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Lies, damn lies, and statistics

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Lies, damn lies, and statistics

This morning’s Times reports that Labour’s much-vaunted reduction in NHS waiting times might not be all its been cracked up to be: “[A]n analysis of official NHS statistics by The Times reveals that this drop was achieved only by removing thousands of patients from the waiting list through a process known as “validation”. It goes on:

“In November, the month that Starmer was referring to, 346,300 were removed from NHS waiting lists, 82,000 more than the month before, which accounted for almost the entire claimed drop in the waiting list. At the same time, NHS data shows that in November hospitals actually carried out about 10 per cent fewer operations and appointments than they did in October, suggesting that fewer people were being treated.”

It seems so obvious in retrospect, doesn’t it? If the thing everyone talks about is the number of people waiting for treatment, rather than the volume of treatment performed, then any institution looking for a quick apparent win (and the British Government is, these days, always such an institution) will be sorely tempted to focus on finding ways to get the lists down by shunting people off them.

That might not always be a bad thing, of course; it rather depends on the manner of their leaving. One of the examples given of patients removed from waiting lists via the NHS ‘validation’ process are those for whom “other options such as physiotherapy might be more beneficial”, and provided that really is the case the identification of such patients is no bad thing.

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But another group of patients is those who have died, which seems a deeply counterproductive thing to be adding to waiting list reductions (at least if one expects a pat on the back for them). 

Nor can it be overlooked that central government has been paying NHS trusts to conduct these exercises:

“Between April and September last year NHS England paid hospital trusts a total of £18,818,566 for validation exercises, with the organisation saying that trusts were paid about £33 for each patient removed from the list. This would mean that over the six-month period more than half a million patients were removed through the “validation” process.”

Now I don’t think that this would be structured so crassly as to actually pay for removals, the perverse incentive would be too obvious. But the framework in which these exercises are conducted would be obvious enough to all concerned.

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It’s also worth noting that apparently Rishi Sunak refused to pay for validation schemes because NHS trusts ought to have been doing them anyway, and this also seems an unarguable point, not merely on moral grounds but because if paying consultants to trawl patient lists to find people who didn’t need treatment actually produced serious savings – and it ought to, as presumably few of those patients needed only £33 of care – then surely trusts have a strong incentive to be doing them on their own initiative? Why weren’t they?

Overall, the whole story feels like a very mild example of the sort of the sort of vignette found in Red Plenty, an excellent book which provides a fictionalised look at the experience of the Soviet economy: deliberately breaking a machine so you could get a new one in order to hit your production targets, only to be sent another of the old one because it’s heavier and the machine factory’s targets are set by weight, etc.

It just isn’t easy to put together a good incentive structure for an organisation run on the basis the NHS is. Without the profit motive, there is little incentive to chase efficiency, whilst its near-monopoly status as healthcare provider leaves little need to invest much in customer service. Government is thus forced to try and impose these incentives externally, and that’s very tricky.

Because what is the alternative to measuring waiting lists? The obvious one which leaps out, and was the first thought in my head after finishing this story, was measuring actual work – operations and appointments. But that simply creates a different perverse incentive structure, and we would probably end up with stories about patients being funnelled towards frivolous treatments for the sake of the statistics.

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That is, after all, exactly what happened in education under New Labour. Ministers took the superficially sensible step of measuring schools by the grades they produced, but then grossly bungled the relative weight given to a GCSE or A Level compared to various vocational qualifications a pupil could get in a couple of weeks. The result, inevitably, was some schools which produced excellent paper results by funnelling pupils towards near-worthless qualifications.

Obviously that system could have been designed better, and the same might be true of an output-based metric for the NHS. But over any significant span of time, a bureaucracy is always going to get better at gaming a scrutiny regime than an ever-rotating cast of ministers is going to get at designing and enforcing it.

And the price for that will ultimately be paid by the politicians, as the Starmer Government will learn. Public dissatisfaction with the NHS is being driven by personal experience of it. Individual voters may or may not be impressed by announcements about reduced waiting times, but it will only translate into sustained political benefit if those announcements end up tallying with an improved experience of actually using the service.

If not – and especially if boasts about reduced lists turn out to have coincided with reduced levels of care – such boasts will come rightly to be held in the same contempt as were Soviet tractor statistics. And even the Communist Party of the Soviet Union didn’t try that sort of thing in a system where people could actually vote them out.

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Tel Aviv gets a taste of its own medicine

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Tel Aviv gets a taste of its own medicine

In maybe the only good news of the year so far, Iranian ballistic missiles have struck both Tel Aviv – including Mossad HQ – causing major damage.

Of course, white Jewish Israelis will be running to their cosy little bomb shelters. Meanwhile, as we have seen previously, the illegal settlers exclude minorities.

And Netanyahu? The dickhead responsible for the chaos across the entirety of the Middle East flew out of Tel Aviv quicker than Donald Trump can post to Truth Social when new Epstein files drop.

IsNOTrael is getting a taste of its own medicine.

And I’m guessing all media broadcasts will be banned from Israel in 3, 2, 1…

Israel is finally getting an iota of what it deserves for murdering thousands of Palestinians.

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Netanyahu and Trump bomb civilian areas, killing children in the process, and then run, hide or party. They give zero fucks about the lives they are taking.

Anyone who has chosen to stay in Israel after watching Netanyahu and his terrorist government wage war on Palestinians for the last two and a half years needs to give their head a shake. And quite frankly, I have zero sympathy that they now have bombs falling on them.

Featured image via the Canary 

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Defendant claims Zahwa Mukhtar’s death was “an accident”

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Hearing aid found at scene of Zahwa Mukhtar murder

The man on trial for the murder of 27-year-old Zahwa Mukhtar expressed his remorse that none of the six occupants of the car adequately checked she was conscious.

“She was still breathing”

During his final day giving evidence, Duane Owusu was quizzed on his defence statement, probed on how the car they’d been travelling in circled back twice towards Zahwa. The first time was within minutes of her receiving an “open-handed shove” by Owusu.

Another witness in the car said she was still breathing, but he didn’t look for himself. On Friday, the 36-year-old defendant said:

I didn’t even believe she was seriously injured, that’s honestly the truth. I didn’t think I caused a serious injury […] Nobody got out the car to check, that’s what I regret.

The defence statement continued:

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The group then drove off unaware that [Zahwa] had sustained a life-threatening injury but shortly afterwards decided to return. Before they could do so the vehicle was stopped by police.

The stop, which was on suspicion of drugs, lasted about 50 minutes, during which time Owusu told jurors he thought Zahwa might appear and tell them herself what had happened.

Steering clear

He didn’t want to drive back to Zahwa, who was outside a care home in Chadwell Heath Lane, due to repeated altercations between her and two other women in the car, Paige Allen and Abigail Winter. Owusu believed returning would have risked reigniting those arguments if she re-entered the car, he told the court.

When Owusu learned Zahwa still hadn’t moved, he agreed with others to return to check on her. On route, he asked to be let out of the car, but the driver refused.

The defendant said:

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I agreed, let’s go back, but as he’s done the u-turn, I just didn’t want to be involved with the fighting so I was going to remove myself from the whole group.

Henrietta Paget KC, prosecuting, suggested Owusu wanted to put as much distance as possible between himself and “the scene”.

“No,” he began.

The whole night I was preventing them from fighting, stopping the fights..I was just tired…I was basically being a peacemaker. I felt like the whole night I was just being a babysitter for people, which I don’t mind doing, but I’d just had enough of the fighting.

Defendant maintains his innocence

Evidence of altercations between all three women was mentioned in court, including one of Owusu’s conversations and reference to a cut on Paige’s nose from 16 August, before Zahwa’s death.

Before being struck in the neck, the prosecution’s case is that two kicks were aimed towards the finance assistant’s face.

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Referring again to Owusu’s defence statement, Ms Paget read:

The kicking motions were not intended as strikes but were made to create distance and to move the deceased away from the vehicle as he was concerned that she would attempt to re-enter the car or place herself at risk.

He did not intend to, and did not, make contact with her and disengaged once she was clear and another female intervened.

She ask asked:

What does it mean, you didn’t mean to make contact with her?

Owusu replied that he didn’t mean to harm or hurt Zahwa.

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On the advice of his legal team, Owusu answered ‘no comment’ to questions during his police interview and was arrested before he’d had a chance to hand himself in, he said.

Everything that happened was a total accident. I’m traumatised talking about that and I’m deeply sorry. That wasn’t how the night was supposed to go.

Owusu, of Althorne Way, Dagenham, denies murder and manslaughter.

The verdict is expected next week at the Old Bailey.

Featured image via the Canary

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Iran must ‘return to negotiating table’ according to Starmer

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Iran must 'return to negotiating table' according to Starmer

UK PM Keir Starmer has done his usual ‘mendacious limp dishrag’ performance in response to the new US/Israel attacks on Iran. Iran has hit US bases and Israeli facilities in retaliation.

Starmer has announced that Iran should “return to the negotiating table”. As political commentator Philip Proudfoot pointed out, that’s exactly where it was when the US and Israel attacked its people:

Number 10 has denied that the UK participated in the attack on Iran. This is a lie. Flight tracking in recent weeks has shown a string of US military aircraft leaving the US en route to the area around Iran or using UK airspace to get there:

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The US-Israel attacks on Iran are unprovoked and criminal — and carried out while Iran was negotiating against US-Israel demands that both coloniser powers knew were impossible. This mirrors Israel’s murder of Qatari bystanders while trying to assassinate Hamas’s ceasefire negotiating team — likewise assisted by the UK.

In November 2025, Sky News reported:

A small number of British military personnel – single digits – are understood to be deployed on USS Gerald R Ford, a giant US aircraft carrier, and other warships that form part of the carrier strike group that has been sent towards Venezuela.

Our own Joe Glenton pointed out:

Either UK personnel are aboard the US warships being positioned to threaten – and possibly attack – Iran or they are not. Self-evidently, there is a public interest in knowing if this is the case.

Now, Netanyahu claims the attack is for the good of the Iranian people. This is what he said of the Syrian people when Israel, after assisting terrorists take over that country, turned and mass-bombed them and stole Syrian territory as soon as the government had fallen.

War criminals in Tel Aviv and the White House and a snivelling little Renfield in Number 10 assisting and enabling them in return for scraps and beetles.

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Iran hits US 5th fleet in Bahrain as Yemen joins retaliatory strikes

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Iran hits US 5th fleet in Bahrain as Yemen joins retaliatory strikes

Iran has struck the US Navy’s 5th Fleet HQ in Bahrain and other US bases in the region this morning, 28 February 2026, in retaliation for unprovoked US and Israeli attacks on the country. US bombs struck a girls’ school in southern Iran, murdering at least 40 children and teachers:

Bahrain confirmed the strikes:

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Heavy smoke rising from the targeted base in Bahrain:

 

Israel claims the attacks are for the sake of the people of Iran. We’ve heard that before.

Yemen has also attacked US vessels in the region in solidarity with Tehran:

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Israel murders 40 children at Iranian elementary school

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Israel murders 40 children at Iranian elementary school

Israel has bombed a girls’ elementary school in Iran, murdering at least 40 children.

An Israeli air strike hit Shajareh Tayyebeh school in Minab city in the Hormozgan province of southern Iran.

The victims were between seven and 12 years old.

Middle East Eye has reported that there were at least 170 female students in the school at the time of the attack. Reports suggest that at least 45 people have also been wounded.

Of course, Israel was not content with the thousands of children it has murdered in Palestine.

What do you get when you mix American weapons and Israelis?

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Murdered children.

Israel — deliberate attacks

Israel has not even attempted to hide the fact that it is targeting civilian areas. Are they going to claim there was a Hamas compound in an Iranian elementary school full of little girls?

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Why should innocent children die for the sake of Donald Trump and Netanyahu’s regime change bullshit?

Let’s not forget that Israel has extremely high-tech weaponry. When it wants to, it can target exact apartments or bedrooms with precision.

So make no mistakes, this attack on an elementary school was deliberate.

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They have done it before, and there is, unfortunately, no doubt they will do it again.

So much for the US wanting to ‘liberate‘ Iran.

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Trump tells Iran ‘help is on the way’ and then bombs a school. Trump’s ‘major combat operations‘ are literally just an extension of Israel’s murderous rampage in the Middle East.

From Palestine to Iran to Lebanon and to Syria, Israel has shown time and time again that it will not stop. It literally gets off on murdering brown children. But why would it stop when it has the backing of the US and so many other Western countries? Until the West grows a pair and takes a stand, nothing will change, and thousands more innocent children will end up dead because of Israel’s terrorism.

Feature image via FRANCE 24 English/ YouTube

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European Greens welcome victory which ‘makes hope normal again’

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European Greens welcome victory which 'makes hope normal again'

The European Green Party has welcomed Hannah Spencer’s victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election. Spencer’s dominant win came against a backdrop of ludicrous smears from Labour and led to racist dogwhistles from Reform.

Reacting to the victory, European Green Party co-chair Vula Tsetsi said:

Voters in the Manchester constituency of Gorton and Denton have heard Zack Polanski and the Green Party’s call to ‘make hope normal again’ and they have made it reality.

This victory brings the number of Green Members of Parliament in the UK to five, up from the historic high of four after the last general election. Together with their skyrocketing membership this confirms the Greens as a solid and growing progressive force in the UK.

We warmly congratulate Hannah Spencer and the Green Party of England and Wales for their enthusiastic, hopeful and locally rooted campaign. People are looking for affordable housing, clean air, and properly funded public services to improve their everyday lives.

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Co-chair Ciarán Cuffe added:

Greens are demonstrating that the green transition can lower energy bills, create quality jobs and strengthen local communities.

While right-wing and far-right parties, including Reform UK, continue to try to divide communities across Europe, this result proves that fear is not the only force shaping politics.

The Green Party of England and Wales, a full member of the European Green Party, has beaten Reform and Labour by offering credible solutions on affordability, housing and investment in public services. This makes us very hopeful for the upcoming UK local elections in May.

The Greens have seen significant local wins across Europe, that gave the Greens the mayoral leadership in five capitals. These include Amsterdam (the Netherlands), Copenhagen (Denmark), Budapest (Hungary), Riga (Latvia) and Zagreb (Croatia).

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Gorton and Denton result a rejection of genocide support

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Gorton and Denton result a rejection of genocide support

Inequality economist Faiza Shaheen has summed up why people chose hope in the Gorton and Denton by-election. The Green’s Hannah Spencer won by a mile in the Manchester constituency by-election.

“Represent” the people

On social media, Shaheen said:

Greens came from nowhere to win in one of the safest Labour seats in the country. This is evidence that people want politicians that represent them, not the billionaires and city lobbyists

As part of a wide-reaching purge of progressives (that may have now backfired given the rise of the Greens), Keir Starmer arbitrarily blocked Shaheen from standing as a Labour candidate in the 2024 election. That’s despite her performance against Conservative Iain Duncan Smith in the Chingford and Woodford Green constituency in 2019. She came within around 1,000 votes from unseating him.

The Autonomy Institute made the corruption around corporate influence clear with its research last year. 373 companies have made over £60 billion from public contracts following their political donations in “recent years”.

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As Shaheen points out, the public are sick of it and the result in Gorton and Denton reflects that. The Greens won a landslide victory in what appeared to be a close race. The party received 14,980 votes to Reform’s 10,578.

‘Muslims would forget’

Economist and politician Shaheen continued with her reasons for the Green win:

Labour’s complicity in a genocide has hurt them (David Lammy once told me that Muslims would forget!); and that people can and will defeat the divisive politics of Reform. Thank you Hannah Spencer, Zack Polanski and the Green Party 

Despite the ceasefire, people aren’t forgetting the indiscriminate bombardment of Palestinian people. Labour was in a position to help stop the onslaught and instead has done the opposite.

As Shaheen says, the Greens are showing that a re-balancing of the economy away from billionaires and elites.

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ICE maneuvered into releasing detainee via Mayor Mamdani

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ICE maneuvered into releasing detainee via Mayor Mamdani

New York mayor Zohran Mamdani apparently helped to encourage US president Donald Trump and his paramilitary militia, the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) unit, to release a Columbia student with over 100,000 Instagram followers. Tens of thousands more people whom immigration authorities have unfairly mistreated, however, haven’t had such luck.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) had accused Elmina Aghayeva of having a student visa termination due to a ‘failure to attend class’ back in 2016. ICE agents reportedly impersonated police officers to gain access to the Columbia University dorm where they detained Aghayeva.

Many politicians chimed in to criticise her dodgy detention. And it seems Mamdani’s plea to Trump may have made an impact.

However, few of the people ICE has detained during Trump’s second term in office have the same kind of profile Aghayeva does.

What about justice for everyone else?

The Trump regime regularly refers to the people ICE detains as dangerous or violent criminals – supposedly the “worst of the worst“. But as CBS News has reported, a DHS document shows less than 14% of around 400,000 people whom ICE arrested in the last year actually had “charges or convictions for violent criminal offenses”.

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ICE’s unaccountable, aggressive behaviour has resulted in numerous deaths. And about 40% of all the people it has arrested “did not have any criminal record at all“, apart from questions relating to their permission to stay in the US. Civil proceedings have usually addressed such violations historically.

This means that ICE is mistreating tens of thousands of people who are definitely not ‘the worst of the worst’, and getting away with it.

Everyone deserves fair treatment from authorities – whether they’re influencers or not. But that doesn’t seem to be the system that currently reigns in the US under Donald Trump. And even politicians don’t seem to make as much noise when ICE detains people who don’t have such a prominent profile.

Featured image via the Canary

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Sombr Confuses Brit Awards Viewers With Stage Invasion Fake-Out

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Sombr Confuses Brit Awards Viewers With Stage Invasion Fake-Out

After a jam-packed night of amazing performances and surprise guests, Sombr had a unique way of grabbing Brit Awards viewers’ attention during this year’s ceremony.

On Saturday evening, the Grammy-nominated singer-songwriter was the penultimate performer at the Brits, kicking things off with a rendition of his hit Undressed.

Halfway through the performance, viewers were shocked when there appeared to be a scuffle between Sombr and an apparent stage invader, who pushed him from the podium he’d been singing on.

At that point, the man in question ripped down a gold shimmer curtain, as Sombr launched into the second of his two songs, Back To Friends.

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Many subsequently rushed to social media to check what had actually transpired, and see whether or not the stage invasion was genuine.

However, it’s been pointed out that the supposed stage invader was wearing a t-shirt, emblazoned with the message “Sombr is a homewrecker”, in a nod to the American performer’s upcoming single of the same name.

While Rosé and Bruno Mars’ collaboration Apt. picked up the latter award, the former went to Rosalía, beating stiff competition from the likes of Lady Gaga, Taylor Swift, Doechii, Chappell Roan, Sabrina Carpenter and Bad Bunny.

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US strikes on Iran are a stress test for regional alliances

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US strikes on Iran are a stress test for regional alliances

The US and Israel’s unprovoked attack on Iran has led to retaliatory strikes across the Arabian Gulf. The Gulf Cooperation Council states (GCC) – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE – are caught in a nexus partially of their own making as imperial ties threaten to pull the region apart.

Arguably, the right to self-defence, enshrined in international law is one thing. However the use of excessive force, risks isolating Iran and undermining its cause.

Strike on Iran means gloves are off

Unlike the largely contained and bruising 12-day war in 2025, this time Iran’s gloves are off. Responding to US strikes, its government launched attacks on Arab Gulf countries hosting US assets. So far, these states—many of which Iran claims are ‘allies’ — are resisting being pulled into the ring of fire. However, the flames of war are fanning out in their direction.

Dubai International Airport, terminal three to be precise, suffered an Iranian drone attack. The government has issued an emergency alert to all civilians, urging them to ‘seek immediate shelter.’ Thousands of passengers, whose flights were cancelled, remain stranded in the airport. The airport is now thrust into the theatre of war:

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The path of mutual destruction

Earlier today, an Iranian missile targeted the headquarters of the US Navy’s 5th Fleet in Bahrain. Another missile struck Dubai’s Fairmont Hotel located in the upscale Palm Jumeirah, which caught fire. Kuwait’s International Airport was targeted by a drone strike, grounding both departures and arrivals until further notice. Meanwhile, in Jordan, Iranian missiles were intercepted. Similarly, in Iraq, drones targeting the US consulate and the International Airport were also shot down.

 

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The stress test of regime durability

Tehran’s leadership has maintained its innocence, with officials and aligned commentators justifying these actions through the logic of self-defense — like a defiant child caught with its hand in the candy jar. Sacrificing its allies to save itself is a dangerous tango. It is one that may not end US strikes. In other words, it could be cutting off its nose to spite its face.

If self-defense — both as rationale and military strategy — is reliant on the spread of terror and military tactics that risk civilian lives, Iran is purposely dragging the region into quicksand—escalation by de-escalation, promoting the proliferation of war. The millions of Arabs who have survived war and established roots in the Gulf — not just recently, but over decades—are unlikely to agree. And can you blame them?

In an interview with NBC News, Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Aragchi, said

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Nobody has any record of any aggression by us against our neighbours in the past 200 years.

The irony is clearly lost on him.

No appetite for war

However, the slew of stern statements issued by these neighbours, reeling from intense retaliatory strikes and the resulting state of emergency, suggests that Aragchi is leading audiences astray. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, among others, have condemned the barrage of attacks as an attack on their sovereignty. The message is clear – Arab countries will not bow to Iran’s pressure campaign.

Even across Lebanon and Iraq, Iran’s proxies, despite condemning Trump’s unprovoked strikes, are yet to mobilise their personnel. They appear to be keeping a low profile, fearful, it may seem, of possible blowback, with their own survival in mind.

With few options for pushback, Iran is swinging the bat, and excusing its actions as targeting “legitimate targets on military sites”. The videos circling on social media tell a different story.

Iran won’t relent until the “enemy” is defeated – it officials have repeatedly warned. But at what cost? America is equally misguided if it thinks that leadership decapitation and military aggression will result in a ‘happy ever after’. Iraq is a case in point.

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A sustained war, feared by all — mostly civilian populations who have already survived war once, twice, or thrice, in some cases – is becoming an increasingly likely, though terrifying prospect. It will test regime durability irrespective of the regional earthquake it will set in motion, and place the Middle East on a warpath.

Featured image via the Canary

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