Science & Environment
Goldman Sachs says crude could spike by $20 on Iran oil shock
The oil tanker ‘Devon’ prepares to transfer crude oil from Kharg Island oil terminal to India in the Persian Gulf, Iran, on March 23, 2018.
Ali Mohammadi | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Oil prices could shoot up $20 per barrel if Iranian production sees a hit resulting from Israeli retaliation, according to Goldman Sachs.
U.S. crude futures rose around 5% on Thursday and ticked higher again Friday morning on concerns that Israel could strike Iran’s oil industry in retaliation for Tehran’s missile attack this week.
It is estimated that “if you were to see a sustained 1 million barrels per day drop in Iranian production, that you would see a peak boost to oil prices next year of around $20 per barrel,” Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs’ co-head of global commodities research, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Friday.
This is under the assumption that oil cartel OPEC+ refrains from responding by increasing production, Struyven said.
Should key OPEC+ members such as Saudi Arabia and UAE offset some of the production losses, oil markets could see a smaller boost of slightly less than $10 barrel, he added.
WTI Crude
Since the Israel-Hamas armed conflict began on October 7 of last year, there had been limited disruptions to the oil market, with prices remaining under pressure due to increased production from the U.S. and sluggish demand from China.
However, the sentiment could be shifting this week. U.S. crude oil prices just saw a third consecutive session of gains after Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel, heightening tensions in the region. In recent days, industry watchers have sounded the alarm, warning of a real threat to supply.
Iran, which is a member of OPEC, is a key player in the global oil market. It produces almost four million barrels of oil per day, and an estimated 4% of the world’s supply could be at risk if Iran’s oil infrastructure becomes a target for Israel as the latter considers a countermove.
Saul Kavonic, senior energy analyst at MST Marquee, raised the potential of Iran’s Kharg Island, which is responsible for 90% of the country’s crude exports, becoming a target.
“The bigger concern, “is this the kind of a much more imminent beginning of a wider conflagration of the conflict which could impact transit through the Strait of Hormuz,” he added.
If Israel hits Iran’s oil industry, supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could become of concern, other analysts echoed.
Iran has previously threatened to disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz if its oil sector is impacted.
The strait between Oman and Iran is a crucial channel through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s daily oil production passes, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This strategically significant waterway connects crude oil producers in the Middle East with major global markets.
Asked by reporters Thursday if the U.S. would support an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities, U.S. President Joe Biden said: “We’re discussing that. I think that would be a little – anyway.” Oil analysts think those remarks were the catalyst that moved prices higher.
CNBC has reached out to the White House for comment.
“In the case of a full-scale war, Brent would likely soar above USD100/bbl, with any potential shut-in of the strait threatening prices of USD150/bbl or more,” Fitch Solutions’ BMI wrote in a note published Wednesday.
While the probability of a full-scale war remains “relatively low,” the risks of a misstep by either side are now elevated, BMI’s analysts stated.
Although some industry analysts believe that OPEC+ has enough spare capacity to compensate for a disruption in Iranian exports if Israel targets its oil infrastructure, the world’s spare oil capacity remains largely concentrated in the Middle East, especially among the Gulf states, which could be at risk if a larger conflict worsens.
Science & Environment
Why oil prices haven’t skyrocketed on Middle East supply fears — yet
A general view of Isfahan Refinery, one of the largest refineries in Iran and is considered as the first refinery in the country in terms of diversity of petroleum products in Isfahan, Iran on November 08, 2023.
Fatemeh Bahrami | Anadolu | Getty Images
Oil prices have jumped more than $5 a barrel since the start of the week amid intensifying fears that Israel could launch an attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure.
The rally, which puts crude futures on track for gains of around 8% week-to-date, has surprised many market observers in that it appears to be somewhat subdued given what’s at stake.
Energy analysts have questioned whether oil markets are being too complacent about the risk of a widening conflict in the Middle East, particularly given that the fallout could disrupt oil flows from the key exporting region. Iran, which is a member of OPEC, is a major player in the global oil market. It’s estimated that as much as 4% of global supply could be at risk if Israel targets Iran’s oil facilities.
For some analysts, the reason crude prices have yet to move even higher is because the oil market is short. This refers to a trading strategy in which an investor hopes to profit if the market value of an asset declines.
“There is a very large short position, not only in oil, you [also] see it in equities. In general, the investors don’t like this space. Why? They are concerned about a big oil supply glut next year,” Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.
“When we look at the situation today, it is starkly different. Inventories are low, curve is backwardated, demand is middling, it’s not great but now you have [China’s] stimulus package on top of that, and you still have the OPEC production cuts,” Currie said.
“On top of that, we’ve thrown in potential conflict in the Middle East that could take out some energy facilities, so the near-term outlook is positive, which is why the front of the curve is strong, but it is being weighed down on the back end over the fears of this big oil supply glut,” he added.
The market is backwardated, or in backwardation, when the futures price of oil is below the spot price. The opposite structure is known as contango.
‘The market is so short’
Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, echoed Currie’s view.
“The market is so short. We’ve never seen these levels of record shorts before,” Sen told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.
Many oil traders appear to have taken a bearish position on the belief that China’s stimulus rally will fail to restore confidence in the world’s second-largest economy, Sen said, adding that market participants also tend to expect OPEC and non-OPEC allies to boost oil production later in the year.
“The market has just gotten itself into this fit of around bearishness but that’s why if it goes, we could be above $80 very quickly,” Sen said.
International benchmark Brent crude futures with December expiry traded 0.1% lower at $77.54 a barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $73.65, down 0.1% for the session.
Fundamentals ‘anything but encouraging’
Oil’s biggest move this week came on Thursday, when prices popped more than 5% following comments from U.S. President Joe Biden over a possible retaliatory move from Israel following Iran’s ballistic missile attack earlier in the week.
Asked by reporters whether the U.S. would support an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities, Biden said: “We’re discussing that. I think that would be a little – anyway.” The president added that “there’s nothing going to happen today.”
CNBC has reached out to the White House for further comment.
Tamas Varga, an analyst at oil broker PVM, told CNBC via email on Thursday that the oil market was pricing in some risk premium given the geopolitical concerns.
“This is why oil is stable-to-higher, equities are weakening, and the dollar is strong. These fears, however, will be greatly alleviated in [the] coming days unless oil supply from the region or traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are materially impacted,” he added.
Situated between Iran and Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow but strategically important waterway that links crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the world.
“Under this scenario underlying fundamentals will become the driving force again and these fundamentals are anything but encouraging,” Varga said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday pledged to respond with force to Iran’s ballistic missile attack, insisting Tehran would “pay” for what he described as a “big mistake.” His comments came shortly after Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel.
Speaking during a visit to Qatar on Thursday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country was “not in pursuit of war with Israel.” He warned, however, of a forceful response from Tehran to any further Israeli actions.
An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) speed boat is sailing along the Persian Gulf during the IRGC marine parade to commemorate Persian Gulf National Day, near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the seaport city of Bushehr, Bushehr province, in the south of Iran, on April 29, 2024.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at the Swedish bank SEB, said that oil prices were surprisingly steady given the high stakes.
“I think it is definitely a little bit about short covering, but [the price rally] is surprisingly weak … given the scenarios that might play out in the Middle East,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Thursday.
Schieldrop said Brent crude prices had largely traded between $80 to $85 for around 18 months or so, before dipping below $70 in September. He described the oil contract’s recent move higher as “very meager,” especially given the “potentially devastating scenarios in the Middle East.”
— CNBC’s Spencer Kimball contributed to this report.
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Rare brightening comet seen passing Earth from Hawaii
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Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS was discovered in January 2023 after Tsuchinshan Observatory in China spotted it, which was later independently detected by Nasa’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS).
Scientists estimate the last time Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS visited our solar system was 80,000 years ago.
Science & Environment
Nvidia bucks the market, and oil jumps on fears of how Israel may respond to Iran’s missile attack
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street.
Science & Environment
WTI rises as traders fear Middle East war
U.S. crude oil prices rose nearly 2% on Thursday for a third consecutive session of gains, as the market braces for Israel to retaliate against Iran.
The risk of oil supply disruptions increases as fighting in the Middle East intensifies, but OPEC+ is sitting on a large amount of spare crude that could step into the breach, according to Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy.
U.S. crude oil has gained 5% this week.
Here are Thursday’s energy prices:
- West Texas Intermediate November contract: $71.53 per barrel, up $1.46, or 2.08%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil is nearly flat.
- Brent December contract: $75.29 per barrel, up $1.39, or 1.88%. Year to date, the global benchmark has fallen more than 2%.
- RBOB Gasoline November contract: $2.0242 per gallon, up 1.93%. Year to date, gasoline has pulled back nearly 4%.
- Natural Gas November contract: $2.0243 per thousand cubic feet, up 1.98%. Year to date, gas has gained more than 16%.
“This spare capacity is for now preventing runaway prices amid one of the deepest and most pervasive crises in the Middle East in the past four decades,” Galimberti told clients in a Thursday note.
OPEC+ spare capacity would be sufficient to cover a disruption to Iran’s exports if Israel strikes the Islamic Republic’s oil infrastructure as retaliation for Tehran’s ballistic missile attack, said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at the Swedish bank SEB.
But traders would begin to worry about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Schieldrop said. “That would add a significant risk premium to oil,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe.”
As a consequence, oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel if Israel hits Iran’s oil infrastructure, he said.
Science & Environment
Oil prices could soar if Israel targets Iran’s energy infrastructure
A general view of Isfahan Refinery, one of the largest refineries in Iran and is considered as the first refinery in the country in terms of diversity of petroleum products in Isfahan, Iran on November 08, 2023.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
Oil markets are being too complacent given the risk of major supply disruptions in the Middle East, analysts told CNBC on Thursday, with one warning that crude futures could rally to more than $200 a barrel.
It comes amid speculation that Israel could be planning to launch a retaliatory attack on Iran targeting its oil infrastructure — a prospect which would likely deliver a rude awakening to bearish energy market participants.
Iran, which is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is a major player in the global oil market. So much so, it is estimated that as much as 4% of the world’s supply could be at risk if Iran’s oil infrastructure becomes a target for Israel.
Speaking to CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Thursday, Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Swedish bank SEB, said escalating tensions in the Middle East could have dramatic consequences for the market.
“If … you really took out the oil installations in Iran, force down the exports by 2 million barrels, then the next question in the market will be what will happen now in the Strait of Hormuz? That, of course, would add a significant risk premium to oil,” Schieldrop said.
Asked the extent to which oil prices could spike in such a scenario, Schieldrop replied, “If you take out installations in Iran, easily you go to $200-plus.”
Situated between Iran and Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow but strategically important waterway that links crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the world.
Oil prices have climbed more than 4% since the start of the week as traders have closely monitored elevated geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
International benchmark Brent crude futures with December expiry traded more than 2.1% higher at $75.50 per barrel on Thursday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures stood at $71.75, over 2.3% higher for the session.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday pledged to respond with force to Iran’s ballistic missile attack, insisting Tehran would “pay” for what he described as a “big mistake.” His comments came shortly after Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel.
Speaking during a visit to Qatar on Thursday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country was “not in pursuit of war with Israel.” He warned, however, of a forceful response from Tehran to any further Israeli actions.
Maxar overview satellite imagery of the Fortune Galaxy Mahshahr Oil Terminal in Iran.
Maxar | Maxar | Getty Images
“It all depends on how the conflict escalates further and I think it goes without saying that Israel is going to retaliate after the latest Iranian attack — and it’s going to happen within, like, five days probably, before the October 7 one-year anniversary,” SEB’s Schieldrop said.
“Is it going to be … a feeble attack, like we saw in April and then all quieting down? Or is it going to be a more violent attack going after military installations, potentially nuclear installations and oil installations are also on the table. This is what is bugging the market at the moment,” he added.
Energy market complacency?
Energy analysts have warned about a prevailing sense of bearish sentiment in the market, even as flaring tensions in the Middle East threaten to reach a new boiling point.
“I do think, from an oil market point of view, the market is so complacent right now,” Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.
“And look, since 2019, since Abqaiq, geopolitical risks haven’t resulted in oil supply losses.
She said that since 2019 — when Saudi Arabia shut down half its oil production a drone attack on its Abqaiq oil processing facility — geopolitical risks haven’t actually resulted in supply losses.
“That’s why the market is jaded,” she continued. “It was Abqaiq, it was Russia-Ukraine, but I do think this is a little bit different.”
The 2019 attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Saudi Aramco facilities prompted a sharp rally in oil prices at the time.
Asked about the prospect of Israel launching retaliatory strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, Sen said the U.S. was likely to be unequivocal in its diplomatic messages to the Jewish state.
“That is definitely something every side is talking about, right? The U.S. is involved in this. I don’t think we can forget the fact that we have U.S. elections coming up in days, so I think the message from them very clearly is do not hit energy infrastructure. Equally, do not hit the nuclear facilities,” Sen said.
Meanwhile, John Evans, analyst at oil broker PVM, said in a research note published Thursday that historically, oil prices would have shown a “very different and violent reaction” to missile strikes and bombings in multiple countries in the Middle East.”
“Needless to say, anything around Israel pulls on historical impassioned attitudes, but in oil terms, the involvement of the more influential Iran ought to bring favour for bulls,” Evans said.
“Expansion of war and its damage will need to be proven before oil market participants will shake off the over-riding presence of scepticism,” he added.
Science & Environment
The asteroid that killed the dinosaurs was not alone
The huge asteroid that hit Earth and wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago was not alone, scientists have confirmed.
A second, smaller space rock smashed into the sea off the coast of West Africa creating a large crater during the same era.
It would have been a “catastrophic event”, the scientists say, causing a tsunami at least 800m high to tear across the Atlantic ocean.
Dr Uisdean Nicholson from Heriot-Watt University first found the Nadir crater in 2022, but a cloud of uncertainty hung over how it was really formed.
Now Dr Nicholson and his colleagues are sure that the 9km depression was caused by an asteroid hurtling into the seabed.
They cannot date the event exactly, or say whether it came before or after the asteroid which left the 180km-wide Chicxulub crater in Mexico. That one ended the reign of the dinosaurs.
But they say the smaller rock also came at the end of the Cretaceous period when they went extinct. As it crashed into Earth’s atmosphere, it would have formed a fireball.
“Imagine the asteroid was hitting Glasgow and you’re in Edinburgh, around 50 km away. The fireball would be about 24 times the size of the Sun in the sky – enough to set trees and plants on fire in Edinburgh,” Dr Nicholson says.
An extremely loud air blast would have followed, before seismic shaking about the size of a magnitude 7 earthquake.
Huge amounts of water probably left the seabed, and later cascaded back down creating unique imprints on the floor.
It is unusual for such large asteroids to crash out of our solar system on course for our planet within a short time of each other.
But the researchers don’t know why two hit Earth close together.
The asteroid that created the Nadir crater measured around 450-500m wide, and scientists think it hit Earth at about 72,000km/h.
The nearest humans have come to this scale of event was the Tunguska event in 1908 when a 50-metre asteroid exploded in the skies above Siberia.
The Nadir asteroid was about the size of Bennu, which is currently the most hazardous object orbiting near Earth.
Scientists say the most probable date that Bennu could hit Earth is 24 September 2182, according to Nasa. But it is still just a probability of 1 in 2,700.
There has never been an asteroid impact of this size in human history, and scientists normally have to study eroded craters on Earth or images of craters on other planets.
To further understand the Nadir crater, Dr Nicholson and team analysed high-resolution 3D data from a geophysical company called TGS.
Most craters are eroded but this one was well-preserved, meaning the scientists could look further into the rock levels.
“This is the first time that we’ve ever been able to see inside an impact crater like this – it’s really exciting,” says Dr Nicholson, adding there are just 20 marine craters in the world but none have been studied in detail like this.
The findings are reported in Nature Communications Earth & Environment.
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