Sports
4 Reasons Messi, Inter Miami are not an MLS Cup Lock vs Vancouver Whitecaps
After winning their last three MLS Cup Playoff matches by a combined 13-1 margin, conventional wisdom suggests Lionel Messi and 
Inter Miami CF are a near-lock to win their home MLS Cup final on Saturday against the 
Vancouver Whitecaps.
Don’t buy into it.
Yes, Miami are peaking at the right time, led by Messi’s otherworldly play, Tadeo Allende’s emergence and Javier Mascherano‘s gutsy decision to bench Luis Suárez.
But the challenge the Whitecaps will present should be far stiffer than anything the Herons have faced so far this postseason.
Here are four reasons why.
An Easier Path
The analytics suggest Miami had got the luck of the draw after Round One
Yes, Miami was dominant in the last two rounds of the playoffs. But being in the supposedly tougher Eastern Conference also worked to their advantage.
While the expected goals models really liked 
Nashville SC, Miami’s Round One foe, the other East teams cannibalized each other. The result was a semifinal against an 
FC Cincinnatiside with a negative goal difference on the season, and a 
New York City FC side that was only ranked sixth in regular season expected-goal difference (xGD) when healthy. And they were very much not healthy against Miami.
|
Inter Miami MLS Cup Playoff opponents’ expected goal difference |
|
|---|---|
|
Team |
xGD |
|
Nashville SC |
+18.5 |
|
FC Cincinnati |
-6.9 |
|
New York City FC |
+6.2 |
|
Vancouver Whitecaps |
+25.7 |
|
Numbers via Opta. xGD numbers are from clubs’ 34 regular season matches only |
|
By contrast, the Whitecaps were MLS’ best team in terms of xG difference, according to Opta. Now, some of that superiority may be based on playing a weaker conference schedule in the West. But Vancouver’s numbers are especially impressive when you consider they also managed a run to the Concacaf Champions Cup final, another Canadian Championship title win, and a glut of national team absences and injuries during the middle of the summer.
Confidence Through Experience
Vancouver outclassed Miami twice this spring in Concacaf play
Of all the teams that have defeated Miami during the season, none have done so on a bigger stage than when Vancouver decisively beat the Herons twice during their Concacaf Champions Cup semifinal.
The 5-1 aggregate defeat was arguably the low point of the Herons’ season. And while the margin of victory was more decisive than the flow of play on the field, it’s only human that such an experience will give Miami at least a little bit of pause, which could be a big deal for a side that has excelled at bullying teams mentally at times.
Further, while you can say Miami has improved its personnel since then, so have Vancouver. The semifinal happened long before Thomas Müller’s arrival, and 
Scotland World Cup hopeful Ryan Gauld had already succumbed to an injury that has only seen him recently return to the fold.
Coaching Concerns
Mascherano deserves credit, but Sørensen is more proven
It’s pretty clear that Miami have become a more balanced side since Mascherano made the decision to move Suárez to the bench. But it’s also a little damning of Mascherano’s coaching instincts that it occurred first by necessity after Suárez had to serve a red card suspension in the final game of the Round One series against Nashville.
|
Senior Club Managerial Record |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Manager |
Matches |
Wins |
Losses |
Draws |
|
Javier Mascherano |
57 |
34 |
10 |
13 |
|
Jesper Sørensen |
267 |
121 |
65 |
81 |
|
Source: Transfermarkt |
||||
Sørensen, with considerably more match experience, has shown no fear or deference to stars’ expectations when making pregame or in-game roster adjustments. That even included last Saturday, when Sørensen went ahead with removing Müller for Gauld in the 61st minute, only moments after 
San Diego FC had pulled a goal back during the Western Conference final.
The counterintuitive decision to remove your most-experienced star in a high leverage movement paid obvious dividends, with Gauld providing a calming presence as Vancouver shifted into possession-keeping mode to kill off the 3-1 victory and reach their first MLS Cup final.
Too Messi-Reliant?
In 2025, Miami hasn’t proven very good at Plan B
That story regarding Müller and Sørensen also brings us to our final point, that there are still questions about how Miami functions when Messi is off his game, or even worse, forced to exit due to injury.
This season, Messi has scored or contributed a primary assist in 25 of his 33 MLS regular season or playoff appearances, and of Miami’s 39 regular season or playoff matches.
The Herons have fared far better in those games than the games where Messi has failed to do so, including those he has played and those he has missed due to injury or international duty.
|
Inter Miami’s MLS Regular Season and Playoff Record |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
|
Messi’s contributions |
W |
D |
L |
|
Played and scored or assisted |
20 |
3 |
2 |
|
Played but did not score or assist |
1 |
3 |
4 |
|
Did not play |
2 |
2 |
2 |
Even Saturday’s victory over NYCFC, in which Messi only assisted one goal, showed how critical it is for Miami that he register a goal or an assist one way or another.
His slick feed on Mateo Silvetti’s goal to make it 3-1 in the 67th minute came against the run of play, while NYCFC looked the more likely side to score next and make it a 2-2 affair.
Had he not made the play, it’s fair to wonder whether the final outcome of the match may have been different.
Messi usually makes the play. But he doesn’t always. And that’s enough reason not to write Vancouver off.
Inter Miami vs Vancouver Whitecaps Preview: Where to Watch, TV Channel, Streaming
Lionel Messi and Inter Miami face a massive challenge in the second leg of their Concacaf Champions Cup semifinal tie against Vancouver.
