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NFL Free Agency QB Predictions: Where the Top 2026 Quarterbacks Could Land

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Green Bay Packers quarterback Malik Willis (2) runs the ball past Tennessee Titans linebacker Harold Landry III (58) during the second quarter at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024.Green Bay Packers quarterback Malik Willis (2) runs the ball past Tennessee Titans linebacker Harold Landry III (58) during the second quarter at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024.

NFL free agency gets started on Monday, as teams will be able to agree with free agents on new contracts. Players will be able to sign those contracts on Wednesday.

Last year, Minnesota Vikings free agent quarterback Sam Darnold signed a deal with the Seattle Seahawks that helped win a Super Bowl in Mike Macdonald’s second season as head coach.

The NFL is a copycat league. That means teams are going to be tripping over themselves to find the next Darnold. It’ll create opportunities for quarterbacks to find second or third chances in the NFL after being given up on by their former teams.

Let’s lay out a few predictions of where the top free agent quarterbacks of this class will land.

Malik Willis- Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins released Tyreek Hill and restructured plenty of contracts. They’re determined to not be handcuffed by Tua Tagovailoa’s salary going into next season.

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Willis and new Dolphins head coach Jeff Haffley were both on the Green Bay Packers together. It feels like a no-brainer for the Dolphins to bring in their quarterback of the future via free agency.

Playing down south could be appealing to Willis, who grew up in the Atlanta area. Not to mention, living in Florida means no state income tax on the massive contract that he’ll sign.

Kyler Murray- Cleveland Browns

Nov 3, 2025; Arlington, Texas, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) leaves the field after defeating the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn ImagesNov 3, 2025; Arlington, Texas, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) leaves the field after defeating the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

A surprise!

Everyone and their brother are linking Murray to the Minnesota Vikings. But why?

Sure, Kevin O’Connell is the guy that gets credited for reviving Darnold’s career. But really, could that have been Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator Grant Udinski? He departed the organization and the offense regressed while Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence had a career-best season.

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In Cleveland, Murray would have the opportunity to follow in the footsteps of fellow Oklahoma Sooners Heisman quarterback Baker Mayfield, who was on the doorstep of being a franchise legend when he beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in the NFL Playoffs.

Murray’s still a talented quarterback that will throw for double the amount of touchdowns compared to interceptions while rushing for a bunch of yards and scores as well. He’d instantly assume the QB1 role from Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel. In Minnesota, there’s a threat that they might still try to develop McCarthy, who was a first-round selection.

New Browns coach Todd Monken helped Lamar Jackson win an MVP in their first season together. Could be a fun fit.

Geno Smith- Minnesota Vikings

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Dec 28, 2025; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith (7) throws in the third quarter against the New York Giants at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn ImagesDec 28, 2025; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith (7) throws in the third quarter against the New York Giants at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Vikings could bring in Smith to compete with McCarthy.

Smith’s tenure with the Las Vegas Raiders was a massive flop, leading to his release. But the Raiders also didn’t have Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. The Vikings do.

At 35, Smith could be a veteran bridge to the future for the Vikings, whether McCarthy is part of that equation or not is to be determined.

Russell Wilson- Atlanta Falcons

Last offseason, former Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski met with Wilson about quarterbacking in Cleveland. Now in Atlanta, Wilson could provide Stefanski some veteran insurance if Michael Penix Jr. can’t stay healthy or just isn’t any good.

Kirk Cousins- New York Jets

File this one under, “why the hell not!”

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The Jets need a quarterback. But they probably won’t draft their franchise quarterback until 2027. New York gives Cousins one last chance to start in the NFL while keeping Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson happy enough in the interim.

Aaron Rodgers- Pittsburgh Steelers

Jan 12, 2026; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) audibles during the second half of an AFC Wild Card Round game against the Houston Texans at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn ImagesJan 12, 2026; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) audibles during the second half of an AFC Wild Card Round game against the Houston Texans at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

It really felt like a small reason why the Steelers even hired Mike McCarthy as their head coach was to entice Rodgers back.

The 42-year-old quarterback claims that he hasn’t made a decision, but it would be a surprise if he retired and went quietly into the shadows. The Steelers and Rodgers are a match made in hell as they’re both two egotistical parties too prideful to embrace the reality that their glory days are over.

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Nearly locked into play-in, Warriors try to improve seeding vs. Wizards

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NBA: Brooklyn Nets at Golden State WarriorsMar 25, 2026; San Francisco, California, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Brandin Podziemski (2) and forward Gui Santos (15) and forward Draymond Green (23) celebrate after their team defeated the Brooklyn Nets at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-Imagn Images

With a spot in the Western Conference play-in tournament almost a certainty, the Golden State Warriors will look to improve their positioning down the stretch, beginning with a Friday date against the Washington Wizards in San Francisco.

Golden State (35-38) pulled out of a recent tailspin in which it dropped eight out of nine by winning its past two games, including a 109-106 home victory over the Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday. That contest opened a stretch in which the Warriors will play seven out of eight games at home, including the contest against Washington (17-55).

The Warriors can’t finish worse than their current position, 10th place in the Western Conference, the final play-in spot. They are 8 1/2 games behind the sixth-place Houston Rockets, who hold the last guaranteed playoff spot, with nine games to go.

With Golden State missing several key contributors, including two-time Most Valuable Player Stephen Curry, who has been sidelined by a knee injury since late January, coach Steve Kerr has relied on a rotating group of players to step up.

Among them is Gui Santos, who netted a career-high 31 points in the Wednesday win.

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“He’s played a lot of minutes here the last month with all the injuries, and he continues to get better,” Kerr said of Santos, who is averaging 8.6 points per game but has scored 13 or more in 11 of the past 12 contests. “He’s really crafty. He’s finding ways to get to the rim.”

Golden State also continues to look to Brandin Podziemski as a leader of the perimeter attack, a unit that sustained another significant blow with wing Moses Moody rupturing his left patellar tendon in an overtime win against the Dallas Mavericks on Monday.

The Warriors also are getting more help from midseason acquisition Kristaps Porzingis. The big man started four of the past five games, and he posted 22 points and seven rebounds against Dallas, then 17 points and five boards vs. Brooklyn.

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Porzingis went for 30 points, five rebounds, four assists and three blocks the last time the Warriors met the Wizards — a 125-117 Golden State win in Washington on March 16.

That defeat was part of the Wizards’ franchise-record-tying 16-game losing streak, which the Wizards ended on Wednesday with a 133-110 victory over the Utah Jazz in Salt Lake City.

Jaden Hardy came off the bench to score 21 points for Washington, following a 25-point performance in the Wizards’ Sunday loss at New York. Meanwhile, rookie Julian Reese delivered another notable showing in his limited appearances with the Wizards this season, posting a career-high 26 points and pulling down 17 rebounds against the Jazz.

Reese, the brother of WNBA star Angel Reese, spent much of the season in the G League. In six games with Washington, he has averaged a double-double at 12 points and 10.7 rebounds per game.

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Reese joined Shaquille O’Neal and Tim Duncan as the only rookies in the past 40 years to grab 20 rebounds in one of their first five career games. He pulled down 20 against Utah on March 5.

“He’s just got an instinct to go get the ball, and he’s really good at it,” Washington coach Brian Keefe said of Reese.

“My rebounding has a lot to do with heart,” Reese said. “I’m not the tallest guy out there. I just try to find the angle and go get it … It just comes with a lot of consistent effort.”

The Friday visit to Golden State marks the third game in Washington’s five-game road trip. The Wizards are in the midst of playing seven out of eight away from home.

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–Field Level Media

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Top Man United target to rule himself out of replacing Michael Carrick as agreement nears

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Paris Saint‑Germain boss Luis Enrique has been among the names linked with the Manchester United job

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Manchester United have suffered a major setback in their search for a new manager, with shortlisted candidate Luis Enrique now expected to sign a new contract at Paris Saint‑Germain. According to the i paper, club president Nasser Al‑Khelaifi is eager to extend Enrique’s deal beyond 2027 – a development that leaves Michael Carrick ‘closing in’ on the full‑time job.

It’s also reported that the signing of Spanish wonderkid Dro Fernandez, secured ahead of several top European clubs, was used as a ‘sweetener’ to reassure Enrique that PSG are fully committed to his long‑term project. United are thought to have shortlisted Enrique, with interest said to come from chief executive Omar Berrada and director of football Jason Wilcox.

Last week, Enrique was asked about his future during a brief interaction with a fan. The video, which went viral online, suggests the 55‑year‑old wants to stay put.

In the video, Enrique stopped his car to sign autographs for fans when one stated: “I hope you stay with PSG for a long time.”

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The Spanish manager’s reply was telling as he said: “Me too.”

The same fan then brought up United, asking: “Not at United though?” Enrique simply laughed off the suggestion.

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The report also claims that Carrick is now ‘closing in’ on becoming the next permanent manager as a result, with Ineos understood to be leaning towards offering him the full‑time role at Old Trafford – albeit initially on a ‘short‑term basis.’

The former midfielder has impressed since taking over in January, losing just once and guiding United up to third in the table.

Champions League football is becoming an increasingly realistic prospect for next season, and if United do secure qualification, it would be difficult to overlook Carrick.

While no decision is expected before the end of the season, it’s clear that if the club choose to go in a different direction, Enrique could already be off the table.

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Elsewhere, Bournemouth boss Andoni Iraola has emerged as another contender for the Old Trafford job. His contract is due to expire this summer after nearly three years in charge on the south coast.

Iraola has built an impressive reputation, guiding Bournemouth to 12th and ninth in his first two Premier League seasons.

Despite losing several influential players in the summer, he has the Cherries on course for another strong finish – currently sitting 13th and unbeaten in 11 matches.

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What time is LSU vs. Duke today? Channel, live stream, TV schedule to watch women’s NCAA Sweet 16 game

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What time is LSU vs. Duke today? Channel, live stream, TV schedule to watch women’s NCAA Sweet 16 game originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

A highly anticipated matchup is coming to Sacramento Friday night as No. 2 LSU and No. 3 Duke go head-to-head in the Sweet 16.

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LSU’s powerhouse offense will face a worthy opponent as they prepare for the Blue Devils in the regional semifinal. The Tigers are playing some of their best basketball right now, though, and Kim Mulkey’s squad already defeated Duke by a margin of nearly 20 points back in December.

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Duke enters the Sweet 16 on the heels of a dominant 69-46 win over Baylor in the second round. Delaney Thomas led the squad in that matchup with 17 points, seven rebounds, three steals and two blocks on the night. The Blue Devils’ defense is rock-solid — can they use it to their advantage for a win in Sacramento?

Who will secure their bid in the Elite Eight?

Here’s everything you need to know about LSU vs. Duke women’s basketball, including TV channel and streaming options for the Sweet 16 matchup.

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What channel is LSU vs. Duke on today?

LSU vs. Duke will be available to watch on ESPN.

Fans looking to stream LSU vs. Duke can watch live on the ESPN app, which will carry every NCAA women’s basketball tournament game in 2026.

Now you can watch ESPN without cable. Stream live NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, college sports, plus SportsCenter, First Take, and all your favorite ESPN shows—anytime, anywhere—only in the new ESPN app.

Fans can also stream the game via Fubo, which offers a free trial to new subscribers so you can try before you buy.

LSU vs. Duke start time

  • Time: 10 p.m. ET | 9 p.m. CT | 7 p.m. PT

The NCAA women’s tournament game between LSU and Duke is set to tip off at 10 p.m. ET from the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. Under head coach Kim Mulkey, LSU has reached four consecutive Sweet 16 rounds. This year will mark the program’s 18th time in the regional final.

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Meanwhile, Duke is tallying their 19th Sweet 16 appearance in Sacramento, and their third under head coach Kara Lawson.

LSU vs. Duke radio coverage

Listen to LSU vs. Duke in the 2026 NCAA women’s basketball tournament live on the SiriusXM app.

New subscribers can listen to SiriusXM for free for four months. Listen to live NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL games, plus NASCAR, college sports and more. Stay updated with all the news and get all the analysis on multiple sport-specific channels.

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Women’s March Madness bracket 2026

Check the Sporting News women’s NCAA Tournament live bracket for the latest final scores and next-round matchups.

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When is the Women’s Final Four in 2026?

  • Location: Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix

The 2026 Women’s Final Four is set for April 3 and 5 at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix. The semifinals will be played Friday night and the national championship game is set for Sunday afternoon.

Women’s March Madness tournament schedule 2026

Here is the round-by-round schedule for the 2026 NCAA women’s basketball tournament:

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Round

Date

First Four

March 18-19

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First round

March 20-21

Second round

March 22-23

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Sweet 16

March 27-28

Elite Eight

March 29-30

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Final Four

April 3

National championship

April 5

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Human rights experts raise concerns over IOC gender eligibility ruling

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A collection of over 100 human rights groups have raised concerns over the ethics and “fairness” of the International Olympics Committee’s decision to use mandatory genetic sex testing to determine eligibility for future women’s events.

IOC president Kirsty Coventry announced on Thursday that eligibility for the women’s category at future Olympic events will be determined by a one-time gene-screening test, starting from the Los Angeles 2028 Games.

The committee said any athletes found to posses the sex-determining SRY gene – a gene located on the Y chromosome – would be ineligible for the women’s category, ruling out transgender athletes and the majority of those with differences in sexual development (DSD).

The IOC said the one-time gene-screening test would be conducted via saliva, cheek swab or blood sample, and would be “unintrusive compared to other possible methods”.

But experts have warned that universal sex testing for the SRY gene could cause “considerable harm to affected athletes” and is an “inaccurate test of both sex and athletic advantage”.

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The IOC’s ruling followed an 18-month consultation, with the policy “based on science” and “led by medical experts with the best interests of athletes at its heart”. Coventry said: “The scientific evidence is very clear: male chromosomes give performance advantages in sports that rely on strength, power or endurance.”

The ​French Olympic Committee said on Thursday that it had “major ethical and scientific concerns for all those affected” ‌and that the SRY tests would be illegal ⁠in France under the nation’s strict bioethics law on genetic testing.

“A sex testing and blanket ban policy would be a catastrophic erosion of women’s rights and safety,” said Andrea Florence, the executive director of the Sport & Rights Alliance.

“Gender policing and exclusion harms all women and girls, and undermines the very dignity and fairness the IOC claims to uphold. Our concerns are compounded by the fact that the IOC also seems to be, at the same time, divesting from the safe sport infrastructure that actually provides protection for women and girls.”

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The Sport & Rights Alliance, along with over 100 other allied organisations, called on the IOC to abandon its plans to mandate genetic sex testing and warned the policy “would constitute an astounding rollback on gender equality and set women’s sport back 30 years”.

Payoshni Mitra, executive director of Humans of Sport, said: “Requiring women and girls to undergo mandatory genetic screening just to participate in sport would revive a practice that – even if it’s a ‘one-time test’ – violates women’s and girls’ privacy, exposes them to extreme public scrutiny, humiliation, and opens a pathway to medically unnecessary interventions.

“People often forget that child athletes compete at the Olympics and international competitions – this policy would cause massive safeguarding risks by requiring young women and children’s bodies to be investigated and their intimate health information disclosed, potentially leading to permanent harm to their dignity, mental health, and safety.”

The IOC ‌did not foresee a major problem ​with the legality issue. “Based on (International Federation) experience, genetic screening for ‌sex does not create significant problems in practice,” the ​policy document read. It is legal in most countries, and athletes from the countries where it is not permitted can lawfully be tested elsewhere.”

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The new rules have no retroactive power and have no impact on grassroots or amateur sports.

Includes reporting from Reuters

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McLaughlin: 10 Best College Football Rosters for 2026

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SEC logo

LSU’s transfer portal class sets massive expectations for Lane Kiffin during his 1st season in Baton Rouge.

The Tigers clearly have a Top 10 roster nationally.

Who else is on that list?

Locked on College Football logoToday’s episode of Locked On College Football is a crossover with ‘The Portal’ podcast host Brian Smith of the Locked On Network.

They lay out the top rosters in the sport here in Spring as transfers look to get accustomed to their new teams.

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00:00 Elite Rosters and Key Players
05:34 Miami Football Elite Prospects
10:02 LSU Quarterback Uncertainty Looms
15:04 College Football Portal Insights
17:14 Indiana’s Portal Success Examined
26:19 Oklahoma’s Playoff Doubts
30:50 Alabama’s Quarterback Battle Highlights

/ @lockedoncollegefootball  

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Caviar Heights to sample Rosehill in 2026 Neville Sellwood Stakes against top local

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Assistant to William Haggas, Isabella Paul, who has brought Caviar Heights on a long haul from the UK, struggles to fathom that Rosehill’s toughest rival for the horse is a premier homegrown speedster.

The five-year-old travelled down under with stablemate and seasoned international Dubai Honour, positioning himself for Saturday’s Neville Sellwood Stakes (2000m), which also launches the Australian career of $10 million star and latest Group 1 conqueror Barnavara.

“That’s going to be tough for us,” Paul said.

“She is a top class filly. But I’m very happy, I don’t think we could have him in a better place.

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“It always helps having Dubai Honour down here because he is such a pro.

“The other horse has followed his lead. I’m really happy with where they’re at. They look fantastic in their coats, they are maintaining their weight well, and I’m really looking forward to Saturday.”

In contrast to Tancred Stakes aspirant Dubai Honour’s extensive Australian background—this his third Sydney sojourn—Caviar Heights is relatively unproven here.

His stakes achievements largely involve Listed contests in Europe, highlighted by a couple of podium finishes for Haggas amid the English winter.

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Paul explains he has required patience owing to a proneness “to be a little bit free” on the course and in workouts, but improvement is evident.

“He led on both those occasions, and – we haven’t talked tactics with the boss yet – but I wonder whether we might just try to drop him in,” she said.

“He probably wants to be fairly handy, but he just has that tendency to slightly over-race. We saw it in his last run last season. He led and he was pestered, and it didn’t suit him at all, and he finished fifth of six.

“Hopefully, if we can just get him to do it the right way, he’s got a big future ahead of him.”

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Uncommon among Euro imports, Caviar Heights boasts mainly good-track form, complemented by an early career soft placing.

Tom Marquand will ride both Haggas challengers again.

Visit online bookmakers for competitive betting markets for the race in the Neville Sellwood Stakes.

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NFL news: Tom Brady says he inquired about return to play as a Raiders owner

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Even though Tom Brady had become a minority owner of the Las Vegas Raiders, the legendary quarterback still inquired about a potential return to the field.

Brady, 48, said the NFL was not a fan of the possibility of Brady coming out of retirement as an owner and playing again.

“I actually have inquired, and they don’t like that idea very much,” Brady told CNBC. “We explored a lot of different things, and I’m very happily retired. Let me just say that, too.”

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Tom Brady looks on

Founders FFC quarterback Tom Brady during the Fanatics Flag Football Classic at BMO Stadium in Los Angeles March 21, 2026. (Kirby Lee/Imagn Images)

Brady impressed in last week’s Fanatics Flag Football Classic, throwing for 85 yards and two touchdowns on the smaller field over two games. Brady said he loved being back on the field but said the game confirmed his retirement decision.

“I loved being out there, playing in the flag game. I loved not getting hit. I got a lot of really fun things I’m involved in, and it’s never going to get old throwing passes to incredible athletes on the football field. But, if anything, that game reconfirmed to me that I’m very happy in retirement,” Brady said.

KYLIE KELCE REVEALS HER ‘DOS AND DON’TS’ OF TALKING TO POSTPARTUM WOMEN: ‘OH, I’M SO SERIOUS’

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Tom Brady and Kevin Burkhardt

Fox Sports announcer Kevin Burkhardt, left, with Tom Brady on the field before the Super Bowl between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs at Caesars Superdome Feb. 9, 2025. (Mark J. Rebilas/Imagn Images)

The NFL is also happy that Brady wants to stay in retirement because if the future Pro Football Hall of Famer returned to play, it would cause a headache for the league.

An NFL spokesperson told CNBC that if Brady were to return to the field, he would have to divest his ownership stake in the Raiders after a policy was created in 2023 that prohibits players or team employees from taking equity in a club.

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Tom Brady argues with a ref

Founders FFC’s Tom Brady reacts to a call made by the referee against the U.S. National Flag team during the Fanatics Flag Football Classic March 21, 2026, in Los Angeles.  (AP Photo/Caroline Brehman)

The spokesperson told CNBC that there would also be salary cap issues for a player-owner.

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Brady purchased a 5% share of the Raiders in 2024.

Follow Fox News Digital’s sports coverage on X, and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.

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🗞️ Front pages, World Cup Friday and friendlies in football

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Today’s front pages offer plenty of variety. With friendlies taking center stage, in Spain the headlines focus on someone who broke barriers in the world of sport: Carolina Marín’s retirement makes her the main story.

However, looking abroad, the aftermath of the European playoffs is the front-page topic in Italy, as is the friendly between France and Brazil in the neighboring country.

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Plenty of stories on Friday’s agenda.

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MARCA

AS

MUNDO DEPORTIVO

SPORT

SUPERDEPORTE

LA GAZZETTA DELLO SPORT

CORRIERE DELLO SPORT

TUTTOSPORT

L’EQUIPE

DAILY EXPRESS SPORT

STAR SPORT

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇪🇸 here.

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Inside Purdue’s put-back: Coaches detail decisions on thrilling play that rocked Texas

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SAN JOSE, Calif. — For 39 minutes and 49 seconds, No. 2 seed Purdue and No. 11 Texas battled and bruised and fought through (quite literally) broken bones to put on a sizzling Sweet 16 battle. When the time came for a decider, college basketball’s most prolific assister in history wanted the winner for himself.

But Braden Smith didn’t quite have it. 

Purdue ran an action that gave Smith the space he wanted to drive down the right side of the lane. He tried to touch the ball off the backboard, but he shot it just a touch awry. Fortunately, he let go with three seconds on the clock, leaving just enough time for his fellow fourth-year Boilermaker, Trey Kaufman-Renn, to muscle in over Texas’ Dailyn Swain and gently tip the ball back through the hoop with 0.7 seconds remaining to give Purdue the 79-77 win. The man nicknamed TKR delivered more than a TKO — this was an outright knockout shot for Texas in the tournament.

It was also the least amount of time left of any Purdue winning shot in NCAA Tournament history and the first of Kaufman-Renn’s college career.

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Conspicuously, Texas’ best big man, Matas Vokietaitis, was not on the floor for the final defensive possession. 

Did Sean Miller make a mistake? 

Anything but, the Longhorns coach told CBS Sports. For all of Vokietaitis’ size and game-disrupting ability, he managed just two rebounds against Purdue, one on each end. Given Smith’s maestro-like control to work the high screen-and-roll with as much command as anyone in the college game, Miller wasn’t willing to chance getting his big on an island against one of the most seasoned and savvy players in the sport.

“Because Matas was playing the 5, and in my mind, [Purdue would] have to switch that on the game-winner,” Miller told CBS Sports. “So, if we would have done that, Matas would have been guarding Braden Smith. I know he would have guarded Braden Smith there. So, by playing a quicker player, it allowed us to be able to switch.

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“In hindsight, the other part of it is, if you don’t involve Matas in that, and he has to guard somebody else? They’re a perimeter team, and they’re so good shooting the ball. So, we elected to go a little quicker to negate that; then, we ended up giving up an offensive rebound. But I don’t know if it was because of our lack of size, as much as, like, you have to block him out on that.”

The sub-in for Vokietaitis was 6-8 sophomore Nic Codie. Texas was told to switch every position, 1 through 5. Miller wanted Swain on TKR so that, if he set a ball screen, Texas would switch onto him in that scenario.

It never played out that way. Purdue slipped out of the screen, Smith never passed and no switch happened.

These are the tiny decisions that can flip a game’s outcome.

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“Many times a game is won and lost not on the first shot but the second,” Miller said. 

These are the quick decisions that alter how a bracket takes shape.

“When it happened, we didn’t set a screen, and so we curled our screen to act like we were coming up, and then Braden didn’t go through it,” Purdue coach Matt Painter told CBS Sports. “A lot of times, those on-ball guys, they feel that screen coming, and then they open a little bit, and when they open, you’re just trying to get that angle. So, that was the play that we were running.”

The irony: Vokietaitis would have been on the floor, Miller said, if not for Purdue center Oscar Cluff fouling out on the prior possession. Swain, who did not box out Kaufman-Renn, drew Cluff’s fifth foul on an and-one that made it 77-77 with 11.9 seconds remaining. 

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“The reason that Matas wasn’t in was simply because Cluff wasn’t, and when you take Cluff out, when Renn is at the 5, it’s a very difficult matchup in a game-winning situation for a center. So, we elected to go quicker,” Miller said.

Painter said he felt good about Purdue’s chances regardless of who Texas put on the floor. The experience of Smith and Kaufman-Renn goes a long way toward that confidence.

“It wouldn’t have mattered whether he was out — I mean, I think it would have mattered to the end result,” Painter said. “If Vokietaitis is on the floor, I don’t think Trey gets the tip-in. … But we weren’t setting up all these screens, so it didn’t matter who that was on the floor.”

The teams tussled for 40 minutes, playing a terrific game. The Boilers and Horns gave the Sweet 16 a riveting start to what could be a special four days of tournament ball, volleying through 16 lead changes and 10 ties and inducing only 11 combined turnovers.

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Even in defeat, Jordan Pope goes home heroic and literally broken. His status was “literally a game-time decision,” per Texas’ coaching staff, after he purportedly injured his ankle in the second round. After Thursday’s loss, Pope came as clean as the break in his right foot. This was no ankle issue; his foot was fractured.

“I think I can clear the air now. Five minutes left against Gonzaga, I broke my foot, a complete break, so it was definitely tough,” Pope said.

Pope had to grit his teeth through Purdue’s myriad dizzying offensive sets. The staff was unsure whether he would manage even 10 minutes of game time. The tournament inspires a lot out of players; Pope’s showing is the latest admirable effort that shouldn’t be forgotten. What a gamer.

“I don’t know how many guys that I’ve coached under these conditions on this stage would have chosen to play,” Miller said. “It would have been very easy for him just to say, ‘Made the Sweet 16, I’m not going to be 100%, I don’t know how I’ll look, and because of that, I can’t go.’ But he gave us everything and gave us the opportunity to win.”

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Pope gutted through 33 minutes and scored 12 points. He was a necessary complementary piece in such a close game, but Texas only ever had a chance because of fellow senior Tramon Mark, who made this Longhorns run possible with his game-winning shot vs. NC State in the First Four nine days ago and put a bow on his outstanding career by dropping a game-high 29 points, including five from beyond the arc. 

And he did it after twisting his ankle in the first half on a 3-point attempt when he landed on Fletcher Loyer’s foot. His 29 points were the most by any Texas player in an NCAA Tournament game since Kevin Durant dropped 30 on USC in 2007.

“When he gets in that rhythm, and that was our concern, they have Pope, Swain and him,” Painter said. “They’re three pretty unique guys.” 

At 63-63, after Texas got it knotted with 8:24 to go, Painter told his staff, “We’re going to have to go offense/defense.”

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He was referring to Loyer, who’s been on a heater from 3 (12-of-20 through three games in the NCAAs) but can be a liability on the other side. But Painter thought better of it and only took out Loyer a couple of times down the stretch. Purdue had enough, barely, to hold off the rare 11-seed from making the Elite Eight.

Purdue is in its seventh Elite Eight in program history and third under Painter thanks to good fortune and right-place-right-time instinct from Kaufman-Renn. Miller hasn’t been that far in 11 years; his most recent regional final came in 2015 with Arizona, which coincidentally enough will face Purdue here on Saturday. 

“There’s no moral victory of, that’s OK, because there’s no guarantee you’re coming back any time soon,” Miller said.

For Painter, who has fallen to Nos. 16, 15, 13 and 12 seeds over the years, a third Elite Eight after dodging an 11 is cherished territory. On this night, the scale balanced a bit more for one of the game’s most consistently successful coaches. Sometimes, that scale tips with just one touch.

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“We out-rebounded them by one, but that last rebound being pretty damn important,” Painter said.

The difference between survival and a send-off can sometimes be whittled to something as simple as one tap. A maddening thought that encapsulates the thinnest of lines defining whether a team keeps its name around for another round.

That’s the tournament.

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