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Wings Over Scotland | Echoes of history

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The Sunday National’s front page today elicited a sigh of “So what?” from most.

We’ve already GOT a “pro-indy” majority at Holyrood and have done for the last 10 years, for all it’s been worth. But there was a paragraph in the article that at least raised an eyebrow.

Because, y’know, that doesn’t seem very likely.

The Greens trailed in a very distant 4th in the seat in 2021, despite a relatively well-known candidate (the current Presiding Officer, in fact), and since they’d likely need at least a 300% jump in their vote to stand a chance – something not suggested by any polling anywhere – we’re not quite sure how the analysis has come to that rather startling conclusion.

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(It would seem to us somewhat more feasible that Reform could cannibalise the collapsing Tory and Labour votes to emerge as the main challenger, though they’d still be quite an outside bet in the unusually affluent seat.)

But something rang a bell as we read those lines. And then we remembered.

In 2016, an “analysis” from Cutbot, a company run by poisonous and creepy Scottish Greens activist James Mackenzie, had also predicted the Greens capturing the seat from the SNP. The reality proved somewhat different.

Alison Johnstone came a distant 4th again, but her 4,644 votes were enough to let Ruth Davidson sneak through and pip the SNP candidate by 610, with almost twice as many votes as the Cutbot analysis had predicted. We wonder what ever became of Alison Dickie.

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The predictions (which were widely covered by a gullible Scottish media) are still worth a chuckle almost a decade later. Cutbot’s website no longer exists and its Twitter account last tweeted just three weeks after the 2016 election. So we’re not sure what it is about Edinburgh Central that appears to disrupt people’s brainwaves.

If anyone thinks the analysts have got it right this time, though, we’re happy to accept any wagers made by readers who think Lorna Slater will capture the seat in three months’ time. Just let us know how much you want to bet in the comments.

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Mel Stride: Really, is that it? All we got was a surrender statement from a spent Chancellor out of ideas

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Mel Stride: Really, is that it? All we got was a surrender statement from a spent Chancellor out of ideas

Sir Mel Stride is the Shadow Chancellor and MP for Central Devon.

There are moments in politics when what is not said matters more than what is. Yesterday’s Spring Statement was one of them. The country needed reassurance that there is a plan to fix our economy.

But what did we get? Silence. Shrugged shoulders. A Chancellor who seemed to believe that doing nothing counts as a plan.

Rachel Reeves stood at the despatch box and told the country that her plan is working – and therefore she does not need to do anything.

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The trouble is, the facts stubbornly refuse to cooperate with the Chancellor’s narrative. The economy is slowing, businesses are shedding jobs, and households are feeling the squeeze. Yet the Chancellor chose denial over delivery.

Reeves talks endlessly about how she has brought stability. What planet is she on?

Under this Chancellor, we’ve seen tax rises, destroyed growth, vanished headroom, then yet more tax rises, and so it continues. A fiscal twister ripping through our economy.

On growth, her spin collapses entirely. The Bank of England have downgraded their growth forecasts for this year, and now the OBR have done the same. The Chancellor boasts about beating forecasts, yet last year’s growth came in at 1.3 per cent against an original forecast of 2 per cent. By any normal definition, that is failure – not success.

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And then there is unemployment. The Chancellor barely mentioned it, perhaps because it now sits at its highest level since the pandemic. Under every Labour government in history, unemployment has risen. This one is no exception. Youth unemployment is now higher than the European average – the first time in a quarter of a century.

The Chancellor says our borrowing costs are falling. But does she not know that Britain’s cost of borrowing remains among the highest in the G7 – higher even than Greece? If debt were a government department, it would be the third biggest in Whitehall. That is money not going to schools, hospitals, or policing, but simply flushed away.

On borrowing itself, the truth is damning. At the election, the forecast for borrowing this year was £77bn. Yesterday the OBR said they now expect it will be £133bn.

And when it comes to bringing that deficit back down again, the numbers underpinning the government’s plans rely on implausible assumptions: deep spending squeezes and yet more tax rises in the run up to the next election, and households absorbing higher energy bills without complaint. Everyone knows it is unrealistic – surely even the Chancellor must privately recognise it. But realism requires backbone, and this government has none.

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We have already seen it. Winter fuel payments: U-turn. Welfare reform: U-turn. The two-child benefit cap: U-turn. Farm taxes, family business taxes, pubs – all U-turns. Whenever pressure mounts, this weak government folds.

But despite the evidence of how much damage she has done, we saw no course correction from the Chancellor. Unless, of course, doing nothing is a convenient new way of avoiding the inevitable U-turns further down the line.

The Chancellor insists she is “creating the conditions for growth.” She’s like a dodgy estate agent standing in a crumbling building – roof gone, windows smashed, floors falling away – urging us to “just think of the potential!” But potential means nothing when the foundations have been wrecked by reckless borrowing and runaway spending.

Higher taxes, higher inflation, higher borrowing, higher welfare spending, higher unemployment. That is the record. And still, no apology. No contrition. No plan.

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And despite recent events in the Middle East, the Chancellor offered nothing new on how she will fund a move to 3 per cent of GDP on defence spending. She boasts about spending billions on lifting the two child benefit cap – money going on welfare which could have gone towards strengthening our nation’s security.

It does not have to be this way. There is an alternative, as Kemi and I have set out. Control spending, reform welfare to reward work, cut taxes to unleash growth, lower energy costs and get the deficit down. A serious plan for our country.

What we saw yesterday was a government out of ideas, out of their depth, and rapidly running out of road. Britain deserves better – and the longer this Chancellor pretends otherwise, the higher the price we will all pay.

You can see Mel Stride’s response in the House of Commons here

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Trump’s Choice To Attack Iran Creating Worldwide Chaos Just Days In

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U.S. President Donald Trump looks on during a meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C. on March 3.

When Donald Trump posted a brief video early on Saturday about the war he had just started with Iran, he neglected to mention the predictable consequences.

Like a plunging stock market. Or spiking oil prices worldwide and gasoline prices at home. Or tens of thousands of American citizens stranded in the Middle East. Or Iran striking out at its neighbours and whipping up a metastasising regional war.

Not four days later, all of these have come to pass, which is likely to make Trump’s massive attack on Iran at the behest of Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu even less popular among Americans than it already is.

“It’s not clear to me what Trump’s main objective is, or how long it will last before something else takes its place,” said John Bolton, one of Trump’s national security advisers in his first term and a decades-long proponent of taking a hard line against Iran.

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“There’s a compelling case for regime change in Iran, but he hasn’t made it yet.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday closed 1,000 points lower than it was on Friday afternoon, hours before Trump’s attack began. Oil prices are up 13% since Friday, and gasoline prices jumped 11 cents overnight and now average $3.11 nationally.

In his first question-and-answer session with the press since starting the war — apart from brief phone interviews with selected reporters — Trump defended his decision to attack Iran and minimised the chaos it has already generated.

He even contradicted the explanation by his own secretary of state, Marco Rubio, that the US had to act because Israel was about to attack Iran on its own, which would have dragged the United States into the conflict regardless.

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U.S. President Donald Trump looks on during a meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C. on March 3.
U.S. President Donald Trump looks on during a meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C. on March 3.

ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS via Getty Images

Trump said he decided that Iran, not Israel, was about to strike first — an assertion contradicted by his own intelligence community.

“It was my opinion that they were going to attack first. They were going to attack if we didn’t do it, they were going to attack first. I felt strongly about that,” Trump said in an Oval Office photo opportunity with visiting German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Trump, who had been planning the attack on Iran for months and had deployed two entire carrier strike groups to the area, claimed that his decision had come too rapidly to permit the timely evacuation of American citizens from the region.

“Because it happened all very quickly. We thought, and I thought maybe more so than most, I could ask Marco ― but I thought we were going to have a situation where we were going to be attacked. They were getting ready to attack Israel, they were getting ready to attack others, you’re seeing that right now,” he said, before going off on a rambling, 800-word tangent about high-end ammunition and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and how it would never have happened if he been president and some insults of his predecessor, Joe Biden.

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Asked about the petroleum price increases, Trump said those would go away when the war was over. “So, if we have a little high oil prices for a little while, but as soon as this ends, those prices are going to drop, I believe, lower than even before,” he said.

Trump’s claim of it all happening so quickly will likely provide little comfort to Americans, both expats and visitors, stuck in the region.

While the State Department urged US citizens in a list of 14 countries and the Palestinian territories to leave at once, the US embassy in Israel told Americans hoping to do precisely that that because the main airport was closed, they should take a bus to Egypt, and try to find a flight from there.

“If you choose to avail yourself of this option to depart, the US government cannot guarantee your safety,” the advisory stated.

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Trump later in the afternoon announced in a social media post that the US government would assume the financial liability risk of all shipping, regardless of nationality, in the Persian Gulf, including the Strait of Hormuz, the choke point at the southeastern end that Iran is trying to close off.

“Effective IMMEDIATELY, I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL Maritime Trade, especially Energy, traveling through the Gulf. This will be available to all Shipping Lines. If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible,” Trump wrote. “No matter what, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD. The United States’ ECONOMIC and MILITARY MIGHT is the GREATEST ON EARTH — More actions to come. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

In his meeting with Merz, Trump also acknowledged the lack of a plan for after Iran’s Islamic regime loses control of the country.

He told reporters in previous days that his “template” had been his assault on Venezuela early in January, when US special forces troops were able to find and abduct that country’s dictator, with his second-in-command taking over after agreeing to Trump’s demands for a cut of Venezuela’s oil revenue.

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That model, Trump agreed, seemed implausible in Iran, where the bombing campaign has killed lower-echelon leaders whom Trump had hoped to install to run the country.

“Most of the people we had in mind are dead. So, you know, we had some in mind from that group that is dead, and now we have another group. They may be dead also based on reports. So, I guess you have a third wave coming and pretty soon we’re not going to know anybody,” he said.

While Trump told the New York Post on Monday that he was not ruling out deploying American troops in Iran, he was also trying to persuade armed Kurdish groups in Iraq to seize control of Iran, effectively serving as his proxy army, according to another report.

When asked about that possibility, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt responded: “President Trump has been in contact with many allies and partners in the region throughout the past several days.”

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In American diplomatic parlance, however, “allies” and “partners” have specific definitions, neither of which appears to apply to the Kurdish groups in either Iraq or Iran, so it is unclear what Leavitt meant.

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Troops Being Told To Prepare for ‘Armageddon’ In Iran

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Smoke rises up after a strike in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, March 1.

For some US military commanders, the emerging war in Iran is part of a biblical plan to bring about the end of the world as we know it, according to complaints filed by over 100 service members.

The Military Religious Freedom Foundation has received a litany of complaints about religious ideology seeping into military orders since the US and Israel began bombing Iran, independent journalist Jon Larsen first reported.

Mikey Weinstein, founder and president of MRFF, a nonprofit group established 21 years ago that focuses on ensuring constitutional protections for service members, spoke with HuffPost by phone and illuminated some details of the complaints, which have come from more than three dozen military units situated in at least 30 different military installations.

“We started getting calls in the wee hours of Saturday morning from people saying their commanders were just jubilant about this and trying to tell people, ‘Don’t worry, it’s all part of God’s plan,’” Weinstein said.

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Weinstein said the “metric promised” in the Bible’s Book of Revelation is horrifying and should worry everyone.

“They are promised a 200-mile-long river that is four-and-a-half feet deep filled with nothing but the blood that their weaponised version of Jesus will spill at the Battle of Armageddon,” Weinstein said. “That’s a lot of blood.”

Part of what makes the accounts so disturbing, Weinstein said, is that service members aren’t able to push back when they’re given orders that blur the line regarding the separation of church and state.

“This is all about time, place and manner,” he said. “If you’re being proselytised to by your superior, you can’t say, ‘Get out of my face.’ Under the military’s criminal code of justice, insubordination is considered a felony.”

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One of the complaints MRFF received over the weekend came from a non-commissioned officer currently stationed outside of Iran but awaiting deployment at a moment’s notice. That officer filed the complaint on behalf of himself and 15 other troops, all of whom are of different religious backgrounds. (For their protection, MRFF is keeping the identity of these service members anonymous.)

Smoke rises up after a strike in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, March 1.
Smoke rises up after a strike in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, March 1.

The non-commissioned officer, who is Christian, reported to MRFF that a commander told them to tell fellow troops that the war in Iran was “all part of God’s divine plan.” The commander allegedly cited the Book of Revelation and the section specifically referring to Armageddon and the “imminent” return of Jesus Christ.

The non-commissioned officer said the messaging from higher-ups is not only “destroy[ing] morale and unit cohesion” among troops, but they also believe the commanders are flagrantly violating their oaths to uphold the Constitution, which guarantees the freedom of religion.

According to the complaint first reported by Larsen, the commander said President Donald Trump “has been anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth.”

The commander “had a big grin on his face when he said all of this which made his message seem even more crazy,” the complaint said.

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“I and my fellow troops know that it is completely wrong to have to suffer through what our commander said today. It’s not just the separation of church and state … It’s the fact that our commander feels as though he is fully supported and justified by the entire (combat unit’s name withheld) chain of command to inflict his Armageddon views of our attack on Iran on those of us beneath him in the chain of command,” the officer wrote in his complaint to MRFF.

Weinstein said some service members called him on Sunday to report that they were being invited to Bible studies at their commanders’ personal homes to “discuss how this was all part of the plan and it’s all being lived out in the Book of Revelation and Christian eschatology.”

Commanders were “in a hurry” to get subordinates on board, according to the complaints received by MRFF.

Once a service member makes a complaint to MRFF, finding a solution can be difficult. Service members have a few different options, Weinstein said: If troops are told they lack courage, intelligence or bravery because of their religious tradition or lack thereof, they can file an inspector general complaint or an ethics complaint within the military.

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“But then you completely out yourself,” Weinstein said. “And when you do that in the military, you become what we call a ‘tarantula on a wedding cake.’ How long do you think that cake lasts at that wedding?”

Troops can complain to military judge advocates, lawyers or chaplains, but the latter can be especially tricky. The majority of the US military’s chaplains are Christian and many are evangelical.

“By itself, that’s fine,” Weinstein said. “But if you are a Christian Nationalist, you don’t pay any attention to the time, place or manner … with any sort of religious extremism, we end up not with little streams, or creeks or brooks, but with oceans and oceans of blood.”

Weinstein said none of this should necessarily be shocking. The evangelical leanings of the Trump administration — and in particular the Department of Defense — have not been a secret. At a prayer breakfast last month, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed the US was a “Christian nation,” and there are prayer meetings at the Pentagon each month.

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But putting religion into politics is inflicting “generational damage” onto the US and its military, Weinstein said.

The White House did not immediately return a request for comment.

Harrison Mann, a 13-year veteran of the US Army who served under President Barack Obama, during Trump’s first term and under President Joe Biden, told HuffPost that for soldiers, there “isn’t much of a difference” inside the military — at least “culturally speaking” — even when presidents are “doing some really crazy stuff” publicly, he said.

Because of that, he argues it may be too soon to say whether Hegseth can actually inflict permanent damage to the military. Mann is, however, deeply worried about what happens to the public perception of the troops in the meantime.

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“There’s danger in commanders telling soldiers they only vouch for Christians, whites or MAGA supporters. When the public starts to view the military that way too, then you get to a much more dangerous place where they no longer have trust in them,” he said.

Today, Mann is the associate director of campaigns for Win Without War, a grassroots progressive foreign policy advocacy organization based in Washington, DC that formed in 2003 in response to the US invasion of Iraq. Mann left his role as assistant to the head of the Middle East Centre at the Defence Intelligence Agency, or DIA, in 2024, for moral reasons.

After the attacks in Israel on October 7, 2023, Mann said his mission as a soldier primarily became about supporting Israel and sharing intel with Israeli military officials. But once he saw what the war in Gaza was becoming — “a genocide,” he said — he resigned.

Mann knows from personal experience how frightening it can be for a soldier to speak out. The Trump administration’s politicisation of the military, as the MRFF complaints clearly show, makes it harder. Mann worries it is fast creating a situation where subordinate leaders may believe the messaging from on high grants them “tacit approval to start imposing their own religious beliefs on others.”

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“I can tell you I’m very worried,” he said. “I think most people who join the military, they want to do something they feel is noble and they want to do the right thing. But the potential consequences for refusing an unlawful order or standing up for what you think is right is very high … So it goes back to the question: What can everyone else do to help them?”

To start, Mann said the public can broadcast support for service members who speak up or disobey unlawful orders or unconstitutional directives. That validation is in short supply inside the military, so it must come from the outside, he said.

“It’s very frightening to imagine that you would be on your own if you tried to defy an unlawful order,” Mann said. “We need to see increasing efforts by members of Congress to impeach Secretary Hegseth and everyone can put pressure on their lawmakers to support that effort.

“You can support a lot of the organizations like About Face and Win Without War that are trying to create a welcoming, safe space for service members who are experiencing this kind of unfair treatment,” he said.

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Mann said he isn’t hopeless about the future even though there is much to despair over right now.

“It’s way too soon to give up. There’s just so much that we have not tried… there are so many pressure tactics that haven’t culminated yet. There’s so much people power that has not yet been mobilized. As terrifying as what is happening is, there’s a critical opportunity for growth and pushback against Trump’s agenda,” he said.

CORRECTION: This story has been updated with Harrison Mann’s correct title.

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11 Steps Under-65s Can Take To Lower Bowel Cancer Risk

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11 Steps Under-65s Can Take To Lower Bowel Cancer Risk

Medical advice provided by Dr Asiya Maula, private GP at The Health Suite, and Dr Donald Grant, GP and Senior Clinical Advisor at The Independent Pharmacy.

New research has found that almost half of bowel cancer cases (sometimes called colorectal cancer) occur in under-65s.

It was not always this way. The paper, published in the American Cancer Society, said that bowel cancer rates have been declining among over-65s since the ’80s, but rising among those under 50.

Here, we asked GPs Dr Asiya Maula and Dr Donald Grant why this could be happening and what we can do to lower our risk.

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Why are younger people getting bowel cancer?

Both doctors said there likely isn’t a single cause.

It “likely reflects cumulative lifestyle and environmental changes,” Dr Maula said.

“We are seeing higher levels of chronic inflammation in younger populations, often linked to ultra-processed diets, sedentary behaviour, stress, and disrupted sleep.”

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She also thinks exposure to microplastics, a less diverse gut biome, and air pollution may play a role.

“No single exposure directly causes bowel cancer, but cumulative toxic load over time may influence gut health and inflammatory pathways.”

For his part, Dr Grant said, “While [bowel cancer] remains common in older age groups, factors such as rising obesity levels, diets low in fibre and high in processed foods and an increase in sedentary lifestyles and alcohol intake are all thought to be contributing to this shift.”

How can under-65s lower their risk of bowel cancer?

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Not every case of bowel cancer is preventable. But, Dr Grant said, “There are also plenty of ways people can minimise their risk of bowel cancer.”

Dr Maula added, “Small, consistent changes over time can make a meaningful difference.”

Their prevention tips are:

  1. Maintaining a well-balanced diet,
  2. staying physically active,
  3. keeping to a healthy weight,
  4. limiting alcohol intake,
  5. avoiding smoking,
  6. attending screening when invited,
  7. supporting gut health by “prioritising fibre-rich whole foods” (we’re meant to eat 30g of fibre a day, but 90% of us don’t),
  8. reducing the consumption of ultra-processed products,
  9. supporting regular bowel movements,
  10. trying to reduce stress,
  11. getting enough sleep,
  12. adequate hydration, and
  13. reducing environmental toxic exposures wherever possible.

Speak to your GP if you notice possible signs of bowel cancer, like rectal bleeding, blood in your stool, changes in your bowel habits (like going more often, unusual constipation, or diarrhoea), feeling you still need to “go” after pooping, losing weight without meaning to, fatigue, and/or abdominal or rectal pain.

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Katie Lam: We can make Keir Starmer U-turn yet again, but we need your help

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Katie Lam: We can make Keir Starmer U-turn yet again, but we need your help

Katie Lam is a shadow Home Office minister and MP for Weald of Kent.

Time and again during this Parliament, we’ve seen that change from opposition is genuinely possible.

This Government’s majority may be large, but they are incredibly weak – and with enough pressure, they can be made to change course.

In their 2024 manifesto, Labour promised to introduce ‘day one workers’ rights’, which would have allowed a worker hired in the morning to take their employer to a tribunal in the afternoon. It would have been a disaster for businesses across the country. Yet after months of Conservative campaigning, and pressure from our group in the House of Lords, they scrapped the plans.

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In September last year, they walked back plans to introduce a mandatory definition of Islamophobia, which would have effectively protected Islam from criticism. Having initially announced a closed consultation, they were forced to open it up to the public, by the hard work of Conservative colleagues like Nick Timothy and Claire Coutinho.

And in just the past week, we’ve seen the disastrous Chagos giveaway put on ice, and Starmer flip-flop on whether or not to allow American strikes on Iran to take place from British military bases.

This is what happens when a party comes into power with no plan for what it wants to do, or how it wants to do it. The British people deserve so much better than this rudderless government – but while they’re still in power, there’s plenty that we can do to force them to listen.

Perhaps the most brazen U-turn of all was on the grooming gangs. In January last year, the Prime Minister described the issue as a “far-right bandwagon”. Lucy Powell, then Deputy Prime Minister, called it a “dog whistle”. Ministers like Yvette Cooper and Jess Phillips denied the need for a proper inquiry until they were blue in the face, insisting that the issue had already been properly investigated.

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Then they commissioned Baroness Casey to conduct a rapid review of what we already know about these horrific crimes. Her findings were conclusive – thousands of children, across multiple decades, were groomed, raped, and trafficked by gangs of men, most of whom were Pakistani Muslims. Institutions like the police, local councils, and care homes were complicit in covering up those crimes, often because they feared being branded as racist.

And so, reluctantly, the Government agreed to hold a full national inquiry. There was hope that, finally, we would uncover the full truth about the grooming gangs, and that victims would at last get justice.

Yet despite the shocking findings of Baroness Casey’s review, the Government still doesn’t seem willing to conduct this inquiry in good faith. After the inquiry was announced, they dragged their feet for months, refusing to release any details about how it would be conducted. When they finally did provide us with the details, they made for sorry reading.

Any public inquiry must conduct itself according to its ‘terms of reference’. This document sets out what the inquiry can and can’t investigate, and what it should be looking to achieve. Unfortunately, the draft terms of reference produced by the Government for the grooming gangs inquiry are fatally flawed.

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They give the inquiry no scope to review the role that race and religion played in motivating these crimes. They provide no powers to prosecute the officials who were responsible for the cover-up. They won’t investigate every local authority with a history of grooming gang cases, and nor will they consider cases before 2000, despite the fact that we know that these gangs have been operating for decades. The list of failures go on and on.

If victims are ever going to get the justice that they deserve, we must force the Government to change course again. The terms of reference must be changed, to make sure that the inquiry can confront the full truth about the grooming gangs. The public has been kept in the dark for too long – the cover-up must end.

Fortunately, there’s still time to make that happen. These flawed terms of reference are subject to a consultation, which closes on Friday 6th March. At groominggangjustice.uk, we’ve compiled a full list of the problems with these terms of reference. If you agree that the inquiry needs to be able to uncover the whole truth, then you can put in your details – name, email, post code – and we’ll automatically fill in the consultation for you.

It only takes a moment, but if enough people put pressure on the Government to change direction, we can force them to conduct a proper national inquiry that confronts the full scale of the grooming gangs.

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These are the worst crimes to have taken place in this country in living memory. The very least that we can do is force the Government to expose the whole truth.

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Trump Faces MAGA Backlash Over Iran War

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Trump Faces MAGA Backlash Over Iran War

Prominent conservatives and MAGA influencers normally allied with President Donald Trump are publicly questioning his war on Iran, prompting aggressive pushback from the president and his administration.

Right-wing luminaries including Tucker Carlson, Matt Walsh, Megyn Kelly and former congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene have criticised the war or noted the president’s shifting justifications. Elected Republicans have taken notice.

“The president did a masterful job of creating an eclectic coalition, but I can see where this is a wedge for some of them,” Republican Senator Thom Tillis told HuffPost.

The Iran war is an obvious betrayal of Trump’s campaign pledge for “no new wars.”

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Carlson called the war “absolutely disgusting and evil” and said Trump could lose support from his most loyal voters.

Sean Davis, CEO of the Trump-friendly news website The Federalist, said it wasn’t clear if the goal was to “free the Iranian people or degrade their nuclear capability or degrade the conventional weapons capability or eliminate their regional hegemony or to cut off their oil supply to China or to help Israel.”

“The lack of any coherent message seems to suggest the lack of any coherent objective,” Davis said on X.

Podcaster Matt Walsh also noted some contradictions in the administration’s messaging.

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“So far we’ve heard that although we killed the whole Iranian regime, this was not a regime change war. And although we obliterated their nuclear programme, we had to do this because of their nuclear program,” Walsh wrote. “And although Iran was not planning any attacks on the US, they also might have been, depending on who you ask.”

Some Republican lawmakers acknowledged these criticisms are reasonable, even if they ultimately disagree.

“They don’t want another Iraq. Nor do I. I don’t think that’s where we’re headed,” Republican Senator John Kennedy told HuffPost.

“But I see their point of view, and it’s a valid point of view. But I just don’t believe this is a repeat of the mistakes, if any, that we made in Iraq.”

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Asked by HuffPost if Trump had adequately explained the reasons for the war, Republican Senator Roger Wicker, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, went silent.

Most Republicans, however, didn’t hesitate to recite some of the justifications the White House has offered for the new war in the Middle East.

“It’s been explained for 47 years, hasn’t it? No regime has killed more Americans than the regime that we’ve now wiped out,” Senator Bernie Moreno told HuffPost.

“The predicate for action has been pretty clear: They can’t have a nuclear weapon.”

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Even before the war, the MAGA coalition had splintered somewhat, most notably with Greene’s resignation from Congress after Trump turned against her for supporting the release of the Epstein files. The early reviews of the Iran war suggest an even more dramatic break is possible.

The White House has responded somewhat aggressively to its MAGA war sceptics.

Asked about Clarkson and Kelly in particular, Trump said the pair don’t define the Make America Great Again movement. “I think that MAGA is Trump,” the president told independent journalist Rachel Bade.

In response to Walsh’s criticisms on X, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt responded that the goal was to end the nuclear programme and generally destroy the Iranian regime’s military capabilities.

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“Their brutal attacks and threats will finally end under President Trump,” Leavitt said in her own post. “America will win – the terrorists will be defeated.”

Walsh was not swayed, calling it “gaslighting” to argue, as Leavitt and other pro-war conservatives have done, that Iran has been “waging war” on the US for 47 years.

“You and I both know that almost every conservative influencer in the business was opposed to war with Iran until just now,” Walsh said.

A handful of Republicans in Congress, meanwhile, are also sceptical of the war.

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Senator Rand Paul labelled it “yet another preemptive war” in the Middle East, and Representative Thomas Massie indicated he’d vote for a War Powers resolution to stop the conflict.

More surprisingly, Representative Warren Davidson, who is less prone to bucking the party than Massie or Paul, suggested President Trump had wrongly dragged the US into war without congressional authorisation.

“Congress declares war. America is at war. Congress did not declare war,” Davidson wrote. He did not signal that he would vote for a resolution ending the war.

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Labour’s attack on jury trials is an attack on democracy

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Labour’s attack on jury trials is an attack on democracy

A few weeks ago, I was lucky enough to attend In Defence of Trial by Jury, a panel event co-organised by spiked and the Free Speech Union. The event was a response to UK justice secretary David Lammy’s absurd plans to reduce the number of Crown Court cases that go before juries.

The panel members questioned Lammy’s assumption that jury trials were to blame for the Crown Court’s current backlog of almost 78,000 cases (rather than, say, a lack of funding or the number of spurious claims that now make it to court). And they emphasised the centrality of jury trials to our liberal institutions and to the common law, which has long been a bulwark of liberty in Britain, as in other English-speaking countries.

Yet one thing that struck me about the panellists’ excellent contributions is that they all centred on what philosopher Isaiah Berlin called ‘negative’ liberties – our freedom from coercion by the state – rather than on ‘positive’ liberties – our freedom to participate in decision-making with our fellow citizens. In other words, the contributions had more to say about liberalism than about democracy.

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The threat to civil liberties posed by Lammy’s jury-trial plans is not to be underestimated. Especially at a time when Brits can be charged with ‘inciting racial hatred’ for expressing concern about illegal immigration on social media, as was the position of former Royal Marine Jamie Michael last year. Michael, as it happened, was cleared by a jury of his peers after only 17 minutes. It is understandable to wonder what might have happened had a judge from our current legal elite decided the verdict.

But if we are to understand the full extent of the trouble Lammy’s reforms would cause, we need to also start talking about how anti-democratic they are.

Jury trials were a central feature of the first recorded democracy in history, classical Athens. Like us, the ancient Athenians selected jurors randomly from the citizenry (though they excluded women, immigrants and slaves from the draw). These juries were massive, usually involving hundreds of people, and undoubtedly far more powerful than ours today. Their remit included not just determining guilt or innocence, but also sentencing.

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Of course, Athenian juries didn’t always get it right – Socrates infamously found himself condemned to death for impiety by a jury in 399 BC. But the Athenians rightly saw juries as the primary means of implementing the law that the people had voted on. They were part and parcel of a democratic system that randomly allotted citizens to other powerful bodies, such as the Council of 500, which handled daily governance. The idea was to ensure that ordinary people (or at least ordinary men) were active participants in the state’s most consequential decisions.

Modern English juries don’t descend directly from the mass juries of ancient Greece. Our system is largely a Norman import, though earlier Anglo-Saxon and Scandinavian customs may have helped lay the ground. English juries were initially selected by a sheriff, who would put together a group of local men who might know something about the case on trial. Over time, however, the expectation shifted toward jurors who were strangers to the facts and capable of impartial judgment.

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Selection procedures gradually became more regulated in the 18th and 19th centuries, and were eventually standardised under modern statute. This makes our juries one of the few surviving institutions that still entrust ordinary citizens with direct participation in the administration of justice – a principle ancient democracies prized, but which many modern systems have limited.

After all, most modern democracies outside the Anglosphere don’t make use of juries often, if at all. So why stick with them? One answer might be that they provide a crucial channel for more public involvement in our increasingly out-of-touch, elitist politics. This is a principle that senior figures in Keir Starmer’s Labour Party claim to support. Indeed, in 2024, Starmer’s former chief of staff, Sue Gray, came out in favour of citizens’ assemblies: randomly selected groups convened to deliberate on public policy. Curiously, Lammy himself even expressed an interest in the idea in a select committee hearing in 2020.

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But if randomly selected assemblies are a good thing, then why not randomly selected juries? If Labour truly believes ordinary people should have a say, why is it itching to remove one of the only institutions that guarantees they do?

Supporters of Lammy’s cuts to jury trials claim that the changes will be minor, with more than 20 per cent of Crown Court cases going before a jury as opposed to around 30 per cent now. But if we really care about democracy, surely we should be increasing the number of ways ordinary people can get involved in decision-making, not stripping them back.

It seems the only conclusion to be drawn here is a simple one: Labour doesn’t care very much about democracy at all.

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James Kierstead is a former lecturer in Classics and an adjunct fellow at The New Zealand Initiative think-tank.

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