Science & Environment
Fed rate cuts should favor preferred stocks, Virtus fund manager says
One financial firm is trying to capitalize on preferred stocks – which carry more risks than bonds, but aren’t as risky as common stocks.
Infrastructure Capital Advisors Founder and CEO Jay Hatfield manages the Virtus InfraCap U.S. Preferred Stock ETF (PFFA). He leads the company’s investing and business development.
“High yield bonds and preferred stocks… tend to do better than other fixed income categories when the stock market is strong, and when we’re coming out of a tightening cycle like we are now,” he told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.
Hatfield’s ETF is up 10% in 2024 and almost 23% over the past year.
His ETF’s three top holdings are Regions Financial, SLM Corporation, and Energy Transfer LP as of Sept. 30, according to FactSet. All three stocks are up about 18% or more this year.
Hatfield’s team selects names that it deems are mispriced relative to their risk and yield, he said. “Most of the top holdings are in what we call asset intensive businesses,” Hatfield said.
Since its May 2018 inception, the Virtus InfraCap U.S. Preferred Stock ETF is down almost 9%.
Science & Environment
Maps of northern lights forecast show which U.S. states could see aurora borealis this weekend
The northern lights could dazzle millions of Americans in some northern states this weekend. An eruption of solar material from the sun earlier this week could lead to a show of the aurora borealis if the weather conditions are right, officials said.
The eruption, called a coronal mass ejection, prompted the federal government’s Space Weather Prediction Center in Colorado to issue a geomagnetic storm watch for Friday, Saturday and Sunday to alert people about potential disruptions to navigation, power and radio systems.
What time will the northern lights be visible tonight?
The northern lights can be seen just after sunset and just before sunrise, but it’s best to go out at night and away from city lights, according to the center.
The center recommends viewing the northern lights between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. local time. According to the center, the best times of the year to see the aurora borealis are around the spring and fall equinoxes. The fall equinox was on Sept. 22.
Where can you see the northern lights tonight?
The northern lights could be seen as far south as Iowa, Oregon and Pennsylvania, according to the center.
If the conditions are right and the northern lights are bright, they can be seen from as far as 620 miles away, according to the center.
Northern lights map for tonight
The center released a map showing the northern lights forecast for Friday night. The map illustrates the predicted intensity of the aurora borealis over North America with a line showing how far south the lights could be seen on the northern horizon.
Northern lights map for tomorrow night
The center also released a map for Saturday night.
Parts of the country were treated to the northern lights last spring when a powerful geomagnetic storm reached Earth. While the storm expected this weekend is considered to be strong, it’s not supposed to be as powerful as the one in May.
Science & Environment
Supreme Court declines to block Biden rules on planet-warming methane, toxic mercury
Flames from a flaring pit near a well in the Bakken Oil Field. The primary component of natural gas is methane, which is odorless when it comes directly out of the gas well. In addition to methane, natural gas typically contains other hydrocarbons such as ethane, propane, butane, and pentanes.
Orjan F. Ellingvag | Corbis News | Getty Images
The Supreme Court on Friday left in place Biden administration regulations aimed at curbing oil and gas facility emissions of methane, a major contributor to climate change.
In a separate action, the court also rejected a bid to block a separate regulation aimed at curbing emissions of mercury and other toxic pollutants from coal-fired power plants.
In both cases, the court rejected emergency applications without comment, with no noted dissents. Litigation will continue in lower courts.
A separate emergency application seeking to block Biden regulations concerning greenhouse gas emissions from coal- and gas-fired power plants remains pending.
The court’s decision in the methane case means that an Environmental Protection Agency regulation that was finalized in March and is intended to cut methane emissions by up to 80 percent over the next 14 years will remain in effect.
Methane is a greenhouse gas that is 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide at trapping heat once emitted into the atmosphere, hence contributing to global warming.
The regulation has been challenged by Republican states led by Oklahoma and various oil and gas industry groups.
The challengers portray the regulation in stark terms, with industry groups calling it an “authoritarian national command from the EPA” in their court filing. They say the regulation goes further than is allowed under the Clean Air Act, which gives states a role in implementing emissions reduction programs.
The states similarly argued in court papers that the administration is using provisions of the Clean Air Act that were never envisioned to address climate change to “shut down power plants in favor of other sources of generation.”
Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar, representing the Biden administration, dismissed those concerns, saying in her own filing that the agency has not trampled over the states in issuing its emissions guidelines.
“Like all EPA emission guidelines under that provision, those guidelines allow the states to decide what particular regulations to adopt,” she wrote. New presumptive standards issued by the EPA “simply give states a model that they may rely on if they choose,” she added.
The mercury regulation has less sweeping impacts, according to the EPA.
In that case, the court rejected an emergency request filed by conservative states and industry groups that want to block the EPA regulation issued this year.
Under the Clean Air Act provision in question, the EPA is required to curb hazardous pollutants while taking costs into account.
The regulation tightens existing regulations on mercury and other metals, such as arsenic and chromium.
In announcing the rule, the EPA said in April that the earlier 2012 regulation introduced by the Obama administration “has driven sharp reductions in harmful air toxic pollutants.” The new regulation would further limit emissions of mercury and other pollutants, providing health benefits of $300 million by reducing exposure to carcinogens, it said.
Science & Environment
WTI ahead nearly 9% on Mideast risk
U.S. crude oil is set to book a nearly 9% gain for the week, after President Joe Biden indicated that the White House is discussing a possible strike by Israel on Iran’s crude facilities in retaliation for Tehran’s ballistic missile strike earlier this week.
Oil prices would spike by $10 to $20 per barrel if an Israeli strike knocks out 1 million barrels per day of Iranian production over a sustained period, said Daan Struyven, head oil analyst at Goldman Sachs.
Just how high prices would go depends on whether OPEC uses its spare oil capacity to plug the gap, Struyven said.
Here are today’s energy prices:
- West Texas Intermediate November contract: $74.07 per barrel, up 37 cents, or 0.50%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has gained more than 3%.
- Brent December contract: $78.11 per barrel, up 49 cents, or 0.63%. Year to date, the global benchmark has risen more than 1%.
- RBOB Gasoline November contract: $2.0992 per gallon, up 0.0067%. Year to date, gasoline has fallen less than 1%.
- Natural Gas November contract: $2.924 per thousand cubic feet, down 1.55%. Year to date, gas is ahead about 18%.
Though oil prices have surged this week on geopolitical tensions, they have risen from a low baseline. Just last month, prices hit their lowest level in nearly three years as bearish sentiment swept the market on soft demand in China and plans by OPEC+ to increase production.
“The risk to the oil price outlook are definitely significant,” Struyven told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” Friday. The oil market had largely ignored the escalating war in the Middle East until Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday.
“Geopolitical risk premium priced into oil markets until basically today was quite moderate,” Struyven said. Brent prices at around $77 per barrel are still below Goldman Sachs’ view of what constitutes fair value based on inventory levels, he said.
The risk premium has been modest because there haven’t been sustained supply disruptions over the past two years despite high geopolitical tensions, Struyven said. There is also about 6 million barrels per day of spare capacity on the sidelines that can come online and offset tightness from most supply disruption scenarios, the Goldman Sachs analyst said.
Science & Environment
Northern lights possible as huge solar flare spotted
A huge solar flare, the largest since 2017, has been spotted erupting from the Sun’s surface.
Solar flares are made up of electromagnetic radiation that travel from the Sun at the speed of light and can reach Earth in about eight minutes.
They can disrupt some radio communications and satellites but most of us are unlikely to see the those effects.
There is also a chance that northern latitudes could see the Northern Lights this weekend as two geomagnetic storms are predicted to hit Earth.
Solar flares do not cause the Northern Lights. They are caused by a phenomenon called coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that erupt from an active sun spot.
Combined with flares, they can create solar storms that interact with Earth’s magnetic field or magnetosphere.
The CMEs spew out plasma and magnetic field, and up to billions of ton of material, that can hit Earth. As our magnetosphere repels the storm, it creates the aurora.
“There is the potential for a coronal mass ejection to arrive at Earth late on Friday or early on Saturday, which could lead to visible aurora for Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of northern England,” said Met Office Space Weather Manager Krista Hammond.
A second CME is likely to hit Earth on Saturday and Sunday, associated with the solar flare which is rated X9.
That means “enhanced auroral visibility is possible further south across central England and similar latitudes, though cloud and rain could hamper viewing potential for some,” says Krista Hammond.
In the US, aurora might be seen in the northern states, and from the mid-west to Oregon, according to NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Centre.
The X9 solar flare emitted is the largest categorised by Nasa. The smallest is B, followed by C, M, and X. The scale ranks from 1 to 9, so X9 is the most powerful in Nasa’s ranking.
More aurora likely this year
The Sun is approaching something called “solar maximum” which is when it is most active in an 11-year cycle.
As the Sun continues in this active phase, Earth is more likely to be hit by strong geomagnetic storms, meaning there is higher chance of seeing the Aurora Borealis for the next few months.
But scientists only know if solar maximum has happened six months after the event, because they use six months of data analysing the intensity and frequency of sun spots.
Current predictions suggest we could reach solar maximum at the end of 2024 or early 2025.
What is the weather forecast in the UK
BBC weather present Simon King says the UK weather does not look good for people hoping to spot the aurora this weekend.
“It would just be the far north-east of Scotland getting the odd break in the cloud for a short time,” he says.
“If activity turns out to be a bit stronger, the best of the clear skies on Friday night will be more towards central and south England.
He says clouds may hamper viewings on Saturday night despite the evening starting with a lot of clear skies.
Science & Environment
Iran oil tankers disappear from local port amid Israel attack fears, satellite images show
A general view of the Port of Kharg Island Oil Terminal in Iran on March 12, 2017.
Fatemeh Bahrami | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Satellite imagery revealed a number of oil tankers vacating the waters around Iran’s key Kharg Island oil loading terminal, amid fears of an Israeli counterattack on Tehran’s energy infrastructure.
“The National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) appears to be fearing an imminent attack by Israel. Their empty VLCC supertankers vacated the country’s largest oil terminal, Kharg Island, yesterday,” tracking firm Tanker Trackers wrote in a post on the X social media platform on Thursday evening.
Markets have been on edge over the possibility of an Israeli retaliation, after Iran launched a missile attack against the Jewish state earlier this week.
Satellite imagery captured by the European Space Agency’s Copernicus Sentinel-1 mission on Sept. 25 shows a number of VLCC (very large crude carrier) supertankers in the waters around Kharg Island, Iran’s principal oil export terminal. VLCC tankers are specifically designed to transport large volumes of crude oil.
Satellite imagery captured by the European Space Agency’s Copernicus Sentinel-1 mission on Sept. 25 shows a number of VLCC supertankers in the waters around Kharg Island, Iran’s principal oil export terminal.
Sentinel Hub | Planet Labs | European Space Agency
Imagery of the same location on Oct. 3 — two days after Iran launched a volley of around 180 missiles at Israel for the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah — shows an empty sea around Kharg Island, with no ships in sight.
Satellite imagery captured by the European Space Agency’s Copernicus Sentinel-1 mission on Oct. 3 shows an empty sea around Kharg Island, with no visible ships.
Sentinel Hub | Planet Labs | European Space Agency
CNBC could not independently verify the footage.
Iranian tankers are known for frequently switching off their transponders and manipulating their automatic identification system (AIS) in order to conceal their movements to skirt U.S. sanctions on the country’s oil exports. This is a different kind of development, says Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers.com
His analysis of the satellite imagery located the Iranian tankers as currently being “in the middle of the Persian Gulf, west of the island,” he told CNBC.
Kharg Island: Iran’s largest oil terminal
Located fifteen miles off Iran’s northwestern coast, the Kharg Island terminal handles more than 90% of the country’s crude exports. Its loading capacity has increased to 7 million barrels per day, according to Vesseltracker.com, although Iran does not currently export such levels.
Several energy analysts predict that oil prices could see an immediate-term spike of as much as 5% in the event of an Israeli attack on the terminal. Around 4% of global oil supply is at risk in the event of strikes on energy infrastructure in Iran, which is one of OPEC’s largest crude producers.
“There are plenty of facilities on [the] Iranian side and also [on the] Israeli side that could all be targeted in terms of critical infrastructure,” Sara Vakhshouri, founder and president at SVB Energy, told CNBC’s Capital Connection on Wednesday.
“That infrastructure is all connected,” she said, stressing that the sheer size of Iran means “it is impossible to somehow secure all of it.”
Crude futures are on track for gains of around 8% week-to-date, as markets await what Israel’s government has promised to be a “severe response” to the Iranian offensive.
Oil prices jumped 5% on Thursday and are headed for their best week in over a year following comments by U.S. President Joe Biden. Asked whether the White House would support retaliatory Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities, Biden on Thursday told reporters, “We’re discussing that. I think that would be a little… anyway,” breaking off mid-sentence.
The December delivery contract of global benchmark Brent was trading at $78.49 per barrel on Friday at 9:30 a.m. in London, up 1.1% from the Thursday close. The front-month November U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were trading at $74.49 per barrel, higher by 1% from the previous day’s settlement.
Science & Environment
Why oil prices haven’t skyrocketed on Middle East supply fears — yet
A general view of Isfahan Refinery, one of the largest refineries in Iran and is considered as the first refinery in the country in terms of diversity of petroleum products in Isfahan, Iran on November 08, 2023.
Fatemeh Bahrami | Anadolu | Getty Images
Oil prices have jumped more than $5 a barrel since the start of the week amid intensifying fears that Israel could launch an attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure.
The rally, which puts crude futures on track for gains of around 8% week-to-date, has surprised many market observers in that it appears to be somewhat subdued given what’s at stake.
Energy analysts have questioned whether oil markets are being too complacent about the risk of a widening conflict in the Middle East, particularly given that the fallout could disrupt oil flows from the key exporting region. Iran, which is a member of OPEC, is a major player in the global oil market. It’s estimated that as much as 4% of global supply could be at risk if Israel targets Iran’s oil facilities.
For some analysts, the reason crude prices have yet to move even higher is because the oil market is short. This refers to a trading strategy in which an investor hopes to profit if the market value of an asset declines.
“There is a very large short position, not only in oil, you [also] see it in equities. In general, the investors don’t like this space. Why? They are concerned about a big oil supply glut next year,” Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.
“When we look at the situation today, it is starkly different. Inventories are low, curve is backwardated, demand is middling, it’s not great but now you have [China’s] stimulus package on top of that, and you still have the OPEC production cuts,” Currie said.
“On top of that, we’ve thrown in potential conflict in the Middle East that could take out some energy facilities, so the near-term outlook is positive, which is why the front of the curve is strong, but it is being weighed down on the back end over the fears of this big oil supply glut,” he added.
The market is backwardated, or in backwardation, when the futures price of oil is below the spot price. The opposite structure is known as contango.
‘The market is so short’
Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, echoed Currie’s view.
“The market is so short. We’ve never seen these levels of record shorts before,” Sen told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.
Many oil traders appear to have taken a bearish position on the belief that China’s stimulus rally will fail to restore confidence in the world’s second-largest economy, Sen said, adding that market participants also tend to expect OPEC and non-OPEC allies to boost oil production later in the year.
“The market has just gotten itself into this fit of around bearishness but that’s why if it goes, we could be above $80 very quickly,” Sen said.
International benchmark Brent crude futures with December expiry traded 0.1% lower at $77.54 a barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $73.65, down 0.1% for the session.
Fundamentals ‘anything but encouraging’
Oil’s biggest move this week came on Thursday, when prices popped more than 5% following comments from U.S. President Joe Biden over a possible retaliatory move from Israel following Iran’s ballistic missile attack earlier in the week.
Asked by reporters whether the U.S. would support an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities, Biden said: “We’re discussing that. I think that would be a little – anyway.” The president added that “there’s nothing going to happen today.”
CNBC has reached out to the White House for further comment.
Tamas Varga, an analyst at oil broker PVM, told CNBC via email on Thursday that the oil market was pricing in some risk premium given the geopolitical concerns.
“This is why oil is stable-to-higher, equities are weakening, and the dollar is strong. These fears, however, will be greatly alleviated in [the] coming days unless oil supply from the region or traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are materially impacted,” he added.
Situated between Iran and Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow but strategically important waterway that links crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the world.
“Under this scenario underlying fundamentals will become the driving force again and these fundamentals are anything but encouraging,” Varga said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday pledged to respond with force to Iran’s ballistic missile attack, insisting Tehran would “pay” for what he described as a “big mistake.” His comments came shortly after Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel.
Speaking during a visit to Qatar on Thursday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country was “not in pursuit of war with Israel.” He warned, however, of a forceful response from Tehran to any further Israeli actions.
An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) speed boat is sailing along the Persian Gulf during the IRGC marine parade to commemorate Persian Gulf National Day, near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the seaport city of Bushehr, Bushehr province, in the south of Iran, on April 29, 2024.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at the Swedish bank SEB, said that oil prices were surprisingly steady given the high stakes.
“I think it is definitely a little bit about short covering, but [the price rally] is surprisingly weak … given the scenarios that might play out in the Middle East,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Thursday.
Schieldrop said Brent crude prices had largely traded between $80 to $85 for around 18 months or so, before dipping below $70 in September. He described the oil contract’s recent move higher as “very meager,” especially given the “potentially devastating scenarios in the Middle East.”
— CNBC’s Spencer Kimball contributed to this report.
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