So I guess the Fed chairman, Jay Powell, is not going off quietly into the night. Today is his last meeting as chairman, but he announced his ungentlemanly decision to stay on as a Fed board member for who knows how long. “I’ve said that I will not leave the board until this investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality, and I stand by that,” he said. “In terms of when I would leave, I will leave when I think it’s appropriate to do so,” he added. “The things that have happened in the last three months, I think, left me no choice but to stay.” Mr. Powell concluded that “after my term as chair ends on May 15th, I will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time to be determined. I plan to keep a low profile as a governor.”

Mr. Powell’s not the martyr he thinks he is. You can’t have two chief executives.

President Trump’s choice to lead the Fed, Kevin Warsh, was confirmed today by the Senate Banking Committee, by a 13-11 vote. And he undoubtedly will be confirmed by the whole Senate probably some time next week.

Nobody’s going to listen to Mr. Powell. The cost overrun investigation is being run by the Fed’s inspector general, who is independent, and Mr. Powell has nothing to do with it. And by the way, only once before in the 113-year history of the central bank, has another former chairman stayed on as a board member.

This speaks poorly of Mr. Powell. His record as Fed chairman was undistinguished. The Consumer Price Index averaged 3.5 percent per year under Mr. Powell. That was the highest level since the tenure of Paul Volcker, giving Mr. Powell the worst record in more than 40 years. Cumulatively the CPI rose a whopping 32 percent. And as far as the economy, real gross domestic product averaged 2.4 percent at an annual rate. Another unimpressive performance. On top of that, Mr. Powell was also a highly political Fed chairman who embraced President Biden’s radical climate agenda and even more radical DEI.

In an interview today, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed to me his strong displeasure with Powell by saying “I think it is an insult to Kevin Warsh, Miki Bowman, and Chris Waller to think that these other Republican nominees do not care about the institution of the Fed and that he alone can maintain the integrity of the Fed.”

The good news is that Mr. Warsh will take the helm as chairman and make a number of important changes. Hopefully the Fed’s economic models that are based on the false premise that strong growth leads to higher inflation will be thrown out the window.

Mr. Warsh understands the positives of low tax rates and deregulation in producing a disinflationary impact of faster productivity and lower unit labor costs. Mr. Warsh wants to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet by refocusing the central bank on monetary policy, and leaving fiscal and debt management policies to Mr. Bessent at the Treasury.

The Fed should not be some vast central planning agency. And the cacophony of yapping by various Fed officials will come to an end hopefully, along with something called forward guidance. Mr. Warsh wants the Fed to earn its independence by staying out of politics, and sticking to better control of the money supply, and maintaining a strong and stable dollar. The chairman’s job at the central bank is a very powerful job. So whether Mr. Warsh sees fit to give Mr. Powell a parking spot remains to be seen.

Meta Platforms raised its annual capital expenditure forecast on Wednesday, doubling down on its decision to plow billions into artificial intelligence infrastructure even as it seeks cost savings via planned layoffs.

The Facebook-parent now expects 2026 capital expenditure between $125 billion and $145 billion, compared with its prior forecast of $115 billion to $135 billion.

Shares of the company fell around 5% in extended trading.

Family daily active people (DAP), a metric Meta uses to track unique users who ‌open any one ⁠of ⁠its apps in a day, rose 4% from a year earlier to 3.56 billion.

The results come weeks after Reuters reported first about Meta’s plans for sweeping layoffs, as CEO Mark Zuckerberg attempts to aggressively integrate AI into the company’s workflows and reshape its workforce around the technology.

Meta, which owns Instagram, WhatsApp and Threads, has been spending heavily on AI infrastructure and high compensation for employees such as those working in its Meta Superintelligence Labs, which released its first AI model ⁠called Muse ‌Spark earlier this month.
The company’s robust ad platform, which allows advertisers to automate and personalize their campaigns, has remained its growth engine and has helped support its ⁠investments in AI infrastructure. Its Advantage+ ad automation tools are powered by ad-retrieval engine Andromeda, ranking architecture Lattice and generative recommendation model GEM, helping it attract more marketers on the platform even as companies face geopolitical uncertainty due to the Middle East conflict.

Meta launched ads on messaging service WhatsApp and microblogging platform Threads last year, intensifying competition with platforms like Elon Musk’s X. Simultaneously, Instagram’s Reels continue to jostle with TikTok and YouTube Shorts in the lucrative short-video market.

For the first time, Meta is projected to ‌overtake Alphabet as the world’s biggest online advertiser, with an expected $243.46 billion in global net ad revenue this year, excluding traffic acquisition costs. The forecast, by research firm Emarketer, puts the Google- and YouTube-parent’s ⁠annual ad revenue at $239.54 billion.

Last week, the company expanded the availability of Meta AI business assistant, designed to help advertisers optimize campaign performance and resolve technical issues through real-time guidance.

Meta is installing new tracking software on U.S.-based employees’ computers to capture mouse movements, clicks and keystrokes to train its AI models, part of a broad initiative to build AI agents that can perform work tasks autonomously, Reuters reported last week.

Meanwhile, China ordered Meta to unwind its $2 billion-plus acquisition of AI startup Manus on Monday, as Beijing tightens scrutiny of U.S. investment in domestic startups developing frontier technologies.

By TBN Editorial Staff April 29, 2026

For decades, the economic heartbeat of South Asia has been inextricably linked to the pulse of the Persian Gulf. From the crude oil that fuels its growing industries to the billions in remittances that prop up its foreign exchange reserves, the region has long been the primary beneficiary of Gulf stability.

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Key Points

• Regional markets split: AI-driven optimism has propelled Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan to record highs. India, however, has struggled to keep pace, weighed down by the absence of strong AI-linked stocks.
• Exporters under strain: Indian exporters face mounting crude-linked input costs. While Western buyers resist price hikes, new contracts are expected to carry increases of 15–30%, raising concerns over client retention.
• Corporate pressures: Reliance Industries reported an 8% year-on-year profit decline in its oil and gas units. Chairman Mukesh Ambani cited “unprecedented dislocation in global supply chains” as a key factor.
• Capital flows disrupted: Indian venture capital firms, traditionally reliant on Middle Eastern funding, are seeing negotiations slow. Many are now turning to Europe and Asia to secure new investment.

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Now, as the war between the U.S.-Israeli coalition and Iran enters its third month, that dependence has turned into a systemic vulnerability. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively “functionally impaired” and regional output losses estimated by the UNDP to reach as high as $299 billion, South Asia is facing its most severe economic shock since the 1970s energy crisis.

The Energy Blockade: A Continent Paralyzed

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz on March 4, 2026, sent shockwaves through energy markets that South Asian capitals were unprepared to absorb. With roughly 80% of the region’s oil and LNG imports typically transiting this narrow chokepoint, the impact was instantaneous.

In Bangladesh, which relies on imports for 95% of its energy needs, the government has been forced into “survival mode.” Fuel caps and the closure of universities have become the new norm. In India, the government has invoked emergency powers to redirect LNG supplies from industrial users to households, while IT giants like Cognizant and HCLTech have reverted to full work-from-home policies to mitigate the “cafeteria crisis” caused by fuel shortages.

Brent Crude, which surged past $120 per barrel in mid-March, has settled into a volatile range of $105-$110, but for South Asia, the price tag is only half the problem. The physical absence of supply has led to record-high electricity costs and a “grocery supply emergency” as transport fleets sit idle.

The Remittance Rupture: A Human and Fiscal Toll

Perhaps more devastating than the energy crisis is the potential collapse of the labor export model. There are an estimated 6 million Pakistanis and over 5 million Bangladeshis working in the Gulf. As the war intensifies, these workers are no longer just economic assets; they are a massive humanitarian and fiscal liability.

“We are seeing a wave of voluntary and forced returns as contracts are prematurely terminated in sectors like hospitality and domestic work,” says Dr. Shujaat Faruq, Professor of Economics at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.

The World Bank projects that South Asian growth will slow to 6.3% in 2026, down from 7% in 2025. This downward revision is driven largely by the expected dip in remittances, which serve as the primary hedge against balance-of-payment crises for nations like Nepal and Sri Lanka.

From Fields to Factories: The Fertilizer Squeeze

The ripple effects have now reached the soil. The Gulf region produces over 30% of the world’s urea, a critical fertilizer for South Asia’s agrarian economies. With production halted at major complexes like Qatar’s Ras Laffan—following Iranian strikes on March 18—fertilizer prices have jumped 31%.

This creates a “toxic confluence” for farmers in India and Pakistan ahead of the next planting cycle. Rising input costs, combined with a 140% surge in LNG spot prices, are making basic food production prohibitively expensive. In some Indian markets, agricultural exports like bananas and rice have stalled due to shipping disruptions, forcing farmers to dump produce locally at a loss while urban consumers face soaring prices.

The Emergence of the “War Economy”

South Asian governments are responding with a mix of desperation and radical innovation.

• The Four-Day Week: Pakistan and Sri Lanka have officially introduced shortened workweeks to curb fuel consumption.
• Energy Transition: Analysts suggest the crisis is providing an unintended boost to the renewable sector. In India, IT firms are switching to solar-powered kitchens and electric vehicle fleets to bypass the kerosene-based fuel shortages.
• Trade Rerouting: With the Red Sea and Suez Canal routes increasingly hazardous due to Houthi involvement, shipping is being diverted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 15–20 days to transit times and tripling insurance premiums.

The Long Shadow

The UNDP warns that the conflict could push an additional 8.8 million people in South Asia into poverty by the end of the year. While a temporary ceasefire was announced on April 8, maritime traffic remains at 20% of pre-war levels.

For the economies of South Asia, the “narrative of a safe Gulf” has been irreversibly shaken. The lesson of 2026 is clear: when the Middle East catches fire, South Asia feels the burn more intensely than perhaps any other region on earth. The challenge now is not just weathering the current storm, but rebuilding a regional economy that is no longer one blockade away from collapse.

The Iran war is reshaping South Asia’s economic landscape—boosting some East Asian markets, squeezing India’s exporters and conglomerates, redirecting capital flows, and worsening Pakistan’s fuel costs.

Other People are Reading

Microsoft‘s cloud revenue growth increased in the March quarter while its spending rose less-than-expected as the software giant looks to convince investors that its big bet on artificial intelligence would pay off.

Capital expenditure rose 49% to $31.9 billion in the company’s fiscal third quarter, the company said on Wednesday, compared with Wall Street expectations of $34.90 billion, according to Visible Alpha. Spending had ‌totaled $37.5 billion in ⁠the second ⁠quarter.

The results could ease fears that sluggish adoption of its Copilot 365 assistant for businesses and a heavy reliance on OpenAI may have chipped away Microsoft’s early lead in the AI race.

It may also help justify data-center ⁠spending that ‌has strained cash flows, with major cloud players on track to spend more than $600 billion on AI infrastructure this year.

To sharpen its competitive ⁠edge, Microsoft has aggressively added Anthropic’s technology to its cloud service and products like Copilot amid rising demand for the Claude creator’s models. The expanded AI model options helped the company land on Monday its biggest-ever roll-out of Copilot, covering roughly 743,000 Accenture employees – a majority of the IT firm’s workforce.
Earlier this week, Microsoft also overhauled its OpenAI deal to lock in its 20% cut of the startup’s revenue through 2030 regardless of whether it ‌achieves technological breakthroughs.
But the new arrangement also strips Microsoft of exclusive rights to resell OpenAI’s products on its cloud, just as competition heats up from Alphabet and Amazon.

The e-commerce ⁠giant has already started offering OpenAI’s latest models and Codex coding tool on its cloud.

The move could free up cloud capacity for Microsoft, which has blamed shortages for holding back revenue growth and used that to argue for its massive spending.

Funding those outlays has, however, forced companies to look for ways to cut costs. Microsoft earlier this month rolled out its first employee buyout program in more than five decades.

Amazon and Meta have also announced job cuts affecting thousands of employees.

Operator

Good evening, and welcome to Universal Music Group’s First Quarter Earnings Call for the period ended March 31, 2026. My name is Gavin and I will be your conference operator today. Your speakers for today’s call will be Sir Lucian Grainge, Chairman and CEO of Universal Music Group; and Matt Ellis, Chief Financial Officer. They will be joined during Q&A by Michael Nash, Chief Digital Officer; and Boyd Muir, Chief Operating Officer. [Operator Instructions]

As a reminder, this call is being recorded. Please also let me remind you that management’s commentary and responses to questions on today’s call may include forward-looking statements, which, by their nature, are uncertain and outside of the company’s control. Although these forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations and beliefs, actual results may vary in a material way.

For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ from expected results, please see the Risk Factors section of UMG’s 2025 annual report, which is available on the Investor Relations page of UMG’s website at universalmusic.com. Management’s commentary will also refer to non-IFRS measures on today’s call. Reconciliations are available in the press release on the Investor Relations page of UMG’s website.

Thank you. Sir Lucian, you may begin your conference.