When the Toronto Blue Jays signed Max Scherzer less than three weeks ago, it was fair to wonder when he might be ready to start in an MLB game and how he’d fit into a crowded rotation picture in 2026.

Those questions haven’t been completely resolved, but the situation has shifted surprisingly quickly. Scherzer told reporters he’d be ready for Opening Day upon arrival at camp and his first spring outing — a four-inning start where he showed promising velocity — demonstrated that there was more behind those words than empty optimism. 

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays’ rotation has become slightly murkier as Trey Yesavage has built up slowly, and José Berríos’s inability to get insured for the World Baseball Classic has put his health in doubt. Nothing is guaranteed for Scherzer, but his path to a rotation spot already seems clearer today than when he first reunited with the Blue Jays. 

With the future Hall of Famer looking less and less like a pure contingency plan, it’s worth examining what fair expectations for him might be in 2026. Although he had some notable highlights in 2025, the 41-year-old also finished the season with a 5.19 ERA and struggled to both miss bats and avoid home runs down the stretch and into the post-season. 

His age alone raises questions. Since 2000, just 21 pitchers have started a game in their age-41 season. That cohort has some success stories, like Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux and David Wells, who all pitched at least 195 innings with three or more fWAR, but the track record is mixed.

Of that group of 21 pitchers, just under half (eight) produced an above-average ERA by ERA-, but six of those eight pitched between 2004 and 2008. The only more recent strong run suppressors were southpaws Andy Pettite (92 ERA- in 2013) and Rich Hill (92 ERA- in 2021).

In the last 10 seasons, pitchers at Scherzer’s age have become rarer, with just five making MLB starts. Their results as starters do not inspire much confidence.

It’s also notable that in each of these five cases, the pitchers were more effective the previous seasons:

In recent years, it’s extremely rare for an MLB team to let a 41-year-old start for them. When they have done so, they’ve been emboldened by strong performances from the quadragenarian in question the year before.

Going back to our sample of 21 pitchers who made a start in their age-41 season since 2000, more than half of them posted at least 2.9 fWAR as a 40-year-old, with 15 posting an above-average ERA. The six exceptions are all relatively easy to explain:

Charle Morton (2024) — Narrowly below-average ERA (101 ERA-) with solid durability (165.1 IP).

Tim Wakefield (2007) — The same overall profile as Morton (102 ERA- in 189 IP). He was also a knuckleballer, who are generally understood to age differently than traditional pitchers.

Orel Hershiser (1999) — Another Morton-type effort (104 ERA- in 179 IP).

Jeff Fassero, Mike Morgan, and Terry Mulholland (2000-2003) — Part-time starters who didn’t top 30 IP in that role as 40-year-olds.

What we haven’t had in the last quarter-century is a pitcher who posted a significantly below-average ERA in a traditional starter role at age 40 (like Scherzer’s 127 in 2025) then got a chance to run it back the next year. Teams just don’t give the benefit of the doubt to players at that stage of their career.

For Scherzer to succeed in 2026, he will have to be a massive outlier. His career accomplishments and the fact that he’s still pitching at his age already grant him that status. Scherzer has been exceeding expectations since he first stepped onto a baseball diamond. It’s impossible to rule out a continuation of that pattern.

To his credit, he also has some respectable projections for 2026, with FanGraphs’ projection systems predicting an ERA for him between 4.20 and 4.68, a significant improvement from last year. He also has much better velocity than most pitchers his age. In his first spring training outing, his fastball averaged 93.9 m.p.h. Since the beginning of reliable pitch tracking in 2007, 29 pitchers have appeared in the majors in their age-41 season — and just two (Morton in 2025 and Fernando Rodney in 2018) have topped that average. 

Scherzer could be effective in 2026. Even if he isn’t, the Blue Jays may wind up happy with his contributions off the field and feel like no freely available depth starter was going to give them strong production anyway. The success or failure of their campaign is unlikely to rest on what the returning veteran gives them.

At the same time, they won the AL East on a tiebreak in 2025 and are in for a tough divisional battle again this year. They could be operating with minuscule margins, and Scherzer might be a player they count on more than expected. The name on the back of the jersey could make that notion comforting, but the year on the birth certificate adds a level of peril.