and seething with voter rage at the inability of its governments to raise living standards or control immigration.

So my sixth lesson is that those who say Brexit has failed are not just jumping the gun but need to look across the English Channel, because that’s where the real failure lies. Brexit was to Britain what Trump’s victory was for the US: a revolt against the elites and a demand for change. It offers the chance for a party of the left to do things differently. Labour can seize that opportunity.

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That’s not a conclusion, I am well aware, that most of my readers would agree with, but one of the joys of working for the Guardian is that it encourages – indeed welcomes – challenges to the orthodoxy.

So my final lesson from the past 36 years is this: it is always worth questioning the status quo. Just because something is the received wisdom doesn’t mean it is right.

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Council tax bills could rise by 5% after Labour keeps cap in place | Tax and spending

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Keir Starmer dodges question during PMQs about whether he is keeping cap on council tax – video

Labour has confirmed council tax rises will be kept at the 5% cap next year, which could mean a rise of £100 for the average family’s bills.

The prime minister’s press secretary said on Wednesday that the threshold by which local authorities can increase bills would “remain the same”. Hours earlier Keir Starmer had dodged a question from Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, at prime minister’s questions about whether he would keep the cap on council tax.

Speaking in the Commons, he said MPs “will know what the arrangements are”. Later on Wednesday, his press secretary said: “The threshold remains the same.”

In the Commons, Badenoch replied: “I think the house would have heard that the prime minister could neither confirm nor deny whether the cap on council tax was being raised.”

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A 5% rise would be almost three times above current levels of inflation, which in October fell to 1.7% – the first time it had been below 2% since 2021.

Keir Starmer dodges question during PMQs about whether he is keeping cap on council tax – video

Government statistics show the average band D council tax set by local authorities in England for 2024-25 was £2,171, which represented an increase of £106 or 5.1% on the previous year. For those in the most expensive band H households, last year’s £4,342 bill will increase by £217.

Starmer accused the Tories of leaving local authorities in an “absolutely catastrophic state” after Badenoch pressed the prime minister about the government’s funding plans for cash-strapped councils in England.

The Conservatives cited responses to written parliamentary questions in which ministers said estimated core spending power (CSP) for local government will increase from £64.7bn in 2024-25 to £68.4 bn in 2025-26, with the party adding that the budget was not providing enough new funding to cover this.

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Ministers have said the CSP is subject to data changes and final figures will be published as part of the 2025-26 local government finance settlement.

Increases have been capped at 2.99% in recent years, while an extra 2% increase is permitted for councils with social care responsibilities. Councils are able to put up tax rates by up to 5% but would require government permission or a referendum for any bigger increases.

With one in four councils saying in a Local Government Association survey that they were “likely” to need emergency support to stave off bankruptcy in the next two years, increases in council taxes seem likely.

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More than half of general election candidates faced abuse

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More than half of general election candidates faced abuse

More than half of the candidates standing in this year’s general election faced abuse, according to a report by the Electoral Commission.

The watchdog said a third of election candidates reported they were intimidated or made to feel unsafe at least once, and more than one in 10 (13%) reported serious threats, abuse or intimidation.

Safeguards were tightened following the murders of MPs Jo Cox in 2016 and Sir David Amess in 2021 and anyone convicted of intimidation offences relating to elections can be banned from holding elected office for five years.

Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle has said some of the incidents seen during the July campaign were “clearly unacceptable”.

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There were reports of abuse from candidates including slashing tyres, throwing milkshakes and targeting candidates’ families.

The 2024 general election was the first where all 4,515 candidates were offered basic security and had access to a named police officer during the campaign and guidance on respectful campaigning was updated.

Despite this, a survey responded to by 717 candidates found nearly half (46%) reported harassment, intimidation or threats in person as they knocked on doors asking people to vote for them, and a quarter (23%) at a campaign event.

And there is also a growing issue with online abuse, reported by two-thirds of candidates who responded, and the watchdog is also calling for improved online protections.

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The Electoral Commission is calling for tougher penalties for criminal acts, tighter political party membership rules, including potential deselection, and a review of whether to bring in secure campaigning zones.

The chief executive of the Electoral Commission, Vijay Rangarajan, said these “crucial improvements” must be put in place ahead of the 2026 Welsh and Scottish elections, and the next UK general election.

He said: “The level of harassment and intimidation faced by candidates is particularly concerning, and requires urgent and coordinated action.

“Those standing for public office should not be subjected to abuse.

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“It is deterring some people from standing to be candidates, and inhibiting how some engage with voters – both of which risk weakening our robust democratic debate.”

In particular, Mr Rangarajan said he was concerned at unacceptable levels of intimidation and harassment directed at women and candidates from ethnic minority backgrounds.

Women were twice as likely to report serious abuse as men, with one in five (20%) women compared to one in 10 (11%) men.

Ethnic minorities were more than three times likely to report serious abuse as white people, with 34% reporting this compared to 11% of white people.

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Abuse and intimidation can have a significant impact on candidates’ campaign activity, the report added, with 66% of female respondents saying they avoided campaigning alone due to a fear of abuse.

The commission also spoke to four women who had campaigned to become an MP during the general election about their experience, and also took written evidence from MPs and political parties.

They reported a clear feeling they were targeted because of their gender and they were also were more likely than male candidates to report being touched, hugged, or kissed against their will.

One English woman aged 45-54 years old, reported how “full-on” and “really abusive males” would swear at her, which made her stop knocking on doors to speak to people face-to-face.

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Instead, she said she would only post leaflets and her husband did most of the door-knocking because “as a male he had a better rapport”.

She added: “I still think that it’s incredibly sad because they obviously don’t respond to a female wanting to put themselves forward.”

Another English woman in the same age bracket reported being touched against her will and threats of harm, amongst other abuse, and said she thought “women bear the brunt of this because we’re perceived as an easier target to convince not to [run]”.

There was also a perception that there was “no point” reporting abuse to the police, and only one in five (21%) of the cases of abuse logged with the watchdog were reported to the police.

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The Electoral Commission report focused on July’s general election for the section related to abuse of candidates, but the wider report on findings on voting and online systems also took in findings from the May 2024 Police and Crime Commissioner elections in England and Wales, as well as local and mayoral elections in England.

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P&O Ferries spent £47m on mass layoffs amid financial woes, accounts show | P&O Ferries

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P&O Ferries spent more than £47m on sacking hundreds of UK seafarers in 2022, according to its long overdue accounts that will be published in the coming days.

The filings, which the Guardian has seen, confirm the financial cost of the company’s actions two and a half years ago when it outraged the public and parliament by dismissing 786 mainly British ferry workers – and then largely replacing them with low-cost agency staff from countries including India, the Philippines and Malaysia.

The scandal re-emerged last month when the prime minister, Keir Starmer, rebuked his transport secretary, Louise Haigh, after she referred to the ferry operator as a “rogue operator”. DP World, P&O’s Dubai-based owner, had reportedly threatened to pull out of a £1bn investment in the UK on the back of the comments.

P&O had always argued it had been forced into the sackings in order to save the company. The long-awaited accounts, which are almost 11 months late, illustrate the dire financial condition of the business.

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The document outlines how P&O has been “in breach of covenants with respect to its external debt”, and was forced to increase its overdraft facility with its parent company DP World to £365m, up from £295m. The company also sold off one of its vessels in order to raise a further £77m in financing.

A spokesperson for P&O Ferries said: “Our 2022 financial accounts show the challenges faced by the business at that time and why the business needed to transform into a competitive operator with a sustainable long-term future.

“P&O Ferries has taken steps to adjust to new market conditions, matching our capacity to demand and adopting a more flexible operating model that enables us to better serve our customers.”

However, the accounts make a nod to the damage to the brand with travellers after the 2022 layoffs, when the company’s lack of consultation before the sackings led to the ferry operator being accused of breaking employment law.

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A Guardian and ITV News investigation revealed in March this year that the new staff were earning as little as £4.87 an hour, when the company had previously suggested the lowest pay rate was £5.15 an hour after the sackings. P&O later admitted to parliament that the Guardian and ITV’s figure was correct.

The ferry operator had used a loophole, exempting seafarers from minimum wage legislation, in order to pay its staff below the UK and French minimum wage rates. However, that option was closed off in March this year, when the French government implemented a law aimed at preventing the exploitation of cross-Channel workers.

The P&O accounts also said that a civil investigation by a government agency into the company’s conduct during the 2022 sackings was “ongoing”, but remained at the “information gathering stage”, although the company’s directors appear to be confident that no action will be taken.

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The Insolvency Service would need to show that any action it proposed to take was in the public interest and just and equitable,” the accounts said.

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“That threshold is high, and the directors consider that the threshold would not be met in this case.”

Overall, P&O’s pre-tax losses fell to £246m during 2022, down from £375m the previous year. Despite the challenging year, revenues rose by £84m to £919m.

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Legalisation of assisted dying may force NHS cuts, Wes Streeting warns | Politics

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Civil servants are looking at the extra costs which assisted dying would put on the NHS amid a warning from Wes Streeting that some services may be cut to fund expanded end-of-life care.

The health secretary has asked officials at the Department of Health and Social Care to analyse the potential “implications” for NHS services if the right to die is legalised in England and Wales.

Their work is underway amid an increasing focus on how the NHS would cope with helping what the MP spearheading the push for assisted dying believes would be hundreds of people a year who have just six months or less to live to end their life early.

DHSC officials have already begun examining the costs of the practicalities involved, which could involve expanding the services provided by hospitals or district nurses, for example.

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The disclosure comes after Streeting made clear his view that legalisation could force the health service to make difficult decisions about funding some existing services.

“There would be resource implications for doing it. And those choices would come at the expense of other choices”, he told Times Radio earlier on Wednesday.

Asked if he would have to find the money to fund an extension of palliative care from elsewhere in the NHS budget, Streeting replied: “Yep. To govern is to choose. If parliament decides to go ahead with assisted dying, it is making a choice that this is an area to prioritise for investment.

“And we’d have to work through those implications.”

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Later on Wednesday, speaking to the media at the NHS Providers conference in Liverpool, Streeting again highlighted his belief that legalisation could put pressure on the NHS budget.

“I’ve asked my department to look at the cost” of providing more end-of-life care, he said.

“Now that we’ve seen the bill published, I’ve asked my department to look at the costs that would be associated with providing a new service to enable assisted dying to go forward.

“That work is now under way, so I can’t give you a precise figure today. I’ve asked the department to look at the cost of implementing the bill as it is currently laid before parliament.”

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Pressed on what services might lose funding for enhanced palliative care, he declined to specify any. But, he added: “There are choices and trade-offs. Any new service comes at the expense of other competing pressures and priorities.”

Streeting – who plans to vote against assisted dying – also voiced his fear that it might see some people with a terminal diagnosis choosing to end their lives early as a way of saving the NHS money.

“You do touch on the slippery slope argument, which is the potential for cost savings if people choose to opt for assisted dying rather than stay in the care of the care providers or the NHS,” he said in answer to a question.

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“I think that is a chilling slippery slope argument, and I would hate for people to opt for assisted dying because they think they’re saving someone somewhere money, whether that’s relatives or the NHS. I think that’s one of the issues MPs are wrestling with as they decide how to cast their vote.”

MPs weighing up their stance on the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill should not necessarily vote against it because of that potential competition for resources within the NHS, and should consider all the arguments about assisted dying, he added.

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But, referencing the tightness of public finances, he again stressed the potential dilemmas facing the NHS if legalisation happens, saying: “We do need to be in the business of making choices.”

Interviewed on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Streeting said the NHS could ramp up the palliative care system in order for it to take on the responsibilities assisted dying would entail. He has previously stated that palliative care was not “where it needs to be to give people a real choice”.

Streeting plans to vote against Labour MP Kim Leadbeater’s bill when it comes before parliament on 29 November, in what will be the first House of Commons vote on the issue since 2015.

Downing Street would not be drawn into saying whether the health secretary was right to raise the spectre of assisted dying law coming at the expense of other NHS services.

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Asked about Streeting’s remarks, Dave Pares said: “Ultimately, this is a matter for parliament to decide and that is why it is going to be a free vote, and parliament will debate the principles and merits of assisted dying and the issues surrounding the bill.”

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Trump team hostile to Chagos deal, claims Nigel Farage

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Is Reform UK's plan to get Farage into No 10 mission impossible?
Getty Images Nigel FarageGetty Images

The UK’s deal to cede sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius will be met with “outright hostility” by the Trump administration, Nigel Farage has predicted.

The Reform UK leader, a supporter and friend of the incoming US president, told MPs the agreement would put the UK at odds with an important ally.

He added that Donald Trump’s advisers had security concerns, amid claims the deal could boost China’s influence in the region.

But Foreign Office minister Stephen Doughty said he was confident the “full detail” of the arrangement would allay concerns.

It had won backing “across the national security apparatus in the United States”, he added.

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Under the deal, the UK will hand over sovereignty of the islands while retaining control over a joint UK-US military base on the island of Diego Garcia, for an “initial period” of 99 years.

The UK government says the accord, which it hopes to ratify next year, will end legal uncertainty over the islands following international rulings backing Mauritian claims to sovereignty.

But the strategic importance of the archipelago, known officially as the British Indian Ocean Territory, has prompted criticism that the agreement will deliver a security boost to China.

A number of US Republicans have attacked the deal, which has been backed by the outgoing Biden government, although Trump himself has not commented publicly on it.

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‘Vacuum’ warning

Speaking in the Commons, Farage said the UK would find “outright hostility” to the deal among the next US administration, adding it had been an “enormous mistake” to sign up to it before last week’s presidential election.

He said he knew this because of time he had spent in America in the aftermath of the election, and because he knew the incoming defence secretary, Fox News host Pete Hegseth, “very well”.

He added that Michael Waltz, expected to become Trump’s national security adviser, “has form” on the topic, having written a letter to Biden’s secretary of state Antony Blinken in 2022 during talks under the previous Tory government.

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In the letter, published on his website at the time, the Republican congressman warned that China would “take advantage of the resulting vacuum” if the UK handed over sovereignty of the islands.

“Diego Garcia was described to me by a senior Trump adviser as the most important island on the planet, as far as America was concerned,” Farage told MPs.

He said continuing with the deal would put the UK “at conflict with a country without which we would be defenceless”.

‘Not sustainable’

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Doughty dismissed Farage’s criticism, arguing legal uncertainty over the Chagos Islands threatened the “secure and effective operation” of the base on Diego Garcia.

He added that given previous findings against the UK, a legally binding ruling siding with Mauritian sovereignty claims “seemed inevitable” at some point, creating legal uncertainty over the base that was “not sustainable”.

He said the deal contained measures to prevent foreign presence in the “outer islands”, and had also been welcomed by all parts of “the US system”.

He added the UK was looking forward to working with the Trump administration, saying: “I’m sure that they will being briefed on the full detail of this deal.

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“I am confident that the details of this arrangement will allay any concerns.”

Negotiations on a deal began under the previous Conservative government in 2022, but several senior Tories have also spoken out against the deal.

Shadow foreign secretary Dame Priti Patel, who left government two months before negotiations began under Rishi Sunak, said the accord would “give away a key strategic asset” in the Indian Ocean.

Other Tories to have criticised the deal include James Cleverly, who took part in negotiations himself as foreign secretary but has since described Labour’s proposed agreement as “weak”.

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Assisted dying law would hit other NHS services, Wes Streeting warns

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Assisted dying law would hit other NHS services, Wes Streeting warns

Implementing a new assisted dying law would come at the expense of other NHS services, the health secretary has suggested.

Wes Streeting, who once supported assisted dying, plans to vote against the new Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill later this month, arguing the government should focus on improving end-of-life care.

The bill, published on Monday, would allow terminally ill adults expected to die within six months to seek help to end their life if two doctors and a High Court judge verify they are eligible and have made their decision voluntarily.

Streeting told Times Radio on Wednesday the policy would have “resource implications” which would “come at the expense of other choices”.

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Asked whether he would have to find money from elsewhere if the bill became law, Streeting said: “Yep, to govern is to choose.

“If Parliament chooses to go ahead with assisted dying, it is making a choice that this is an area to prioritise for investment. And we’d have to work through those implications.”

Streeting said the health service would “need to work through with the medical profession what would be a very new way of working”.

“No one should be compelled, for example, to take part in assisted dying if they’ve got moral or ethical objections as clinicians. That certainly would be one of my red lines”.

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Streeting has repeatedly expressed his view that the palliative care system is not “where it needs to be to give people a real choice”.

The assisted dying bill has been introduced by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, who argues her legislation is the “most robust” in the world. She has said she expects hundreds of dying people to apply if it is available.

Critics of her measure have raised fears of coercion and a slippery slope to wider legislation taking in more people.

Speaking on Tuesday, Leadbeater rejected these claims, saying her bill had “three layers of scrutiny,” requiring sign-offs from two doctors and a High Court judge, and made coercion punishable by up to 14 years in prison.

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Only terminally-ill adults with less than six months to live who have a settled wish to end their lives would be eligible under the new law.

MPs are scheduled to debate and vote on the bill on 29 November.

The prime minister, a former director of public prosecutions, has previously supported assisted dying, but the government has pledged to remain neutral on the issue, and MPs are being allowed to vote according to their conscience rather than along party lines.

This will be the first Commons vote on assisted dying since MPs rejected allowing terminally ill adults to end their lives under medical supervision in 2015. As a backbench Labour MP, Streeting voted in favour of that measure.

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If the bill passes its first vote later this month, it will receive further scrutiny from MPs and peers, who could choose to amend it.

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