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Sebastien Ogier has crashed out of the Central European Rally on the penultimate stage, handing Ott Tanak a strong chance for a second World Rally Championship victory of the season.

Ogier was locked in an intense fight with Tanak for the victory, having lost his overnight rally lead to the Hyundai rival after overshooting a junction on stage 15, the first of four Sunday tests.

It left the eight-time world champion trailing Tanak by 1.9s, although Ogier was able to reduce the gap to 1.5s after stage 16. 

But Ogier’s fight for the victory soon came unstuck in spectacular fashion on stage 17, the second pass through Am Hochwald that had caught the Toyota driver out earlier this morning. 

Just six hundred metres into the stage Ogier drifted wide in a fast right-hander resulting in heavy impact with the trees that sent his GR Yaris across the road and into retirement.

Ogier and co-driver Vincent Landais emerged from incident unscathed but the former was clearly angered by the mistake.

The retirement looks set to hand Tanak a rally win and boost Hyundai’s hopes in the manufacturers’ title race with Ogier losing the provisional 18 points he accrued after leading the rally at the end of Saturday.

Tanak now leads the rally by 9.4s from Toyota’s Elfyn Evans with championship leader Thierry Neuville climbing to third, 40.8s adrift. The trio will now pick up 18, 15 and 13 Saturday points respectively if they can reach the end of the rally. 

Evans set the fastest time on stage 17 by a second from Tanak with Toyota’s Takamoto Katsuta third fastest, three seconds slower than Evans.

Katsuta headed the Super Sunday standings by 0.6s from Tanak and is on course to close the gap further on his championship leading team-mate Neuville, ensuring the title fight will be decided in Japan next month.

M-Sport’s Adrien Fourmaux sat in third [+1.1s} in the standings after enjoying far stronger run in his better handling Ford Puma, with Evans fourth and Neuville set to claim five points in fifth [+6.8s.]. 

The rally will conclude following this afternoon’s Power Stage. 

As he returned to winning ways in Formula 1’s 2024 United States Grand Prix sprint race, and was on course for proper pole at Austin, Red Bull’s Max Verstappen is the heavy favourite to score a fourth consecutive GP triumph here.

But, thanks to George Russell’s late Q3 crash, Verstappen’s title rival Lando Norris starts on pole for McLaren after producing “the best [lap] of my career” on what turned out to be the critical first runs in Q3.

However, it’s at Ferrari where the data indicates Verstappen’s most likely threat will come.
As we’ll show, the Scuderia isn’t just pleased to be in contention at a “normal” track, as Carlos Sainz put it in the post-qualifying press conference. It thinks it can win on Sunday at the Circuit of the Americas.

The qualifying ‘what ifs’ for Verstappen and Sainz

Russell’s wild crash at the penultimate corner on the final Q3 runs stopped any improvements, but there’s plenty of evidence to suggest Verstappen was set to topple Norris for pole on Saturday evening had that not happened.

First, Norris insisted “I kind of set the bar too high because, on my second lap, I was like, ‘guys, I don’t think I’m going to improve much here’”. This combines with how Verstappen was up by 0.172 seconds in sector one on their uncompleted laps.

But Norris had been a whopping 0.5s quicker in sector two on the first runs compared to Verstappen, so it may have been a closer run thing.

Russell’s crash masked the true picture from emerging in qualifying

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

Sainz too was somewhat ruing Russell’s crash, as he was “coming with a very fast lap” when the yellow flags appeared. “To be in the ballpark with these two guys, whether to beat them or not, I don’t know,” he added. “But, to be in the ballpark, it’s a bit of a shame.”

Sainz had indeed just gone only 0.151s slower than Verstappen through sector one with a personal best, but critically matched what Norris had achieved on his pole lap in sector one. Sainz later wondered if “it was a lower track temp” that made “the car come alive”.

Given how the McLarens had struggled to stop their rear tyres overheating in sector three – where Verstappen was able to pull away from Norris during their mid-sprint chase as his RB20 has the balance to allow him to “drive to what the car allows” – the falling temperatures as dusk rolled in would’ve boosted the MCL38s too.

The RB20 looked so compliant it appeared to be back to its F1-dominating best from early in 2024

But Norris nevertheless hailed how McLaren had “improved the car quite a bit” with its post-sprint set-up changes. This centres on how the team has “understood how to adapt to the wind”, per team principal Andrea Stella.

This was something that had left the Italian fearing Austin would be the track of the remaining six venues in the 2024 title run in where he had expected the MCL38 to “struggle most”.

Why Ferrari looks so strong in race trim, but must avoid its sprint friendly fire

Verstappen’s sprint victory was his first of any kind since he won the equivalent event at the Red Bull Ring back in June and it keeps up his undefeated streak of sprint wins this term. The RB20 looked so compliant it appeared to be back to its F1-dominating best from early in 2024.

Ferrari could provide Verstappen’s sternest threat, provided its drivers don’t delay each other

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

But the stopwatch tells a slightly different story – particularly on his margin of Austin sprint victory. This was just 3.9s yesterday, compared to 9.5s over Lewis Hamilton in the same sprint in 2023.

In the strong early Saturday heat afternoon this year, Verstappen produced a lap time average of 1m38.154s over the sprint’s last 14 tours. The reason for that count is because it’s the lap when Sainz finally got ahead of team-mate Charles Leclerc to run third behind Norris.

The Ferrari drivers were battling savagely in the early stages of the sprint but weren’t dropped by the leaders. Instead, Sainz was able to then catch and pass Norris on the final lap – where the Briton was nearly jumped by Leclerc but for his canny Turn 15 defence. This was bizarrely investigated post-race by the stewards given it was so obvious Norris would have to block there.

Sainz’s average once he’d cleared Leclerc in the sprint came in a miniscule 0.009s down on Verstappen. Leclerc, following closely in fourth in the sprint, was only a further 0.032s slower each time (his average is missing the final lap after the battle with Norris). This is what is so encouraging for Ferrari’s prospects in the main event.

While Sainz insisted he didn’t “agree” with suggestions his battle with Leclerc had cost Ferrari the chance to chase down Verstappen in the sprint, there can be no denying how the Pirellis hate temperature spikes – such as the ones on the SF-24s would’ve got from their battling. A case in point comes from the Mercedes squad that had such a disaster in qualifying at COTA, with Hamilton knocked out in Q1 and so even offering up his upgraded parts to go on Russell’s repaired machine. “But we’re not going to swap,” Russell added.

In the sprint, Russell himself looked to be a victory contender early on given how he scrapped with and saw off the Ferraris initially, and briefly challenged Norris at Turn 12. But he fell back to fifth and was 8.8s adrift of Leclerc by the finish. Hamilton was already well behind and facing the big gap to the Ferraris that his team-mate eventually fell into.

Mercedes drivers suffered in the sprint race after pushing their tyres too hard early on

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Mercedes insiders suggest this was a direct consequence of its drivers pushing too hard from the off on the mediums – for Russell in making his moves and later defending, for Hamilton in pushing just to keep up with the Ferrari drivers early on.

“The reality is that this weekend we’re in the fight,” Sainz replied when Motorsport.com asked how satisfied he and Ferrari are to be showing strongly on a very different track type to the Monza-Baku-Singapore run where it has historically shone in this rules era. “I couldn’t say the same of Zandvoort and Spa – the last normal tracks we’ve been to. Good positive progress.”

But Leclerc went further after he’d qualified fourth, claiming “if we see the same race pace as [Saturday] morning, for sure the [GP] race win is possible”.

Although history and his determined nature suggest otherwise, the Dutchman could yet decide that discretion is the better part of valour

Yet there are two big obstacles in Ferrari’s path. Taking Norris first – his sprint lap time average came in at 1m38.351s, which is 0.2s slower than Verstappen’s headline pace. But he spent all race in dirty air and knows “I don’t want to do it again” in terms of destroying his tyres. He said this was behind his sprint Turn 1 lock-up that let Sainz by to take second behind Verstappen.

But there were mitigating circumstances of sorts in how Norris’s mediums – like those on his Red Bull and Ferrari rivals – had been used in sprint qualifying. But his had done one extra lap on Friday night, which will have been a factor in the way they degraded as they did.

Clean air combined with that car set-up progress in dealing with the snaps coming from the strong wind means he may well be harder for Sainz and Leclerc to pass in the GP. Norris will also likely have to get aggressive at Turn 1 given how the uphill, sharp left-hander has had so much action in the past and Verstappen surely won’t be able to resist what could be a title-defining move for either contender if it results in contact.

It will be intriguing to see how Verstappen approaches the run to Turn 1 now he’s starting behind Norris

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

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But, although history and his determined nature suggest otherwise, the Dutchman could yet decide that discretion is the better part of valour. This is because his car has also changed since the sprint, which could well thwart Ferrari’s raised hopes.

Verstappen has been switched to one of Red Bull’s bigger rear wings, which explains that sector two, Q3 run one, time loss to Norris. Of this, Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko said: “We went for race set-up.”

Inevitably, this race will come down to a tyre management contest on what is expected to be an even hotter day compared to Saturday – given a predicted lack of cloud in the skies south-east of Austin.

That will likely make things worse for Mercedes, with the W15s continuing to struggle in hotter conditions, but overall it makes a two-stopper pretty much nailed on as this combines with a relatively low pitstop time loss of 20s.

Given how much the hards were used in FP1 – to Pirelli’s surprise, nine of the 10 teams put their drivers on it in that session – a medium-hard-medium is predicted by Pirelli to be the most likely strategy for the frontrunners. But Motorsport.com understands that many teams are relying on how in 2023 the best strategy was a medium-medium-hard approach. McLaren even reserved an extra set of hards and ended up deciding not to use them.

However, the major track resurfacing means lap times are around 2s faster and so it could be that there’s a tyre sting in the Texas sun for anyone expecting an exact replica to last year.

There are still plenty of unknowns heading into the main grand prix, even after Saturday’s sprint

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

Eric Cheung became World Champion by winning the Ferrari Coppa Shell AM Finals at the Autodromo Enzo e Dino Ferrari in Imola. The Formula Racing driver was grateful for the mistake made by Roland Hertner, the leader of the race who after having passed him, slid off the track while he was already comfortably in the lead.

Cheung got off to a great start from pole and immediately took the lead, but a few corners later, at Acque Minerali, Hertner launched his attack on the Formula Racing driver, passing him and immediately taking the lead.

In the early stages of the World Final, Hertner showed greater confidence on a track still wet from the torrential rains that fell on Imola yesterday. Cheung, on the other hand, seemed to suffer from the conditions, so much so that he ended up coming under pressure from Jan Sandmann (Kessel Racing).

The first three, at least in the first part of the race, immediately pulled out a gap of a few seconds to Zois Skrimpias (Ineco – Reparto Corse) in fourth. On the third lap, there was drama as Hertner, who was pulling away from Cheung and Sandmann, ended up off the track, and was forced to retire after getting stuck in the gravel.

Race Direction sent the Safety Car out to allow the track marshals to move Hertner’s 296 Challenge, which had stopped at Acque Minerali, and at that point, Cheung found himself once again leading the race ahead of Sandmann.

The Formula Racing driver started to push hard once the Safety Car had returned to the pits to try to build a good margin on Sandmann and Skrimpias, his direct pursuers. The mission was perfectly accomplished, because the two rivals began to progressively lose ground.

In the final part of the race, however, Sandmann broke the ice and gradually started to get closer to Cheung, at the same time breaking free from Skrimpias, who was now in third place. The Kessel Racing driver increased the pace, taking advantage of a much drier track than in the initial stages.

In four laps Sandmann managed to catch Cheung, but with just one minute of racing and an extra lap left, the race leader managed to cross the finish line first, with a margin of only two-tenths of a second over his rival. Skrimpias completed the podium after a solo race, while Henrik Kamstrup and Andreas Koenig wrapped up the Top 5.

Norikazu Shibata, with another solo race in sixth, preceded Shintaro Akatsu and Hassan Dabboussi, both fighting for seventh place, which however ended up in the hands of the Ineco driver. Andrea Levy and Stephen Earle completed the Top 10.

Ferrari World Finals – Coppa Shell AM – Final classification

A rare mistake from Sebastien Ogier has handed the Central European Rally lead to Hyundai’s Ott Tanak while World Rally Championship Rally1 rookie Sami Pajari rolled on Sunday morning. 

Ogier started the final day of the rally with a 5.2s margin over Tanak but a lock up approaching a left-hander at the start of a bone dry but dirty stage 15 (Am Hochwald 12.17km) proved costly. 

The eight-time world champion’s Toyota GR Yaris, last to start the stage, ran off the road onto grass before eventually rejoining the stage, which cost him valuable seconds. 

Ogier reached the stage end 7.1s slower than Tanak, handing the Hyundai driver the rally lead by 1.9s.

“There was a lock-up for us and we went straight. All okay, it is the way it is,” said Ogier when asked about he incident. 

The stage proved to be particularly tricky for the later runners as gravel and dirt had been dragged onto the surface after several anti-cut devices had been removed. 

Tanak described the test as having “dirty surprises” and “very challenging” as he ultimately completed the test 3.8s slower than the pace set by the returning M-Sport-Ford driver Adrien Fourmaux, who was first on the road.     

Sébastien Ogier, Vincent Landais, Toyota Gazoo Racing WRT Toyota GR Yaris Rally1

Photo by: Toyota Racing

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Evans was second fastest on the stage to maintain third position overall. Toyota team-mate Takamoto Katsuta was fourth quickest while Neuville was 0.2s faster than rival Tanak, although clearly frustrated by the lack of anti-cut devices. 

“If I see the conditions in there, I don’t want to push too much, there are many surprises,” said Neuville.  

“I had a big slide immediately in the beginning. All the anti-cuts have moved and some have been removed, it’s not nice. They are moved by just a tiny bit and the road is dirty.”

The challenging stage conditions were highlighted by Pajari, who rolled out of sixth position overall. 

The Finn, making his third Rally1 outing and his first on asphalt, ran wide at a medium-left corner running into a ditch that pitched his GR Yaris into a roll. The car eventually came to rest on its wheels but with damage to the front and rear of the car, which ended his rally prematurely.   

“It was so fast I don’t really know what happened. It is clear to see we went a bit wide on a corner and we rolled quite softly. The damage is not so bad on the car so maybe we could continue, but we don’t want to cause any more damage,” said Pajari.

“It is quite a shame as it was quite a soft roll but I don’t know why it happened because in my opinion my pacenote was okay and there was nothing really surprising at that corner, so I don’t know why.”

The crews will tackle three more stages on Sunday.