Malik Willis, the top free-agent quarterback on the market in 2026 (if one assumes the Indianapolis Colts re-sign Daniel Jones), will not be cheap. If the Minnesota Vikings are interested in his services, it will cost at least $30 million per year, says the latest intel from the NFL Combine.

If Willis is suddenly a $30M-a-year bet, Minnesota’s cap plight gets tight in a hurry.

The Vikings don’t have $30 million lying around, so if they want Willis, the salary cap magic must be sophisticated.

Willis’s Market Could Price Him Beyond Minnesota’s Comfort Zone

A miniature Willis bombshell just 12 days before the start of free agency.

Jordan Schultz: Willis to Be a $30M per Year Man

There will be no prove-it discount for Willis if NFL insider Jordan Schultz has it right.

He tweeted Wednesday, “Packers free agent QB Malik Willis is in demand, as expected, and interested teams I’ve spoken to at the Combine in Indianapolis believe him getting at least $30M per year is a foregone conclusion.”

Until the Schultz tweet, recent deals for passers like Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield suggested Willis might pull down $20 million to $25 million annually. That forecast has changed.

The Vikings’ Salary Cap Situation

The “legal tampering” phase of free agency begins on March 9th, and the Vikings are over the cap by approximately $43 million. What does that mean? They’ll have to release several players or backload many existing contracts to free up any money at all.

The likelihood of a team over the cap by $43 million, some 12 days before free agency, finding $32 million to spend on a quarterback feels low. We’re talking about a $75 million gap. A team with cap problems isn’t usually in the market to sign the top available quarterback in free agency.

And, not for nothing: if Minnesota wanted to spend around $30 million on a quarterback, it should’ve re-signed Darnold last year.

Daily Norseman‘s Warren Ludford recently floated the idea of restructuring Justin Jefferson’s contract: “Jefferson has a $25 million base salary this season and a contract that runs through 2029 with a void year so converting that base salary to a signing bonus would spread the cap hit over the remaining years of his contract and save the Vikings around $20 million in cap space this year.”

“That’s probably enough to accommodate the signings of free agents such as Jalen Nailor, Eric Wilson, Ryan Wright, Andrew DePaola, Jalen Redmond (EFRA), Bo Richter (EFRA), Ivan Pace Jr. (RFA), and a few others, along with Mac Jones and Anthony Richardson if the Vikings opt to trade for them.”

Willis’s GB Production

Willis started three games for the Green Bay Packers over the last two years, leaving general managers around the sport drooling, according to Schultz’s reporting. In fact, a quarterback with three starts under his belt fetching a $30 million per year contract is wild.

Still, if one translates Willis’s statistics from those three starts to a 17-game sample, a full season would look like this:

• 3,468 Passing Yards
• 34 Total TDs
• 0 INTs
• 6 Fumbles
• 79.6% Comp
• 986 Rushing Yards

Those are Lamar Jackson numbers. Some team will take the risk.

The Frontrunners for Willis

Where will Willis land? A handful of teams may need quarterbacks in March. Here’s the theoretical list:

• Arizona Cardinals
• Cleveland Browns
• Miami Dolphins
• Minnesota Vikings
• New York Jets
• Pittsburgh Steelers

In the court of public opinion, the Dolphins and Jets are considered the frontrunners as of late February. In fact, the Green Bay Packers’ defensive coordinator, Jeff Hafley, landed the Dolphins’ head coaching job last month, and then Miami hired an executive from Green Bay’s front office as its general manager.

For the Jets, they have no quarterback solution on the horizon at all, unless they draft Alabama’s Ty Simpson in April and call it good.

Pro Football Network‘s Zachary Johnson noted on Willis’s free agency this week, “The Jets, meanwhile, signed former first-round pick Justin Fields to a two-year contract last spring. He’s entering the final year of his deal, but an uninspiring, injury-plagued campaign left head coach Aaron Glenn wanting more out of his signal-caller. The Cardinals are expected to release Kyler Murray for contractual reasons.”

“The former 1st overall pick is likely to have played his last down in Arizona, and, in the eyes of many, a divorce appears to be on the horizon. As for the Dolphins, the connections with Willis are obvious. Jon Eric-Sullivan was just hired as the team’s next general manager after ascending the ranks in the Packers’ front office over the last two decades.”

NFL franchises have watched in the last three seasons as Baker Mayfield and the aforementioned Darnold have reclaimed their careers. Willis is the next in line, or so goes the theory.