Reform leader Nigel Farage is running scared of Green leader Zack Polanski. And, in the run-up to the Gorton and Denton by-election, the clash between the two parties could well be a sign of things to come in the British political landscape.

Of course, Farage is refusing a challenge to a face-to-face debate with Polanski. After all, the far-right figurehead is far batter at manufacturing glib soundbites than he is at answering probing questions.

Politics UK posted on social media:

🚨 WATCH: Nigel Farage rejects Zack Polanski’s request for a one-to-one debate

“I generally find that if you pick a fight with a chimney sweep you get covered in soot, so I might just leave that alone”

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“But he’s got a fan club – all the heroin smokers and everything” pic.twitter.com/e5F6H80eV4

— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) February 3, 2026

Farage is a glutton for punishment

In the clip, the interviewer reminded Farage that Polanski had expressed interest in a debate with him. However, that’s not the whole story.

Rather, Reform had previously challenged the Green leader to debate Zia Yusuf, the party’s head of policy. However, that’s not exactly an even matchup, is it?

Yusuf is an unelected benchwarmer for the far-right party who’ll get ditched as soon as another ex-Tory shows up to replace him. Meanwhile, Polanski is a serving member of the London Assembly.

Likewise, Polanski is the leader of his party, rather than being ‘head of policy’ for a party that only has one real policy.

Then, of course, there’s the fact that Yusuf has already debated Polanski. The two both appeared on BBC’s Question Time in December of last year. As I recall, Yusuf got booed for being a slimy little tosser.

The fact Yusuf appears eager to repeat the experience is his own business. However, Polanski was eager to debate – but against a fellow party leader:

Dear @ZiaYusufUK,

As I keep saying, I would be more than happy to debate, leader to leader, with Nigel Farage.

I’m starting to get the impression he might not be keen?

Maybe you could be kind enough to pass this message on?

Hugs, Zack.

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— Zack Polanski (@ZackPolanski) February 2, 2026

‘Hugs, Zack’

Addressing Yusuf on social media, the Green leader wrote:

As I keep saying, I would be more than happy to debate, leader to leader, with Nigel Farage.

I’m starting to get the impression he might not be keen?

Maybe you could be kind enough to pass this message on?

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Polanski then signed off with a cheeky little “Hugs, Zack”.

However, Farage was far less willing to face Polanski in a head-to-head debate. When he was reminded of the Green leader’s challenge, Farage tried to brush it off, stating:

No, I generally find that if you pick a fight with a chimney sweep you get covered in soot, so I might just leave that alone for now.

And that’s the nearest to an insult I’ll ever come, alright?

But you know, he’s got a fan club – all the heroin smokers and everything think he’s absolutely marvelous.

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Apparently, calling a fellow schoolmate a “stupid Yid” doesn’t count as an insult. But anyway.

Running scared

Of course, it’s not surprising that Farage is running scared from a debate – he’s shite at them. In 2024, the Reform leader threw a tantrum and announced that he was boycotting the BBC after getting thrashed on Question Time himself.

Attendees grilled the party leader on immigration, health care, and his campaign activists’ racist and homophobic remarks. In return, Farage accused the BBC of rigging the audience.

As a side note, Farage seems to love boycotting the BBC – especially when people point out that he’s a racist sack of shit. Likewise, he’s also made a habit of accusing debate audiences of being left-wing plants whenever he starts losing.

You see, like most members of the far right, Farage can’t hold up in a debate he can’t control. He pulls stunts and generates headlines, but his ideas fall down under basic scrutiny.

Given his obvious ambition to install himself as the UK’s prime minister, Farage had better get comfortable in the hot seat pretty sharpish. Otherwise, the public might start to notice that he’s a hollow, bigoted authoritarian with no real answers. And we’d hate to see that now, wouldn’t we?

Featured image via the Canary

In the aftermath of the acquittal of six of the Filton 24, pressure groups and the families of the vindicated prisoners have spoken about what the verdict could mean.

Pressure group CAGE responds

The refusal to convict any of the six defendants of any charges, including on the most serious of charges, is a powerful affirmation of jury equity and brings to a humiliating end one of the most politically charged trials of this year thus far.

The decision made by the jury critically undermines the rationale used to proscribe Palestine Action, and underscores the urgent need for that ban to be lifted. This case was the most significant test of the government’s claim that acts of conscience against arms companies constitute a threat to public safety.

An independent jury, guided by conscience and moral clarity, rejected that narrative despite extraordinary political pressure, ministerial intervention, and an environment shaped to shield Israeli state-aligned interests from scrutiny.

The verdict echoes a wider public rejection of Zionist impunity, and growing support for direct action against companies complicit in genocide.

The trial has exposed how pre-trial detention and public spectacle were used to punish the defendants in advance and to deter others from challenging Israel’s largest arms manufacturer. The proscription of Palestine Action must now be lifted, and all those held as a result of this political process in prison should be released immediately.

The trial demonstrated that counter-terrorism and national security frameworks are being used in line with their established purpose: to silence dissent and shield state complicity in crimes from accountability. Context was excluded, and scrutiny of Elbit systems – Israel’s largest weapons manufacturer – supplying an ongoing genocide was treated as a matter to be suppressed rather than examined.

Naila Ahmed, Head of Campaigns at CAGE, said:

This is a huge victory for the movement but nationally and abroad who campaigned on behalf of the defendants, and a powerful affirmation of jury independence and moral courage in the face of extraordinary political pressure.

Though they cannot get back the 17 months of their life taken from them unlawfully, they should all be compensated and the remaining 18 defendants of the Filton 24 should also be released on bail. This case was used to justify the ban against Palestine Action, a decision that should now be overturned.

CAGE calls for full compensation for those acquitted, a lifting of the ban on Palestine Action, an independent review into the political handling of the case, and the abolition of terror laws. The acquittal should prompt serious reflection on how easily due process can be eroded when political interests are at stake.

Filton24 Defence Committee

lisa minerva luxx, a representative of the Filton24 Defence Committee said:

Today’s significant victory delivered by the jury has vindicated the six defendants, who are the first six on trial from the Filton 24.

There are still 18 more defendants imprisoned across the UK in connection with this case. They are being held under joint enterprise which means they each have the same 3 charges whether they are accused of being present at the action or not. Now that the first 6 have been liberated of the most serious charge, Aggravated Burglary, and none were convicted of a single offence, it follows that the rest must immediately have this charge dropped against them, and be granted bail.

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This was a trial by media. Yvette Cooper and Keir Starmer took evidence in this case out of context and broadcast it on televisions and tabloids across the country in order to justify proscribing Palestine Action as a terrorist organisation, despite forewarning that this will prejudice the trial.

By acquitting the defendants of aggravated burglary, the Jury aligned with the defence case that the items taken in to the warehouse were not weapons, but were tools used to dismantle and neutralise Israeli weapons.

Now that a court of law have vindicated the first six of the Filton 24 of the exaggerated charges against them [and found that the actions against Elbit Systems that night were reasonable], we should all expect Shabana Mahmood to do the reasonable thing herself and lift the ban on Palestine Action.

It’s time for the British state to accept that the movement for a liberated Palestine has been, and will continue to be, justified.

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Filton 24 relatives respond

Clare Rogers, mother of Zoe Rogers said:

Our loved one’s action against Elbit Systems and the state’s brutal response have exposed the true values of the government. The government is determined to do business with Israel and protect its weapons industry at any cost. Our loved ones dared to poke this beast – and no expense has been spared in policing prosecuting and imprisoning them without trial. Imagine if the government had put the same amount of money, resources and political will into preventing a genocide.

As the court heard, these are six young people of conscience and compassion. They took action against Israeli weapons manufacturer Elbit Systems in Filton, Bristol, because they could not sit by and do nothing while their country armed Israel’s genocide. They had tried everything else – marches, petitions, writing to MPs, encampments – and they could see that the government was not only breaking international law but was ignoring the will of its own people. They felt they had no option but to take action themselves, to try to save as many lives as they could.

Inside the Elbit facility, they found deadly quadcopter drones packed up ready for export, and were able to destroy some of them with crowbars and sledgehammers. These are the type of drones the Israeli military uses in Gaza to drop explosives, typically after a bomb has been dropped, to target survivors.

Emma Kamio, mother of Leona (Ellie) Kamio said:

The police strategically released selected clips of footage during the trial, including the incident where Sam had struck a police officer. This was devoid of all context. The public were not told that Sam had just been blinded by PAVA spray and acted to protect my daughter while unable to see.

Ellie had been tasered twice at this point, the second time by accident, and the police officer who did so was dragging her up off the ground in one handcuff while standing on her abdomen and screaming at her to stay down. The whole time she had painful tazor barbs still in her arm and thigh as he dragged her around.

So she was screaming in pain, and was never resisting arrest. At this point, Samuel Corner had witnessed a security guard strike his co-defendant with a sledgehammer, and had witnessed excessive force repeatedly by the security. Whilst blinded by PAVA spray, and hearing screams from Ellie, screams which even the police described as “blood curdling”, he could only make out what he thought was a security guard, causing more pain, and did what he could to make it stop.

Striking the police officer was a terrible mistake that I’m sure Sam deeply regrets, but he simply reacted to protect Ellie when he heard the blood curdling scream that came from the second electrical current passing through her body, and all this after having witnessed the violence they experienced from the security guards that night.

Sukaina Rajwani, mother of Fatema Zainab Rajwani said:

‘When they are told, “Do not spread corruption in the land”, they reply, “We are only peace-makers”. Indeed it is they who are the corruptors, but they fail to perceive it.’ (Holy Quran 2:11-12)

I am grateful for every heart that has turned towards this movement, for every hand that has raised in prayer for us, and for every word that has amplified our voice in seeking justice for the Filton 24. Despite the state’s best efforts to silence us and oppress our loved ones; we stand united in strength and power against a corrupt government and an unjust legal system.

Our fight does not end here. We will continue to expose Elbit Systems and British complicity in genocide.

Brogan Devlin, sister of Jordan Devlin said:

Despite having all the odds stacked against them, I can now say with the biggest smile that Jordan has been acquitted of aggravated burglary and violent disorder, and none of the defendants have been convicted of a single offence. The jury could see through the state lies, the political interference and the corruption.

Today we celebrate, tomorrow we rest, but this is not over – Angelo Volante is the name of the Elbit Systems security guard who assaulted my brother multiple times. My heart sank watching the footage of my brother unarmed, being attacked by Volante with a sledgehammer. Jordan was attempting to deescalate the situation when Angelo Volante kicked, choked, struck and even attempted to bit my brother.

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The jury was shown Jordan’s black eye, bruised body and sledgehammer marks. Why was this never released to the media? Throughout the trial we have been silenced by reporting restrictions in a bid to protect Elbit Systems and its violent employees.

Angelo Volante and Elbit Systems should be the ones on trial, not my brother. Thankfully ordinary citizens of the jury could see that and so we leave today with our heads held high and our loved ones by our side.

Featured image supplied

Nigel Farage’s anti-immigration policies are reprehensible racism. And, they’re completely unviable for the economy.

Dr Benjamin Caswell, a senior economist at National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), has said:

Net zero migration leaves the economy 3.6% smaller by 2040 and this reflects slower employment growth and a smaller workforce.

Farage would tank the economy

The vast majority of people coming to the UK are studying or working, or their dependants. In fact, people born outside the UK but living here are more likely to be employed than UK born residents. Towards the end of 2025, 74.7% of UK-born residents were employed, compared to 81.1% of EU born residents and 74.8% of non-EU and non-UK born residents.

Farage’s anti-immigration policies are not only unprincipled, but economically deficient. His party Reform aims to deport 600,000 people from the UK over the course of a parliament. And that’s before you get to added restrictions on people arriving. As NIESR research shows, this would contract the economy because we are relying on people from other countries to support our workforce.

Caswell continued:

Imagine it as like freezing the population where it is, and then just having a continually ageing population. In the short to medium term, it’s not too detrimental, but over 20 years this gap [in spending and receipts] becomes continually larger and larger.

This is because the UK’s fertility rate is just 1.44. In order for the population to be replaced, it must be 2.1.

The cause of less children: inequality

In 1964, the UK’s fertility rate was 2.9. People could afford houses, had free university, and a much cheaper cost of living due to the nationalisation of essentials.  Now no one can afford a home. Many of us don’t have the financial security to have children. Student debt is hanging over us and the cost of living keeps getting worse.

Another issue is the ratio of older people to the workforce. In 1973, there were 21.8 retired people for every 100 people working. Now there are 30.4 retired people for every 100 workers.

As economist Richard Murphy summarises:

We have a system which is, in other words, basically hostile to children; hostile to the actual fact of having children; hostile to the support of children; hostile to the parents who want to support children financially and who can’t because the system makes that nigh on impossible for them to do so. Hostile to the whole idea that we should be able to reproduce in the way that we need to. And now hostile to migrants who might be able to help solve this problem by becoming the teachers and everything else that we need to fill the gaps in the system, or to simply provide the cover to ensure that sufficient nursery care is, for example, available. Everything is hostile to having children.

Automation and technological advancement could solve this. But Farage’s ideological anti-immigrant policies would only make it worse.

Featured image via the Canary

Human Rights Watch (HRW) has spiked its own report describing Israel’s treatment of Palestinians as a “crime against humanity”. It’s Israel-Palestine director Omar Shakir resigned in protest at the decision.

The report, which had been legally approved and was ready for publication, addressed Israel’s denial of Palestinians’ legal ‘right of return’ to their homes and lands. Hundreds of thousands were violently expelled by Zionist militias and UK military in 1948. Many more have been dispossessed or killed since and Israel has forcibly expelled Palestinians from refugee camps.

The report analysed field work in refugee camps in Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria. Despite passing successfully through all HRW’s checklist stages, new executive director Philippe Bolopion shelved it. It was due to go public last December, but Shakir was informed that it had been spiked a fortnight before.

Bolopion’s killing of the report came after a senior HRW official objected on the grounds that it would undermine Israel’s apartheid. Or, as the official put it, that it might:

demographically extinguish the Jewishness of the Israeli state.

‘Lost faith’ in Human Rights Watch leadership

Shakir told Drop Site News that he had lost faith in HRW’s leadership after a decade of hard work:

I’ve given every bit of myself to the work for a decade. I’ve defended the work in very, very difficult circumstances. I have lost faith in our senior leadership’s fidelity to the core way that we do our work, to the integrity of our work, at least in the context of Israel, Palestine.

The refugees I interviewed deserve to know why their stories aren’t being told.

Shakir’s Palestinian researcher Milena Ansari also resigned, leaving HRW without an Israel-Palestine team.

In an attempt to justify its decision, HRW said in a statement that the report was “complex“:

The report in question raised complex and consequential issues. In our review process, we concluded that aspects of the research and the factual basis for our legal conclusions needed to be strengthened to meet Human Rights Watch’s high standards. For that reason, the publication of the report was paused pending further analysis and research. This process is ongoing.

Bill Frelick, HRW’s Refugees and Migrant head, claimed he did not object to Palestinians’ legal right of return. He then questioned whether it really applied any more – in part, ironically, because some Palestinians might have obtained citizenship elsewhere:

To be clear, I am not objecting to our position that the Right of Return (RoR) is, indeed, a human right and that denying the right of return is a human rights violation. I do not think, however, that we have strong grounds for asserting that the denial of this right is a Crime Against Humanity (CAH)…

…I also question the strategic value of HRW advocating in 2025 for Palestinian refugees and their descendants to reclaim homes in present-day Israel that were lost in 1948…

… Does the suffering (and claims) of descendants of refugees who lost their homes in 1948 weaken over time? How does HRW assess whether descendants of refugees from 1948 have maintained ties that keep their claims viable? Does having citizenship in another country have impact on those claims? Are these claims unique to the descendants of Palestinian refugees or do they apply to the descendants of all refugees from all places throughout history?

At least ten percent of Israelis hold dual nationality – probably considerably more now. Iran’s effective retaliation to Israel’s aggression in June 2025 saw a flood of Israelis apply for passports in their original states. Frelick also questioned whether Israel was deliberately causing harm by preventing Palestinians returning to their homes:

Per the requirement of “intentionally” causing great suffering, is Israel’s intent in denying return to cause great suffering or it is rather motivated by Israel’s national security concerns, demographic engineering, or other motivations, and, therefore, whatever suffering it causes would be incidental or consequential to these purposes but not their intent?

“Losing the organization”

According to Drop Site, HRW’s senior management refused attempts to find a compromise and told staff the report could only be published if its scope was limited to Palestinians displaced since 2023 and excluded refugees in other countries. Some 200 staff signed a letter of complaint; 300 participated in an online all-staff meeting and voiced their objections. All were ignored. Participants in the meeting said that human rights defenders were “losing” HRW and that the spiking was indefensible:

We are losing the organization we love and are so passionate about…

…no one will be able to defend the organization.

Quite.

While HRW is frequently critical of Israel, it has also been accused of going soft on its crimes when it matters. Academic and author Immanuel Ness wrote that HRW demonstrates:

continuous and reliable support for positions advanced by the USA, Britain, and Western states.

Featured image via the Canary

As reported by the BBC, Peter Mandelson has made his most brazen claim yet:

Mandelson just told the BBC that when he passed government documents to Jeffrey Epstein he was “acting in the national interest” pic.twitter.com/8NY8YOYeqo

— Nicholas Guyatt (@NicholasGuyatt) February 3, 2026

Sorry, but we’re having a hard time believing that feeding British secrets to an international paedophile was in the “national interest”.

Mandelson and suspected criminal behaviour

As revealed by the latest Epstein Files, Mandelson was feeding the now-dead paedophile confidential government information during the New Labour years:

Peter Mandelson leaked a sensitive UK government document to Jeffrey Epstein while he was business secretary that proposed £20bn of asset sales and revealed Labour’s tax policy plans. https://t.co/vVvoE5TIH9 pic.twitter.com/B31Ba2sKXj

— Financial Times (@FT) February 2, 2026

I’ve been trawling through the Mandelson/Epstein emails and those guys were TIGHT
Here’s Mandelson tipping Epstein off on a major financial announcement while he was Business Secretary and Epstein was on year of probation on house arrest after his conviction and jail sentence pic.twitter.com/nYC32jSg7A

— Robbie G D2theI2theD2theF (@Gruntfutuck) January 31, 2026

In the clip at the top, the BBC’s political editor Chris Mason said:

It’s my understanding that he doesn’t believe he has acted in any way criminally; that he was acting in the national interest. It’s his view, I’m told, that in his dealings with Jeffrey Epstein – particularly during the financial crisis – dealing with Epstein, a man who had knowledge and expertise in banking, was worthwhile.

To give you an idea of how Epstein viewed the world, we know from another leak that he told Palantir boss Peter Thiel Brexit was “just the beginning”. When asked “of what”, Epstein answered:

return to tribalism… counter to globalization. amazing new alliances. you and I both agreed zero interest rates were too high, and as I said in your office, finding things on their way to collapse… was much easier than finding the next bargain

Reading this, do you think it would be in your interests for this man to have access to confidential British secrets?

Because to us, it reads like the grandiose monologuing of a man who wants to burn the world down to sell off the ashes.

Speaking of Peter Thiel and Palantir, as we’ve reported, Starmer’s government has handed this company new contracts worth hundreds of millions.

And the dodginess doesn’t end there.

They are, generally speaking, disgusting people entirely unrepresentative of the country in just about every way.

But a combination of our electoral system (which has so far guaranteed two parties), and the media, has completely insulated them from real accountability.

— Aaron Bastani (@AaronBastani) February 2, 2026

An actual conspiracy

At this point, the connections are obvious. And it’s clear that none of this is being done in the name of Britain’s ‘national interests’.

Featured image via FCDO

Six members of the Filton 24 have been acquitted by a jury in a major victory for anti-genocide protesters. After an 8-day deliberation Charlotte Head, Samuel Corner, Ellie (Leona) Kamio, Fatema Zainab Rajwani, Zoe Rogers, and Jordan Devlin were cleared of all charges brought against them by the Starmer regime. The ‘Filton 24’ are a group of political prisoners held for action to inhibit the manufacture of Israeli weapons used against Palestinians.

The verdicts include the most serious charge, that of aggravated burglary. The jury refused to convict all the defendants of that charge, as well as charges of criminal damage. The ‘conscience’ verdict came despite five of the defendants admitting in court that they had destroyed Israeli weapons and equipment belonging to Israel’s biggest weapons firm, Elbit Systems.

Filton 24 vindicated

The trial exposed the Starmer government’s collusion with Israel and the UK state’s lies about the accused’s actions, when video evidence contradicted the claims of police and security guards.

Corner was also acquitted of a charge of ‘grievous bodily harm with intent’. Corner had been accused of striking a police officer.

The political prisoners’ supporters described the result as a “monumental victory” that has “vindicated” the defendants, who had been smeared by government ministers and state-corporate media as “violent criminals”.

Aggravated burglary carries a potential sentence of life in prison. The not guilty verdicts mean that the jury did not accept the prosecution case that the defendants entered the Elbit weapons factory with the intention of using the items they carried as weapons, or threatened/used unlawful violence against Elbit security guards.

‘Prevent violence’

Instead, the jury agreed with the defence argument that the defendants sole intention was to use the items, including sledgehammers, as tools to disarm Israeli weapons to “prevent violence”.

Campaigners say the refusal to convict the defendants even of criminal damage, despite evidence demonstrating damage of Israeli weapons, shows that the jury:

understood that it is not those who destroy Israeli weapons which are guilty, rather the guilty party in the one that it is deploys such weapons to commit genocide in Gaza.

Featured image via the Canary

Ali Ahmadi, Catherine Barnard and Fiona Costello look at the reasons why asylum seekers come to the UK and to what extent UK asylum policy is a factor in the decision. 

The government’s flagship Restoring Order and Control policy is based upon the claim that tougher asylum policy will deter asylum seekers from coming to the UK. The proposals include measures such as temporary refugee status, scrapping family reunion, a longer route to settlement (up to 30 years), and limited access to benefits. These are intended, according to the Home Secretary, to reduce the ‘pull factors’ and/or the ‘generosity’ of the UK’s asylum offer. The logic is that if the UK makes the asylum system less attractive, fewer asylum seekers will come to the UK.

But what does evidence say about why (some) asylum seekers choose the UK as their destination? And to what extent does the UK’s asylum policy influence these decisions?

For asylum seekers heading to Europe and the UK, the strongest pull factor is social networks. Research consistently shows that first-time asylum applicants are more likely to apply in countries where they have family members, friends, and/or established diaspora communities. A 2023 analysis of asylum applications within the European Union (from 2008 to 2020) found that the number of previous asylum seekers and migrants from the same origin country was the biggest influence on where new asylum seekers went. The study also found that restrictive welfare policies and employment bans had only a ‘modest’ impact on the flow of asylum seekers. Similarly, the Home Office’s own research into ‘asylum seeker decision-making’ found that social networks were among the most influential factors in choosing a destination.

Family reunion seems to be a strong determinant of destination for asylum seekers. It is for this reason that the Home Office scrapped the refugee family reunion route last year. Although it is not possible to quantify its deterrent impact, it will likely discourage some asylum seekers from coming to the UK. However, the impact will likely be limited as most asylum seekers do not apply for family reunion. For instance, between 2023 and 2025, there was one arrival via family reunion for every five new grants of refugee status to adult main applicants. It is also possible that scrapping the possibility of family reunion will increase the number of ‘illegal’ arrivals via small boats, as entire family units might attempt crossing the channel rather than waiting for the main applicant to come and then apply for family reunion. Evidence from Europe and Australia shows that when reunion visas are unavailable, some families and children follow unauthorised routes.

The evidence on the effect of granting temporary rather than permanent status to asylum seekers is mixed. The probability of obtaining protection status matters a lot for asylum seekers, but there is not much research comparing temporary and permanent alternatives. When Sweden began granting permanent rather than temporary residency for Syrian refugees in 2013 this led to a ‘clear and fast, yet temporary,’ increase in Syrian asylum applications. This indicates that asylum policies can directly affect asylum flows. Yet other studies found no connection between permanent status rules and the number of asylum applications in European countries. When it comes to migration decisions more broadly, having access to permanent residence appears to be important, but not the length of time it takes to obtain it. Therefore, it is unlikely that the Home Office’s temporary status proposal will have any meaningful effect on arrivals.

Colonial and historical ties also have major influence on migration decisions. Asylum seekers from countries with past British rule, like Sudan or Pakistan, are more likely to come to the UK due to the colonial connection and established communities. This shows that language and educational content are part of making the UK a favourable destination for some asylum seekers. These factors are largely out of the UK government’s control.

It is also plausible that people refused asylum in the EU might see UK as their final chance, because it lacks access to shared asylum databases after Brexit. It is hard/impossible to know the number of arrivals motivated by this factor, but if it is at all significant, making the UK’s asylum policies more restrictive may have only a limited deterrent effect on this group who are desperate and do not have any other option available.

Evidence also suggests that ‘push factors’ from France encourage onward movements. For asylum seekers living in makeshift camps, life is often precarious and inhumane. Reports from Human Rights Watch have documented police brutality and abusive practices, limited access to water and sanitation facilities, and dependence on local associations for food distributions. In general, ‘push factors’ seem to be the main drivers of forced displacement. This is why some studies suggest that deterrence rarely works as it does not address the underlying factors such as conflict.

Ultimately, for all the government’s changes, evidence shows that asylum seekers have limited knowledge of asylum policies in destination countries. Most have vague and/or inaccurate information, particularly concerning their entitlements and requirements. Studies also suggest that the majority of asylum seekers rely on rumours, smugglers, and friends for information about destination countries and ‘very few’ are fully informed. This was also confirmed by the Home Office’s own research:

“They [asylum seekers] are guided more by agents, the presence or absence of family and friends, language, and perceived cultural affinities than by scrutiny of asylum policies or rational evaluation of the welfare benefits on offer.”

The available evidence shows that there is a far more complex relationship between asylum policy and asylum inflow than a simple ‘pull factor’ model would suggest. While the Home Office wants to manage asylum arrivals, their policy levers may be less effective than political rhetoric suggests. A more evidence-based approach might focus on addressing the factors within government control while acknowledging the limitations of policy in shaping destination choice. This would include ensuring fair and efficient decision-making and working with other European countries to address conditions that act as ‘push factors’ from transit countries like France. Simply making conditions harsher in the UK the hope it will deter arrivals appears, based on the evidence, unlikely to achieve the desired effect.

By Catherine Barnard, Senior Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe & Professor of EU Law and Employment Law, University of Cambridge, Fiona Costello, Assistant Professor, University of Birmingham and Ali Ahmadi, Research Associate, University of Cambridge and PhD student at Anglia Ruskin University.

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