Brandon Royval knows what it’s like to be a hungry challenger.
The flyweight veteran scraped and clawed his way to a UFC title shot, falling just short of the gold with a decision loss to Alexandre Pantoja this past December. A razor-thin win over two-time champion Brandon Moreno nudged Royval closer to a rematch, but there’s still work to be done if he wants another crack at it and that means beating the undefeated Tatsuro Taira this Saturday in the main event of UFC Vegas 98.
In this “what have you done for me lately?” business, Taira has the opportunity to steal Royval’s spot—currently tied for No. 2 in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings, well ahead of Taira at No. 8—and leap right into the title picture. Which is not to say Taira won’t have earned it as he’s currently 16-0 with six wins in the UFC. Oh, and he doesn’t turn 25 until January.
Pantoja should watch this headliner closely because he could be scouting his next challenger.
In other main card action, Brad Tavares makes his 25th UFC appearance, a record in the middleweight division, Chidi Njokuani continues to test the welterweight waters, Grant Dawson looks to move closer to the lightweight top 15, welterweight veterans Daniel Rodriguez and Alex Morono square off, and Abdul Razak Alhassan targets a fast finish against Josh Fremd.
What: UFC Vegas 98
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, Oct. 12. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a five-fight main card at 7 p.m. ET also on ESPN+.
Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira
It’s scary the rate at which Tatsuro Taira is evolving and that’s why I like his chances against Brandon Royval.
Make no mistake, this is the biggest test for Taira yet. The Japanese wunderkind looked good against Alex Perez before a grappling exchange that Taira controlled resulted in Perez blowing out his knee, but outside of that he’s yet to perform against the best that flyweight has to offer. He’s clearly the class of his tier, but how will that translate against an opponent that just went 25 minutes in a title fight eight months ago?
When Royval fights to his potential, he’s as good as anyone at 125 pounds. What he struggles with is finding the right balance between his natural aggression and employing a more technical gameplan, which can lead to mixed results. He’s far more battle-tested than Taira though, an important factor to consider when a young fighter is being asked to take a step up in competition.
The name of the game for Taira should be working for takedowns, and rinsing and repeating that strategy until he’s frustrated Royval into submission. Taira has shown he can strike, but he won’t want to mess with Royval’s unpredictable power if he can help it. It’s time for Taira to show his all-around skills are worthy of a title opportunity.
We’re swinging big here and picking Taira to beat Royval via submission in Round 2.
Pick: Taira
Brad Tavares vs. Jun Yong Park
It’s the middleweight division’s Iron Man vs. “The Iron Turtle.”
No middleweight has made more UFC appearances than Brad Tavares, who has been with the organization since 2010. He’s the ultimate gamer, having lost to several elite names while still stringing together enough wins to keep himself employed. He won’t be intimidated in the slightest by Jun Yong Park.
This will be a back-and-forth battle for three rounds, neither fighter likely to connect with a telling blow that lets the judges toss their scorecards. Park has shown flashes of a spot in the rankings, but hasn’t done enough to cross that threshold just yet. To beat Tavares, he has to top the output of a veteran known for his non-stop activity.
When it comes to battles of attrition, Tavares often finds a way to do just enough to sway the scoring in his favor and I expect that to be the case Saturday as well. He times his entries to counter Park’s effective jab game, stuffs any takedown attempts, and outpoints Park to take a unanimous decision.
Pick: Tavares
Chidi Njokuani vs. Jared Gooden
Jared Gooden couldn’t have picked a worse time to miss weight.
In case you haven’t noticed, the latest season of Dana White’s Contender Series is wrapping soon and that means a little fall house-cleaning, as it were. So the last thing you want to be doing is messing around on the scale, especially when you don’t have the most spotless record.
Gooden is 1-1 in his second UFC stint (2-4 overall) and given this is the third time he’s missed weight in the promotion, there’s no nice way to put it: he’s fighting to stay on the roster here. That worst-case scenario could motivate him to a career-best performance when the bell rings, but the fact he missed weight in the first place should raise concerns as to his level of preparation.
His opponent Chidi Njokuani was once known for his inability to cut down to 170 pounds, but he made that weight for his most recent fight with Rhys McKee and following that split decision win he’s looking to prove he deserves bigger fights. His speed and striking have always made him an intriguing talent and as he approaches his 36th birthday, it’s now or never for him.
For now, he should handily out-strike Gooden and foil his attempts to take the fight to the ground. A focused Njokuani should end this via knockout in the first or second round.
Pick: Njokuani
Grant Dawson vs. Rafa Garcia
Listed generously at 5-foot-7, Rafa Garcia is used to being the low man whenever he enters the octagon, so I’m curious to see how he deals with the brawny Grant Dawson.
Garcia is strong as an ox and loves to throw looping hooks en route takedown attempts. He’s in tough against Dawson, a fellow grappler that will be tough to outwrestle. It’s entirely possible they neutralize each other’s wrestling, resulting in a standup battle I think Dawson wins.
True, we haven’t seen much of Dawson on the feet and what he have seen has been a work in progress, but he strikes me as someone who is still developing his striking, not someone who is incapable of it. His size and strength—and the harsh lessons learned in his loss to Bobby Green—should give him the advantage here. If Dawson can sprinkle in a few takedowns, all the better.
Garcia will make him work for it, but Dawson by decision.
Pick: Dawson
Daniel Rodriguez vs. Alex Morono
As mentioned above, the UFC is in a cutting mood, so let’s hope that doesn’t spell doom for the loser of Daniel Rodriguez vs. Alex Morono. Even though neither fighter is ever likely to compete for a world title, they still have a lot to offer.
They’ll get to show it in this matchup of two strikers, Rodriguez better known for his crafty and technical style, and Morono more prone to timely bursts of action. Neither man is likely to come out guns blazing, so expect this to come off as a high-level sparring match with a little blood sprinkled in. That’s the best you can ask for with these APEX cards, sometimes.
When he’s on, Rodriguez looks like a top-15 welterweight. I like his chances of channeling some of his prime form against Morono. It’s Rodriguez’s fight to lose and I see him winning the majority of exchanges over the course of three rounds to take a comfortable, if uneventful decision.
Pick: Rodriguez
Preliminaries
Ramazan Temirov def. CJ Vergara
Pat Sabatini def. Jonathan Pearce
Themba Gorimbo def. Niko Price
Cory McKenna def. Julia Polastri
Sean Sharaf def. Junior Tafa
Cody Haddon def. Dan Argueta
Lucas Rocha def. Clayton Carpenter
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