Eking more out of the Arsenal attack

I listened with great interest to the half-season data review on the Arsenal Vision Patreon this week (£). There was a very good section on the Arsenal attack and the data tells you what your eyes tell you. Defensively / out of possession, Arsenal are the best team in the league and probably the world.

In attack, Arsenal are very good but not quite elite. They don’t have a Salah / Haaland level ‘killer’ in front of goal and that has led to their total and utter dominance of many games not translating into the score line. It would also be nice if Arsenal would stop entirely deserting their out of possession rigour the instant they attain more than a one goal lead, turning lots of games into a high wire act- usually totally unnecessarily.

Short of signing an absolute killer goal scorer- or Saka developing into one- there probably isn’t a way to entirely transform their attacking prowess. There are aspects I think Arteta and his coaching staff can (and I am sure will) consider for the remainder of the season to juice more from their plethora of good attacking options.

More from Saka

I think it is uncontroversial to say that Bukayo Saka is Arsenal’s best and most reliable attacker. A lot of his influence does not show in the headline data. Nevertheless, he is the closest thing that Arsenal have to a stone cold output machine and, at the age of 24, there is time and space for him to hone his final product even further. I can’t really see any of Arsenal’s existing strikers doing that at this stage of their careers and Leo Trossard is probably a bit late in his career at this stage to see him go to another level.

Saka currently sits 7th in the Premier League for XG+XA (expected goals and expected assists). That is good. Really good. I just think Bukayo Saka is better than really good. (The second highest Arsenal player in that list is Leo Trossard in 25th place). Saka going all Matthew McConaughey in Wolf of Wall Street and pumping those (by his standards) rookie numbers in the second half of the season would be timely.

The centre-forward

The return of Kai Havertz is very welcome in this respect. While he is unlikely to ever challenge for the Golden Boot, he is a player who can score goals who just has not been available to this point. I also happen to think that he is still the best option for the centre-forward role and that Arsenal, as a whole, look more fluid with Havertz upfront and linking play.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DTcl12njMF3/?igsh=M3ZieWY1M25uaXZm

Eking more from Viktor Gyokeres will also be critical. Havertz and Jesus are not in the same physical condition as Gyokeres and are not yet in a position to regularly start games, Arsenal need Gyokeres and he is going to play a lot (fitness permitting). There were certainly green shoots at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday though I feel strongly he is far more effective away from home than at home.

The good news is that the data suggests fortune might be ever so slightly more on his side in the second half of the season. Probably not transformatively so, but every little helps! Gyokeres has comfortably overperformed his XG for the last three seasons, this season he has three open play goals in the Premier League from 4.8 non-penalty XG.

It is reasonable to assume that there is every chance that his finishing will start to trend in the right direction again soon enough since the past is a strong indicator of the future when it comes to finishing. I think there is something here about partnerships too in a forward line that chops and changes quite a lot. I still think Arsenal have looked at their smoothest when Merino played as a false 9- where he actually operated more as a 10, with Trossard, Saka and Eze ahead of him.

That forward line had greater fluidity and unpredictability. I don’t think Gyokeres has really struck up a good partnership with any of Arsenal’s attackers, be they to the side of him or behind him. His data pre-injury is also vastly better than his data post-injury, which suggests to me that confidence has been an issue.

Better connections and increased confidence should enable us to see a little more from Gyokeres. The opportunity to interact and rotate with Havertz, for example, might also help. It might mean that Gyokeres can become more of a tool for certain scenarios rather than the all-weather option.

Greater chaos without surrendering control?

Two summer signings who have also struggled for regular impact this season are Noni Madueke and Eberechi Eze. I strongly suspect that both have been used so sparingly due to a mixture of players in good form ahead of them (Odegaard, Trossard) and because they are not the most fastidious out of possession.

Dialing up the chaos a little can be a good avenue to breaking down low blocks. Arsenal are fourth in the Premier League when it comes to successful take ons that lead to a shot (they have 18 fewer shots via that avenue than Manchester City). They are eighth in the league for successful take ons, eighth for take ons attempted and sixth for carries.

More regular inclusion for Noni Madueke could certainly increase Arsenal’s ability to take on low blocks in a more direct manner. But clearly, there are out of possession downsides in playing Madueke at this stage that you don’t get with Trossard and Martinelli in the team. I can still see a world where Madueke competes strongly for the left-wing spot but there is work to do before that vision is realised.

Eberechi Eze is a ‘moments’ player who can break a game open, as we have seen already this season in games against Manchester City, Crystal Palace and Spurs. Once he gets the ball on his right foot within range of the goal, he is one of Arsenal’s cleanest strikers of the ball. However, for the time being, his lack of attention to detail defensively at Villa Park in December means he is not trusted on the left wing.

That means he is competing with Martin Odegaard for a central position and that is a fascinating battle simply because the players could not be more opposed in style. Odegaard helps Arsenal to control every phase of play. He averages 65.7 touches per 90 minutes. He also averages 1.86 shots per 90 minutes and has just one goal so far this season.

Eberechi Eze averages 41.7 touches per 90 but manages 2.43 shots per 90 and has four Premier League goals this season. Eze does not help Arsenal to control rhythm and tempo like Odegaard, nor does he create for others at anywhere near the same rate. But he shoots more often and offers far greater goal threat- especially when Merino was operating as a false 9 and Eze had license to break ahead of him.

On both the left wing and in the 10 position; Arteta is favouring control over chaos. I am not suggesting that is a totally incorrect decision either. Arsenal have won nine and drawn one of their last 10 games after all. It will be interesting to see whether that dial is adjusted in the second half of the season.

I wouldn’t bet a lot of money on it. While results and performances are good, Arteta will (rightly) feel vindicated about opting for control over chaos- even if Arsenal have to expend way more effort than they should need to defending slender advantages. But the options are there to finesse the formula a little but, as always, a manager has to consider the downsides of doing so, as well as the potential upsides.

All data from FBRef