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AGI is coming faster than we think — we must get ready now

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AGI is coming faster than we think — we must get ready now

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Leading figures in AI, including Anthropic’s Dario Amodei and OpenAI’s Sam Altman, suggest that “powerful AI” or even superintelligence could appear within the next two to 10 years, potentially reshaping our world.

In his recent essay Machines of Loving Grace, Amodei provides a thoughtful exploration of AI’s potential, suggesting that powerful AI — what others have termed artificial general intelligence (AGI) — could be achieved as early as 2026. Meanwhile, in The Intelligence Age, Altman writes that “it is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days,” (or by 2034). If they are correct, sometime in the next two to 10 years, the world will dramatically change.

As leaders in AI research and development, Amodei and Altman are at the forefront of pushing boundaries for what is possible, making their insights particularly influential as we look to the future. Amodei defines powerful AI as “smarter than a Nobel Prize winner across most relevant fields — biology, programming, math, engineering, writing…” Altman does not explicitly define superintelligence in his essay, although it is understood to be AI systems that surpass human intellectual capabilities across all domains. 

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Not everyone shares this optimistic timeline, although these less sanguine viewpoints have not dampened enthusiasm among tech leaders. For example, OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever is now a co-founder of Safe Superintelligence (SSI), a startup dedicated to advancing AI with a safety-first approach. When announcing SSI last June, Sutskever said: “We will pursue safe superintelligence in a straight shot, with one focus, one goal and one product.” Speaking about AI advances a year ago when still at OpenAI, he noted: “It’s going to be monumental, earth-shattering. There will be a before and an after.” In his new capacity at SSI, Sutskever has already raised a billion dollars to fund company efforts.

These forecasts align with Elon Musk’s estimate that AI will outperform all of humanity by 2029. Musk recently said that AI would be able to do anything any human can do within the next year or two. He added that AI would be able to do what all humans combined can do in a further three years, in 2028 or 2029. These predictions are also consistent with the long-standing view from futurist Ray Kurzweil that AGI would be achieved by 2029. Kurzweil made this prediction as far back as 1995 and wrote about this in this best-selling 2005 book, “The Singularity Is Near.” 

Futurist Ray Kurzweil stands by his prediction of AGI by 2029.

The imminent transformation

As we are on the brink of these potential breakthroughs, we need to assess whether we are truly ready for this transformation. Ready or not, if these predictions are right, a fundamentally new world will soon arrive. 

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A child born today could enter kindergarten in a world transformed by AGI. Will AI caregivers be far behind? Suddenly, the futuristic vision from Kazuo Ishiguro in “Klara and the Sun” of an android artificial friend for those children when they reach their teenage years does not seem so farfetched. The prospect of AI companions and caregivers suggests a world with profound ethical and societal shifts, one that might challenge our existing frameworks.

Beyond companions and caregivers, the implications of these technologies are unprecedented in human history, offering both revolutionary promise and existential risk. The potential upsides that could come from powerful AI are profound. Beyond robotic advances this could include developing cures for cancer and depression to finally achieving fusion energy. Some see this coming epoch as an era of abundance with people having new opportunities for creativity and connection. However, the plausible downsides are equally momentous, from vast unemployment and income inequality to runaway autonomous weapons. 

In the near term, MIT Sloan principal research scientist Andrew McAfee sees AI as enhancing rather than replacing human jobs. On a recent Pivot podcast, he argued that AI provides “an army of clerks, colleagues and coaches” available on demand, even as it sometimes takes on “big chunks” of jobs. 

But this measured view of AI’s impact may have an end date. Elon Musk said that in the longer term, “probably none of us will have a job.” This stark contrast highlights a crucial point: Whatever seems true about AI’s capabilities and impacts in 2024 may be radically different in the AGI world that could be just several years away.

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Tempering expectations: Balancing optimism with reality

Despite these ambitious forecasts, not everyone agrees that powerful AI is on the near horizon or that its effects will be so straightforward. Deep learning skeptic Gary Marcus has been warning for some time that the current AI technologies are not capable of AGI, arguing that the technology lacks the needed deep reasoning skills. He famously took aim at Musk’s recent prediction of AI soon being smarter than any human and offered $1 million to prove him wrong.

Linus Torvalds, creator and lead developer of the Linux operating system, said recently that he thought AI would change the world but currently is “90% marketing and 10% reality.” He suggested that for now, AI may be more hype than substance.

Perhaps lending credence to Torvald’s assertion is a new paper from OpenAI that shows their leading frontier large language models (LLM) including GPT-4o and o1 struggling to answer simple questions for which there are factual answers. The paper describes a new “SimpleQA” benchmark “to measure the factuality of language models.” The best performer is o1-preview, but it produced incorrect answers to half of the questions. 

Performance of frontier LLMs on new SimpleQA benchmark from OpenAI. Source: Introducing SimpleQA.

Looking ahead: Readiness for the AI era

Optimistic predictions about the potential of AI contrast with the technology’s present state as shown in benchmarks like SimpleQA. These limitations suggest that while the field is progressing quickly, some significant breakthroughs are needed to achieve true AGI. 

Nevertheless, those closest to the developing AI technology foresee rapid advancement. On a recent Hard Fork podcast, OpenAI’s former senior adviser for AGI readiness Miles Brundage said: “I think most people who know what they’re talking about agree [AGI] will go pretty quickly and what does that mean for society is not something that can even necessarily be predicted.” Brundage added: “I think that retirement will come for most people sooner than they think…”

Amara’s Law, coined in 1973 by Stanford’s Roy Amara, says that we often overestimate new technology’s short-term impact while underestimating its long-term potential. While AGI’s actual arrival timeline may not match the most aggressive predictions, its eventual emergence, perhaps in only a few years, could reshape society more profoundly than even today’s optimists envision. 

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However, the gap between current AI capabilities and true AGI is still significant. Given the stakes involved — from revolutionary medical breakthroughs to existential risks — this buffer is valuable. It offers crucial time to develop safety frameworks, adapt our institutions and prepare for a transformation that will fundamentally alter human experience. The question is not only when AGI will arrive, but also whether we will be ready for it when it does.

Gary Grossman is EVP of technology practice at Edelman and global lead of the Edelman AI Center of Excellence.

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Bluesky surges to 15 million users after getting a million sign-ups in one week

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Bluesky surges to 15 million users after getting a million sign-ups in one week

Bluesky may still be the underdog in the race for alternatives to X, but the once Twitter-affiliated service is gaining momentum. The app just passed the 15 million user mark after adding more than a million new users over the last week, the company said in an update.

While Bluesky is still considerably smaller than Threads, which with 275 million users is its biggest rival, there are signs that Threads users have been increasingly curious about the upstart. “Bluesky” has been a trending topic on Threads in recent days and an in-app search suggestion shows there are more than 19,000 posts about “Bluesky.” Bluesky itself has also made to win over Threads users in recent weeks by posting regularly on the Meta-owned service.

That effort seems to be working. A month ago, Engadget , the service had just under 9 million users. Its mobile app also has the top spot in Apple’s App Store, followed by Threads and ChatGPT. Its recent success also seems to be driven, at least in part, by frustration with Elon Musk and X following the US presidential election.

A recent report from web analytics company SimilarWeb found that “more than 115,000 US web visitors deactivated their accounts,” on November 7, “more than on any previous day of Elon Musk’s tenure.” The report also noted that “web traffic and daily active users for Bluesky increased dramatically in the week before the election, and then again after election day,” with Bluesky at points seeing more web traffic than Threads. (Threads’ mobile usage, however, is still “far ahead” of Bluesky.)

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Traffic for Threads and Bluesky according to SimilarWeb.

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“In the US, Bluesky got more web visits than Threads in the immediate aftermath of the election,” the report notes. “For context, it’s important to note that both services are app centric, even though they support a web user interface.”

On its part, Bluesky seems intent on distinguishing itself from its larger, billionaire-controlled rivals. The company, which began as an internal project at Twitter before it spun off into an independent entity, has experimented with novel features like , user-created and “” for new users.

“You’re probably used to being trapped in a single algorithm controlled by a small group of people, that’s no longer the case,” Bluesky’s COO Rose Wang shared in aimed at new users Tuesday. “On Bluesky, there are about 50,000 different feeds … these feeds provide a cozy corner for you to meet people with similar interests. And you can actually make friends again, because you’re no longer tied to a dominant algorithm that promotes either the most polarizing posts and or the biggest brands, and that’s the mandate of Bluesky.”

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Microsoft brings AI to the farm and factory floor, partnering with industry giants

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Microsoft brings AI to the farm and factory floor, partnering with industry giants

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Microsoft has launched a new suite of specialized AI models designed to address specific challenges in manufacturing, agriculture, and financial services. In collaboration with partners such as Siemens, Bayer, Rockwell Automation, and others, the tech giant is aiming to bring advanced AI technologies directly into the heart of industries that have long relied on traditional methods and tools.

These purpose-built models—now available through Microsoft’s Azure AI catalog—represent Microsoft’s most focused effort yet to develop AI tools tailored to the unique needs of different sectors. The company’s initiative reflects a broader strategy to move beyond general-purpose AI and deliver solutions that can provide immediate operational improvements in industries like agriculture and manufacturing, which are increasingly facing pressures to innovate.

“Microsoft is in a unique position to deliver the industry-specific solutions organizations need through the combination of the Microsoft Cloud, our industry expertise, and our global partner ecosystem,” Satish Thomas, Corporate Vice President of Business & Industry Solutions at Microsoft, said in a LinkedIn post announcing the new AI models.

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“Through these models,” he added, “we’re addressing top industry use cases, from managing regulatory compliance of financial communications to helping frontline workers with asset troubleshooting on the factory floor — ultimately, enabling organizations to adopt AI at scale across every industry and region… and much more to come in future updates!”

Siemens and Microsoft remake industrial design with AI-powered software

At the center of the initiative is a partnership with Siemens to integrate AI into its NX X software, a widely used platform for industrial design. Siemens’ NX X copilot uses natural language processing to allow engineers to issue commands and ask questions about complex design tasks. This feature could drastically reduce the onboarding time for new users while helping seasoned engineers complete their work faster.

By embedding AI into the design process, Siemens and Microsoft are addressing a critical need in manufacturing: the ability to streamline complex tasks and reduce human error. This partnership also highlights a growing trend in enterprise technology, where companies are looking for AI solutions that can improve day-to-day operations rather than experimental or futuristic applications.

Smaller, faster, smarter: How Microsoft’s compact AI models are transforming factory operations

Microsoft’s new initiative relies heavily on its Phi family of small language models (SLMs), which are designed to perform specific tasks while using less computing power than larger models. This makes them ideal for industries like manufacturing, where computing resources can be limited, and where companies often need AI that can operate efficiently on factory floors.

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Perhaps one of the most novel uses of AI in this initiative comes from Sight Machine, a leader in manufacturing data analytics. Sight Machine’s Factory Namespace Manager addresses a long-standing but often overlooked problem: the inconsistent naming conventions used to label machines, processes, and data across different factories. This lack of standardization has made it difficult for manufacturers to analyze data across multiple sites. The Factory Namespace Manager helps by automatically translating these varied naming conventions into standardized formats, allowing manufacturers to better integrate their data and make it more actionable.

While this may seem like a minor technical fix, the implications are far-reaching. Standardizing data across a global manufacturing network could unlock operational efficiencies that have been difficult to achieve.

Early adopters like Swire Coca-Cola USA, which plans to use this technology to streamline its production data, likely see the potential for gains in both efficiency and decision-making. In an industry where even small improvements in process management can translate into substantial cost savings, addressing this kind of foundational issue is a crucial step toward more sophisticated data-driven operations.

Smart farming gets real: Bayer’s AI model tackles modern agriculture challenges

In agriculture, the Bayer E.L.Y. Crop Protection model is poised to become a key tool for farmers navigating the complexities of modern farming. Trained on thousands of real-world questions related to crop protection labels, the model provides farmers with insights into how best to apply pesticides and other crop treatments, factoring in everything from regulatory requirements to environmental conditions.

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This model comes at a crucial time for the agricultural industry, which is grappling with the effects of climate change, labor shortages, and the need to improve sustainability. By offering AI-driven recommendations, Bayer’s model could help farmers make more informed decisions that not only improve crop yields but also support more sustainable farming practices.

The initiative also extends into the automotive and financial sectors. Cerence, which develops in-car voice assistants, will use Microsoft’s AI models to enhance in-vehicle systems. Its CaLLM Edge model allows drivers to control various car functions, such as climate control and navigation, even in settings with limited or no cloud connectivity—making the technology more reliable for drivers in remote areas.

In finance, Saifr, a regulatory technology startup within Fidelity Investments, is introducing models aimed at helping financial institutions manage regulatory compliance more effectively. These AI tools can analyze broker-dealer communications to flag potential compliance risks in real-time, significantly speeding up the review process and reducing the risk of regulatory penalties.

Rockwell Automation, meanwhile, is releasing the FT Optix Food & Beverage model, which helps factory workers troubleshoot equipment in real time. By providing recommendations directly on the factory floor, this AI tool can reduce downtime and help maintain production efficiency in a sector where operational disruptions can be costly.

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The release of these AI models marks a shift in how businesses can adopt and implement artificial intelligence. Rather than requiring companies to adapt to broad, one-size-fits-all AI systems, Microsoft’s approach allows businesses to use AI models that are custom-built to address their specific operational challenges. This addresses a major pain point for industries that have been hesitant to adopt AI due to concerns about cost, complexity, or relevance to their particular needs.

The focus on practicality also reflects Microsoft’s understanding that many businesses are looking for AI tools that can deliver immediate, measurable results. In sectors like manufacturing and agriculture, where margins are often tight and operational disruptions can be costly, the ability to deploy AI that improves efficiency or reduces downtime is far more appealing than speculative AI projects with uncertain payoffs.

By offering tools that are tailored to industry-specific needs, Microsoft is betting that businesses will prioritize tangible improvements in their operations over more experimental technologies. This strategy could accelerate AI adoption in sectors that have traditionally been slower to embrace new technologies, like manufacturing and agriculture.

Inside Microsoft’s plan to dominate industrial AI and edge computing

Microsoft’s push into industry-specific AI models comes at a time of increasing competition in the cloud and AI space. Rivals like Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud are also investing heavily in AI, but Microsoft’s focus on tailored industry solutions sets it apart. By partnering with established leaders like Siemens, Bayer, and Rockwell Automation, Microsoft is positioning itself to be a key player in the digitization of industries that are under growing pressure to modernize.

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The availability of these models through Azure AI Studio and Microsoft Copilot Studio also speaks to Microsoft’s broader vision of making AI accessible not just to tech companies, but to businesses in every sector. By integrating AI into the day-to-day operations of industries like manufacturing, agriculture, and finance, Microsoft is helping to bring AI out of the lab and into the real world.

As global manufacturers, agricultural producers, and financial institutions face increasing pressures from supply chain disruptions, sustainability goals, and regulatory demands, Microsoft’s industry-specific AI offerings could become essential tools in helping them adapt and thrive in a fast-changing world.


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Lyten buys battery manufacturing assets from beleaguered Northvolt

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Cuberg's old manufacturing facility stands against a blue sky.

Lyten, a Silicon Valley battery startup, announced today that it’s acquiring manufacturing assets from Northvolt, a Swedish battery manufacturer that’s facing a cash crunch.

As part of the deal, Northvolt is selling manufacturing equipment the company inherited in its 2021 acquisition of Cuberg, another battery startup. Lyten will also assume the lease of Cuberg’s old manufacturing facility in San Leandro, California. Lyten will invest $20 million next year to expand facilities in San Leandro and its existing operations in San Jose.

Neither Lyten nor Northvolt immediately replied to questions about the deal’s financial terms.

Unlike many other battery manufacturers, Lyten isn’t relying on nickel, cobalt, manganese, or even iron for its cathode materials. Instead, it’s using cheap and abundant sulfur mixed into a graphene matrix. On the anode side, it doesn’t use any graphite, a material that faces export restrictions from China. The company says the combination results in cells that have greater energy density than nickel-manganese-cobalt flavors but are cheaper to produce than low-cost lithium-iron-phosphate.

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Northvolt has been struggling lately. The company has struggled to scale up production of lithium-ion batteries, and it missed delivery of a large order from BMW, which nudged the automaker to nullify a €2 billion contract. 

To conserve cash, the company announced in August that it would shutter research and development at the Cuberg site, laying off nearly 200 employees. Then in September, it said that it was laying off an additional 1,600 employees, about 20% of its workforce, and that it had halted two planned factory expansions.

It’s unclear whether that cost-cutting and deal with Lyten will be enough to help Northvolt get through the coming year. Last week, Bloomberg reported that Northvolt needs to raise nearly $1 billion to give it some breathing room; the company’s operations reportedly burn through about $100 million a month.

While Northvolt is on the skids, Lyten appears ascendent.

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The San Jose-based startup is planning to break ground next year on a factory in Nevada with a planned capacity of 10 gigawatt-hours. When complete, the $1 billion facility will produce lithium-sulfur batteries destined for micromobility vehicles like scooters and e-bikes, and defense and space applications like drones and satellites. The company expects it to come online in 2027.

Lyten’s purchase of Northvolt’s Cuberg assets give it the equipment and space to produce up to 200 megawatt-hours of lithium-sulfur batteries in the Bay Area. That should give the company some revenue while it prepares its larger factory in Nevada.

Lyten has raised $476 million to date at a $1.17 billion valuation, according to PitchBook, including a $200 million round that closed last year.

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OpenAI reportedly plans to launch an AI agent early next year

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OpenAI reportedly plans to launch an AI agent early next year

OpenAI is preparing to release an autonomous AI agent that can control computers and perform tasks independently, code-named “Operator.” The company plans to debut it as a research preview and developer tool in January, according to Bloomberg.

This move intensifies the competition among tech giants developing AI agents: Anthropic recently introduced its “computer use” capability, while Google is reportedly preparing its own version for a December release. The timing of Operator’s eventual consumer release remains under wraps, but its development signals a pivotal shift toward AI systems that can actively engage with computer interfaces rather than just process text and images.

All the leading AI companies have promised autonomous AI agents, and OpenAI has hyped up the possibility recently. In a Reddit “Ask Me Anything” forum a few weeks ago, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said “we will have better and better models,” but “I think the thing that will feel like the next giant breakthrough will be agents.” At an OpenAI press event ahead of the company’s annual Dev Day last month, chief product officer Kevin Weil said: “I think 2025 is going to be the year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.”

AI labs face mounting pressure to monetize their costly models, especially as incremental improvements may not justify higher prices for users. The hope is that autonomous agents are the next breakthrough product — a ChatGPT-scale innovation that validates the massive investment in AI development.

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Robotic AI performs successful surgery after watching videos for training

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Watching old episodes of ER won’t make you a doctor, but watching videos may be all the training a robotic surgeon’s AI brain needs to sew you up after a procedure. Researchers at Johns Hopkins University and Stanford University have published a new paper showing off a surgical robot as capable as a human in carrying out some procedures after simply watching humans do so.

The research team tested their idea with the popular da Vinci Surgical System, which is often used for non-invasive surgery. Programming robots usually requires manually inputting every movement that you want them to make. The researchers bypassed this using imitation learning, a technique that implanted human-level surgical skills in the robots by letting them observe how humans do it.

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Strava adds Night and Weekly Heatmaps to its fitness app

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Strava adds Night and Weekly Heatmaps to its fitness app

Strava, a popular app for tracking fitness activities, is expanding its Hatmaps feature to help improve the safety of its users. The update should be especially useful now for users in the Northern Hemisphere, which is heading into winter with reduced daylight.

The new Night and Weekly Heatmaps were announced by the San Francisco-based company on Wednesday and are available to all Strava subscribers. As the name of the feature suggests, the Heatmaps show where Strava users are choosing to exercise, with dark thick lines showing well-used routes, and light thin lines showing less popular ones.

First up, the new Night Heatmaps feature is ideal for those who are doing their activities in the late evening or early morning hours, when there’s less light. They show the most popular areas for outdoor activities from sunset to sunrise, helping athletes to better plan their outdoor activities during this time frame. If it’s a new area for you, you may also want to cross-check the Night Heatmap data with Google Street View images to get a better understanding of the place.

Weekly Heatmaps, on the other hand, show data for recent heat from the last seven days so that users can see which trails and roads are currently active, particularly during seasonal transitions when conditions may be impacted by weather.

“Our global community powers ourHeatmaps and now we’ve made it easier for our community members to build routes with confidence, regardless of the season or time of day,” Matt Salazar, Strava’s chief product officer, said in Wednesday’s announcement about the new features. “We are continually improving our mapping technology to make human-powered movement easier for all skill levels.”

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Strava has also shared a useful at-a-glance guide to all four of its Heatmaps, Night, Weekly, Global, and Personal:

Night (new): Discover the most frequented areas between sunset and sunrise; ideal for evening or early morning users.

Weekly (new): Stay updated with the latest data from the past seven days; perfect for adjusting plans around seasonal changes or unexpected closures.

Global (existing): Viewable by anyone regardless of whether you have a Strava account, the Global Heatmap allows you to see what areas are most popular around the world based on community activity uploads.

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Personal (existing): A one-of-a-kind illustration showing the record of everywhere you’ve logged a GPS activity. This heatmap is private and only available to you.






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