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The long-awaited Labour budget needs to show the party knows what to do with power | Larry Elliott

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The long wait is almost over. On Wednesday, for the first time in more than 14 years, a Labour chancellor will have the chance to deliver a budget – and much is riding on what Rachel Reeves comes up with. After a series of unforced errors, the government needs to seize back control of the political narrative.

Reeves has said her budget will launch a new era of investment that will rank alongside Labour’s historic reform programmes of the past. She cannot afford the budget to be a dud.

There is no reason why it should be. Forget the idea that “wealth creators” are about to leave the country en masse because they might have to pay higher rates of capital gains or inheritance tax. Some might, but the vast majority will stay put. Ignore, too, suggestions that Reeves’s plans to borrow more for investment will lead to a ferocious sell-off of UK financial assets. The chances of another “Liz Truss moment” are remote.

That’s not to say Reeves has an easy job on her hands. The chancellor has pledged that there will be no return to austerity, and that requires an increase in public spending. She wants to keep the financial markets happy, so higher day-to-day spending means higher taxes.

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Labour has ruled out raising taxes on working people, by which it means the rates of income tax, VAT, employees national insurance contributions and corporation tax. Together these account for about two-thirds of all tax raised, so raising the revenue to pay for the spending increases requires some ingenuity and some confusion over exactly who qualifies as a working person and who doesn’t. The biggest chunk of money will come from the national insurance contributions made by employers.

Finally, the chancellor wants to reverse the cuts to infrastructure spending, inherited from the last government, to boost the UK’s growth rate. Jeremy Hunt’s plans involved a fall in public investment from 2.4% to 1.7% of national output (gross domestic product) by 2028-29 – the equivalent of £24bn a year by the end of the current parliament.

This is therefore a budget that will raise spending, raise borrowing and raise taxes all at the same time. With growth slowing and consumer confidence dented by the chancellor’s repeated warnings about how draconian she intends to be, it could all go horribly wrong.

Yet despite the risks and the apparent contradictions, the strategy has a logic to it. Extra spending on the NHS, schools, local government and prisons can be justified by 14 years of neglect under the Tories. The tax increases to pay for higher spending can also be blamed on the Tories. Part of the budget is about wiping the slate clean.

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The other part of the budget involves laying the foundations for future growth. Writing about the last Labour budget in his memoirs, Alistair Darling says: “A great deal of my speech was devoted to the need to improve our country’s infrastructure, including energy and transport. The case for government investment remains a strong one. There are areas in which, without government support, both financial and over important matters such as planning laws, we will fall further behind other countries.”

That was true back in 2010 and it is just as true today. The prolonged period of rock-bottom interest rates after the global financial crisis provided an opportunity for a succession of Conservative governments to borrow cheaply for investment. Sadly, that opportunity was squandered.

Reeves says plugging the hole in the public finances and investing for the future are two sides of the same story. The reason the NHS is creaking and the government is letting prisoners out on early release schemes is because economic growth has been weak for the past decade and a half, and even weaker once population growth is taken into account.

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Getting the economy to grow faster requires higher investment but Britain – as the International Monetary Fund noted last week – has lower rates of private and public capital spending than many of its peers. The chancellor thinks it makes sense to borrow to invest in transport and energy projects because this will lead to faster growth, higher tax revenues and the ability to spend more on public services. She is absolutely right about that.

Reeves said last week that she intends to make it easier for the government to borrow by changing the rules on public debt. Analysts estimate that her planned new measure – which takes into account the state’s financial assets and liabilities – could increase the scope to borrow by about £50bn.

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In reality, Reeves will only use some of this additional headroom and may borrow only enough to avoid the £24bn cut to investment inherited from Hunt. In part this is due to concern over a market backlash but it is also due to the chancellor’s insistence that day-to-day government spending must be covered by tax receipts. Debt interest counts as day-to-day spending and – all other things remaining equal – the more the government borrows for investment the higher those interest payments will be.

In some respects Reeves has made life harder for herself. The recent slowdown in the economy is in part due to her overdoing the doom and gloom. Means-testing the winter fuel allowance for pensioners was a blunder that has cost her much public goodwill. Her message now that public investment is both good and necessary sits oddly with the decision in opposition to scale back the ambition of Labour’s green investment plan.

So this is a big moment for the government and for Reeves personally. Labour had a well-executed plan for gaining power. The budget needs to show increasingly sceptical voters that the party knows what to do with it.

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Labour MP Mike Amesbury filmed punching man to the ground in Cheshire | Labour

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Footage has emerged of a Labour MP punching a man to the ground and then hitting him several more times.

A video published by the Mail shows Mike Amesbury, the MP for Runcorn and Helsby, hitting the man in the face and knocking him to the floor, before standing over him and aiming six more blows at his head.

The security camera footage also shows Amesbury shouting: “You won’t threaten me again, will you?”

Amesbury said in a statement on Saturday night: “Last night I was involved in an incident that took place after I felt threatened on the street following an evening with friends. This morning I contacted Cheshire police myself to report what happened during this incident.

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“I will not be making further comment but will, of course, cooperate with any inquiries if required by Cheshire police.”

After an initial video showing the aftermath of the altercation was published on Saturday night, a Labour spokesperson said: “We are aware of an incident that took place last night. We understand that Mike Amesbury MP approached Cheshire police to report what happened this morning himself and that he will cooperate with any inquiries they have.”

The education secretary, Bridget Phillipson, refused to say on Sunday whether Amesbury would have the whip suspended while police investigated.

“Mike Amesbury is cooperating fully with the police,” she said. “He’s gone forward himself to the police, and it is right that the police now look into this matter, investigate and decide what action, if any, is required.”

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Officials did not respond on Sunday after footage emerged of the incident.

Cheshire constabulary said in a statement: “At 2.48am on Saturday 26 October, police were called to reports of an assault in Frodsham. A caller reported he had been assaulted by a man in Main Street. Enquiries are ongoing.”

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The footage shows Amesbury talking to the man at 2.15am in the Cheshire town of Frodsham. Shortly after the man looks away, Amesbury punches him with enough force to knock him to the ground, before standing over him and hitting him repeatedly as a third man tries to prise him away.

Amesbury was a shadow minister in the housing department before the election but was not given a government job after the party came to power. He won his seat with a majority of nearly 15,000 ahead of the second-placed party, Reform UK.

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Labour backbenchers accuse Keir Starmer of ‘colonial mindset’ | Labour

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Three prominent Labour backbenchers have accused Keir Starmer of an “insulting” and “colonial mindset” over his reluctance to discuss reparations for the transatlantic slave trade.

Ahead of a summit of the Commonwealth heads of government in Samoa last week, the prime minister rejected calls to discuss reparations with Caribbean and African nations, with No 10 insisting it was “not on the agenda”.

Starmer said slavery was “abhorrent” but his stance was “looking forward rather than looking backwards”, adding that he wanted to focus on discussing “current future-facing challenges” at the summit instead of “very long, endless discussions about reparations on the past”.

On Sunday the Labour MP Bell Ribeiro-Addy addressed a cross-party reparations conference in London, saying it was “very insulting [to] tell people of African descent to forget and move forward”.

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“Reparations are not about relitigating historic injustices, they are about remedying the deep-rooted inequalities that still shape our world today,” she said. “At a time when there is growing awareness of how racial hierarchies that endure to this day were constituted to justify the enslavement and colonisation of African peoples, state-led action on reparations is sadly lacking.”

Another Labour MP, Clive Lewis, said it was surprising Starmer had thought he could take a “colonial mindset” to the summit and “dictate what could and could not be discussed”.

Diane Abbott, the first Black woman to become an MP, co-chaired the conference in London. She said the Labour party previously had plans to establish a national reparations commission but Starmer “seems to have forgotten that”.

“Reparations isn’t about the past, it is about the here and now,” she said. “The descendants of African slaves and colonised peoples continue to suffer from the consequences generations later.

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“Real reparations aren’t just about compensation, they’re a way of tackling colonialism’s damaging legacy of racism and inequality. They are about the total system change and repair needed to heal, empower and restore dignity.”

At the conclusion of the Commonwealth heads of government meeting (Chogm), the leaders resolved that “the time has come” for a conversation on reparatory justice.

A document signed by the 56 leaders, including Starmer, stated it was time for a “meaningful, truthful and respectful conversation” about justice for the transatlantic trade in enslaved Africans and chattel enslavement, with the aim of forging “a common future based on equity”.

Ribeiro-Addy, who chairs the all-party parliamentary group for Afrikan Representation, said: “I’m very proud those nations refused to be silenced.”

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In a press conference after the summit, Starmer downplayed the significance of the paragraph in the document that called for a conversation about reparatory justice, telling reporters it was a small part of “quite a long communique”.

“None of the discussions have been about money. Our position is very, very clear in relation to that,” he said. He added that the issue would be revisited when a delegation of Caribbean nations visits the UK next year.

Last week, amid mounting pressure, a source in No 10 told the Guardian that the UK could support some forms of reparatory justice, such as restructuring financial institutions and providing debt relief.

“There is a general sense that these multilateral institutions give out loans to developing countries then charge large interest rates for repayments,” the source said.

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CCTV appears to show Labour MP punching man to the ground

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CCTV appears to show Labour MP punching man to the ground

CCTV footage has emerged appearing to show Labour MP Mike Amesbury punching a man to the ground.

In footage obtained by the Daily Mail, the Runcorn and Helsby MP is apparently seen continuing to hit the man as he lies in the street.

It comes after a different video, posted on X, purported to show Amesbury shouting and swearing at the man lying in the street in Frodsham, Cheshire.

In that clip, Amesbury can be heard shouting: “You won’t threaten the MP ever again, will you?”

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Both Amesbury and the Labour Party have been contacted for their response.

It is not clear what happened in the build-up to the moments caught on film.

In a statement issued before the Daily Mail footage emerged, Cheshire Police said: “At 02:48 BST on Saturday 26 October police were called to reports of an assault in Frodsham.

“A caller reported he had been assaulted by a man in Main Street. Enquiries are ongoing.”

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Posting on his own Facebook page on Saturday, the 55-year-old backbencher said: “Last night I was involved in an incident that took place after I felt threatened following an evening out with friends.

“This morning I contacted Cheshire Police myself to report what happened.

“I will not be making any further public comment but will of course cooperate with any inquiries if required by Cheshire Police.”

Amesbury has been a Labour MP in Cheshire since 2017 and served as a shadow minister between 2018 and 2024.

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In the July general election he won his constituency with a majority of 14,696.

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Cutting off Unrwa would deeply harm Israel’s reputation, says UK minister | Foreign policy

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Israel’s reputation as a democracy would be “deeply harmed” if the Knesset pressed ahead with bills this week that would end all Israeli government cooperation with the Palestinian relief agency Unrwa, the UK’s Middle East minister has said.

Hamish Falconer said such a move at a time when the humanitarian crisis in Gaza was catastrophic and worsening would “neither be in Israel’s interest or realistic”.

His remarks are the strongest criticism yet by a western government minister of the legislation, which could be voted on as early as this week unless the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, intervenes.

He was speaking as a joint statement was released from seven European foreign ministries, including the UK’s, urging Israel to drop the proposed bill, saying: “It is crucial that Unrwa and other UN organisations be fully able to deliver humanitarian aid and their assistance to those who need it most, fulfilling their mandates effectively.”

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Falconer demanded that more aid be allowed to enter Gaza and said too many civilians were being killed in Israeli attacks on Hamas in Gaza. He was speaking at a conference in London convened by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz.

Falconer said the measures taken by the Labour government so far did not indicate any decline in Labour support for the state of Israel, but his remarks were as sharp as any delivered by a Labour minister.

He said: “We are deeply concerned by legislation currently under consideration by the Israeli Knesset which would critically undermine Unrwa. It is neither in Israel’s interest nor realistic.

“Given the agency’s vital role in delivering aid and essential services at a time when more aid should be getting into Gaza, it is deeply harmful to Israel’s international reputation as a democratic country that its lawmakers are taking steps that would make the delivering of food, water, medicines and healthcare more difficult.”

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He added: “The international community are clear that Unrwa and other humanitarian organisations must be fully able to deliver aid.”

Many Israelis regard Unrwa as too closely linked with Hamas and also committed to the Palestinian refugees’ right of return.

Falconer, who has recently been to the Egypt-Gaza border, said humanitarian access to Gaza remained wholly inadequate. “I saw for myself thousands of trucks waiting to cross the border,” he said. “Some had been there for months. There were warehouses full of life-saving items – medical equipment, sleeping bags and tarpaulin for the winter. There have been repeated attacks on humanitarian convoys and the level of aid getting in is far too low.”

He challenged Israel’s military tactics inside Gaza, saying: “Hamas is a brutal terrorist organisation, it hides behind Gazan civilians, but all parties must do everything possible to protect civilians and fully respect international humanitarian law.”

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He said Israel “must protect civilians even if it means making difficult choices. All too often in the pursuit of Hamas we have seen civilians pay the price. The Israeli government must take all necessary precautions to avoid civilian casualties, to ensure aid can flow into Gaza and freely through all humanitarian land routes.”

Falconer also said: “As long as there is little accountability for settler violence, the government will consider further actions.”

Warning that the risk of further escalation could not be exaggerated, he called for calmer heads to prevail and urged Iran not to retaliate for Saturday’s Israeli attack. The death of the Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar presented an opportunity for a new chapter, he said, and no military solution existed to the crisis.

Speaking at the same event via video link, the former UK prime minister Tony Blair said: “Hamas cannot be allowed to continue to govern Gaza, and Israel will need to pull back to allow the development of a different governance structure for Gaza that would then enable reconstruction to take place.”

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Blair said he knew that many in Israel doubted Gaza could ever be run differently, and many assumed a “higher level of support for Hamas than exists in reality”.

He said polls commissioned in August by the Tony Blair Institute showed that the most popular choice was an administration of Gaza representatives with international oversight and linked to the Palestinian Authority. He said the poll showed that in the West Bank there was strong agreement behind moderate to deep reform of the Palestinian Authority.

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Education secretary ‘open minded’ on England smacking ban

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Is Reform UK's plan to get Farage into No 10 mission impossible?
Getty Images Little girl with bunches looking out a large window, inside a green wooden hut. Getty Images

The education secretary has said she is “open minded” to a ban on smacking children in England, but that there are no imminent plans to change the law.

It comes after fresh calls for a ban in England by Children’s Commissioner Dame Rachel de Souza, who suggested adopting similar measures already in place in Scotland and Wales.

Asked if she supports that proposal, Bridget Phillipson told the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg that the government is “considering it” but legislation would not be brought forward “any time soon”.

Children’s charity the NSPCC called on new legislation “as soon as possible” as there was “mounting evidence” that physically disciplining children could be “damaging”.

Speaking on Sunday morning, Phillipson said she was keen to hear from Dame Rachel and other experts “on how [a ban] would work”.

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She added that she thought “we do need to look at how we keep children safe”.

Phillipson added that the upcoming Children’s Wellbeing Bill, which is expected to be introduced “by the end of the year”, will address many of the issues relating to children’s care and safeguarding.

Anna Edmundson, head of policy at the NSPCC, told the BBC that calls had tripled to the charity’s helpline from adults concerned about the use of physical punishment on children.

In a statement she added: “That is why we want the Government to legislate as soon as possible to give children in England the same protection from assault afforded to adults and already in place for children in Scotland and Wales.”

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Other charities, including Barnardo’s, have also long called for an English smacking ban and two-thirds of English people polled by YouGov in March last year said physically disciplining a child is not acceptable.

Bridget Phillipson appears on set with Laura Kuenssberg. They are both sitting on red chairs and appear to be talking. The Education Secretary wears a dark pink dress with a memorial poppy pin attached.

Bridget Phillipson on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg

In England and Northern Ireland it is legal for a carer or parent to discipline their child physically if it is a “reasonable” punishment – but the Children Act 2004 made it illegal to assault a child causing actual or grievous bodily harm.

The previous Conservative government argued parents should be trusted to discipline their children and there were “clear laws in place” to prevent violence.

The Department for Education told the BBC earlier this week that it was now “looking closely” at the law changes made in Scotland and Wales, which came into force in 2020 and 2022 respectively, to see whether more could be done in England.

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Posting on X last week, Dame Rachel said a ban on any kind of corporal punishment, including smacking, hitting, slapping and shaking, could stop lower level violence from escalating.

“If we are serious about keeping every child safe, it’s time England takes this necessary step,” she said.

“Too many children have been harmed or killed at the hands of the people who should love and care for them most.”

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David Amess’s daughter says Prevent anti-terror scheme ‘isn’t fit for purpose’ | UK security and counter-terrorism

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The daughter of the murdered MP David Amess has criticised Home Office failures that meant her father’s killer was unmonitored for years before the attack, saying the Prevent programme “isn’t fit for purpose”.

Speaking to the Sunday Times, Katie Amess condemned the fact her father’s killer was known to authorities but his case was closed due to “an admin error”.

“We know the guy did it,” said Katie. “I just want to know how and why he was allowed to … What has been changed to ensure that this never happens again and that another family doesn’t have to go through the absolute heartbreak and trauma that has just shattered our world?

“My father gave 40 years of his life, day in, day out, to his people and his country. He is owed the decency and the respect to find out where he was failed.”

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Ali Harbi Ali was convicted of stabbing Amess to death on 15 October 2021 at a church in Leigh-on-Sea, Essex, where the Conservative MP had been holding an advice surgery for people in his Southend West constituency.

It was later revealed that Ali had been referred to the government’s anti-radicalisation Prevent programme, and then for more intensive support through the Channel counter-terrorism programme before his case was closed. He went on to spend at least two years researching which MP to murder.

He told police he had carried out the killing because he was angered by western actions in Syria and saw himself as a soldier of Islamic State.

Katie Amess says the family was told ‘an admin error’ meant her father’s killer was left unmonitored. Photograph: Geoff Pugh/Shutterstock

Katie Amess said the family were told Ali’s case was not followed up in the programme “due to an admin error” that meant a second meeting with the then 18-year-old did not take place.

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The newspaper reported that Lincoln Brookes, the senior coroner for Essex, said there had been “some shortcomings” in the Prevent programme and Ali’s case was closed even though problems had not been addressed.

Brookes said “record-keeping is problematic and the rationale for certain decisions was not explicit” and “an opportunity to assess whether or not any progress had been made was missed”.

However, the coroner concluded the programme would not necessarily have prevented the attack and that it “would be speculative to assume that national security services do, should or could, detect and track every Islamic State sympathiser”.

Amess’s family pushed for an inquest to consider the state’s failings in the run-up to Ali’s attack, but in July Brookes ruled there was not enough evidence to justify holding one.

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Katie Amess, an actor who lives in California, said she had been diagnosed with post-traumatic stress disorder, while her mother, Julia, 70, who was married to Amess for nearly 40 years, moved out of the family home of three decades in Southend because it was too painful to stay.

“It’s just the most unbearable, unspeakable pain. We’ve lost a great, great man who can’t be replaced. Now I just want to make him proud by fighting back against being told no to something that we should be allowed to know. I can’t accept this,” she said.

“He was reported. People were trying to help us. And so why was he allowed to just go on and do whatever he wanted for seven years? What happened to my dad should not have been an admin error.”

The family wants greater protection for all MPs and is pushing for more answers about what happened to Amess, and how his killer evaded authorities for so long.

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“It’s pretty obvious that Prevent isn’t fit for purpose, it has consistently failed people,” Katie Amess said. “It failed me. It failed my family catastrophically, it failed the public and also it failed other members of parliament.”

A Home Office spokesperson said: “Our thoughts continue to be with Sir David Amess’ family and friends. The attack on Sir David Amess was an awful tragedy, the safety of members of parliament is paramount and significant work has been taken forward in response to his tragic killing.

“Prevent is a vital tool to stop people from becoming terrorists or supporting terrorism and tackles all ideological causes of terrorism.”

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