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Predictive policing from any government will be a disaster

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Predictive policing from any government will be a disaster

On 12 February, the Ministry of Justice announced plans to use predictive policing to overhaul the youth justice system. Tucked away in the 25-page document was a proposal to use “machine learning and advanced analytics” to “support early, appropriate intervention” in youth crime.

Whilst the white paper was vague on the particulars, only promising further news in the spring, a Times article went into greater detail on the plans. Beneath an inflammatory headline promising machines that would predict “the criminals of the future”, the column explained that:

Artificial intelligence (AI) could be used to predict the criminals of the future under government plans to identify children who need targeted interventions to stop them falling into a life of crime. […]

Academic research has found patterns can emerge from data collected by health visitors checking on newborn babies, although it has not been decided whether the government programme would go back so far to determine whether someone was at risk.

Now, it would be easy here to point out that this pre-crime policing is horrifyingly dystopian. It sounds like a crude mashup of phrenological skull-measuring and Minority Report. 

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And that’s true, it is horrifyingly dystopian. But it’s also a present reality that racialised individuals in the UK have been subject to for decades.

Predictive policing and ‘criminals of the future’

Regarding the AI plans, a government source stated that:

We are looking at how we can better use AI and machine learning to essentially predict the criminals of the future, but to do so ethically and morally. It’s about ensuring the data from the NHS, social services, police, Department for Work and Pensions and education is used effectively, and then using AI so you can go above and beyond what we can currently do.

This is going to be pretty transformative on how we put money and resources into prevention. We keep getting the same profiles of criminals in the justice system but we’re intervening far too late.

This isn’t about criminalising people but making sure the alarms in the system are better understood and data and AI modelling can do that much better.

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Minister for youth justice Jake Richards explained further:

I’m determined to harness the power of artificial intelligence and machine learning to gain better insights into the root causes of crime. This will allow us to focus on the earliest of interventions for individuals and families, offering better outcomes for children and keeping our communities safer.

But we must hold and use this personal data carefully, and that’s why I’ve commissioned this specialist expert committee to look at the efficacy of this work, but also the ethical and legal consequences.

The Times goes on to state that data show that neurodivergent, poor, and ethnic minority kids are more likely to commit crimes. Four in every five children in youth detention are neurodivergent. Before they’re even 18, 33% of kids with a care background receive a police caution.

The article states all of this that neutral tone that only the discerning bigot’s newspaper of choice can manage. And, of course, it’s a deeply misleading abuse of the truth.

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Biases past and biases future

In reality, these marginalized kids are the ones who are more likely to be picked up by police, cautioned, or prosecuted. Police profile their arrestees – they have a (racist, discriminatory) idea of who a criminal is, and then police people accordingly. And surprise surprise, the people treated as criminals keep getting arrested.

That’s a world away from being “more likely to commit crime”.

Whilst AI decision-making is sometimes perceived as unbiased and emotionless, this couldn’t be further from the truth. Rather, it simply hides the – very human – biases in its training dataset behind a veneer of cold ‘fairness’.

In her report on AI biases in policing, the UN’s Ashwini K.P. – special rapporteur on contemporary forms of racism – specifically called out predictive policing. Back in 2024, Ashwini explained that:

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Predictive policing can exacerbate the historical over policing of communities along racial and ethnic lines. Because law enforcement officials have historically focused their attention on such neighbourhoods, members of communities in those neighbourhoods are overrepresented in police records. This, in turn, has an impact on where algorithms predict that future crime will occur, leading to increased police deployment in the areas in question. […]

When officers in overpoliced neighbourhoods record new offences, a feedback loop is created, whereby the algorithm generates increasingly biased predictions targeting these neighbourhoods. In short, bias from the past leads to bias in the future.

Pre-crime criminalisation

However, as I mentioned earlier, this feedback loop isn’t a problem specific to AI itself. Rather, it’s inherent to the very idea of pre-crime policing – and it’s an oppression that racialised individuals in the UK have been dealing with for decades.

Take, for example, the Met Police’s ‘Operation Trident’ of the 1990s. This sought to prevent gang-related violence in London, and instead resulted in the mass racial profiling of Black youth. An Amnesty International report on Trident’s ‘Gangs Matrix’ database stated that:

The type of data collection that underpins the Gangs Matrix focuses law enforcement efforts disproportionately on black boys and young men. It erodes their right to privacy based on what may be nothing more than their associates in the area they grow up and how they express their subculture in music videos and social media posts. Officials in borough Gangs Units monitor the social media pages and online interactions of people they consider to be ‘at risk’ of gang involvement, interfering with the privacy of a much larger group of people than those involved in any kind of wrongdoing.

Later, in 2003, the UK government created the Prevent counter-terrorism strategy. Ostensibly, it seeks to prevent people from being radicalised into extremist ideologies. In reality, it disproportionately targets Muslims – including Muslim children – for surveillance and hostile treatment as a dangerous ‘other’.

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Then, in 2023, the Shawcross Review of Prevent baselessly claimed that the strategy should target Muslims to an even greater degree, rather than far-right extremism. In itself, this was a perfect microcosm of bias-confirmation in action. At the time, the Canary’s Maryam Jameela wrote that:

Pre-crime strategies like Prevent presume full agency and power at all times, for all Muslims. In order for such a thing to happen, there needs to be a cultural belief that Muslims are figures of suspicion because they always hold the potential to be terrorists. Underpinning this presumption is that Islam itself harbours something sinister. Repeated governments have, over the years, created a culture of criminalisation that only views Muslims as being in a constant state of pre-crime.

Now, and for all Jake Richards’ protestations that his AI plans will use data ethically to create better outcomes for children, it certainly sounds like more of the same discriminatory dross. We’ve seen already what these people’s ethics and care look like.

There is no way to predict criminality that isn’t driven by our previous biases – machine learning or not. All that this ‘new’ strategy can do is push yet more marginalised youth into the no-man’s-land of pre-criminality. And all the while, vulnerable kids will be shown directly that their every move was always already under scrutiny.

Featured image via the Canary

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Where is the fury over the plot to massacre Manchester Jews?

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Where is the fury over the plot to massacre Manchester Jews?

So that’s it, is it? The fascistic plot to massacre Manchester Jews just fades from the headlines? A conspiracy to slaughter hundreds of Jews like dogs in the street becomes yesterday’s news, as if it were celebrity tittle-tattle or another lame Labour scandal? It’s just 72 hours since two men were sentenced for planning what would have been one of the worst racist atrocities in the history of these isles, and already we’ve moved on. No reckoning, no soul-searching, no anger. A Nazi-level scheme to gun down Jews is mercifully thwarted and the response is a collective ‘Meh’.

The Manchester plot ought to have been a nation-changing event. It was apocalyptic in its intent, historic in its sheer determination to destroy any future for Jews on this island. The conspirators were Walid Saadaoui, 38, and Amar Hussein, 52. Their Jewphobic plot was well advanced. They had purchased assault rifles, handguns and a thousand rounds of ammunition. Their black plan was to ‘kill as many members of the Jewish community as they could’. ISIS was their inspiration, hundreds of dead Jews was their dream.

Had their plot not been uncovered by intrepid police officers, the consequences would have been cataclysmic. They intended to go to a march of Jews in Manchester and fire indiscriminately into the crowd. They would then go to Cheetham Hill, the heart of Jewish Manchester, and gun down Jews as they left their schools, nurseries, shuls and businesses. It is not Godwin’s Law to say you have to go back to the demented pogroms of 1930s Europe to find a scheme as vile as this one. As the Manchester police said, it would have ‘ranked right up there’ with the worst atrocities the modern world has seen.

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It was thanks to the intervention of an undercover cop, codename ‘Farouk’, that the plot was thwarted. The men were arrested in May 2024 as they went to collect their deadly munitions. They were found guilty in December 2025 of preparing acts of terrorism. They were sentenced last Friday. Saadaoui received life with a minimum term of 37 years. Hussein received life with a minimum of 26 years. Saadaoui’s brother was also locked up, for six years, for failing to disclose the plot to police.

It’s a great outcome. Men who were motored by a ‘visceral dislike’ of Jews taken off our streets. Islamo-fascists who harboured a ‘deep-seated hatred’ for the Jewish people put in the clink where they belong. But that’s not the end of it, surely? There needs to be more, right? Where’s the fury? Where’s the national self-reflection? Where’s that burning question that ought to push aside every other concern in the UK right now – namely, how did 21st-century Britain come to harbour such fascist-like animus, such hell-bent Islamists consumed by blind loathing for Jews, Britain and the West itself?

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I have found the public response to this case dispiriting in the extreme. Keir Starmer issued a perfunctory tweet in response to the sentencing. ‘Good’, he said, this was a ‘horrifying case’. Then he went right back to ranting about Sir Jim Ratcliffe and his apparently scandalous claim that Britain has been ‘colonised’ by immigrants. Let this be the political epithet of this thin-gruel technocrat we have the misfortune to be ruled by – in the week when two men were jailed for planning a barbarous assault on Jews, he busied himself with pompous homilies about the ‘bigotry’ of a billionaire. A word seemed to shake our PM’s moral conscience more than a plot to slay Jews.

He wasn’t alone. All last week the media elites were frothing about Sir Jim. His use of that C-word is proof the ‘far right’ is surging, they squealed. It’s proof of the rise of ‘race-baiting bigotry’. These are Kafkaesque levels of moral blindness. The true bigotry of murderous Islamists is overlooked in favour of obsessing over a ‘misspeaking’ rich bloke. The sentencing of two fascistic haters of our Jewish compatriots barely pricks the hollow hearts of the turbo-smug opinion-forming classes, as instead they wring their manicured hands over a word in an interview. Future historians will study this. They will marvel, in horror, at this era in which more purple prose was spaffed on a football boss who’s worried about mass immigration than on two ISIS devotees who almost managed to massacre Jews.

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Then there’s the left. ‘Fascist!’, these people cry at everyone from the mums in pink tracksuits who protest outside migrant hotels to those northern communities that are planning to vote for Reform UK. Yet when two men are jailed for an advanced plot to carry out the bloodiest of pogroms, they go schtum. For the first time ever the word ‘fascist’ clogs in their throats. We need a franker verison of that Martin Niemöller poem to describe such rank cowardice and snivelling silence in the face of true racism: ‘When they came for the Jews, I said fuck all.’

We need a reckoning with this culture of chilling indifference to Islamo-fascism. With the failure of our self-styled moral leaders to speak clearly about the surging poison of anti-Semitism. Last year there were 3,700 anti-Semitic hate incidents in the UK, the second-highest annual total ever. Sickeningly, 80 of those incidents were recorded in the 48 hours after the terrorist assault on the Heaton Park Synagogue, also in Manchester, on Yom Kippur in October, when two Jews were killed. Some of those incidents involved ‘face-to-face taunting’ of Jews and ‘celebration’ of the Heaton Park attack. It’s the 21st century and people are responding to the murder of Jews by jeering at Jews. Where are the anti-racists? Their silence indicts them in ways they cannot fathom.

To watch the clip of Amar Hussein in his police interview coldly saying ‘Yes’ when asked if he supports ISIS is to look into the face of evil. His arms crossed, his demeanour arrogant, he announces with nauseating pride his allegiance to the sworn enemies of Western civilisation. The questions pile up. Hussein is from Kuwait and Saadaoui is from Tunisia – what were they doing here? Were they emboldened in their Jew hate by the Israelophobic mania that swept Britain after 7 October 2023? It is undeniable now: our broken immigration system, our failure to tame the anti-Semitism of the post-7 October moment and officialdom’s dread of calling out Islamism for fear of being called ‘Islamophobic’ – these craven trends have mingled to create fertile territory for the violent rebirth of the world’s oldest racism.

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There are 40,000 suspected jihadists on Britain’s terror watchlist. Hundreds of young men from anti-Semitic cultures arrive illegally on our shores every week. Venomous hatred for the world’s only Jewish nation has become the moral glue of the chattering classes. Anti-Semitic attacks are spiking. Jews are being murdered, or mercifully saved from murder. What signal does it send to Jew-haters when we fail as a society to speak out about these horrors? The elites’ yellow-bellied nonchalance on the Islamist threat doesn’t only betray Britain’s Jews – it also emboldens those who loathe them.

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Palantir face question of AI in military ops

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Palantir face question of AI in military ops

The Pentagon deployed AI technology linked to Palantir to kidnap Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. The AI program concerned, Claude, is integral to Palantir systems used by the US military. The settler-colonial state of Israel is Claude’s biggest per capita user.

Tech firm Anthropic developed the program. Claude is used within Palantir systems wielded by the Pentagon. Sources told the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on 15 February the use of AI in the 3 January raid showed how:

AI models are gaining traction in the Pentagon.

But there is a problem. Anthropic has strict rules on military usage:

Anthropic’s usage guidelines prohibit Claude from being used to facilitate violence, develop weapons or conduct surveillance.

The sources said:

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The deployment of Claude occurred through Anthropic’s partnership with data company Palantir Technologies, whose tools are commonly used by the Defense Department and federal law enforcement.

Anthropic’s programs can be used:

for everything from summarizing documents to controlling autonomous drones.

But could Anthropic’s ‘ethics guidelines’ have been breached?

Questions are being asked of Palantir

Questions were asked within the firm after the Caracas raid:

Following the raid, an employee at Anthropic asked a counterpart at Palantir how Claude was used in the operation, according to people familiar with the matter.

An Anthropic spokesperson said:

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We cannot comment on whether Claude, or any other AI model, was used for any specific operation, classified or otherwise.

They added:

Any use of Claude—whether in the private sector or across government—is required to comply with our Usage Policies, which govern how Claude can be deployed. We work closely with our partners to ensure compliance.

The Open Tools tech website said Claude is a chatbot:

Claude, a chatbot developed by Anthropic, has seen diverse adoption patterns across the globe, with notable variances based on national economic statuses and technological infrastructure.

Open Tools reported that Israel in the highest per capita user of the program:

The Anthropic AI Usage Index (AUI) places Israel at the top of the leaderboard for Claude usage per capita, signifying not just a quantitative but qualitative edge in how AI is utilized across sectors in the country.

The WSJ reported Anthropic’s strict rules on ‘defence’ use might see the Pentagon divest. Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the US military’s relationship with Anthropic was “under review”:

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Our nation requires that our partners be willing to help our warfighters win in any fight.

Sources told WSJ the guidelines might endanger the $200mn contract awarded in summer 2025. Anthropic Chief Executive Dario Amodei has:

 publicly expressed concern about AI’s use in autonomous lethal operations and domestic surveillance.

These are the “two major sticking points”

Defence secretary Pete Hegseth has said the US doesn’t want to use:

AI models that won’t allow you to fight wars.

Donald Trump’s shadow war in Latin America isn’t over, despite attention moving elsewhere after the 3 January Caracas raid.

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Drones, raids and Israel

Nicolas Maduro is in a New York jail. Vice-president Delcy Rodriguez is running Venezuela in his absence. Venezuela’s left-wing government is still in power – if only in theory. Venezuela is shipping oil to Israel, for example.

The US was still hitting ‘narco’ boats in the Caribbean as of 13 February:

The US boarded another tanker loaded with Venezuela oil on 15 February. This time in the Indian Ocean:

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The vessel tried to defy President Trump’s quarantine —hoping to slip away. We tracked it from the Caribbean to the Indian Ocean, closed the distance, and shut it down. No other nation has the reach, endurance, or will to do this.

The US hasn’t finished its imperial interference in Latin American. The new Venezuelan leader is more pliable, but US piracy and drone strikes are still underway. The US has deeply embedded AI in its warfighting. Anthropic’s ethics might sink the Claude contract, but there are dozens of other AI firms ready to step in and take on lucrative military contracts.

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Emerald Fennell Defends Changes To Wuthering Heights Story In New Film

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Emerald Fennell

Emerald Fennell is speaking out about the changes she made to the story of Wuthering Heights as part of her new film.

The Oscar winner’s new adaptation of Emily Brontë’s gothic novel hit cinemas late last week, and while critical reception was initially mixed, fans of the original book have spent the past few days voicing their issues with changes that have been made in this latest iteration.

As is often the case with screen versions of Wuthering Heights, Emerald’s adaptation focusses solely on the first half of the book, but the Saltburn director made a string of other changes, too.

These included the full removal of Cathy’s brother Hindley and more explicitly villainising characters like Nelly and Linton, as well as the decision to make Heathcliff and Isabella’s relationship more consensually submissive than the coercion and abuse outlined in the novel.

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Oh, and there’s also a whole lot more sex in the movie, too.

Speaking to Entertainment Weekly, Emerald began by admitting that she started scripting her new film by seeing how much of Wuthering Heights she could remember just from memory, having first encountered the book as a teenager.

I think the things that I remembered were both real and not real,” she explained. “So there was a certain amount of wish fulfillment in there, and there were whole characters that I’d sort of forgotten or consolidated.”

As a result, the film is more inspired by her “response and interpretation to that book and to the feeling of it” than a faithful adaptation.

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“I think, really, I would do a mini series and encompass the whole thing over 10 hours, and it would be beautiful,” she added of the many changes made compared to the source material.

“But if you’re making a movie, and you’ve got to be fairly tight, you’ve got to make those kinds of hard decisions.”

Emerald Fennell

Of course, before the film was even in production, Emerald’s adaptation of Wuthering Heights faced backlash over her casting of Jacob Elordi as Heathcliff, a character who is heavily implied in the book to be a person of colour.

Responding last month to these “whitewashing” accusations, the two-time Bafta recipient said: “The thing is, everyone who loves this book has such a personal connection to it, and so, you can only ever kind of make the movie that you sort of imagined yourself when you read it.

“That’s the great thing about this movie is that it could be made every year and it would still be so moving and so interesting.”

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She previously claimed she was first inspired to cast Jacob as Heathcliff after noticing while working with him on Saltburn that he “looked exactly like the illustration of Heathcliff” on the first copy of Wuthering Heights that she read.

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Starmer still sucking up to Trump in Arctic aircraft carrier pledge

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Starmer still sucking up to Trump in Arctic aircraft carrier pledge

Keir Starmer has told the Munich Security Conference that he’ll send the navy’s aircraft carrier group to the Arctic. The move is meant to appease US president Donald Trump who recently threatened to annex Greenland. In his speech on 14 February Starmer said:

I can announce today that the UK will deploy our Carrier Strike Group to the North Atlantic and the High North this year led by HMS Prince of Wales, operating alongside the US, Canada and other NATO allies in a powerful show of our commitment to Euro-Atlantic security.

Starmer also said he would increase the number of Royal Marines in Norway, alongside other measures:

Doubling our deployment of British commandos in the Arctic. Taking control of NATO’s Atlantic and Northern Command in Norfolk, Virginia. And transforming our Royal Navy by striking the biggest warship deal in British history with Norway.

You can listen to the full speech here:

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Right on cue, defence minister Al Carns  – a former marine and rumoured coup candidate for Labour leadership – appeared 200 miles above the Arctic Circle:

It remains to be seen whether any of this will appease Donald Trump. So far in 2026, Trump has struck Venezuela, threatened various countries, and is amassing naval forces within striking distance of Iran.

Yet being a minion to US authority seems to be Starmer’s default response.

Starmer bowing to US

The US in turning inwards. In line with it’s 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS), the US focus in increasingly on the Western hemisphere. US secretary of state Marco Rubio told the conference Europe has to stand up for itself now:

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We want Europe to be strong.  We believe that Europe must survive, because the two great wars of the last century serve for us as history’s constant reminder that ultimately, our destiny is and will always be intertwined with yours, because we know because we know that the fate of Europe will never be irrelevant to our own.

He also lamented the imagined civilisational decay described in the NSS:

Controlling who and how many people enter our countries, this is not an expression of xenophobia.  It is not hate.  It is a fundamental act of national sovereignty… It is an urgent threat to the fabric of our societies and the survival of our civilization itself.

Trump appeared to back off annexing Greenland. Or rather he appeared to back off using force to do so. Speaking at the World Economic Forum (WEF) on 21 January, he said:

We probably won’t get anything unless I decide to use excessive strength and force, where we would be, frankly, unstoppable. But I won’t do that.

I don’t have to use force. I don’t want to use force. I won’t use force. All the United States is asking for is a place called Greenland.

Starmer can’t get a break at the moment. And, in fairness, it’s entirely his own fault. He is under fire at home over disgraced Labour grandee Peter Mandelson’s links to dead child rapist and power broker Jeffrey Epstein. He may not last much longer. Yet on what passes for a UK foreign policy – i.e., sucking up to Donald Trump – he has been remarkably consistent.

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Greater Manchester groups announce plans to oppose Britain First’s ‘March for Remigration’

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Greater Manchester groups announce plans to oppose Britain First’s ‘March for Remigration’

A coalition of Greater Manchester groups has announced a major campaign calling for opposition to Britain First’s upcoming ‘March for Remigration’ in the city.

The far-right fascist party, has previously announced its intention to host the march in Manchester city centre on 21 February 2026.

‘Resist Britain First’

Organisations from across Greater Manchester have launched a campaign, ‘Resist Britain First’, to oppose this march. It’s calling for people and groups across the country to stand together and oppose the march.

A spokespserson for Resist Britain First said:

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Britain First’s ‘March for Remigration’ is a racist dogwhistle calling for a white supremacist ethnic cleansing of the United Kingdom by the forced expulsion of non-white people.

Britain First’s previous march led to multiple recorded instances of racism, homophobia, and violence by attendees of the march.

We call on people across the UK to come to Manchester to resist this racism on our streets and show that you do not support this bigotry.

Britain First is led by Paul Golding and Ashlea Simon, both of whom have made horrific racist statements in the past.

Simon once stated that “English people can’t be black” as “English blood is white”. Meanwhile Golding, a former member of the National Front, was convicted for his vile harassment of a mosque. Golding has also previously been accused of sexually assaulting one of the attendees of his marches.

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Amongst those that organised Britain First’s last ‘March for Remigration’ in August was Lee Twamley, someone who himself has a conviction for people smuggling.

Golding publicly attended a Remembrance Sunday event at the Cenotaph drunk wearing women’s underwear on his head. Resist Britain First believes that all this information makes it clear that the party’s claim to be ‘Britain First’ is steeped in inconsistencies. They are racist thugs.

This comes against the backdrop of the Gorton and Denton by-election in Greater Manchester. Reform UK is happily amplifying the racist rhetoric of job-slashing Man United owner Jim Ratcliffe.

The full list of Greater Manchester based groups in Resist Britain First includes:

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  • Young Struggle Manchester.
  • RS21 Manchester.
  • Manchester Feminist Coalition.
  • Greater Manchester Tenants Union, South Branch.
  • No Borders Manchester.
  • Northern Police Monitoring Project.
  • Red Roots Collective.
  • Anti-Fascist Action Manchester.
  • South Asian Liberation Movement.
  • Manchester Trans Liberation Assembly.
  • Salford Anti-Fascists.
  • Stockport Anti-Fascists.

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Foreign misadventures and how to avoid them

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Foreign misadventures and how to avoid them

Simon Bennett puts the current challenges to the rules-based world order such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine into historical context.

History repeats. In 1991, world leaders talked of the end of the Cold War. Some, like George H.W. Bush, claimed victory. Academic Francis Fukuyama posited the end of history. Such talk proved premature. Putin’s rise to power ended Russia’s experiment with liberal democracy. Stalin and Beria, head of the NKVD, the Soviet Union’s secret police, would feel at home in today’s Russia where press freedoms are curtailed, journalists persecuted, the political system gerrymandered and pacific neighbours such as Georgia and Ukraine invaded. During its war on Ukraine, Russia has kidnapped children, targeted non-military sites, destroyed energy infrastructure so people freeze, denied the developing world Ukrainian wheat and launched misinformation, disinformation and hybrid warfare campaigns against Ukraine’s allies.

The rules-based international order is in retreat as Russia, China and the US assert themselves. Imperialism – a soft power instrument – and colonialism – a hard power instrument – are in vogue. The doctrine of Might is Right is again to the fore. Putin’s war on Ukraine aims first, to recover that country to Moscow’s political orbit and secondly, to provide it a new source of raw materials, both mundane, such as coal, oil, methane and iron ore, and exotic, such as uranium and rare earth oxides (REOs).

Like Putin, Trump is asserting himself, albeit without waging all-out war. Trump’s tactics are subtler: First, hector the target. Denigrate its leaders. Patronise, belittle and misrepresent its people and security situation. If the target refuses to acquiesce, field soft-power instruments such as tariffs. If the target still refuses to acquiesce, threaten to take by force that which is coveted, for example, REOs. Presently, these tactics are being applied to Greenland and its champions.

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Trump’s assertion that he wants to federate Greenland for security reasons is disingenuous – a false flag. Trump’s motivation is primarily economic. He covets Greenland’s oil, methane, uranium, nickel, titanium, tungsten, zinc, gold and diamonds. He most assuredly covets Greenland’s REOs. Geographical notes: ‘Estimates suggest that Greenland may have 42 million metric tonnes of rare earth oxides…. To put [that] into perspective… China currently has… 44 million metric tonnes of REOs’. Greenland is a glittering resource prize for any aspirant imperial-colonial power.

In seeking hegemony over Greenland, Trump is employing the imperial-colonial playbook used by European powers in the 18th and 19th centuries. Specifically:

  • issue threats to test the subject’s resolve
  • absentia a surrender, garrison the territory, possibly with a private army as Britain did India in the C18th through the East India Company
  • install a puppet regime.

Given Trump’s ambivalence towards NATO , the fact that Greenland is linked to Denmark, a NATO member, is likely of little consequence to the US president.

Trump’s ambitions for Greenland should come as no surprise to those familiar with American foreign policy, as, like all great powers, the US has always meddled, sometimes with unexpected, if not catastrophic results. Eisenhower instructed the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to depose Iran’s elected left-leaning leader, Mohammad Mosaddegh. In this effort the CIA was helped by Britain. Following Guatemalan left-leaning leader Jacob Arbenz Guzman’s seizure of American assets, Eisenhower instructed the CIA to destabilise his regime. During Eisenhower’s presidency the CIA trained Cuban exiles to unseat Fidel Castro. The decapitation plan, actioned in 1961 by Eisenhower’s successor, failed. In 1969, Nixon secretly bombed neutral Cambodia in an effort to disrupt the Ho Chi Minh Trail. In 1970, US troops crossed into Cambodia.

In the 1930s, sociologist Robert K. Merton hypothesised that purposive social action may produce both expected outcomes (‘manifest functions’) and unexpected outcomes (‘latent functions’). Merton called undesirable latent functions ‘latent dysfunctions’. Eisenhower’s intervention in Iran brought Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi to power. While Pahlavi’s White Revolution emancipated Iran’s women, his secret police, SAVAK, coached by the CIA, imprisoned, tortured and disappeared thousands of political opponents. Persistent social inequality allied with SAVAK’s repression inspired the Iranian Revolution of 1979 that produced a theocratic regime as, if not more repressive than that fashioned by the Shah. Kennedy’s failed Cuba invasion likely cemented Castro’s hold on power. Nixon’s intervention in Cambodia breathed life into a sociopathic communist cadre known as the Khmer Rouge. The Khmer emptied Cambodia’s cities and murdered anyone considered a threat to its Year Zero movement. Circa three million Cambodians were killed. It is not unreasonable to argue that Iran’s repressive regimes, Castro’s political longevity and Cambodia’s genocidal Year Zero movement were to some degree latent dysfunctions of American imperialism.

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Practising strategic empathy, with disinterested geopolitics experts gameplaying outcomes from interventions, can help leaders avoid foreign adventures that risk accruing more costs, for example, loss of life, treasure, reputation and allies’ good will, than benefits.

Strategic empathy and gameplay can help Greenland’s allies scope what might happen to the territory. With an expanding American military at his back, Trump has the option of defying the rules-based international order and taking Greenland by force. Greenland is roughly the size of western Europe. If Trump invades, what is to stop Russia and China, perhaps acting in concert gratis their 2022 ‘no-limits’ friendship pact and numerous subsequent joint military exercises, emulating Trump’s tactics? They, too, could seize Greenlandic territory. Greenland could find itself being carved up by Russia, China and the US in the same way that Africa was carved up by Germany, Belgium, Britain and other powers in the 19th century. Were Greenland to be invaded by America’s geopolitical competitors, where would that leave Trump’s plan to exploit Greenland’s resources and secure the northern border? Further, where would that leave NATO, for decades one of the guarantors of the rules-based international order? If such an event came to pass, it is unlikely Trump, who eschews confrontations that involve putting boots on the ground, would join battle with the Russia-China axis. In this scenario, Trumpian colonialism would have rendered the US less secure. In Merton’s argot, it would have delivered to the US a latent dysfunction.

Decision-support instruments, strategic empathy and gameplay should be at the heart of foreign policy decision-making. Skilfully practiced, the instruments can help leaders first, gameplay third party perceptions and reactions, and secondly, make decisions that see objectives achieved with minimal risk.

By Dr Simon Ashley Bennett, Director of the Civil Safety and Security Unit, University of Leicester.

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Marco Rubio serves up colonial nostalgia

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Marco Rubio serves up colonial nostalgia

Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State and a bulwark of the Trump administration, gave a “disquieting” imperialist speech at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday to deflect from the Epstein files fallout.

Journalist Ben Norton called the speech “a blatant call” by the US empire to resuscitate Western colonialism and recolonise the Global South.

Marco Rubio peddles neocolonialism

Rubio appealed to the UK far-right by explicitly crediting “English settlers” for America’s language, political system, and legal framework. He also appealed to German nationalists by praising “German farmers and craftsmen” for building the American heartland and jokingly upgrading beer quality.

Our story began with an Italian explorer whose adventure into the great unknown to discover a new world brought Christianity to the Americas – and became the legend that defined the imagination of a our pioneer nation. Our first colonies were built by English settlers, to whom we owe not just the language we speak but the whole of our political and legal system. Our frontiers were shaped by Scots-Irish – that proud, hearty clan from the hills of Ulster that gave us Davy Crockett and Mark Twain and Teddy Roosevelt and Neil Armstrong.

Our great midwestern heartland was built by German farmers and craftsmen who transformed empty plains into a global agricultural powerhouse – and by the way, dramatically upgraded the quality of American beer.

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The reaction to Rubio’s imperial nostalgia and his thirst for a new wave of colonisation has been swift and daming.

Lebanese-American journalist Rani Khalek damned Rubio for American exceptionalism:

Author Joe Guinan warned that the U.S. is building a neo-fascist movement in Europe:

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Former Indian diplomat Kanwal Sibal stated that the speech was effectively a declaration of war against the non-Western world:

Professor Matteo Capasso quipped: “Average proud representative of Rubio’s ‘civilization’ speech in Munich,” tagging a picture of disgraced paedophile Jeffrey Epstein:

Academic Dan Kervick called for resistance to the growing fascism.

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UK’s Rubio Also Drumbeats War

Starmer, the UK’s gutless fraud, called the US an “indispensable power” in his Munich speech on the same day.

The US remains an indispensable power. Its contribution to European security over 80 years is unparalleled. And so is our gratitude.

At the same time, we recognise that things are changing. The US National Security Strategy  spells out that Europe must take primary responsibility for its own defence. That is the new law.

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Starmer’s subordination to the US was clear. He told Europe it must be “ready to fight” and “stand on our own two feet” – not as an independent strategy, but as a response to US demands:

 

Starmer also appeared to target the UK Green Party’s ambivalence towards NATO. He dismisses those who question NATO or the US alliance as “peddlers of easy answers… on the extremes of left and right” who are “soft on Russia” and “weak on NATO.”

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In the 1930s, leaders were too slow to level with the public about the fundamental shift in mindset that was required.

So we must work harder today to build consent for the decisions we must take to keep us safe.

Because if we don’t, the peddlers of easy answers are ready on the extremes of left and right and they will offer their solutions instead.

It’s striking that the different ends of the spectrum share so much. Soft on Russia. Weak on NATO. If not outright opposed. And determined to sacrifice the relationship we need on the altar of their ideology.

How did the right wing respond?

A MAGA fan account celebrated Rubio receiving a standing ovation in Germany after telling Europe to return to Christianity and oppose migration from the Global South:

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Reform’s mayoral candidate for Hampshire endorsed the Telegraph’s take on the speech, which recommends listening more to Rubio:

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The lesson – Reform and Labour are both endorsing Rubio’s “fascist supremacist manifesto” lecture. The Western ruling elite is openly baying for a return to its colonial heyday.

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Rubio has clearly intended for his speech to signal to those already on the far-right that if they back the US, their colonial ambitions will see fruition. And, his speech purposely misses out one central fact: colonialism never left. The US’ imperial ambitions, from Venezuela to Gaza have been clear to see. Western powers are still extracting resources, dominating cultural production, and wielding the seemingly irrepressible power of unaccountable militaries.

This isn’t just colonial nostalgia. It’s rewriting the very reality of the present; colonialism never left.

Featured image via the Canary

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In Defence of Matthew Doyle

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There is one thing above all that Keir Starmer is brilliant at, and that’s throwing colleagues under a bus, and failing to take responsibility himself for things that go wrong. It’s something that means he has very few people around him who are totally loyal to him. They know that at the first whiff of cordite, it is they who he will turn on, and get rid of. It’s why the atmosphere in Downing Street has been so toxic.

Let’s look at the case of Matthew Doyle. He is someone who has served the Labour Party in one capacity or another for much of his adult life. He served both Tony Blair and Gordon Brown for the best part of 15 years, until 2012, when he joined David Miliband’s International Rescue Committee.

In 2021 he was appointed Labour Party Director of Communications by Keir Starmer, and in July 2024 became the Downing Street Director of Comms. It was a job he lasted only 8 months in.

Starmer then awarded him a peerage in December 2025. It then emerged that he had campaigned for a Labour councillor in Scotland, Sean Morton, who, it turned out had been charged with paedophile offences some months prior to standing for re-election. He was charged with the offences in December 2016, so quite why he stood again, only he can know.

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In Doyle’s statement resigning the Labour whip last week, he gave a full explanation of what had happened. In the statement he addressed the fact that he had also met Morton in 2019 as he had been warned about Morton’s state of mind. He wrote:

“I want to apologise for my past association with Sean Morton. His offences were vile and I completely condemn the actions for which he was rightly convicted. My thoughts are with the victims and all those impacted by these crimes.

At the point of my campaigning support, Morton repeatedly asserted to all those who knew him his innocence, including initially in court. He later changed his plea in court to guilty. To have not ceased support ahead of a judicial conclusion was a clear error of judgment for which I apologise unreservedly.

Those of us who took him at his word were clearly mistaken. I have never sought to dismiss or diminish the seriousness of the offences for which he was rightly convicted. They are clearly abhorrent and I have never questioned his conviction.

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Following his conviction any contact was extremely limited and I have not seen or spoken to him in years. Twice I was at events organised by other people, which he attended, and once I saw him to check on his welfare after concerns were raised through others.

I acted to try to ensure the welfare of a troubled individual whilst fully condemning the crimes for which he has been convicted and being clear that my thoughts are with the victims of his crimes. I am sorry about the mistakes I have made. I will not be taking the Labour whip.

For the avoidance of any doubt, let me conclude where I started. Morton’s crimes were vile and my only concerns are for his victims.”

I ask you this question: Does Matthew Doyle deserve to be thrown under to the wolves for this? Does he deserve the oppropbrium that has been poured on him from Starmer, cabinet ministers and Labour MPs alike. And the opposition for that matter? Does he deserve to have his whole reputation tarnished forever because he campaigned for an officially endorsed Labour candidate? It could hardly be worse if he himself was being accused of paedophilia.

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Look at the bit of the statement I have highlighted in bold. Wouldn’t we all do the same in the circumstances? If we were told someone we knew was on the edge? I know I would, regardless of what they had done. It’s called being compassionate. In the Labour Party, it seems compassion is not universally available to all.

In case you all think I am standing up for a political mate, I am not. I’ve had a few encounters over the years with Matthew Doyle, and probably met him only two or three times. He facilitated Keir Starmer appearing at my Edinburgh Fringe show in 2022 and was a pleasure to deal with. I’ve interviewed him on the radio a couple of times but that’s about it. We’ve never met socially.

I just find it stomach-turningly disgraceful that a good man is being hung out to dry in the most awful and public way. Slag me off for saying that if you want to, but frankly, I’d rather stand with Matthew Doyle, than some of the people who are throwing him under a bus with scant regard for his own mental health or wellbeing. They disgust me. And Keir Starmer disgusts me most of all. No loyalty, no sense of decency, but full of political expediency. That, in the end, will be his downfall.

The mob in full cry is an ugly beast.

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Binyamin Jayson: Prosper UK is a fatal misreading of today’s politics

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David Gauke: Bemoaning the people and prospectus behind Prosper UK is just part of politics - but at least get it right

Binyamin Jayson is a writer focusing on UK politics and Conservative thinking.

I would classify myself as a true blue Tory; not turquoise, not orange.

To our right we have divisive populists; to our left, wets in denial. This article sets out why I oppose Prosper UK acting as a pressure group, despite my genuine sympathies with one-nation Conservatism. Like many who have joined Prosper, I am sceptical of Trump, uneasy about culture wars, and deeply opposed to populism that stokes division. But despite this I believe the emergence of Prosper UK, as it currently operates, is profoundly harmful to the Conservative Party.

Our political identity

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It took over a year of serious thought for Kemi Badenoch to clearly articulate what the Conservative Party now stands for. That process mattered. You cannot persuade others until you know yourself.

At Conference, she set out a platform of low tax, low intervention, low regulation, lower immigration, and scrapping net zero. These are not radical departures. They are classic Conservative positions, and they are positions around which the party should feel confident rallying.

Some are uncomfortable with the sharper rhetoric on immigration and net zero. I understand that instinct. But rhetoric does not exist in a vacuum. It often reflects reality. And the reality of Britain in the mid-2020s is very different from that of the Cameron years.

The country has changed

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Over the last five years, there has been a deep cultural, economic and political shift. To pretend otherwise, is to behave as though we are still living in the politics of the early 2010s, is not just naïve, it is political suicide.

Britain today is not Britain in 2010. The pressures are different. The data is different. The public mood is different. Serious Conservatism means responding to the facts on the ground, not retreating into nostalgia. Kemi’s ideas are not ideological indulgences. They are conservative answers to contemporary problems. And they are correct for the time.

Prosper UK and the centre that no longer exists

The goal of Prosper UK appears to be to drag the Conservative Party back to the “centre” as ConservativeHome columnist David Gauke makes clear today. But the centre has moved. The people pushing this project are stuck in the Cameron years, in denial about how much the political landscape has changed.

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Even Labour has hardened its rhetoric on immigration. Not out of conviction, but out of necessity. That alone should tell us something. We do not need Prosper UK to help us discover our uniqueness. We are already distinct from Reform, and we are distinct in ways that matter.

Why we are not Reform

We are more fiscally conservative. Reform has a deeply divided economic base; Conservatives do not. That gives us the unique credibility to deal seriously with welfare reform, taxation, and the size of the state.

We reject identity politics. We judge people on the content of their character, not their skin colour, birthplace or religion. To our left and right are movements that obsess over identity rather than merit. We reject populism. We do not inflame anger to win votes. We do not trade in grievance, toxicity or division. We have a coherent plan to deal with the issues our nation faces.

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And crucially, we do not need to prove we are different from Reform by moving leftwards. That is a category error. Our distinction is already clear.

We should stick with clarity not switch to compromise.

We should not abandon our principles to lure back figures like Rory Stewart. Nor should we chase Reform voters by mimicking Reform rhetoric. We are not Liberal Democrats. We are not Reformers. We are Conservatives.

That means believing there has been a climate change while recognising that Britain currently lacks the financial capacity for a full net-zero project. It means recognising immigration can be positive, while admitting that two decades of near-open borders have shattered social cohesion and eroded a national identity.

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It means believing in tearing away red tape so businesses can innovate, employ and grow. It means incentivising start-ups through low corporation tax. It means creating an environment where wealth is not driven offshore, but invested at home. It means a small state that actually works. It means tackling inflation and unemployment through making a more suitable environment for businesses. It means confronting Islamism head on. And it means being transparent with the electorate.

That is my Conservatism.

Unity, not psychodrama

Kemi Badenoch has, at last, found her feet. It would be deeply unhelpful if, at precisely this moment, she is forced to fight another internal faction, this time to her left. At Prosper’s launch, Andy Street argued the party needed to communicate a more economy-focused approach. But that is exactly what Kemi has been doing. In recent months, the Conservatives have spoken more about the economy than any other issue, and rightly so.

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One-nation Conservatives must understand this: we can be economically focused while also speaking clearly about immigration, net zero, and the failure of certain institutions. These are not contradictions at all.

If Prosper UK works with Kemi; supporting her leadership rather than pressuring her to retreat to an imaginary centre-ground, then I would enthusiastically welcome that. That is how we build a winning coalition.

But if Prosper exists to force policy change, it will alienate members, fracture the party further, and push a second wave of MPs and activists into the arms of Reform.

That would be a gift to our opponents.

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It is incumbent on Conservatives to unite behind the values and policies Kemi has set out, and to make the case for them with confidence.

Enough with the psychodrama. Enough with the factions. The country is in a position too precarious to hand over to incompetent delinquents in Reform or incompetent delusionals in Labour.

Britain needs a serious, robust, centre-right voice; one that believes in a small state, strong borders, fiscal discipline, and national cohesion. Let’s unite as Conservatives.

True Conservatives.

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Politics Home Article | Ministers Warned Hillsborough Law Could Delay Justice For Victims

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Ministers Warned Hillsborough Law Could Delay Justice For Victims
Ministers Warned Hillsborough Law Could Delay Justice For Victims


5 min read

Disagreement over a proposed duty of candour has held up Keir Starmer’s Hillsborough Law. As the government and campaigners try to find a solution, the legal profession is now warning that the legislation risks delaying justice for victims failed by the state.

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Last month, a group of Labour MPs forced the government to withdraw the Public Office (Accountability) Bill — widely known as the Hillsborough Law — from the parliamentary agenda after campaigners complained that its scope was too narrow.

It includes a duty of candour, which obliges public officials to tell the truth and be transparent during investigations into national disasters like Hillsborough.

In 1989, 97 Liverpool fans were crushed to death during a match against Sheffield Wednesday at Hillsborough Stadium in Sheffield. The families of the victims have fought for justice and police prosecutions ever since.

In December, an Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) report said twelve officers would have faced gross misconduct proceedings over their actions in the disaster if they were still serving. The report, which followed a 13-year IOPC investigation, described “fundamental failure” and a “concerted effort” by police to blame fans for what happened on 15 April 1989.

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Starmer says the law will be remembered as “one of the great acts of this Labour government”. Those close to the PM say the legislation matters deeply to him. At last year’s Labour Party conference, he was introduced on stage by long-term Hillsborough campaigner, Margaret Aspinall, who lost her 18-year-old son at the disaster. 

As things stand, the proposed duty of candour does not extend to the intelligence services, as the government believes that doing so could undermine national security.

Labour MPs and campaigners have warned that this is insufficient and are pushing ministers to look again at the scope.

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Anneliese Midgley, Labour MP for Knowsley, who once worked for Starmer, said the Bill couldn’t progress without the confidence of the Hillsborough families. “This is a real red line for many other colleagues and me,” she told PoliticsHome.

“There has got to be heads banged together, it cannot be beyond the wit of so many clever people to get something which is workable.”

At the same time, however, lawyers are warning that the Hillsborough Law, while well-intentioned, could effectively create what they describe as a new legal industry, slowing down justice, rather than speeding it up.

Under the draft Bill, bereaved relatives would qualify for free legal aid at inquests, to ensure that they have the same legal representation as public bodies. Ministers say that wider access, also described as ‘parity of arms’, is essential for fairness and creating a level playing field.

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However, government officials privately admit that the cost implications for departments will be significant. They point to the example that coroners’ inquests are funded by local authorities, whose budgets are already under pressure.

The first Hillsborough inquest was the longest in British legal history at the time, lasting more than a year. On that occasion, all families were represented by a single lawyer, whereas the Hillsborough Law would grant legal representation to each victim family.

Michael Wills, who sat on the independent Hillsborough inquiry, believes “there is no way” that the government will work through these questions quickly.

“They [ministers] are going to argue, and then what’s going to happen is the officials will get together quickly, then they’ll argue. Then they’ll go away, they’ll go back to ministers. Then the ministers will meet. Then it will go to the Prime Minister,” he told PoliticsHome

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“How long is this going to take before they even start with the legal aid?”

Others worry about the wider impact the law could have on how Whitehall works.

Oliver Carroll, Legal Director at Bird & Bird, told PoliticsHome he is concerned that by “increasing administrative pressures and the risk of litigation against public bodies”, the legislation will lead to more cautious government decision-making.

Maria Eagle, Labour MP for Liverpool Garston and herself a lawyer, said it would be wrong to view her profession as the key to delivering justice for victims of state-related tragedies like Hillsborough.

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“I’m not against people getting legal representation when it matters to them,” she said.

“But the idea that that is what solved Hillsborough is a delusion. The idea that if only there had been more lawyers at an earlier stage, Hillsborough wouldn’t have gone wrong, is just refuted by the facts.

“It wasn’t any legal process that got to the truth of Hillsborough. It was a non-legal process, the Hillsborough independent panel. It was a transparency process that had no lawyers involved. The thing that held up the families getting to the truth was legal actions that went wrong and didn’t work.”

A government spokesperson said: “This Hillsborough disaster will remain in our national consciousness for its tragedy and disgraceful injustice.

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“Our legislation will right these wrongs, changing the balance of power so the state can never hide from the people it is supposed to serve, and making the police, intelligence agencies and the whole of government more scrutinised than they have ever been.

“As we have done throughout this process, we are taking the time to get this right — working with families and campaigners to create a Bill that is testament to their decades of campaigning, while never compromising on national security.”

 

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