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NASCAR has yet to review the radio communications from the closing laps of Sunday’s race (they intend to do so in the week ahead). And while Ryan Blaney drove off with the race win, strange things were happening throughout the field as Chevy and Toyota grappled for the final spot in the Championship 4. If we break down the communications ourselves though, it’s clear that manufacturer loyalty played a crucial role in what transpired at Martinsville Speedway on Sunday.

Setting the ‘final’ stage

When the final restart came with 87 laps to go, Christopher Bell was trapped a lap down and unable to make any forward progress from 19th. He was three points behind William Byron for the final transfer spot. Up front, Kyle Larson was leading the race and in the Championship 4 — until his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott took the lead for himself with 25 laps to go. But it was all for naught as reigning NASCAR Cup champ Ryan Blaney passed them both in the laps that followed.

None of that changed the situation for Bell and Byron who were in a constant struggle for that final transfer spot. When Austin Cindric and Denny Hamlin managed to pass Byron and the margin was suddenly a single point. The math was simple: One position is one point. With 12 laps left, the bleeding suddenly stopped for the No. 24 Hendrick Chevrolet (Byron) as fellow Chevy driver Austin Dillon pulled up to his rear bumper. 

Now for a closer look at what the late-race radio communications between manufacturer allies reveals about this controversial finish that decided the Championship 4.

Dillon rides behind the #24

Before the race even began, the No. 3 Chevy radio of Dillon openly mentioned being cognizant of the Hendrick playoff drivers. That’s not unusual in these playoff races, but as Dillon was catching Byron in the closing laps, they made it clear that there was only one priority — protect Byron.

“The 24 is only two points to the good right now and there’s two spots between them,” crew chief Justin Alexander explained to spotter Brandon Benesch. He then told Dillon about the points situation, and Alexander quickly added: “If we pass him, he’ll be out.”

Dillon wanted to know who Byron was racing and they flatly told him: “He just can’t give up spots.” 

Does Chastain know the deal?

As Chastain in the No. 1 Chevrolet rapidly closed, pulling alongside Dillon, the radio became more interesting. “Does he know the deal?” asked the No. 3 crew chief. Atop the spotter’s stand, Benesch replied: “I’m trying to tell him. Justin can you tell the crew chief?”

With 12 laps to go, the same question lit up the radio again — but with more urgency — as Chastain pulled alongside Dillon. “Does the 1 crew chief know the deal?” asked Benesch. “Yeah he should,” replied Alexander, but he didn’t sound fully sure.

Things were much quieter on Chastain’s radio. Spotter Brandon McReynolds informed him of the points situation. However, there was a moment when the always-aggressive Chastain still got to the outside of Byron with seven laps to go. His spotter quickly keyed the mic: “Nice and smart with the 24 here down there.” Chastain did not reply, but never pulled alongside Byron again.

Dillon and Chastain ran side-by-side for most of the final 10 laps, moving like a rolling roadblock that made it impossible for anyone else to get near the No. 24 car. Right behind them, the field was stacking up with Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Carson Hocevar all packed tightly together.

Wallace: “God forbid we don’t help a f****** JGR car”

While Byron could not afford to lose a single spot, Bell was desperate to gain just one. He knew he would win any tiebreakers, courtesy of his runner-up finish at Las Vegas two weeks prior.

“God forbid if we don’t help a f****** JGR car,” radioed Bubba Wallace while riding around in 18th place. Crew chief Bootie Barker instructed spotter Freddie Kraft to tell Wallace where the No. 20 of Bell was on track. “Relay it to him,” said Barker. “10-4, I will. 24 is half a straightaway behind us,” answered Kraft.

They continued to give Wallace updates on Bell’s whereabouts and with 10 laps to go, he was told about the points situation. With five laps left, something happened to the No. 23 Toyota. Entering Turn 3, Wallace went up out of the groove. “I think I’ve got a tire going down,” said Wallace. Barker told the spotter to inform Wallace that his teammate, Tyler Reddick, “had a fire” in an issue that put him out of the race earlier. This might have been a way to try to connect the issue to whatever was happening to the No. 23.

Slowing down just enough

On Lap 495 of 500, Wallace’s times abruptly fell off and he ran a full second slower than the previous lap. He gained about half-a-second of that back the next lap before abruptly falling off again. Bell was gaining about a second per lap now. The car kept driving up into the marbles, slowing down as his lap times fluctuated wildly. 

Coming to the white flag, he got in the way of the Byron group and there was a tense three-wide moment with Chastain and Dillon. Chastain even ran into the back of Byron. Wallace slowed down enough that Bell caught him just as the field entered the final corner on the final lap.

Bell entered Turn 3 deep and flew by Wallace, but hit the wall as he slid up the track. At that point, he proceeded to put the throttle down, riding the wall to the finish line. He didn’t gain any additional spots by doing that. It also looked like a slower, similar version of Chastain’s now-banned wall-ride move from two years ago.

Wallace’s final lap was over three seconds off the pace and 2.3 seconds slower than his previous lap. Bell got the point he needed — he was in the Championship 4 — for 27 minutes.

On the cool-down lap, the team asked if Wallace needed a fire extinguisher, again connecting it to the issue that put Reddick out of the race earlier.

“I’m okay, I think,” replied Wallace.

“Tire looked up,” observed Kraft. “Looked just like s*** the last couple laps there. Just be careful getting in here. May be on fire like the No. 45.” It was not on fire.

In the background, Bell and Byron emerged from their cars but no one was celebrated. NASCAR immediately moved to review the finish, without taking into account the assists from Byron’s fellow Chevys or the Toyota of Wallace. Instead, they focused on the wall ride. Although Bell did not gain any spots from it, NASCAR deemed it to be a safety violation, and in a shocking twist, removed Bell from the Championship 4 while Byron was reinstated. Officials also informed Joe Gibbs Racing that they have no right to appeal.

When NASCAR does get to reviewing the comms this week, the conclusion still won’t change the final four drivers, but the 1, 3, and 23 teams could see penalties, similarly to what happened two years ago when Cole Custer slowed on the final lap to help Stewart-Haas Racing teammate Chase Briscoe advance into the Round of 8. NASCAR fined Custer $100,000, suspended his crew chief, and docked the team 50 points.

“When you win 10 grands prix and you are still 24 points behind, something is wrong.”

Complaints about a format by a competitor who has failed to master that format must always be read with due caution. They are to be expected. But Francesco Bagnaia may just have a point when it comes to the influence of sprint races on the 2024 MotoGP title battle.

To recap the situation heading into the final round, Bagnaia comes into the Barcelona weekend as a long shot despite having won 10 grands prix to the three triumphs of points leader Jorge Martin. The Spaniard’s advantage can be traced to his seven wins in MotoGP’s sprint races as well as numerous falls for Bagnaia on Saturdays.

To be clear, Bagnaia is making no excuses for his sprint travails. He is honest about those to the point where you have to take his “something is wrong” statement as a little more than sour grapes.

“Jorge was just better on Saturdays this season and we have to say he did a really good job there,” said Bagnaia following his latest Saturday fall in Malaysia. He is also happy to tip his hat to Martin’s ability to find pace with limited or zero preparation time.

“Yesterday Jorge just went straight on track and did a 1m56.996s, just like that,” said Bagnaia with a snap of the fingers as he reflected on Martin’s record-breaking first run in Q2 at Sepang. “The speed with which he can adapt [to set a quick time] is something unbelievable.”

Bagnaia celebrated his 10th Grand Prix victory of the year in Malaysia on Sunday, but it followed another sprint disappointment that edged Martin closer to the crown

Photo by: Dorna

Given that the sprints come earlier in the weekend, when Bagnaia is usually still fine-tuning his package, this phenomenon has been an important factor in Martin’s Saturday points hauls. For one so realistic about the balance of power in the sprints, Bagnaia could arguably have avoided his current situation simply by taking a damage-limitation approach on Saturdays.

With the benefit of hindsight, he would certainly have settled for a few seconds and thirds instead of falling off. But his biggest losses came early in the season, when the picture – including his edge on Sundays – wasn’t quite so clear.

But with all of that said, for 73 of MotoGP’s 75 years, worrying about how to handle sprints was not a skill Bagnaia would have had to master. Winning grands prix – and the occasional TT in the Netherlands or the Isle of Man – was always what earned you world titles. That is a fundamental part of the heritage MotoGP celebrated with such pride at Silverstone this year. There is an argument that the sprints have been a slap in the face to that heritage since they arrived in 2023.

Should Bagnaia win in Barcelona, he’ll have won 55% of this year’s Sunday races, still a shade behind the lowest percentage in the 10+ club

Just to put Bagnaia’s 10 grand prix wins in perspective, the other riders to have won 10 in a season in the top class – some of them multiple times – are Giacomo Agostini, Mick Doohan, Valentino Rossi, Casey Stoner and Marc Marquez. All of them went on to win the world championship in the seasons in question.

Before we erupt in outrage on Bagnaia’s behalf, though, note that in percentage terms Bagnaia hasn’t quite reached the level of his predecessors. Even disregarding sprints, there are more grands prix per season now than for any of those riders. In 1968, in fact, there were only 10 races and Agostini had a 100% record.

Should Bagnaia win in Barcelona, he’ll have won 55% of this year’s Sunday races, still a shade behind the lowest percentage in the 10+ club. That was Stoner’s 2007 effort, when he won 10 of 18 races at 55.56%.

Let’s factor in the sprints, just for fun. Despite all the focus on the points he has thrown away in that department, Bagnaia has still won six of them. That’s only one fewer than Martin, which does rather call into question the popular notion that the Spaniard is indisputably the fastest man on Saturdays.

Mistakes at costly times in sprints have hurt Bagnaia’s title prospects

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

It gives Bagnaia a total of 16 wins for the season, out of a possible 38 so far: that’s 42.1%. The Italian’s defenders will happily note that Martin’s seven sprints and three grands prix add up to an overall winning percentage of 26.32%.

You can play with these statistics all the way to Christmas, speculating about what might have been when we take other finishes and retirements into account. I’m going to stop now. The system is what it is, and while Bagnaia has done more winning by any measure, he has simply given away too many points – mostly on Saturdays.

The question is whether those Saturday mistakes have been accorded too much worth. Or, if you prefer, whether grand prix Sundays should be worth more – as per MotoGP heritage.

Well, firstly, it’s in the name. If you know any French at all, you’ll know that the grand prix of any country (or region or city) is supposed to be the big prize. It came with the definite article: le grand prix. There was only one. Semantics aside, a longer race brings tyre management into play – a skill many might feel a champion should have in their portfolio. Flat-out sprints don’t test that.

So let’s say something is indeed “wrong” with the system. What to do with the Saturday sprints?

Introduced to MotoGP two years after they appeared in Formula 1 in 2021, the extreme position would be to dismiss them entirely as an unnecessary attempt to copy what the four-wheelers were doing.

Statisticians and many media might be thankful for that, as sprints have given rise to all sorts of complications around records, statistics and choice of wording. Does ‘race’ mean grands prix only, for example? Does ‘Malaysian Grand Prix’ refer to the entire weekend or only the Sunday race? More importantly, could these questions confuse and alienate fans who have better things to do than dig around for definitions?

Another thing that might need a little audience research: could some fans walk away after being asked to invest Saturdays and Sundays in following the racing – and on an ever-growing number of weekends? Is there such a thing as too much? Most regular folk have lives outside of motorsport, a fact that decision-makers living in all-consuming paddocks might want to consider.

Most recent Grand Prix win came for Martin, who has proven to be a specialist in the shorter races to top up his tally

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

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On the other hand, Saturday sprints can only be an attraction for those weighing up weekend passes to attend races. You have to assume that they help sell such tickets, which is certainly an argument against scrapping them entirely.

A more realistic approach could be to go all-in on copying F1. MotoGP has differentiated itself by running sprints at every single round while F1 stages them only at selected events. In the first two years of F1 sprints, there were only three ‘sprint weekends’. That has grown to six in 2023 and 2024 – exactly a quarter of the race weekends in this year’s case.

Under this model, sprints are seen as a special bonus that doesn’t detract from the main narrative. They can always be rotated between venues, or alternatively reserved for historic, blue-riband circuits like Jerez, Silverstone or Assen.

There’s a danger that pragmatic engineers would opt to treat non-points sprints as additional practice sessions

Another way to reduce the sprints’ impact on the championship would be to revisit the points system. Again, MotoGP could follow F1’s lead here. Under the current F1 weighting, a sprint win gets you eight points. That’s less than a third of the 25 points a grand prix victory earns.

MotoGP also offers grand prix winners 25, but every time somebody wins a sprint, they walk away with almost half that. Should a sprint win really be worth 12 points?

Another option could be to run the sprints but exclude them from the championship entirely. That way, you could still sell tickets for Saturdays and offer ‘content’ for hardcore fans who can’t get enough while sending the rest a clear message that these races are a non-essential bonus. An exhibition, if you like.

A short race in which there is nothing to lose seems like a fun solution on paper. And if they get a cracking show, it’s hard to imagine those ticket-holders complaining that it didn’t count for a championship.

Options exist to change up the sprint format, but it is a popular draw for fans looking to buy weekend passes

Photo by: Marc Fleury

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But would teams get into the spirit of it, with no points at stake? There’s a danger that pragmatic engineers would opt to treat non-points sprints as additional practice sessions. It’s probably best to proceed with this idea only after extensive consultation with the competitors.

Another variant would be to add something like a ‘Sprint Cup’ to MotoGP’s extensive array of championships. That way, there would still be something bigger to fight for. It would be something a manufacturer’s marketing department could fix their attention on if it doesn’t quite work out at world championship grand prix level. That may have its commercial appeal.

After two years of the sprint format experiment, there is no shame in revisiting it. Bagnaia is unlikely to be the only person who thinks something is a little out of balance under the current model. And, as we’ve seen, there are alternatives.

Let’s remember that Bagnaia is among the smartest and most analytical personalities on the grid. He is also a true, fair sportsman who will graciously offer his hand in defeat, no matter what the format. He may have a particular bias when he says something is “wrong”, but his words are carefully considered and are not spoken in the heat of a moment. Perhaps MotoGP’s powers-that-be ought to pay them due attention.

Will Bagnaia’s sprint protestations fall on deaf ears?

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

“Nada ultrapassa essa emoção,” is the slogan greeting fans at Interlagos’ entrances. Nothing surpasses this emotion.

Walk through the tunnels underneath the Autodromo Carlos Pace and it’s obvious why. The bowl-shaped venue in the middle of Sao Paulo’s bustling metropolis is one of motor racing’s most revered cathedrals, its ancient grandstands steeped in history.

Ayrton Senna memorials in the grandstands

Photo by: Andrew Ferraro / Motorsport Images

The event posters lining the entrance tunnels date all the way back to the inaugural race in 1972, timeless reminders of the many title deciders Interlagos has hosted and the home wins that propelled the popularity of legendary world champions like Emerson Fittipaldi, Nelson Piquet and Ayrton Senna.

Naturally the late Senna is still revered like a deity, with his trademark blue Nacional caps sported by throngs of Brazil’s passionate fans. A giant mural of the three-time World Champion adorns the main paddock building, while Sebastian Vettel travelled to the event to host a tribute and Lewis Hamilton performed an emotional demo in his hero’s 1990 McLaren, which he said was the “greatest honour” of his life.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes, 1st position, celebrates with a Brazilian flag on the podium

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Something is missing

Following a long-standing streak of Brazilians on the grid, the country’s last full-time F1 driver Felipe Massa is yet to find a successor after his retirement at the end of 2017. The 2018 season was the first in 48 years without a Brazilian, with just two cameos by Fittipaldi’s grandson, Pietro (Fittipaldi), since then.

Brazilians haven’t been able to transfer all their energy and ’emoção’ onto a home hero for seven years, instead adopting Senna apostle Hamilton as one of their own, the seven-time world champion being awarded honorary Brazilian citizenship in 2022.

That void was even more striking this weekend while thousands of Argentinians flocked to their neighboring country to cheer on Williams sensation Franco Colapinto. The 2024 edition had been largely sold out for a while, but Colapinto fans still managed to find tickets on the resale market to watch the 21-year-old at the closest they have to a home race at the moment.

The Argentinian’s arrival has led to a surge of interest in South America, but F1 fans from the only country in the continent actually hosting a race can only watch on with envy for now, with hopes that F2 title protagonist Gabriel Bortoleto can break that streak next year if he is signed by Sauber, as is now widely expected.

An emotional Felipe Massa proudly slaps the Prancing Horse insignia on his chest as he celebrates victory and a well fought season in front of his home fans.

Photo by: Rainer W. Schlegelmilch / Motorsport Images

Brazil, what took you so long?

But why has it taken so long for Massa to have a successor? The former Ferrari driver suggests a rough patch at grassroots level is a large part of the explanation. “Unfortunately, it’s taking really so long to have another Brazilian in Formula 1 and it’s very difficult to say why,” Massa, a two-time winner of his home grand prix, told Motorsport.com.

“We didn’t have any category in the past like Formula 4 and maybe the base of Brazil was not so strong as compared to the past. When I was racing in Europe in Formula Renault, in every category we had a Brazilian winning races, fighting for the championship. And now it’s difficult to have the same results as we had in the past. But in the last three years things have been changing. We have some good Brazilians around and I hope to see Bortoleto in F1 soon.

“The most important thing is that kids need to go to Europe at the right time when they are ready, with some experience in cars here in Brazil. That’s why Brazil needed to have a good [single-seater] category and now we have Formula 4 [which supported the F1 weekend]. It’s becoming more competitive year by year and that’s very important.”

Oscar Piastri, McLaren F1 Team, 2nd position, Lando Norris, McLaren F1 Team, 1st position, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, 3rd position, receive their Sprint trophies from Emerson Fittipaldi

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

Two-time F1 World Champion Emerson Fittipaldi, who was in attendance at his home race as a McLaren ambassador, concurred with Massa that everything starts at the bottom. “The base of motorsports, karting, is very important,” he told Motorsport.com. “And the Brazilian federation is currently encouraging karting in Brazil. I’m sure new talents will emerge, but there was a lack of encouragement at the grassroots level in Brazil.

“When you’re already in Formula 1, it’s easy for sponsors to appear. But it’s very difficult for the drivers to get there. So, we need more support at the grassroots level and the new president of the confederation, Giovanni Guerra, is doing that. He’s doing a great job.

“But we need even more support. The biggest example of this is Telmex [in Mexico], which is why we have Sergio Perez. Colapinto joined now, but in the last five years we only had one driver from Latin America.”

Lewis Hamilton delights the Brazilian fans with a drive in Ayrton Senna’s 1990 McLaren MP4/5B.

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

“Finding sponsors has never been easy…”

Brazil is the world’s seventh largest economy by GDP but is also suffering from huge inequality and a relatively volatile currency. The former is already making the costs of entry-level karting a serious stumbling block for a large part of the talent pool. The latter isn’t helping Brazilian sponsors fund drivers once they start competing overseas and enter the feeder system into F1 or IndyCar.

“Finding sponsors has never been easy for Brazilian drivers,” said Massa. “In my time, it was so difficult to find sponsors, but also it was a bit cheaper than it is now, which might make the situation even more difficult.”

IndyCar has seen a similar Brazilian void compared to F1, with the successful generation of Helio Castroneves, the late Gil de Ferran and Tony Kanaan, combining for a total of six Indianapolis 500 wins, never truly replaced.

“The currency, the dollar to real exchange is really bad for getting sponsors to invest,” Kanaan explained to Motorsport.com. “It’s six to one, so if you have to invest a million US dollars, it’s six million of our money. That is definitely not helping.

“The Brazilian motorsports scene is healthy for sure and since Massa it’s very recognised, but obviously we’re lacking an F1 driver right now. We still had some in IndyCar, but aside from the currency you also have to be in the right place at the right time to be able to be competitive and win races.

Gabriel Bortoleto, Invicta Racing

Photo by: Invicta Virtuosi Racing

“We do have a couple good guys, like [Aston Martin reserve] Felipe Drugovich that has been waiting forever, and also Bortoleto now, but the timing has been bad.”

Kanaan said it would be unrealistic to expect Brazil’s glory days in F1 to return, but he’s still optimistic over the country’s long-term future in international single-seater racing.

“I think we’re never going to have a Senna again, the same way I think [Germany] is never going to have a Michael Schumacher, and the same way they’re not going to find another Lewis Hamilton or Max Verstappen,” he said.

“But eventually, I think we’ll come back. Motorsports is still extremely popular in Brazil. Not just F1 but also IndyCar.”

Kanaan, Massa and Fittipaldi have all been impressed by McLaren junior Bortoleto, who is well placed to finally return the Brazilian flag to the starting grid, being on the verge of a Sauber deal for 2025.

“I hope he gets into F1,” Fittipaldi said. “We’re rooting for him. He’s very talented and very capable, an excellent driver.”

Massa added: “Gabriel did an amazing job winning Formula 3 in the first year, maybe winning Formula 2 in the first year. This is definitely something that we haven’t seen lately with a Brazilian driver. It will be really positive to have a strong Brazilian in Formula 1 for a long time, raising our Brazilian flag. I’m supporting him a lot.”

If Bortoleto does make it onto the grid next year, the wait will finally be over and Brazilian fans will no longer have to envy their Argentinian rivals.

Finding a way to have both South American countries represented on the grid would be a boost to Formula 1 at large. But most importantly, it will complete the missing piece of the puzzle to bring the “emoção” of one of its marquee events to an even higher level.

Additional reporting by Joey Barnes

Lewis Hamilton revealed he cannot wait for Christmas in what is a telling summary of his final Formula 1 season with Mercedes.

At the start of the year, Hamilton informed boss Toto Wolff of his decision to terminate his deal with the Silver Arrows to join Ferrari for 2025.

However, the Briton made it clear he wanted to end his tenure at Mercedes, which he joined in 2013 from McLaren, with a bang.

He achieved that by winning the British Grand Prix in July before taking victory in Spa-Francorchamps later that month.

However, his fourth-place finish in Mexico was juxtaposed by a retirement in Austin and 10th in Sao Paulo, where his Mercedes struggled on the resurfaced, bumpy asphalt.

And now the 39-year-old cannot wait for this season to be over before he starts the new campaign with Ferrari next year.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes-AMG

Photo by: Erik Junius

When asked by Motorsport.com about his disappointment, Hamilton said: “I just put my focus on something else. I’m not fighting for the championship. Doesn’t matter, really, where we finish in the championship.

“I don’t care if I finish ahead of [team-mate] George [Russell] or behind George. It doesn’t make any difference to me. I just want to keep the car out the wall and try to score points if I can for the team, if I can finish, whatever.

“If they give me a car that doesn’t bounce off the track in the next few races, then hopefully we can get a better result. But yeah, looking forward to Christmas.”

Hamilton was asked to identify whether the bouncing problems, which caused him considerable back pain all week in Brazil, were because of Mercedes’ low ride height or because of the bumpy track surface.

He responded: “Both, but I think mostly because the car, just something that’s not right. Qualifying was bad. Sprint race was bad. The car’s just been bad all weekend. 

“Obviously, it’s devastating to have these bad races in the second half of the season – but all I can say is, we’re trying.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes F1 W15

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

“We’re coming into the weekends, but it’s definitely not acceptable. It’s definitely not good enough and we have to take accountability. I have to take accountability, but I am doing the best with what I’ve got. 

“The car has been the worst this weekend and I don’t know what it is. We’re going to have to find out what it is.”

When quizzed why his car swings from good to bad a weekend at a time, Hamilton joked: “You tell me. That’s the million-dollar question. If you can find it. I’ll give you a million dollars!”

Bob Pockrass

FOX NASCAR Insider

Until last year, the winner of the championship race was one of the four drivers eligible for the NASCAR Cup Series title.

Last year, Ross Chastain won the season finale while not one of the Championship 4 as Ryan Blaney finished second on his way to the championship on the 1-mile Phoenix oval.

Blaney is back to defend his title this year after a walk-off moment Sunday at Martinsville Speedway vaulted him into the Championship 4. The four drivers who race at Phoenix (among the rest of the non-championship eligible drivers) with the best of those four being crowned the champion.

All four of the drivers this year — Blaney, Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick and William Byron — have three wins apiece. None have led more than 600 laps this year.

The three drivers who combined to lead 3,632 laps (nearly 40 percent) — Kyle Larson (six wins), Christopher Bell (three wins) and Denny Hamlin (three wins) — were all eliminated at Martinsville, leaving this championship even more wide open.

“I never look at favorites when it gets to the Champ 4 because everyone is there for a reason, and all teams are really fast,” Blaney said. “They can be fast no matter what, any given weekend, any given track.”

Here’s a breakdown of the four drivers with analysis of why each can win the title — and why each won’t. They are listed in order of car number: 

Ryan Blaney, Team Penske No. 12 Ford

2024 season: 3 wins (Iowa, Pocono, Martinsville-2), 11 top-5s, 1 pole, 555 laps led

Next Gen Phoenix finishes: Mar2024-5th; Nov2023-2nd; Mar2023-2nd; Nov2022-2nd; Mar2022-4th

Championship 4 experience: 2nd appearance. 2023-Finished 1st

Why Blaney Will Win: He did it before and he can do it again. Last year, Blaney used a Martinsville victory to propel him into the championship and he has completed one-half of that equation this year. Even bigger is that his Martinsville victory came a week after Reddick passed him on the final lap at Homestead. And look at those finishes at Phoenix. He has led more laps in the Next Gen car than any other driver at Phoenix, and he already has two wins this year at tracks 1-mile or shorter.

Why Blaney Won’t Win: No driver has gone back-to-back in the playoff elimination area (which started in 2014); the last driver to defend his title was Jimmie Johnson, who won five consecutive championships from 2006-2010. And which Blaney will be racing at the finish? The driver who saw that win slip away at Homestead or the driver who triumphed at Martinsville?

Joey Logano, Team Penske No. 22 Ford

2024 season: 3 wins (Nashville, Atlanta-2, Veags-2), 6 top-5s, 3 poles, 307 laps led

Next Gen Phoenix finishes: Mar2024-34th; Nov2023-18th; Mar2023-11th; Nov2022-1st; Mar2022-8th

Championship 4 history: 6th appearance. 2014-Finished 4th, 2016-2nd, 2018-1st, 2020-3rd, 2022-1st

Why Logano Will Win: Logano has been on cruise control the past two weeks as he won at Las Vegas and didn’t have to worry about his Homestead and Martinsville finishes. He’s had no pressure. He’ll be fresh. And then there’s that even-year thing — this is his sixth championship appearance, with them all coming in even years. But, seriously, the dude seems to perform best when it matters most. And he hates to lose.

Why Logano Won’t Win: If Logano didn’t already have two Cup titles, he would be totally counted out already. He finished 15th in the regular-season points. He won a five-overtime race at Nashville just to get into the playoffs. He won a drafting race at Atlanta and then used a fuel-mileage strategy to win at Las Vegas. Of any of the drivers in the Champ 4, he’d be the hardest sell as having a “championship” year. You know what? He doesn’t care.

William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet

2024 season: 3 wins (Daytona-1, Austin, Martinsville-1), 12 top-5s, 1 pole, 338 laps led

Next Gen Phoenix finishes: Mar2024-18th; Nov2023-4th; Mar2023-1st; Nov2022-6th; Mar2022-18th

Championship 4 history: 2nd appearance. 2023-Finished 3rd

Why Byron Will Win: Byron has run the most laps in the Next Gen car at Phoenix in the top-5 than any other driver. And it’s not even close as he has run in the top-5 for 1,058 laps — the next best among these four is Blaney (749). Byron won there in March 2023 and he seems comfortable there. He is the only Hendrick driver to make it to the championship round, so he’ll have a full effort from that organization.

Why Byron Won’t Win: While he has run in the top 5 for 1,058 laps in the Next Gen car at Phoenix, only 171 of those laps were actually in the lead. He hasn’t won since April as he carries a 27-race winless streak into the championship race. He knows he’ll be very good. The problem is he doesn’t know if he’ll be great.

Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing No. 45 Toyota

2024 season: 3 wins (Talladega-1, Michigan, Homestead), 12 top-5s, 3 poles, 597 laps led

Next Gen Phoenix finishes: Mar2024-10th; Nov2023-22nd; Mar2023-3rd; Nov2022-23rd; Mar2022-3rd

Championship 4 history: 1st appearance

Why Reddick Will Win: Reddick has led more laps this year than any other driver in the Champ 4. He was the regular-season champion and has shown the ability to gut out good runs when he needs them the most. Plus, he will probably have co-owner Michael Jordan there rooting him on. No pressure. 

Why Reddick Won’t Win: This will be Reddick’s first trip to the Champ 4 as well as the first trip for his crew chief, Billy Scott. Reddick did win two Xfinity titles in this format, but Cup is a different level. Phoenix is not one of his better tracks and all of his wins this year have come at tracks 1.5 miles in length or greater.

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.

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