Leeds could hire a “student of Bielsa” to replace Farke

Daniel Farke‘s future at Elland Road has come into question after Leeds United slipped into the relegation zone following a run of four straight defeats in the Premier League.

The Guardian now reports that the German head coach is expected, by senior figures inside the club, to lose his job if they lose to Chelsea and Liverpool in their matches this week.

It has been reported elsewhere that former Wolverhampton Wanderers boss Gary O’Neil is in the frame to replace Farke, having been out of a job since he was sacked by the Old Gold last season.

Why Leeds should avoid Gary O’Neil

At face value, the English tactician would seem to be a shrewd appointment for the West Yorkshire outfit, given that he kept Bournemouth and Wolves in the Premier League in his first seasons with both clubs.

However, the underlying numbers behind those two campaigns and his second season with Wolves suggest that that may have had more to do with the quality of the players at his disposal, rather than outstanding coaching.

As you can see in the table above, both of his teams picked up more points than their performances deserved, as both Wolves and Bournemouth delivered relegation-battling numbers.

Those dismal performance numbers finally caught up with O’Neil in his second season with the Old Gold, as he lost 11 of the first 16 matches before being sacked, per Transfermarkt.

This is why Leeds should avoid a move for the ex-Wolves boss, because his Premier League career so far does not suggest that he would be the man to improve their performances, and that is why they should pursue Carlos Corberan instead.

Why Leeds should hire Carlos Corberan

If the Spanish head coach, who is a reported target for the club, is available and willing to come to Elland Road, the Whites should sack Farke and ignore O’Neil to bring him back to Thorp Arch.

Corberan, who was described as a “student of Marcelo Bielsa” by scout Ben Mattinson, worked for Leeds at U21 level and as a first-team coach for Bielsa before he made his first step into senior management with Huddersfield Town.

After play-off finishes in the Championship with Huddersfield and West Brom, the Spanish tactician was appointed by Valencia last season, and only lost five of his 21 LaLiga games in charge of the club, per Transfermarkt, to earn a 12th-placed finish.

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Whilst O’Neil’s Premier League teams largely benefitted from an overperformance against their performance data, Corberan has been unfortunate with Valencia in LaLiga this term.

Per FotMob, the Spanish side are 15th in the league on 14 points from 14 games. However, they rank 12th in the division for xPTs (17) and have underperformed their xG, of 14.8, and conceded more than their xGA of 20.8.

This shows that Corberan’s coaching has been better than Valencia’s results suggest, as his players have not made the most of the situations that the system and tactics have created for them, whilst the opposite was true of O’Neil’s time with Wolves and Bournemouth.

The 42-year-old tactician has shown that he can manage in one of the top leagues in Europe, having previously shown his class in the Championship, and that should also appeal to Leeds if they are looking for a replacement for Farke in the coming days.

Farke, as shown in the earlier table, has a dismal Premier League record in his career, which is why appointing a manager like Corberan, who has been a safe pair of hands for Valencia and has a pre-existing relationship with the club, could be a great move.

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The likes of Corberan and O’Neil will now surely be watching on from afar with keen interest as Leeds take on Chelsea and Liverpool this week in the Premier League.