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What the Austin sprint race and qualifying tells us about the 2024 F1 US GP

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As he returned to winning ways in Formula 1’s 2024 United States Grand Prix sprint race, and was on course for proper pole at Austin, Red Bull’s Max Verstappen is the heavy favourite to score a fourth consecutive GP triumph here.

But, thanks to George Russell’s late Q3 crash, Verstappen’s title rival Lando Norris starts on pole for McLaren after producing “the best [lap] of my career” on what turned out to be the critical first runs in Q3.

However, it’s at Ferrari where the data indicates Verstappen’s most likely threat will come.
As we’ll show, the Scuderia isn’t just pleased to be in contention at a “normal” track, as Carlos Sainz put it in the post-qualifying press conference. It thinks it can win on Sunday at the Circuit of the Americas.

The qualifying ‘what ifs’ for Verstappen and Sainz

Russell’s wild crash at the penultimate corner on the final Q3 runs stopped any improvements, but there’s plenty of evidence to suggest Verstappen was set to topple Norris for pole on Saturday evening had that not happened.

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First, Norris insisted “I kind of set the bar too high because, on my second lap, I was like, ‘guys, I don’t think I’m going to improve much here’”. This combines with how Verstappen was up by 0.172 seconds in sector one on their uncompleted laps.

But Norris had been a whopping 0.5s quicker in sector two on the first runs compared to Verstappen, so it may have been a closer run thing.

Russell's crash masked the true picture from emerging in qualifying

Russell’s crash masked the true picture from emerging in qualifying

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

Sainz too was somewhat ruing Russell’s crash, as he was “coming with a very fast lap” when the yellow flags appeared. “To be in the ballpark with these two guys, whether to beat them or not, I don’t know,” he added. “But, to be in the ballpark, it’s a bit of a shame.”

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Sainz had indeed just gone only 0.151s slower than Verstappen through sector one with a personal best, but critically matched what Norris had achieved on his pole lap in sector one. Sainz later wondered if “it was a lower track temp” that made “the car come alive”.

Given how the McLarens had struggled to stop their rear tyres overheating in sector three – where Verstappen was able to pull away from Norris during their mid-sprint chase as his RB20 has the balance to allow him to “drive to what the car allows” – the falling temperatures as dusk rolled in would’ve boosted the MCL38s too.

The RB20 looked so compliant it appeared to be back to its F1-dominating best from early in 2024

But Norris nevertheless hailed how McLaren had “improved the car quite a bit” with its post-sprint set-up changes. This centres on how the team has “understood how to adapt to the wind”, per team principal Andrea Stella.

This was something that had left the Italian fearing Austin would be the track of the remaining six venues in the 2024 title run in where he had expected the MCL38 to “struggle most”.

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Why Ferrari looks so strong in race trim, but must avoid its sprint friendly fire

Verstappen’s sprint victory was his first of any kind since he won the equivalent event at the Red Bull Ring back in June and it keeps up his undefeated streak of sprint wins this term. The RB20 looked so compliant it appeared to be back to its F1-dominating best from early in 2024.

Ferrari could provide Verstappen's sternest threat, provided its drivers don't delay each other

Ferrari could provide Verstappen’s sternest threat, provided its drivers don’t delay each other

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

But the stopwatch tells a slightly different story – particularly on his margin of Austin sprint victory. This was just 3.9s yesterday, compared to 9.5s over Lewis Hamilton in the same sprint in 2023.

In the strong early Saturday heat afternoon this year, Verstappen produced a lap time average of 1m38.154s over the sprint’s last 14 tours. The reason for that count is because it’s the lap when Sainz finally got ahead of team-mate Charles Leclerc to run third behind Norris.

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The Ferrari drivers were battling savagely in the early stages of the sprint but weren’t dropped by the leaders. Instead, Sainz was able to then catch and pass Norris on the final lap – where the Briton was nearly jumped by Leclerc but for his canny Turn 15 defence. This was bizarrely investigated post-race by the stewards given it was so obvious Norris would have to block there.

Sainz’s average once he’d cleared Leclerc in the sprint came in a miniscule 0.009s down on Verstappen. Leclerc, following closely in fourth in the sprint, was only a further 0.032s slower each time (his average is missing the final lap after the battle with Norris). This is what is so encouraging for Ferrari’s prospects in the main event.

While Sainz insisted he didn’t “agree” with suggestions his battle with Leclerc had cost Ferrari the chance to chase down Verstappen in the sprint, there can be no denying how the Pirellis hate temperature spikes – such as the ones on the SF-24s would’ve got from their battling. A case in point comes from the Mercedes squad that had such a disaster in qualifying at COTA, with Hamilton knocked out in Q1 and so even offering up his upgraded parts to go on Russell’s repaired machine. “But we’re not going to swap,” Russell added.

In the sprint, Russell himself looked to be a victory contender early on given how he scrapped with and saw off the Ferraris initially, and briefly challenged Norris at Turn 12. But he fell back to fifth and was 8.8s adrift of Leclerc by the finish. Hamilton was already well behind and facing the big gap to the Ferraris that his team-mate eventually fell into.

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Mercedes drivers suffered in the sprint race after pushing their tyres too hard early on

Mercedes drivers suffered in the sprint race after pushing their tyres too hard early on

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Mercedes insiders suggest this was a direct consequence of its drivers pushing too hard from the off on the mediums – for Russell in making his moves and later defending, for Hamilton in pushing just to keep up with the Ferrari drivers early on.

“The reality is that this weekend we’re in the fight,” Sainz replied when Motorsport.com asked how satisfied he and Ferrari are to be showing strongly on a very different track type to the Monza-Baku-Singapore run where it has historically shone in this rules era. “I couldn’t say the same of Zandvoort and Spa – the last normal tracks we’ve been to. Good positive progress.”

But Leclerc went further after he’d qualified fourth, claiming “if we see the same race pace as [Saturday] morning, for sure the [GP] race win is possible”.

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Although history and his determined nature suggest otherwise, the Dutchman could yet decide that discretion is the better part of valour

Yet there are two big obstacles in Ferrari’s path. Taking Norris first – his sprint lap time average came in at 1m38.351s, which is 0.2s slower than Verstappen’s headline pace. But he spent all race in dirty air and knows “I don’t want to do it again” in terms of destroying his tyres. He said this was behind his sprint Turn 1 lock-up that let Sainz by to take second behind Verstappen.

But there were mitigating circumstances of sorts in how Norris’s mediums – like those on his Red Bull and Ferrari rivals – had been used in sprint qualifying. But his had done one extra lap on Friday night, which will have been a factor in the way they degraded as they did.

Clean air combined with that car set-up progress in dealing with the snaps coming from the strong wind means he may well be harder for Sainz and Leclerc to pass in the GP. Norris will also likely have to get aggressive at Turn 1 given how the uphill, sharp left-hander has had so much action in the past and Verstappen surely won’t be able to resist what could be a title-defining move for either contender if it results in contact.

It will be intriguing to see how Verstappen approaches the run to Turn 1 now he's starting behind Norris

It will be intriguing to see how Verstappen approaches the run to Turn 1 now he’s starting behind Norris

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

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But, although history and his determined nature suggest otherwise, the Dutchman could yet decide that discretion is the better part of valour. This is because his car has also changed since the sprint, which could well thwart Ferrari’s raised hopes.

Verstappen has been switched to one of Red Bull’s bigger rear wings, which explains that sector two, Q3 run one, time loss to Norris. Of this, Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko said: “We went for race set-up.”

Inevitably, this race will come down to a tyre management contest on what is expected to be an even hotter day compared to Saturday – given a predicted lack of cloud in the skies south-east of Austin.

That will likely make things worse for Mercedes, with the W15s continuing to struggle in hotter conditions, but overall it makes a two-stopper pretty much nailed on as this combines with a relatively low pitstop time loss of 20s.

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Given how much the hards were used in FP1 – to Pirelli’s surprise, nine of the 10 teams put their drivers on it in that session – a medium-hard-medium is predicted by Pirelli to be the most likely strategy for the frontrunners. But Motorsport.com understands that many teams are relying on how in 2023 the best strategy was a medium-medium-hard approach. McLaren even reserved an extra set of hards and ended up deciding not to use them.

However, the major track resurfacing means lap times are around 2s faster and so it could be that there’s a tyre sting in the Texas sun for anyone expecting an exact replica to last year.

There are still plenty of unknowns heading into the main grand prix, even after Saturday's sprint

There are still plenty of unknowns heading into the main grand prix, even after Saturday’s sprint

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

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DTM – Round 8: Hockenheim Race 2 – Highlights

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Ogier needs “reset” after costly WRC Central Europe exit

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Sebastien Ogier says he needs a “reset” after a third consecutive incident cost Toyota valuable points in its bid to defend the World Rally Championship manufacturers’ title.

The eight-time world champion was in the box seat to deliver a fourth victory from his partial campaign at the Central European Rally, having ended Saturday with 18 provisional points after building a 5.2s lead over Hyundai’s Ott Tanak.

However, his rally began to unravel when he overshot a left-hander in Sunday’s first stage, dropping the Frenchman 1.9s behind the 2019 world champion.

That gap was shortened to 1.5s heading into the penultimate run, where Ogier’s rally came to an abrupt halt six hundred metres into a stage where route note crews were unable to traverse beforehand to pass on crucial road information to drivers.

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Ogier ran wide into a fast right-hander, clattering the trees and causing terminal damage to his GR Yaris, and was unusually visibly angry in the aftermath of the incident that threw away the 18 points earned on Saturday.

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The accident is the third incident in a row for Ogier after crashing on the final stage in Greece, while in Chile he clipped a rock that sent him into retirement on the Saturday.

“It was another example that the gravel crew are doing a crucial job for us. It was the only stage of the weekend where they were not allowed to go through and basically we didn’t have the information of the road evolution,” said Ogier at the scene of the crash.

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Sébastien Ogier, Vincent Landais, Toyota Gazoo Racing WRT Toyota GR Yaris Rally1

Sébastien Ogier, Vincent Landais, Toyota Gazoo Racing WRT Toyota GR Yaris Rally1

Photo by: Toyota Racing

“This first long corner under the trees people have been cutting more [than we were] anticipating. The corner was becoming very greasy and at the end I couldn’t turn basically and I understeered and went wide at the exit and hit the trees on the outside.

“I feel angry with myself in the moment and I’m very sorry for the team. I tried my best. It was really my main target to help them achieve the manufacturers’ title.

“I think I was doing a good job so far but unfortunately it is a third weekend in a row that has not gone my way. It is a tough time.”

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Reflecting on the incident hours later, Ogier added: “I need a reset for sure. Right now I feel very disappointed for the team as it could have been another strong weekend for us.

“In France, we say ‘never two without three’ and now it is three rallies in a row that we have really tough luck. I’m very happy with the speed obviously but unfortunately, again this was even worse than the last weekends as we didn’t score any points this time. Let’s hope we still have some in Japan.”

Despite the crash, Toyota reduced the deficit to Hyundai to 15 points in the manufacturers’ race thanks to points scored by Elfyn Evans, who finished the rally third overall, while Takamoto Katsuta picked up the maximum 12 Super Sunday points.

Toyota team principal Jari-Matti Latvala admitted that it had been strange to see the mistakes from Ogier, but also believes safety note crews must be allowed to pass through each stage in the future.

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“It was looking very good after Saturday and I thought we would be able to catch back on points and take it closer for Japan, but it has unfortunately changed quite rapidly,” Latvala told Motorsport.com.

“It’s strange [to see these errors from Seb] and he has apologised.

“This time, what he told me [is] they didn’t allow the safety crews to go through because of the timetable so there was more mud on this corner and he anticipated higher grip and he lost control of the car.

“With these cars, we should always have the safety crews going on stage. It is a different story with the slower cars but when the speeds are higher the risk levels are higher.

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“I think it has hurt him quite hard because he had done a great fight and tried to help the team but when the accidents happen in a row… it starts to affect your confidence and everything it is not easy to handle that kind of thing.”

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EXCLUSIVE: 2024 SUPER GT – SARD Toyota Breaks Four-Year Winless Streak at Autopolis | Highlights

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How Lawson wasted no time making an impression on his F1 return

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If the final six races of 2024 are a shootout for next year’s Red Bull seat alongside Max Verstappen, then series returnee Liam Lawson certainly made an impression.

Fresh from a spell on the sidelines as Red Bull’s reserve driver, Lawson kicked off his stint replacing Daniel Ricciardo at Red Bull’s RB team with a third-fastest time in Q1 at Austin. He was three tenths off leader Verstappen, and faster than what team-mate Yuki Tsunoda could muster in qualifying.

Lawson came into Saturday qualifying knowing he would start on the back of the grid on Sunday due to an engine penalty inherited from Ricciardo. He was also shaking off a disappointingly messy lap in sprint qualifying, which prevented him from challenging for points earlier on Saturday.

So, Q1 was his only chance to make an impression, which he certainly did by clocking a third-fastest-time which Red Bull mentor Helmut Marko called “sensational”.

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“You showed what you had to show,” his race engineer told him after his Q1 lap.

“That’s all I wanted to do,” came the excited reply, tinged with a hint of frustration that his impending grid penalty robbed the New Zealander of what could have been a Q3 spot had he been able to repeat his exploits in the following session.

Liam Lawson, Visa Cash App RB F1 Team, on the Sprint grid

Liam Lawson, Visa Cash App RB F1 Team, on the Sprint grid

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

“That was the goal; to make the most of Q1 to put everything together,” Lawson said afterwards. “And that’s what we what we did. It’s obviously positive, coming from yesterday into today.

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“[The grid penalty] is just more frustrating because the performance of the car, the pace, was really strong in Q1. Obviously we’d only really improved from there, is the idea, so there were plenty of positives going forward.

“[Friday] I knew we had performance in the car, and I knew we didn’t maximise it. I made a mistake in Q2 and went wide and had a bit of a slow lap. 

“We made a further step with it, make some changes, and it’s just nice when you put it all together. It feels like I completed what I’d set out to do getting into the car this weekend. Now we need to try and master the race side of it.”

But despite thinking about what could have been a great starting position, Lawson says he still enjoyed being back where he belongs after watching from the sidelines for the past 12 months.

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“It was a good feeling, it was nice to be back in a race,” he nodded. “Being a reserve driver, I probably didn’t realise how much I would miss actually racing and being in competition.

“I’ve competed every year since I was seven years old, so it was a bit strange and I missed it. It was good to be back.”

Additional reporting by Mark Mann-Bryans

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Central European Rally Sunday Power Stage highlights

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Russell to take pitlane start in US GP after qualifying crash

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George Russell will start Formula 1’s United States Grand Prix from the pitlane as the result of a parc ferme rules breach by Mercedes.

The Briton had crashed out of Q3 at Austin on Saturday, badly damaging his W15 car after hitting the barriers at Turn 19.

The impact destroyed a new upgrade package that Mercedes had brought to this weekend’s race, and left it with a dilemma about what to do as there are no spare parts available for the new developments.

Although Lewis Hamilton, who had qualified 19th after a miserable Q1, offered his upgrades to allow Russell to take up his sixth spot on the grid, this was deemed not practical by the team as that would have been too much work across both its cars.

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Instead, the team knew that losing the upgrade meant it would likely have to revert Russell to the previous specification of car that had been used up until the Singapore GP.

The one saving grace of this happening in Austin is that it is without automatic penalty because teams are allowed to change specifications on sprint weekends if it is proven that there are no spares available.

George Russell, Mercedes-AMG F1 Team

George Russell, Mercedes-AMG F1 Team

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

However, even just focusing on Russell’s car alone, to go back to the previous specification was too much effort to complete under normal parc ferme time limits – so the decision was taken to keep working overnight.

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This meant that the normal parc ferme covers that are fitted to cars, to prevent any work taking place when it is in operation, were kept off. This is a breach of the rules and requires the driver to start from the pitlane.

A team statement said: “We had to work on the car overnight during the car’s covered period.

“The workload involved in that was due to reverting on specification to what we ran in Singapore.”

Russell’s pitlane start means Mercedes faces a difficult time in the USA GP, with its drivers well down the order.

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Hamilton will start 17th now, thanks to Russell dropping off the grid and RB‘s Liam Lawson having to start at the back because of an engine change penalty.

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