As we rapidly approach the halfway mark of the NFL season, some of these award races begin to perhaps become clearer.
I say perhaps because just last season, we saw how fickle and unpredictable these awards markets can be.
Joe Flacco was 250-1 to win Comeback Player of the Year with just a month or so to play last season. Eventual Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski was 80-1 to win the award in mid-December. Even MVP Lamar Jackson was available at 15-1 with mere weeks left in the season. Eventually, a Christmas night showdown against the 49ers went the Ravens’ way, swinging the award to their quarterback for a second time in five years.
These awards are not set in stone since there’s still some football left to play, and leaving a good final impression on voters goes a long way to deciding who ultimately wins.
As far as the MVP race goes, there are four players who have single-digit odds to win heading into Week 9.
Jackson and Josh Allen are co-favorites, both at +300 odds (a $10 bet returns $40 total).
Allen finally threw his first interception of the season last week, but it came in a blowout win in Seattle. Allen has his team on pace to clinch the AFC East title by Thanksgiving.
Jackson continues to put up outstanding numbers, but his team is only 5-3 after an upset loss in Cleveland in Week 8. And I remain steadfast in my belief that winning this award for a third time will be extremely difficult for Jackson, especially considering he hasn’t duplicated his regular-season success in the playoffs.
Fair or not, I believe voters will use those factors as a tiebreaker against voting for him.
Should the NFL fear the undefeated Chiefs or 6-1 Lions more?
Patrick Mahomes is at +600 odds, and that’s largely because of his reputation and due to the Chiefs’ undefeated record. However, Mahomes does not currently have the statistical profile of an MVP, as he leads the NFL in interceptions.
Lions quarterback Jared Goff is +800, and out of all of these options, he is still the best bet on the board in terms of value.
But there is another award wager available at an even better number that caught my eye this week.
Jonathan Gannon 22–1 Coach of the Year
The Arizona Cardinals are 4-3 and are favored this week over the Bears.
A 4-3 record doesn’t sound that impressive, but when you examine their schedule, you realize the Cardinals have played the toughest competition of anyone.
They’ve already faced the Lions, Packers, Bills, Chargers, Commanders and the Dolphins with Tua Tagavailoa. They also played (and won) in San Francisco against the 49ers. That win could be huge when deciding division tiebreakers later in the season.
A look at their remaining schedule gives hope to the Cardinals that they can be close enough to winning the NFC West that those tiebreakers can come into play. They’re favored this week, they’re favored next week at home against the Jets, and have games against the Panthers, Patriots, and two games against the Seahawks remaining.
The 49ers were heavy favorites to win the division coming into the season, but they have struggled so far this year and seem to lose an All-Pro caliber player every week due to injury. If the Cardinals can get to 10 wins or more — and I think they can — a division title is possible.
And that would give Gannon a great chance of cashing this ticket at 22-1.
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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