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How To Wake Up Less Tired And Groggy In The Morning

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If you wake up feeling groggy, you might want to switch up your morning routine.

If you’re regularly waking up feeling groggy, tired or even anxious and on edge, you’re far from alone. I’m regularly there with you.

While I often attribute it to just being a parent (I was woken up a grand total of four times last night alone), some days I’ll get a solid seven hours and still wake up feeling fatigued.

And there might be another explanation (or five) as to why I – and many like me – wake up so groggy each day.

According to hormone health expert Mike Kocsis, of Balance My Hormones, the first 60 to 90 minutes after waking are perhaps the most hormonally sensitive of the whole day.

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This period of time is when your body determines how focused, alert and resilient you will be for the next 12 hours, he says.

Understandably, then, small habits and routines in the morning can either balance that process or completely ruin it.

Here are just some of the habits you might want to avoid going forward…

1. Hitting the snooze button repeatedly

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I am a serial snooze-button-pusher – and it turns out, I’m really not doing myself any favours. While it might seem like a fairly harmless habit on the face of it, Kocsis suggests it creates hormonal chaos.

“Each time your alarm goes off, the brain slightly wakes, releases adrenaline and cortisol, then is pushed back into sleep again,” he says. “Over time, this stop-start cycle breaks down the body’s natural cortisol (the stress hormone) awakening response.”

You’re basically giving yourself a series of false starts, which can leave you feeling mentally sluggish, irritable and groggy.

His advice for chronic snoozers is to “set your alarm 10 minutes later and allow one short snooze only”.

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“This prevents repeated adrenaline spikes and helps cortisol rise more naturally,” he explains.

2. Starting the day with a doomscroll

Reaching for your phone as soon as you wake might feel like second nature, but the onslaught of notifications, emails and news headlines you’re met with are all signalling urgency, which your brain processes as a stress cue, triggering cortisol.

This might leave you feeling wired early in the morning, but will subsequently be followed by a crash in motivation, focus and mood later in the afternoon, says Kocsis.

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“Rather than banning your phone completely, delay overstimulating content,” he advises morning scrollers.

“Keep notifications off and avoid any news or emails, however, allow music or a timer. This stops cortisol from peaking too early while still giving routine.”

3. Reaching for caffeine immediately

Coffee in bed might sound delightful, but health and wellness expert Andy Briggs from XO Fitness says your body actually produces its own natural “wake-up” hormone (cortisol) around 30-45 minutes after you wake.

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“Hitting caffeine too early can mess with that process, make coffee less effective, spike stress levels, and even leave you dehydrated,” he explains.

His advice is to start with water instead, as after 6-8 hours without fluids, your body needs rehydrating.

If you do drink coffee or breakfast tea first thing, Kocsis advises making sure you stand or walk whilst doing so, as “gentle, slow movement buffers caffeine’s effects on cortisol and improves insulin sensitivity”, which ideally keeps those pesky jitters at bay.

If you wake up feeling groggy, you might want to switch up your morning routine.

Photo by Laura Chouette on Unsplash

If you wake up feeling groggy, you might want to switch up your morning routine.

4. Skipping breakfast (or waiting too long to eat)

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Again, guilty. After getting two kids out of the door in the morning, and then kickstarting the day’s work and meetings, sometimes I’m not eating breakfast until about 10am.

Kocsis notes this can place the body under unnecessary stress: “When the body doesn’t receive energy in the morning, it instead raises cortisol levels to keep blood sugar balanced.

“This may feel like you’re functioning on adrenaline, you’re technically awake but not calm or stable. Over time, this pattern can cause anxiety, irritability, cravings and a sharp dip in energy mid-morning. You can start to feel shaky, stressed, short-tempered, extremely hungry and mentally foggy all before lunch.”

His advice? Use food to signal safety. Even a small amount of protein and fat first thing sends a strong signal to the brain that resources are there, he says. “This lowers the need for cortisol to increase and helps the adrenaline-fuelled ‘wired but tired’ feeling mid-morning to settle.”

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5. Showering ‘too hot, too fast’

If you love a roasting hot shower to wake you up first thing, it’s worth noting this might not be doing you many favours.

“Very hot water causes blood vessels to constrict rapidly, which can drop blood pressure and set off compensatory cortisol release to keep you upright and alert,” Kocsis says.

You might notice a hot shower leaves you feeling light-headed or drained, which can carry into the morning. “This can be particularly impactful for people who already experience low blood pressure, fatigue or hormone sensitivity,” he continues.

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If you do love a bit of heat to start your morning (and who doesn’t during the winter months?), his advice is to finish your shower with 15-30 seconds of slightly cooler water.

“This stimulates alertness and stimulation without triggering the stress response linked with intense temperature changes, leaving you awakened rather than drained,” he notes.

6. Starting the day in absolute silence

If you wake up in total silence with zero conversation, music or background noise going on, you might actually be helping your brain stay in a half-asleep state.

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“The auditory system helps trigger wakefulness to the brain,” says Kocsis. “With stimulation, dopamine and cortisol can rise more slowly, delaying mental wakefulness.”

Listening to music, a podcast or even regular household noise can help prompt healthier hormone signalling, he offers.

7. Keeping the lights off

Briggs suggests staying in the dark after you’ve woken up confuses your body clock. “Natural light tells your brain it’s time to wake up, improves mood and helps regulate sleep patterns,” he explains.

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“Open the blinds as soon as you can or, if it’s still pitch black outside, things like a sunrise alarm clock can help by gradually lighting the room without the shock of an overhead light.”

Kocsis adds: “A clear light helps cortisol peak early and decline effectively, reducing the 3pm slump and evening restlessness.”

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The vanity of Rupert Lowe

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The vanity of Rupert Lowe

The right of British politics is having its Your Party moment. Rupert Lowe MP, ousted last year from Reform UK following a spectacular falling out with Nigel Farage, has re-launched Restore Britain, turning his erstwhile ‘political movement’ into a fully fledged political party, positing itself as the purer, ‘patriotic’ alternative to the supposed sell-outs and subversives around Farage.

Restore Britain is what happens when you confuse online buzz with actual electoral support. Just as a decade or so ago, the left convinced itself that Twitter was Britain, only for 14 years of Tory rule and Brexit to ensue, now Very Online rightists with more mobile data than sense are making the same mistake on X. They have memed themselves into believing that not only will Restore Britain make inroads at the next election, but also that Rupert Lowe could be our next prime minister.

It’s adorable. It reminded me of when Owen Jones said Labour had the 2015 election in the bag because Russell Brand had Ed Miliband on his YouTube channel. Only this is infinitely more mental, because most people in 2015 knew who Russell Brand and Ed Miliband were. The same cannot be said for Lowe now. While he may boast north of 600,000 X followers, when he was booted out of Reform last year, pollsters JL Partners showed a photo of him to voters and found that 86 per cent didn’t know him from Adam, including 71 per cent of Reform voters. His profile has undoubtedly grown since then. A poll commissioned by Restore claims 10 per cent of the public would be tempted by a party led by him. But even if those numbers were borne out at the next election – and that’s a monumental ‘if’ – this would, at best, make Restore a potential spoiler party for Reform, in an election expected to come down to the tightest of margins, in the presumably few seats Restore could manage to get any kind of ground game together.

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When people talk of Lowe’s rise, they are talking almost entirely about social media. The former Southampton FC boss was one of the less prominent Reformers elected in 2024. Then Elon Musk began giddily retweeting him, leading Lowe to get so carried away with himself he began openly beefing with his then party leader, saying Farage was leading a ‘protest party’ in ‘messianic’ fashion. The manner of Lowe’s expulsion from Reform was rather shady. He was accused of making death threats to then chairman Zia Yusuf, which were apparently so terrifying it took Yusuf three months to report them. (The Crown Prosecution Service decided not to press charges, citing insufficient evidence.) Since then, he has become the standard bearer of those cranky enough to believe Reform has gone woke.

The critique, such as it is, goes something like this. Reform is soft on illegal immigration, despite pledging to deport up to 600,000 illegal migrants in the first parliament alone. It is also soft on radical Islam, purely, it seems, because British Muslims – like Yusuf and London mayoral candidate Laila Cunningham – hold prominent roles. That both Yusuf and Cunningham support banning the burqa, and are vocal critics of Islamic sectarianism, isn’t enough for those who want Muslims, regardless of their views, banned from office.

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They are also upset about so many Tories flocking to Reform, even though high-profile defections have been an essential ingredient of any insurgent party’s story, from the rise of Labour to the breakaway of the SDP. While many Reformers were scratching their heads about Nadine Dorries, president of the Boris Johnson fan club, or Jake Berry, who was on TV defending Net Zero all of five minutes ago, the same can’t really be said for Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman or Danny Kruger – who, whatever else you might say about them as politicians, are clearly on the same teal-blue page.

‘At the next General Election, we will put forward hundreds of qualified candidates from outside the existing political establishment’, said Lowe on Friday, suggesting Reform are the Tories 2.0. ‘They will not be failed ministers. They will not be politicians.’ I can’t help wondering who these people are going to be. Those who couldn’t clear Reform’s vetting procedure? He might think Reform has become a retirement home for failed Tories, but if it’s not careful, Restore will become a clown car for people too batty or racist for Reform.

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I know there are many people who like Lowe because they see him as another noble crusader against grooming gangs, mass migration and all the other very real ills of multicultural Britain. But he has also turned the heads of the racist freaks who just want to deport everyone who isn’t white British. People like Steve Laws, a ‘remigration’ influencer, who has offered Restore Britain his enthusiastic support, calling on his fellow travellers to get involved. Paul Golding, of BNP offshoot Britain First, has also rowed in behind. I doubt they’ll be on the candidates list. Lowe hasn’t gone as far as them himself. But his dark, plodding diatribes – he once said we should detain illegal migrants on an island and ‘let the midges do the rest’ – clearly appeal to more hardcore ethnonationalists, who are electoral kryptonite.

Almost a year on from his break with Nigel Farage, everything Lowe once said about Reform is much more true of himself. If Farage was ‘messianic’, and leading a ‘protest party’, what does that make Restore Britain, built entirely around one MP and his X account, who clearly fancies himself as Britain’s white-steed-riding saviour? A party for whom the best-case – though still unlikely – scenario electorally would be depriving Reform UK of votes, and risking some Lab-Green-Lib Frankenstein coalition. All so he can bathe in those sweet retweets. The vanity of it all would make Zarah Sultana blush.

Tom Slater is editor of spiked. Follow him on X: @Tom_Slater_.

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Craig Smith: Monetised outrage and the erosion of local government

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Craig Smith: Monetised outrage and the erosion of local government

Cllr Craig Smith is the Deputy Chairman of the Leicestershire Conservatives Area Executive and a councillor for Coalville North Division on Leicestershire County Council.

As someone who uses social media daily, perhaps more accurately, hourly, for both professional and political purposes, you might argue that I am a fine one to talk.

Social media is now embedded in modern politics. For councillors, MPs and campaigners alike, it has become an essential tool. Used responsibly, it allows elected representatives to communicate directly with residents, explain decisions, counter misinformation, share updates and remain visible between elections. In local government, especially where turnout is low and engagement can be difficult, social media can strengthen accountability and trust.

But it is also a double-edged sword.

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One poorly chosen phrase, one comment taken out of context, or one lapse in judgement can spread rapidly and live on indefinitely. Screenshots do not disappear. Nor does the reputational damage that can follow. Any elected representative who uses social media regularly understands that risk.

Yet beyond the danger of accidental missteps, there is a more troubling trend emerging, one that poses a serious challenge to the standards and purpose of public office itself.

Across the political spectrum, a small but growing number of individuals are using social media not to represent, inform or engage, but to provoke. They post deliberately inflammatory content, dismiss serious issues with contempt, or make statements designed to outrage rather than contribute. This behaviour is not spontaneous. It is calculated.

What has changed in recent years is the incentive structure. In the past, such behaviour was often about notoriety, chasing attention, relevance, or the thrill of controversy. Today, it is increasingly about money. Many social media platforms now allow accounts to be monetised. Engagement equals income. Likes, shares, comments and reactions all feed an algorithm that rewards outrage far more generously than nuance. Calm explanation does not travel as far as provocation. Division generates clicks. Anger pays.

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For private individuals, this may be distasteful but largely self-contained. For elected officials, it is profoundly corrosive.

Councillors and MPs are not paid to generate engagement. They are paid by the taxpayer to represent communities, to attend meetings, to scrutinise decisions, to work with officers, to handle casework and to solve real problems. Their role is grounded in service, not performance.

Yet when an elected representative becomes more invested in posting daily rage-bait than in carrying out the duties of office, the line between public service and personal profit begins to blur.

This is not about free speech. Elected officials are entitled to hold strong views, express unpopular opinions and challenge orthodoxies. Robust debate is healthy in a democracy. But there is a clear distinction between principled disagreement and deliberately provocative content designed solely to inflame emotions and drive engagement.

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The issue becomes even more troubling when those posts target vulnerable groups, trivialise serious matters, or dismiss lived experiences, not as part of a reasoned argument, but as a repeated tactic to provoke reaction. When this behaviour becomes routine, it raises legitimate questions about priorities.

Is the primary focus representation, or revenue?

Local government already faces a crisis of trust. Turnout in local elections remains stubbornly low. Many residents feel disconnected from councils and cynical about politics at a local level. When councillors appear more interested in building personal online brands than in addressing potholes, planning disputes or social care pressures, that cynicism deepens.

Worse still, the accountability mechanisms are weak.

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You cannot sack an elected councillor for neglecting their duties in favour of monetised social media activity. Codes of conduct are narrow, slow-moving and often ill-suited to dealing with behaviour that is provocative but technically permissible. Party discipline can be applied only to members of the same party, and even then, it is blunt and politically sensitive.

Until the next election, an elected representative is largely free to continue treating public office as a platform for outrage, regardless of the damage done to public discourse or community cohesion.

This creates a perverse incentive. The most extreme voices receive the most attention. Sensible councillors doing unglamorous but vital work rarely go viral. Meanwhile, those willing to say the most shocking thing possible are rewarded with clicks, followers and, increasingly, cash. The result is a distortion of local political debate. Serious issues are drowned out by provocation. Nuanced policy discussions are replaced by culture-war soundbites. Council chambers become secondary to comment sections.

This is not merely a question of tone. It is about the purpose of public office.

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If local government becomes a stepping stone to monetised outrage, rather than a vehicle for service and delivery, it risks losing credibility altogether. Residents rightly expect that the people they elect will focus on local priorities, not on feeding an algorithm.

There is also a wider reputational cost. When a handful of councillors behave this way, it reflects poorly on local government as a whole. The vast majority of councillors, across all parties, work hard, unpaid or modestly paid, juggling employment, family life and public service. Their efforts are undermined when public perception is shaped by the loudest and most extreme voices.

Conservatives, in particular, should be concerned about this trend.

Local government has long been one of the party’s strengths: practical problem-solving, fiscal responsibility, community leadership. That tradition is incompatible with treating public office as a side hustle built on outrage.

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If we believe in responsibility, service and accountability, then we must be willing to call out behaviour that corrodes those values, even when it is technically permissible, legally protected or politically inconvenient.

None of this requires new laws or heavy-handed regulation. But it does require a cultural shift. Parties, associations and local leaders need to be clearer about expectations. Voters need to ask harder questions about what their representatives actually do between elections. And elected officials themselves need to reflect on whether their online conduct serves their community or merely themselves.

Social media is here to stay. Used well, it can strengthen democracy. Used cynically, it can cheapen it.

Public office should never be reduced to a revenue stream fuelled by division. Those elected to serve should remember a simple truth: their salary comes from the public purse, and their mandate comes from the people they represent, not from an algorithm that rewards outrage.

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David Willetts: Is there a better way to pay for higher education?

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David Willetts: Is there a better way to pay for higher education?

David Willetts was Minister for Universities and Science 2010-2014 and is a member of the House of Lords.

Many areas of British public policy are subject to wild oscillations and turbulence. Funding higher education is much more stable. For the past twenty years all three political parties, faced with difficult decisions about how to pay for it, have opted for broadly the same model. But as we are seeing again now that does not mean the system is accepted let alone actually welcomed.

Is there a better way?

Graduates do earn more on average than non-graduates. So it is reasonable to expect them to pay back for the cost of their higher education. The repayments, at the rate of 9 per cent, depend on your income and only start above a threshold which for many graduates now stands at £28,470. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has some useful illustrations of what that means.

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Someone earning £35,000 a year pays back £49 per month, 1.6 per cent of their gross earnings. This rises to £161 a month (3.9 per cent) for someone earning £50,000 and £311 a month (5.3 per cent) for someone earning £70,000.

My focus as minister for universities was to try to hold down the monthly payments which is why we increased the repayment threshold to £21,000 from the level we inherited from Labour. But we were also expecting people to pay back more in total during their working lives.

The burden of graduate “debt” is now a highly charged political issue.

The volume of the debt is a genuine source of concern to many graduates, even though it is not like a commercial loan or a mortgage. (Indeed because it is not a commercial debt with an obligation to pay back whatever your circumstances mortgage lenders look not at the debt but at the repayment as part of fixed out-goings.)

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However the debt has turned out much higher than we planned fifteen years ago because of the subsequent decision in 2016 to convert all maintenance grants into loans, adding to the debt. There were also concerns that people needed help on masters courses so loans were extended to them. There was then the burst of high inflation which put up the debt as well especially for graduates earning over about £52,000 for whom there is an interest rate of RPI plus 3 per cent.

The interest rate has always been the issue which arises most unhappiness.

The last big review of higher education funding by Philip Augar proposed there should be a cap of 120 per cent on the total amount of debt. That should now be implemented. There are other attractive proposals as well. Uprating the amount due by CPI not RPI. After setting the higher repayment threshold the Coalition also said it should increase with earnings and that pledge has not always been honoured – indeed it is the latest freeze to the threshold which has inflamed such controversy.

Meanwhile where is the Conservative Party in all this?

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The Conservative Party is not obliged to have a position on every part of Government policy. One of the luxuries of opposition is to have some capacity to choose the ground on which to fight. But there is a clear undercurrent of hostility to universities and a belief that too many go. Somehow the growth of higher education is attributed to Tony Blair’s 50 per cent target. But I’ve never met a student who says they went to university because he required them to go and Conservative Governments quite rightly did not set such targets.

The growth of higher education – here and around the world – is the result of choices of young people.

But these student choices need to be well-informed. That is why I fought long and hard to get much better more granular data on labour market outcomes course by course.

Some courses do appear to offer poor economic returns though that involves taking data for some years after graduation and turning it into a forecast of lifetime earnings. And there are other returns to higher education – such as better health including more resilience on mental health – which are not all caught by pay. Nevertheless there needs to be tough intervention from the Office for Students when universities appear to be performing badly. However if the state takes the draconian state of closing down specific courses, we cannot assume that these students will automatically sign on for apprenticeships, even if they are available. They may instead wish to study something else somewhere else.

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Conservatives used to be more comfortable with people going to university, seeing it as a route to a decent job. Young people can’t take that for granted now, if they every could. But nor is it hopeless. Between the ages of 23 and 31 earnings grow by 72 per cent for graduates more than double the 31 per cent for non-graduates. For graduates who were on free school meals at school their average earnings growth in those crucial starter years in the jobs market is 75 per cent whereas for non-graduates it is 26 per cent. This may be one of the reasons polling shows 87 per cent of graduates do not regret going to university.

Graduates are also much more likely to be in work – so just comparing the earnings of those in work misses out one of the key benefits. 15 years after school-leaving age just 2 per cent. of graduates are on out-of-work benefits compared with 11 per cent of non-graduates.

Given that the party is keen on work as a route out of poverty and a vehicle for social mobility it seems odd that there is not more embrace of what is still the most powerful route we have to achieve that core Tory ambition.

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Saqib Bhatti: Brexit didn’t cost us 4 per cent, but Labour will argue it did anyway

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Saqib Bhatti: Brexit didn’t cost us 4 per cent, but Labour will argue it did anyway

Saqib Bhatti MP is Shadow Education Minister.  

For years now, anyone who dares to defend the result of the 2016 referendum is met with the same weary refrain: “Brexit made Britain 4 per cent poorer.” It is a claim repeated so often that you would be forgiven for taking it as settled fact. It isn’t.

However, as a beleaguered Keir Starmer looks for ways of shoring up his position and entertaining the ideas of closer and dynamic alignment, we should brace ourselves for Labour Minister after Labour Minister repeating this relentlessly and without mercy.

In truth, the famous “4 per cent GDP hit” is not a measured loss, not an observed collapse, and not proof that Britain “wrecked” its economy by voting Leave. It is a model-based projection — one of several — based on assumptions about what might happen to productivity over the long term. And like any model it can be manipulated.

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The “4 per cent poorer” argument depends entirely on a fictional version of Britain — one that stayed in the EU, avoided every global shock, and followed a perfectly smooth pre-2016 trend forever.

That Britain never existed.

If Brexit had truly wiped 4 per cent off the economy, we would expect to see an obvious and permanent collapse in output. That never happened. Britain’s economy didn’t fall off a cliff as was repeated on steroids during the referendum.

UK GDP continued to grow after 2016. Growth slowed at times, but it remained positive across much of the post-referendum period. Even today, official figures from the Office for National Statistics show the economy still expanding, albeit slowly under this anti-business and pro-trade union Chancellor.

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That is not what a 4 per cent “loss” looks like. It isn’t real.

What is real is that Britain has shown immense strength and resilience. Since 2016, the UK, like every other major economy, the United Kingdom has been hit by numerous major shocks that have done serious damage to the global economy.

The COVID pandemic effectively brought economies to a halt, forcing governments to spend billions subsidising industries that couldn’t keep going. This, once in a lifetime pandemic, led to a collapse in the global supply chain that and hurt economies across the world. In fact, being out of the European Union helped us deal with the pandemic and get our economy back up and running. It was precisely because we were out of the European Union that we had the fastest vaccine rollout in the world and in Europe. This was despite Starmer protesting at the time that we should follow the European Medical Health Agency. That would have meant longer lockdowns and lower GDP.

Coupled with this, we saw major war in Europe for the first time since 1945. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine caused global instability and saw a surge in the cost of energy. This has pushed up bills for families and businesses which has done nothing for economic growth.

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Germany has suffered recession. France has stagnated and President Macron can’t even pass a budget. The idea that Britain’s performance exists in a vacuum is simply false. In fact, The UK economy has outgrown Japan, Germany, Italy and France since 2016. The only thing that has threatened that has been Rachel Reeves and thi

If Brexit had been uniquely catastrophic, Britain would stand out dramatically from comparable economies. It doesn’t.

Now of course, when you have huge constitutional change as we did when we left the European Union there may well have been some short-term cost. But any common-sense analysis of the facts will show it isn’t the 4% drop in GDP that is oft repeated. It is just as likely to be negligible and more likely to be a net positive impact in the long-term. That depends on us. Our future is in our hands.

Brexit reshaped Britain’s trading relationships. It created challenges and opportunities. Reasonable people can debate whether it was the right choice, but pretending that Brexit definitively “destroyed” 4 per cent of GDP is not economics, it’s politics.

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Now Keir Starmer’s back is against the wall, pursuing dynamic alignment where the UK ends up being a rule-taker and paying for the privilege is a foolhardy way of buying off his backbenchers. Unfortunately, it won’t work and will leave the UK in a worse off position with unelected bureaucrats once again dictating to us how we should live our lives. No wonder the EU economy commissioner has said this month that the European bloc is ready to engage with “an open mind” when asked about a customs union.

In this context, Keir Starmer’s attacks on Brexit and its impact on the economy are as predictable as they are risible. If we want an honest national conversation about growth, productivity, and our place in the world we must not let Labour politicians use recycled myths to scare the British public into a new settlement with the European Union.

The British public deserve better than that.

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The lie at the heart of Starmer’s ‘Brexit reset’

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The lie at the heart of Starmer’s ‘Brexit reset’

Keir Starmer is making no secret of the fact that his ‘Brexit reset’ is part of a longer-term plan to move the UK closer to the EU. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference last week, he said ‘We are not the Britain of the Brexit years anymore’. The so-called dynamic alignment being proposed by Starmer means committing to put EU regulations into UK law, without our elected representatives having any say on them.

Underpinning this policy is the assumption that Brexit continues to cause catastrophic losses to the UK economy. In particular, it seems to have become an article of faith among many politicians and commentators that Brexit has been disastrous for UK trade. There is just one problem with this claim: it is not true.

Last Thursday, UK trade data for 2025 were published, meaning we now have 10 years of data since the EU referendum and five years’ worth since Britain left the Customs Union.

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The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has consistently argued, even as recently as November 2025, that Brexit would cause a four per cent hit to UK productivity, based on the assumption that leaving the EU would cause total trade (imports plus exports) to be 15 per cent lower than if we had stayed in. So what do the latest trade data tell us about the OBR’s assumption?

All sides should acknowledge that working out the counterfactual of remaining in the EU is not easy. In the first place, it is not clear what is the best reference point for measuring any Brexit effect. One option is to use 2015, the year before the referendum. Another would be 2019, the year before we officially left the EU in January 2020. Perhaps when looking at trade, it would be better to use 2020 as the starting point, given we only left the EU Customs Union in January 2021. The difficulty there is that global trade in 2020 was significantly affected by Covid.

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However, whatever starting point we use, the latest data show that total UK trade has actually increased since 2015, even allowing for inflation. Now you might expect trade to increase over time as the economy gets bigger. In fact, UK trade in real terms has grown faster than GDP. And this is true for both imports and exports.

Between 2015 and 2025, total UK exports in real terms increased by 23 per cent, compared to GDP growth of just 14.4 per cent. Since 2019, exports are 6.9 per cent up while GDP increased by just 5.2 per cent. And the 2025 data reveal exports have increased by two per cent since 2024 compared to a 1.3 per cent growth in GDP.

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Might UK trade have increased even more had we stayed in the EU? If we look behind the total figures, we can see that exports in goods to the EU have dropped since Brexit. But that fall has been more than compensated by increases in services trade, particularly to non-EU countries.

In terms of establishing a causal impact from Brexit, it’s important to remember that we have maintained tariff- and quota-free trade in goods with the EU, under the terms of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement. It is, however, true that some non-tariff barriers have increased, such as administrative checks for goods at the border. Thus, it is likely that some of the fall in goods exports to the EU is indeed due to Brexit. But we need to be cautious even on this point, as a number of factors unrelated to Brexit have contributed to the decline in UK goods exports.

High energy prices and carbon taxes have led manufacturers, particularly in the chemicals sector, to shift production away from the UK. At the same time, government policy has reduced North Sea oil production. As a result, exports have declined in both of those sectors. Exports to the EU have also been affected by weak demand in key EU countries such as Germany, which only narrowly avoided recession last year. Without doubt, UK goods exports would have decreased in recent years even had we stayed in the EU.

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But there is another effect that is less well known. Since leaving the EU, changes in ‘rules of origin’ criteria, used to determine the ‘economic nationality’ of a product, mean that goods produced outside the UK, imported here and then exported to Europe, are now no longer classified as exports (tropical fruits and nuts, for instance, are often imported from the Commonwealth and then re-exported to the EU). In other words, some of the decrease in reported exports to the EU is due to how the data are now measured, rather than any actual reduction in exports. When you consider all of these factors, it is all the more notable that total reported exports have increased so much since Brexit.

And when it comes to services, a sector much more important to UK trade than goods, Brexit was followed by a demonstrable reduction in the OECD’s services-restrictiveness index. In part this is due to the many service-focused trade deals we have made with other countries, including with Australia, India and the 11 countries in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Crucially, these trade deals would have been literally impossible had we stayed in the EU. Indeed, even rejoining the Customs Union, as potential Labour leadership contender Wes Streeting and deputy PM David Lammy have both advocated, would mean those post-Brexit trade deals would have to be abandoned.

Overall, the net impact of Brexit on trade is impossible to know for sure. But it seems likely that, if anything, Brexit has resulted in an increase in total trade. Certainly, the OBR’s assumption that Brexit would result in a 15 per cent hit to UK trade is simply implausible in the light of the real data.

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And if Brexit hasn’t hit trade, it is hard to see how it could have significantly hit the UK economy. A recent working paper argues that Brexit has meant UK GDP is eight per cent lower than it would otherwise have been. But this outcome is just as inconsistent with the actual data as the OBR’s trade assumption.

In recent years, the UK’s GDP per capita has grown faster than many of our big rivals who stayed in the EU, most notably Germany. The real outlier is the US, where economic growth has far outpaced both the UK and the big EU countries. And the reasons for that divergence are nothing to do with Brexit. Instead, they include the fact that, unlike most of the EU and the UK, the US has largely refused to pursue climate policies that lead to disastrously high energy costs for industry.

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If it were true that Britain’s GDP would have been eight per cent higher without Brexit, the implication is that UK economic growth would have leap-frogged the other EU countries and actually rivalled that of the US. Again, this is just implausible.

Given other factors such as Covid, energy prices and the Ukraine war, it is hard to be certain whether the net impact of Brexit on the UK economy so far has been positive or negative. But looking at how well UK trade and GDP has held up relative to our big EU rivals, we can be confident any negative effect has been small at worst.

Starmer’s EU reset has little chance of improving sclerotic economic growth in the UK. Dynamic alignment of food regulations might lead to a small increase in UK exports to the EU, but it will benefit EU farmers more than our own – not least as we import vastly more food than we export to the EU market. And by imposing EU regulations on the whole UK economy, there will also be costs: a higher regulatory burden for UK producers, higher prices for UK consumers as it becomes more difficult for us to import cheaper alternatives to EU products, risks to trade deals with countries like the US and, of course, the democratic deficit from us having to accept EU laws with no say from our elected representatives. Even worse, it seems likely that we will have to pay the EU significant sums of money for the privilege of following its laws. Good job the chancellor has plenty of cash to spare!

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Keir Starmer’s policy of tying the UK to the EU’s regulatory orbit is not based on real-world data or on a solid analysis of likely benefits to the UK economy. The PM is blindly following Remainer dogma.

David Paton is professor of industrial economics at Nottingham University Business School. Follow him on X: @CricketWyvern.

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Starmer denies knowing Labour together ‘spied’ on journalists

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Starmer denies knowing Labour together ‘spied’ on journalists

Keir Starmer has denied knowing that the shady ‘Labour Together’ sabotage outfit that put him into Labour’s top seat was spying on journalists. But his office and front bench were knee-deep in it. And the details keep coming out.

Labour Together goes after Murdoch hacks

Labour Together’s spying on journalists has been public knowledge for months. But those were independent, left-wing journalists and authors. So none of the ‘mainstream’ media or political establishment cared much. But now it’s public that it was using the same PR firm to dig — and allegedly make up-dirt on two hacks working for press baron Rupert Murdoch. So it’s suddenly ‘become’ a scandal.

So far, so predictable. But as more information comes out, Starmer’s denials look increasingly hollow. We already know that his disgraced, recently-resigned chief of staff Morgan McSweeney ran Labour Together for much of the critical period. We know also know that his cabinet minister Steve Reed was involved up to the elbows. So was Reed’s fellow cabinet minister Lisa Nandy. And Josh Simons, now a Starmer front-bencher, ordered the £30k spying campaign.

But yet another tight-link to Starmer has come out.

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Courting APCO

In September 2025, Starmer’s strategy director Paul Ovenden was forced to resign after his obscene messages leaked to the hard-right media.

And in breaking news, we now know that Ovenden’s wife, Kate Forrester, was Director of APCO Worldwide — the firm Labour Together hired to spy on and smear two Sunday Times journalists who were investigating its “slush funds and secret donations”.

If Succession or Billions came up with this kind of psycho-drama plot, people would say it was too far-fetched. In Keir Starmer’s ‘Labour’, reality is too wild for fiction.

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Goodwin rakes in cash from Hungarian far-right

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Goodwin rakes in cash from Hungarian far-right

“We want are country back” may be the regular refrain of the British far right, but it seems their candidate in the Gorton and Denton by-election in Manchester, Matthew Goodwin, isn’t afraid of a bit of foreign cash.

Or a lot of foreign cash.

British far-right, courts Hungarian far-right

According to a new exposé by the Goodlaw Project, Goodwin has been taking as much as ten grand a month from a Hungarian far right institution that serves as a propaganda machine for fascist Hungarian premier Viktor Orbán.

Even worse, from a British ‘fash’ point of view, it’s not even ten grand in ‘fine English pounds’ — but 10,000 euros. The horror.

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Of course, the UK far right is no stranger to a bit of hypocrisy, either. Just ask the various child abusers behind the ‘grooming gang’ moral panic – or the immigrant-smugglers protesting outside asylum-seeker hotels. But they don’t like being outed and put on the spot about it.

Poaching wealthy donors

Goodwin’s not the only one taking wads from Hungary’s so-called ‘Mathias Corvinus Collegium’ (MCC). MCC has been ladling moolah onto the British far-right, but Mr G seems to have been a leading beneficiary.

Some residents of Gorton and Denton may not have been put off voting Reform by Goodwin being a posh southern academic who wants girls to get pregnant younger. But they might just be put off by him taking cash from Johnny foreigner.

In Euros, to boot, Goodwin’s cashflow speaks volumes.

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Trans safety at risk as Labour issues transphobic school guidance

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Trans safety at risk as Labour issues transphobic school guidance

On 12 February, the government announced that it will soon publish guidance for schools regarding trans pupils. The press release states that schools must take a “very careful approach” when a pupil “asks to socially transition”.

‘Social transition’ refers to the non-medical aspects of transitioning. It can include changing one’s name, wearing different clothes, and using different pronouns.

The press release goes on to state that:

It clearly sets out that single sex spaces must be protected. Without exception, no child should be made to feel unsafe through inappropriate mixed sex sport, and there should be no sharing of school and college toilet facilities over eight years old or mixed sex sleeping arrangements on trips.

It is also vital that schools and teachers are aware of any child’s birth sex to be able to take appropriate action where needed, so the guidance will also make clear that this must be accurately recorded in school and college records.

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Single sex spaces “must be protected” — with the ‘from trans kids’ left implicit. No child should be made to feel unsafe — with the ‘no cis child’ unsaid but clearly in mind. These statements frame trans children as a threat, and as potential deceivers.

Even the framing of “asking” to transition socially implies that it’s not utterly ridiculous for a school to refuse to use a pupil’s chosen name and pronouns. But then, that’s the level that the UK has sunk to. Any aspect of transness is now considered a legitimate topic for debate.

‘Political football’

Joining in on the game of political football that is trans existence, education secretary Bridget Phillipson said:

Parents send their children to school and college trusting that they’ll be protected. Teachers work tirelessly to keep them safe. That’s not negotiable, and it’s not a political football.

That’s why we’re following the evidence, including Dr Hilary Cass’s expert review, to give teachers the clarity they need to ensure the safeguarding and wellbeing of gender questioning children and young people.

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Likewise, the draft guidance itself also states repeatedly that it is supported by Dr Hilary Cass. Cass wrote the Cass report, which was filled with spurious abuses of science in the name of denying healthcare to trans children.

The press release stated that the draft guidance was:

Backed by Baroness Cass, whose review warned that strong evidence about the impact of social transition remains limited, the guidance says children’s wellbeing and safeguarding must be at the centre of every decision and schools cannot take a one size fits all approach.

Cass was completely inexperienced with trans healthcare before she was chosen to write her review. However, she was at least a medical doctor. By contrast, her expertise regarding social transition – which has nothing to do with gender medicine – is less than worthless. It follows that Labour set so much store by her opinion.

‘Losing any hope’

Meanwhile, experts and campaigners who are actually invested in the wellbeing of trans youth have condemned the draft guidance.

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Cal Horton, a researcher specialising in trans youth, stated that:

Trans children need to be supported and respected in order to be safe at school, in order to access their right to education, in order to enjoy their childhood.

Instead, we are seeing a complete ban on access to appropriate toilets, PE, accommodation on school trips, a complete erosion of their rights.

It will lead to children avoiding the bathroom, avoiding exercise, missing out on school trips, dropping out of school, losing any hope of education, equality, friendship, happiness.

Likewise, advocacy organisation Trans Actual was scathing in its reaction:

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It’s absurd for this Government’s proposed guidance to suggest that schools need to seek clinical advice if a young person wants to change their name, uniform or hairstyle.

Being trans is not a medical condition nor is it an unwanted life outcome to be guarded against, it is a healthy way that many people choose to express themselves.

All young people need safe and supportive schools yet this Government’s proposed guidance risks leading to trans young people being outed to their families against their wishes.

As it stands, this guidance does nothing to help schools to include trans pupils – nor to address the epidemic of anti-trans bullying promoted by misogynist influencers.

The guidance will not become law until September of this year. However, if this draft is anything to go by, the final document will continue Labour’s current streak of kicking trans people and calling it fair play.

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At its heart, this document refuses to treat trans schoolchildren as the vulnerable minority they are, and instead figures them as an active threat to the cis majority.

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Green By-Election Candidate Slaps Down Reform Rival’s Offer For Head-To-Head Debate

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Green By-Election Candidate Slaps Down Reform Rival's Offer For Head-To-Head Debate

The Green Party candidate for the Gorton and Denton by-election has rejected her Reform rival’s invitation for a head-to-head debate.

While both parties have described the crunch contest to win another seat in parliament as a case of “Green vs Reform”, Hannah Spencer hit back at Matt Goodwin by pointing out they had already debated in two public forums.

Meanwhile, Labour insisted the Reform move demonstrated they were picking up more support in the traditionally red seat that expected.

It comes as the contest in the Greater Manchester, expected to be a three-horse race between the Greens, Labour and Reform, heats up.

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In a post on X, Goodwin wrote: “I am hereby challenging the Green Party candidate Hannah Spencer to a one-on-one debate about the future of Gorton & Denton.”

In his attached letter to Spencer, the GB News preseneter said previous platforms had only offered one-minute answers to multiple candidates, meaning there was “limited room for a serious discussion”.

“As you have said yourself, this by-election is now a two-horse race between Reform and the Green Party,” he said, claiming there had been plenty of “misinformation” about the run-up to polling day.

He offered for it to be hosted by a Green-friendly platform with a moderator of their choosing, with his “only condition” being that it is recorded and published in full afterwards.

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But, in a message to HuffPost UK, Spencer hit back: “Hi Matt, we literally just debated in the BBC studio and last week at the Manchester Evening News hustings.

“It’s not a game of the best of three. It sounds like you’re concerned you didn’t come across very well and want another go.

“I’m not sure anyone wants any more of your hot air and I’m focusing my time now on knocking on doors to talk about what really matters to the people of Gorton and Denton.”

Labour told HuffPost UK this race was “Labour versus Reform” last week.

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Following on from Goodwin’s offer, a Labour spokesperson said: “This is a cynical move from a campaign that knows its struggling, and that the Labour vote is holding.

“While Matthew and Hannah play student politics, Labour’s Angeliki Stogia is busy, out on the doors, listening to what matters to the people of Gorton and Denton.”

Labour’s deputy leader Lucy Powell also responded to Goodwin’s letter, saying: “Funny. Matt knows what we know – he’s not doing as well as he’d hoped so is trying to big up the Greens (again) as his only route to victory is to split and suppress the Labour vote (which he knows is holding).

“That, or he’s frit after Angeliki slayed him at the hustings.”

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An almighty row broke out at the Manchester Evening News’ debate last week when Stogia told Goodwin that “women are scared to leave the house” due to the rise in far-right rhetoric.

He replied: “I’m not going to be lectured to by a Labour politician from a party that consistently failed to investigate the mass rape and sexual abuse of working-class kids in this country for 30 years.

“And the reason I have security is because I have very real threats to my life in an area where people assure me everything is fine, and clearly in some parts of this country integration is not working as it should be.”

These spats come after Labour have mocked the Greens for misspelling “Gorton” on some campaign posters, while Rayner previously joked Reform could not find the constituency “on a map”.

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There are 11 candidates standing in the by-election in total, including Charlotte Anne Cadden for the Conservatives and Jackie Pearcey for the Liberal Democrats.

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False messiah of polio eradication

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False messiah of polio eradication

The fallout from the Epstein files has been relentless. Those implicated in the dirty saga include UK Royals, members of our political class, the mainstream media, the “broligrachy,” and others.

Still, one area corporate media coverage has ignored is the convicted sex-trafficker’s feigned interest in polio eradication in the Global South. But why would a notorious predator and trafficker bother to involve himself with healthcare management in South Asia?

No champion of polio eradication

Among the tranche of files released by the US Department of Justice (DOJ) Epstein appears in a video speaking with an off-camera interviewer whose voice resembles Steve Bannon’s. Responding to the interviewer, Epstein justifies his ties to “dirty money,” claiming to have helped with polio eradication in India and Pakistan — a convenient cover for a sex predator.

The Epstein files also include confidential reports on polio eradication efforts in Afghanistan and Pakistan, marked “CONFIDENTIAL — DO NOT CIRCULATE.”

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The emerging pattern is one the Canary has repeatedly reported on. Epstein used his deep pockets to court Western diplomats, global philanthropists, and political figures. His alleged interest in polio work was another power grab. He was using cash to climb the ranks. It was never about vaccines.

He positioned himself in global health by feigning noble interests. The release of the DOJ files proves this was nothing more than a mask to hide his predatory depravity.

Epstein-Gates connection

The DOJ files show that the Gates Foundation was implicated in these lobbying efforts. The organisation — long at the forefront of global polio immunisation efforts — provided substantial funding for these IPI-led campaigns. An email exchange between Rod-Larsen and Epstein in September 2013 showed them discussing how to structure Gates Foundation funding for IPI’s polio work. And another email from the same year, sent by a senior program officer at the Gates Foundation, the IPI was described as well placed to:

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identify potential influencers/high-level contacts that can move the work forward and recommendations for how/whether BMGF, GPEI UN partners (UNICEF/WHO) and others should engage with such contacts.

The same email chains shows Epstein committing to $1 million per year for polio programmes in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Northern Nigeria, and Somalia — a whopping $15 million over five years. He instructed that Bill Gates’ name should not appear on a proposed peace center.

But by March 2015, the relationship had run its course, due to the reputational risk attached to Epstein’s criminal behaviour, and the funds Epstein promised which Gates never received.

Leveraging polio eradication for political gain

Epstein’s interest in polio projects in Pakistan was enabled through associates at the International Peace Institute (IPI), including senior staff.

Terje Rød-Larsen, its former president and ex-diplomat to Norway, is mentioned multiple times in the files. He stepped down from his role in disgrace after his ties to the convicted child-rapist made global headlines. Moreover, Rød-Larsen, as the DOJ files suggest, was a key ally of Epstein. He is currently under investigation by Norwegian police.

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Rød-Larsen and IPI director, Andrea Pfanzelter, received intelligence briefings from a Pakistan-based field operative Nasra Hassan. They forwarded these reports to Epstein. The paper trail begins in April 2013. Emails from Hassan to Rød-Larsen describe meeting with Pakistani tribal leaders and government officials, and their changing position on polio eradication. Commenting on a chat had with a senior member of the Taliban, Hassan said:

It appears that religion-based refusal [of polio vaccination] is a very tiny.

However, the declassified files suggest interest in polio eradication ranked second to political ambitions. In June 2013, Hassan sent an email warning that Bill Gates’ public outreach to Pakistan’s ex-prime minister and opposition figure, Imran Khan, for polio support could jeopardise back-channel talks with the Pakistani Taliban:

This will harden the Pak[istani] Taliban’s position.

She noted that while the Taliban appeared more receptive to polio programmes, they remained opposed to Western involvement. She reminded Rød-Larsen that the group banned polio vaccinations in the Waziristan region in 2012:

alleging the campaign was a cover for espionage.

Hassan reiterated the need for discreet talks, stating that:

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This opposite effect [the possibility of losing Taliban support] emphasizes the IPI position that polio related efforts by politicians MUST be discreet and low-key.

Epstein names Imran Khan a “threat”

Hassan’s warnings about Imran Khan’s public role — specifically his rejection of US imperialism — were echoed years later by Epstein himself. That’s little surprise given Epstein’s infiltration of Western diplomatic circles. He wooed politicians who cosied up to US — cue Peter Mandelson, Ehud Barak, among a long list of politicians he collected.

That’s little surprise given [stuff about Epstein’s political interference]”

Hassan’s warnings about Imran Khan’s public role were echoed years later by Epstein himself.

In 2018, as Drop Site News reporter Ryan Grim noted, Epstein described Khan as “very bad news.”

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Grim linked this to Khan’s political downfall, noting that the US State Department, with help from the Pakistani military, pushed him out of office in 2022.

Khan is subject to ongoing persecution by the military establishment in Pakistan. His party has been suppressed, and he remains behind bars.

Among his opponents, former Indian diplomat, Hardeep Singh Puri, now a senior BJP official in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party, also features in the DOJ files. There were email exchanges between Puri and Epstein. There were five scheduled appointments between June 2014 and January 2017. Unsurprisingly, Puri has defended himself against alleged ties to the sex predator.

Unanswered Questions

Despite the documentary trail exposing Epstein’s attempts to insert polio-related initiatives, by leveraging his wealth, many questions — as raised by Pakistan’s Express Tribune remain unanswered. What was Epstein’s actual role in this network? Did he have ties to intelligence agencies? And why were detailed reports on Taliban leadership and polio access appearing in his inbox?

In the words of Express Tribune reporter, Shireen Qasim:

The emails raise a fundamental question: was the polio work undertaken by operatives like Hassan genuine humanitarian effort that happened to provide access to sensitive locations and information, or was the humanitarian work itself a cover for intelligence gathering – with field reports being systematically forwarded through institutional channels to someone like Epstein who had no public health credentials?

Consider the March 2013 email from Boris Nikolic, Epstein’s science adviser, asking how to deal with violence in Nigeria and Pakistan, who could mediate with the Taliban and Boko Haram, and whether these groups might ever be open to polio eradication.

It is not a stretch to imagine that was no humanitarian angle to Epstein’s interference in South Asia. A man with no background in public health, no government position, a documented history of manipulation and blackmail, and a suspicious interest in polio eradication? Added to that, a sickeningly powerful man with the connections to manoeuvre political instability? The red flag is flaming

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