White Sox Trade Luis Robert Jr. To Mets

10:40pm: Chicago is not sending any cash in the deal, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The Mets are picking up Robert’s $20MM salary and at least a $2MM buyout on next year’s $20MM club option.

10:19pm: The Mets and White Sox are in agreement on a trade sending outfielder Luis Robert Jr. to New York, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Rookie infielder Luisangel Acuña and minor league right-hander Truman Pauley are headed back to Chicago, Passan adds.

This brings an end to what had been years of Robert trade rumors. The White Sox have held their center fielder through multiple rebuilding seasons. In retrospect, they surely wish they’d moved him over the 2023-24 offseason. Robert was coming off a career year and looked like a budding star entering the prime of his career. The past two seasons have been much more challenging, as he has battled injuries and generally struggled offensively while fielding plenty of questions about when he would eventually be traded.

Robert was a high-profile prospect when he signed with the Sox out of Cuba in 2017. He commanded a hefty $26MM bonus, the kind of massive sum for an international amateur that would subsequently be prohibited in the collective bargaining agreement. Robert’s dominant minor league performance further spurred optimism, and the White Sox signed him to a $50MM extension over the 2019-20 offseason. At the time, it was the largest extension for a player who had to make his MLB debut, and it ensured he’d break camp in 2020 without any kind of service time games.

While that year’s schedule would be shortened by the pandemic, Robert popped 11 homers and won a Gold Glove in center field. He placed second in Rookie of the Year balloting. Robert’s numbers jumped in year two, as he hit .338/.378/.567 across 296 plate appearances. A torn hip flexor tendon in his right hip cost him three months, however, and the blend of tantalizing talent and frustrating durability would be a recurring theme in his career.

Robert had a trio of injured list stints, albeit all for minor issues, the following season. He stayed healthy for almost all of the ’23 campaign and showed the star-level ceiling he possesses at full strength. Robert drilled 38 homers, 36 doubles and one triple across 595 plate appearances. He hit .264/.315/.542 to win a Silver Slugger Award. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each valued his season around five wins above replacement after accounting for his excellent center field defense.

The White Sox nevertheless went 61-101 and were outscored by 200 runs on the season. It was clear they were amidst a multi-year teardown, but they elected to hang onto Robert when they had four years of affordable contractual control. They could have netted multiple top prospects if they’d shopped him.

Robert’s production has tanked as the team has slogged through two more terrible seasons. He’s a .223/.288/.372 hitter in 856 plate appearances since the start of 2024. He has struck out at a near-30% rate while continuing to battle injuries. The right hip flared up early in the ’24 season and kept him out for two months. A pair of left hamstring strains were the culprit last summer, with the latter costing him all of September.

The physical tools remain encouraging. Robert is still one of the fastest players in the league despite the various lower body injuries. He ranks in the 92nd percentile among hitters in bat speed, according to Statcast. He’s an aggressive hitter who is always going to have his share of strikeouts. Teams would happily live with a lower on-base percentage if he’s making the kind of power and defensive impact he did in his best days in Chicago.

It’s largely a change-of-scenery bet from the Mets’ perspective. Robert only turned 28 in August and hasn’t shown signs of physical decline. He has spent the past three seasons on one of the worst teams in MLB, fully aware that he’d be traded at some point. A new environment could help him get back on track, although the durability concerns will persist even if his numbers improve.

Robert will at least upgrade the defense and bring some upside on the bases. He has stolen 20+ bags in three straight seasons and went 33-41 in stolen base attempts last year. He should also bring some juice against left-handed pitching, as he’s a career .293/.367/.505 hitter with the platoon advantage. His production against southpaws tanked in 2024 but rebounded last season.

The biggest risk for the Mets is financial. They’re assuming the entirety of Robert’s $20MM salary and committing to a $2MM buyout on a matching club option for the 2027 season. It’s not a small amount to spend on a player who hasn’t produced much over the past two years, and that’s before considering the tax implications.

The Mets pay a 110% tax on spending as a three-time repeat luxury tax payor whose CBT payroll is above $304MM. Robert is guaranteed $22MM for one season — the option buyout is guaranteed money — so they’re hit with a $24.2MM tax bill for the move. It’s a $46.2MM commitment overall, albeit one that comes with the upside of what could be a bargain option in ’27 if Robert hits his ceiling. RosterResource calculate their CBT number around $357MM, putting them on track to exceed last year’s season-ending $347MM mark, which required a $91.6MM tax payment. There’s a good chance they’ll have a tax bill north of $100MM by the end of the ’26 season.

They’ve taken on $64MM in AAV commitments for the 2026 season between the Robert trade and Bo Bichette signing over the past five days. The Mets haven’t wanted to lock themselves into lengthy deals one offseason after the Juan Soto signing, so they’ve compensated with significant short-term investments to chase upside. Robert should be the everyday center fielder as long as he’s healthy. That’d push Tyrone Taylor either into a fourth outfield role or as a stopgap in left field if prospects Carson Benge and Jett Williams open the season in Triple-A.

More to come.