Drivers typically will walk a track the morning before they participate in practice to take a look at the surface.
For the race next Sunday at Charlotte Motor Speedway, some have already gone and walked the track.
Charlotte Motor Speedway changed the road course infield portion to where the main turn in the infield portion comes as the cars approach the crest of a hill, meaning their braking point is during an incline where they really can’t see what’s ahead of them in the turn.
Shortly after that blind turn, the next turn back to the oval portion of the track is a tighter one. The frontstretch chicane also is a little tighter.
“It’s set up for chaos, truthfully,” Denny Hamlin said. “I think that they were very strategic, making sure to put us to a decision what might be fast — the normal racing line will be fast, but there will be an option to short cut it and just wipe out whoever’s in front of you.
“Whatever reason would we have changed it other than to create more chaos and things like that? And I certainly think it’ll be that way.”
Why would NASCAR want chaos? Well, it is the elimination race of the second round of the Cup Series playoffs.
NASCAR’s version of the playoffs — where those outside the playoffs still compete each week as well — runs over the final 10 races of the season. The first three rounds consist of three races, and the four winless drivers in the round lowest in points are eliminated, setting up four drivers who are eligible for the title in the season finale at Phoenix with the driver who finishes the best (they don’t get stage points) crowned the champion.
In each round, the advancing drivers’ point totals are reset (2000 in the first round, 3000 in the quarterfinal round, 4000 in the semifinal round, 5000 for the championship) with the playoff points they earned during the season added to their total except for the championship race.
The tracks:
- Opening round: Atlanta (winner-Joey Logano), Watkins Glen (winner-Chris Buescher, not a playoff driver), Bristol (winner-Kyle Larson). Advanced: Logano, Larson, Austin Cindric, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman and Daniel Suarez. Eliminated from playoff contention: Ty Gibbs, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski and Harrison Burton.
- Quarterfinal round: Kansas (winner-Ross Chastain, not a playoff driver), Talladega (winner-Ricky Stenhouse Jr., not a playoff driver), Charlotte (road course). Advanced after two races: Byron on points.
- Semifinal round: Las Vegas (1.5-mile oval), Homestead (1.5-mile oval), Martinsville (0.526-mile oval).
- Championship: Phoenix (1-mile oval).
Here’s my playoff rankings based on best shot to win the title to the worst shot.
1. Kyle Larson (Last Week: 2)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 Chevrolet
Position: 3rd, +52 on the playoff cutoff
2023 Charlotte Road Course Finish: 13th
Larson is in the best shape he has been in the entire playoffs and needs just 16 points (21st if no stage points) no matter what anyone else does at Charlotte. He’s good enough at road courses that he should earn some stage points and possibly lock himself in before the end of Stage 2. Considering how bad he normally is at superspeedways, the fact that he finished fourth Sunday at Talladega is a good sign for what’s to come.
Prediction: Champion (no change)
2. William Byron (LW: 3)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet
Position: Advanced on points
2023 Charlotte Road Course Finish: 2nd
For all those worried about Byron’s summer slump, what are you going to worry about now? Byron has nothing to worry about at the Charlotte road course and he can already start concentrating on the next round. And he already knows he should be good at those tracks.
Prediction: Championship 4 but no title (no change)
3. Christopher Bell (LW: 1)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota
Position: 3rd, +57 on the playoff cutoff
2023 Charlotte Road Course Finish: 15th
Bell needs just 11 points (26th with no stage points) to advance no matter what anyone else does at Charlotte. That certainly is doable — he earned 15 points in the stages alone last year. His biggest challenge looking ahead will be the next round, where he has pulled off some wins in his career but has had frustrating finishes earlier this year at Las Vegas and Martinsville.
Prediction: Championship 4 but no title (no change)
4. Chase Elliott (LW: 4)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet
Position: 8th, +13 on the playoff cutoff
2023 Charlotte Road Course Finish: 9th
The pressure will be on Elliott to hold serve at the Charlotte road course, and there aren’t many places he’d rather go for him to do that. He was top 10 in both stages there last year and was ninth at the finish. He has two wins and four top-10 career finishes at the track. He should be OK as long as nothing crazy happens. The tough thing is crazy things do happen at that track.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (no change)
5. Ryan Blaney (LW: 5)
Team Penske No. 12 Ford
Position: 6th, +25 on playoff cutoff
2023 Charlotte Road Course Finish: 12th
Blaney left Talladega just three points worse than he entered as he left 25 points above the cutline — which isn’t a horrible thing considering he was wrecked out early. He can clinch at the Charlotte road course with 43 points but shouldn’t need that many. He was 12th there last year, one of only two races in his six starts at the track where he hasn’t finished in the top 10. The defending Cup champion just needs to shake the bad luck and he’ll be OK.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (no change)
6. Denny Hamlin (LW: 6)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota
Position: 4th, +30 on the playoff cutoff
2023 Charlotte Road Course Finish: 37th
Hamlin got a lucky break at Talladega, where he struggled so bad that he had lost the draft and missed the big wreck. He clinches at Charlotte with 38 points, and he is a solid road-course racer where even if he needs close to that many, he should be good. But hold on — his best finish this year in the four road-course races was 14th. If you’re a Hamlin fan, you should feel good and nervous all at the same time. You’re also probably used to that.
Prediction: Championship 4 but no title (change from eliminated in semifinal round)
7. Tyler Reddick (LW: 7)
23XI Racing No. 45 Toyota
Position: 7th, +14 on the playoff cutoff
2023 Charlotte Road Course Finish: 6th
Reddick has three top-10s (including two top-5s) in the four road-course races this year so he should feel good that he can perform at the high level he will need to at Charlotte. He was sixth there last year, leading 27 laps and finishing first and fourth in the stages. Is it possible to put the last five playoff races, though, out of his mind?
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (change from making Championship 4)
8. Alex Bowman (LW: 8)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 48 Chevrolet
Position: 5th, +26 on the playoff cutoff
2023 Charlotte Road Course Finish: 8th
Bowman won at the Chicago road course and he has two career top-5 finishes at the Charlotte road course, where he was eighth a year ago (but 19th and 18th in the stages). He can clinch with 42 points no matter what anyone else does. He shouldn’t need that much and just needs a good day. The way he is running in the playoffs, that shouldn’t be a problem.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (no change)
9. Joey Logano (LW: 9)
Team Penske No. 22 Ford
Position: 9th, -13 the playoff cutoff
2023 Charlotte Road Course Finish: 5th
Logano doesn’t have a top-10 on a road course this year but does have two top-5s and five top-10s at the Charlotte road course in his career. So which stat will mean more for the two-time Cup champion? One thing is for sure, he will be determined after a wreck at Talladega spoiled his chance to enter Charlotte with a buffer instead of needing to rally.
Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round (no change)
10. Austin Cindric (LW: 11)
Team Penske No. 2 Ford
Position: 11th, -29 on the playoff cutoff
2023 Charlotte Road Course Finish: 25th
Cindric is a road-course ace, but that hasn’t translated to the Charlotte road course, where he has not finished in the top 10 in his two starts. He didn’t earn stage points at the event last year, and he will need to earn plenty this year just to have a shot at the end. Talladega was the place for him to gain ground and the big wreck kept that from happening.
Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round (no change)
11. Chase Briscoe (LW: 12)
Stewart-Haas Racing No. 14 Ford
Position: 12th, -32 on the playoff cutoff
2023 Charlotte Road Course Finish: 28th
Briscoe is in pretty much a must-win situation and while he is decent on road courses, that will be a tall ask for him to accomplish next Sunday. He has one top-10 in four road-course races this year.
Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round (no change)
12. Daniel Suarez (LW: 10)
Trackhouse Racing No. 99 Chevrolet
Position: 10th, -20 on the playoff cutoff
2023 Charlotte Road Course Finish: 33rd
Suarez has no top-10s on road courses this year and no top-10s and an average finish of 27th at the Charlotte road course. So it would take a historically better-than-average performance for him to win or rally from the 20-point deficit to advance.
Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round (no change)
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Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
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