Science & Environment
Oil could plunge to $40 in 2025 if OPEC unwinds voluntary production cuts, analysts say
A pump jack in Midland, Texas, US, on Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024.
Anthony Prieto | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Oil prices may see a drastic fall in the event that oil alliance OPEC+ unwinds its existing output cuts, said market watchers who are predicting a bearish year ahead for crude.
“There is more fear about 2025’s oil prices than there has been since years — any year I can remember, since the Arab Spring,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, an oil price reporting agency.
“You could get down to $30 or $40 a barrel if OPEC unwound and didn’t have any kind of real agreement to rein in production. They’ve seen their market share really dwindle through the years,” Kloza added.
A decline to $40 a barrel would mean around a 40% erasure of current crude prices. Global benchmark Brent is currently trading at $72 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures are around $68 per barrel.
Oil prices year-to-date
Given that oil demand growth next year probably won’t be much more than 1 million barrels a day, a full unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts in 2025 would “undoubtedly see a very steep slide in crude prices, possibly toward $40 a barrel,” Henning Gloystein, head of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group, told CNBC.
Similarly, MST Marquee’s senior energy analyst Saul Kavonic posited that should OPEC+ unwind cuts without regard to demand, it would “effectively amount to a price war over market share that could send oil to lows not seen since Covid.”
However, the alliance is more likely to opt for a gradual unwinding early next year, compared to a full scale and immediate one, the analysts said.
Should the producers group proceed with their production plan, the market surplus could nearly double.
Martoccia Francesco
Energy strategist at Citi
The oil cartel has been exercising discipline in maintaining its voluntary output cuts, to the point of extending them.
In September, OPEC+ postponed plans to begin gradually rolling back on the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts by two months in an effort to stem the slide of oil prices. The 2.2 million bpd cut, which was implemented over the second and third quarters, had been due to expire at the end of September.
At the start of this month, the oil cartel again decided to delay the planned oil output increase by another month to the end of December.
Oil prices have been weighed by a sluggish post-Covid recovery in demand from China, the world’s second-largest economy and leading crude oil importer. In its monthly report released Tuesday, OPEC lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast from 1.6 million barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day.
The pressured prices were also conflagrated by a perceivably oversupplied market, especially as key oil producers outside the OPEC alliance like the U.S., Canada, Guyana and Brazil are also planning to add supply, Gloystein highlighted.
Bearish year ahead for oil
The market consensus is that there’ll be a “substantial” oil stock build next year, said Citibank energy strategist Martoccia Francesco.
“Should the producers group proceed with their production plan, the market surplus could nearly double… reaching as much as 1.6 million barrels per day,” said Francesco.
Even if OPEC+ doesn’t unwind the cuts, the future ofl prices is still looking break. Citi analysts expect Brent price to average $60 per barrel next year.
Further fueling the bearish outlook is the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, whose return is associated by some with a potential trade war, said analysts who spoke to CNBC.
“If we do get a trade war — and a lot of economists think that a trade war is possible, and particularly against China — we could see much, much lower prices,” said OPIS’ Kloza.
Trump has also touted a “drill baby drill” policy for U.S. producers, vowing to cut energy prices in half.
For that to happen to retail gasoline prices, oil would need to drop to “below $40” per barrel, said Matt Smith, Kpler’s lead oil analyst.
Right now, retail gasoline prices are at a “sweet spot” at $3 per gallon, where consumers do not feel the pinch and input prices are still sufficiently high for producers, Smith added.
Science & Environment
Our lone oil-and-gas stock strikes 2 smart deals — plus, AMD sharpens its AI focus
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street.
Buy now, pay later firms like Klarna and Block’s Afterpay could be about to face tougher rules in the U.K.
Nikolas Kokovlis | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Klarna, which is known for its popular “buy now, pay later” business, announced Wednesday it has filed initial public offering documents with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The Swedish payments company said in a statement that the number of shares to be offered and the price range for the proposed offering have not yet been determined. The timing of the listing is also subject to market conditions.
Analysts recently valued the company in the $15 billion range. At its peak during the pandemic-led surge in fintech stocks, the company had a valuation of $46 billion in a funding round led by SoftBank’s Vision Fund 2.
But Klarna took an 85% haircut in its most recent primary fundraising round, in 2022, when the firm raised money on a valuation of $6.7 billion.
Next to SoftBank, Klarna’s roster of shareholders also includes major names in venture capital, including Sequoia Capital and London-based firm Atomico.
Klarna’s CEO, Sebastian Siemiatkowski, previously told CNBC in an interview that unfavorable rules in Europe on employee stock options could risk the company losing talent to other U.S. tech giants such as Google, Apple and Meta.
“When we looked at the risks of the IPO, which is a number one risk in my opinion? Our compensation,” Siemiatkowski, who is approaching his 20th year as CEO of the financial technology firm, told CNBC. He was referring to company risk factors, which are a common element of IPO prospectus filings.
Plans for an IPO have been in the works for some time. In a February interview with CNBC’s “Closing Bell” in February, Siemiatkowski said an IPO in 2024 was “not impossible.”
In August, Klarna said it posted a profit in the first half of the year, swinging into the black from a loss last year as the firm edged closer toward its hotly anticipated stock market debut.
Klarna’s decision to go for a stock market listing in New York represents a major blow to European stock exchanges, which have been trying to encourage local tech giants to list at home.
The London Stock Exchange, for example, has made reforms to make the U.K. a more attractive market for tech companies to list, including the ability for founders to issue dual-class shares that enable entrepreneurs to maintain control over a company’s strategy and direction.
Siemiatkowski hadn’t previously committed to listing in one market over another, and London was among the markets he was considering for Klarna’s IPO.
However, in 2021 he said that the firm was more likely to list in the U.S. than the U.K., given America is a high-growth area for the firm where it is seeking to gain more brand visibility.
Digital render of NEOM’s The Line project in Saudi Arabia
The Line, NEOM
Saudi Arabia’s massive Neom megaproject, a multi-trillion dollar plan to develop a swathe of land the size of Massachusetts, has replaced its CEO in a significant reshuffling as the kingdom faces questions over the economic viability of its ambitions.
Neom’s board of directors announced Tuesday the appointment of Aiman Al-Mudaifer as acting CEO of the company following the unexpected departure of Nadhmi Al-Nasr, who was put in charge of the project in 2018.
“As NEOM enters a new phase of delivery, this new leadership will ensure operational continuity, agility and efficiency to match the overall vision and objectives of the project,” a Neom statement said. It did not disclose the reason for the departure of Al-Nasr.
The region, as envisioned by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is set to host hyper-futuristic cityscapes and structures including The Line — two parallel skyscrapers measuring at more than 100 miles long — and Trojena, a mountain ski resort capable of hosting the 2029 Asian Winter Games. The projects have faced skepticism and criticism from environmentalists and engineers in other parts of the world.
Neom’s leadership reshuffle comes at a period of changing financial pressures on the kingdom, as oil prices and demand forecasts remain subdued, and Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit widens. Budgets are facing cutbacks and projects are seeing delays, three people with knowledge of the matter told CNBC, speaking anonymously due to lack of authorization to speak to the press.
NEOM map of the 500 billion dollar megacity project in Saudi Arabia along the Red Sea coast.
Peterhermesfurian | Istock | Getty Images
The Line, for instance, has been reportedly scaled back from an initial planned length of 106 miles to just 1.5 miles — which would still make it the world’s longest building. Neom executives have vocally denied these reports, calling them “false” and saying that work was continuing as planned.
“NEOM is a fundamental pillar of Saudi Vision 2030 and progress continues on all operations as planned, as we deliver the next phase of our vast portfolio of projects including THE LINE, Oxagon, Trojena, Magna and The Islands of NEOM,” the Tuesday statement from the organization said.
Saudi real GDP is expected to grow 0.8% this year, in a dramatic drop from a previous estimate of 4.4%, according to an October pre-budget report published by the Ministry of Finance. Saudi authorities also expect that the budget will remain in deficit for the next several years, as the kingdom prioritizes spending to achieve the targets of the Vision 2030 economic diversification program.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven oil price — what it needs a barrel of crude to cost in order to balance its government budget — was estimated by the International Monetary Fund to be $96.20 for 2024; a roughly 19% increase on the year before. It’s also 33% higher than the current price of a barrel of Brent crude, which was trading at around $72 as of Wednesday afternoon.
Norwegian Orca SurveyThe mystery as to why a beluga whale appeared off the coast of Norway wearing a harness may finally have been solved.
The tame white whale, which locals named Hvaldimir, made headlines five years ago amidst widespread speculation that it was a Russian spy.
Now an expert in the species says she believes the whale did indeed belong to the military and escaped from a naval base in the Arctic Circle.
But Dr Olga Shpak does not believe it was a spy. She believes the beluga was being trained to guard the base and fled because it was a “hooligan”.
Russia has always refused to confirm or deny that the beluga whale was trained by its military.
But Dr Shpak, who worked in Russia researching marine mammals from the 1990s until she returned to her native Ukraine in 2022, told BBC News: “For me it’s 100% (certain).”
Dr Shpak, whose account is based on conversations with friends and former colleagues in Russia, features in a BBC documentary, Secrets of the Spy Whale, which is now on BBC iPlayer and being shown on BBC Two on Wednesday at 21:00 GMT.
Jørgen Ree WiiigThe mysterious whale first came to public attention five years ago when it approached fishermen off the northern coast of Norway.
“The whale starts rubbing against the boat,” Joar Hesten, one of the fishermen, says. “I heard about animals in distress that instinctively knew that they need help from humans. I was thinking that this is one smart whale.”
The sighting was unusual because the beluga was so tame and they’re rarely seen as far south. It was also wearing a harness, which had a mount for a camera, and bore the words, in English, “Equipment St Petersburg”.
Mr Hesten helped to remove the harness from the whale, which then swam to the nearby port of Hammerfest, where it lived for several months.
Oxford Scientific FilmsSeemingly unable to catch live fish to eat, it charmed visitors by nudging at their cameras and even on one occasion returning a mobile phone.
“It was very obvious that this particular whale had been conditioned to be putting his nose on anything that looked like a target because he was doing it each time,” says Eve Jourdain, a researcher from the Norwegian Orca Survey.
“But we have no idea what kind of facility he was in, so we don’t know what he was trained for.”
Captivated by the whale’s story Norway made arrangements for the beluga to be monitored and fed. The name it was given – Hvaldimir – is a nod to hval which is Norwegian for whale, and the name of Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin.
Oxford Scientific FilmsDr Shpak did not want to name her sources in Russia for their own safety but said she had been told that when the beluga surfaced in Norway, the Russian marine mammal community immediately identified it as one of theirs.
“Through the chain of vets and trainers the message came back – that they were missing a beluga called Andruha,” she says.
According to Dr Shpak, Andruha/Hvaldimir had first been captured in 2013 in the Sea of Okhotsk in Russia’s Far East. A year later it was moved from a facility owned by a dolphinarium in St Petersburg to the military programme in the Russian Arctic, where his trainers and vets remained in contact.
“I believe that when they started to work in open water, trusting this animal (not to swim away), the animal just gave up on them,” she says.
“What I’ve heard from the guys at the commercial dolphinarium who used to have him was that Andruha was smart, so a good choice to be trained. But at the same time, he was kind of like a hooligan – an active beluga – so they were not surprised that he gave up on (following) the boat and went where he wanted to.”
GoogleSatellite images from near the Russian naval base in Murmansk show what could have been Hvaldimir/Andruha’s old home. Pens can clearly be seen in the water with what appear to be white whales inside.
“The location of the beluga whales very close to the submarines and the surface vessels might tell us that they are actually part of a guarding system,” says Thomas Nilsen, from Norwegian online newspaper The Barents Observer.
Russia, for its part, has never officially addressed the claim that Hvaldimir/Andruha was trained by its army. But it does have a long history of training marine mammals for military purposes.
Speaking in 2019, a Russian reserve colonel, Viktor Baranets, said: “If we were using this animal for spying, do you really think we’d attach a mobile phone number with the message ‘Please call this number’?”
Sadly, Hvaldimir/Andruha’s incredible story does not have a happy ending.
Having learned to feed himself, it spent several years travelling south along Norway’s coast and in May 2023 was even spotted off the coast of Sweden.
Then on September 1 2024 its body was found floating at sea, near the town of Risavika, on Norway’s south-western coast.
Had the long arm of Putin’s Russia caught up with the reluctant beluga?
It appears not. Despite some activist groups suggesting that the whale had been shot, that explanation has been dismissed by the Norwegian police.
They say there was nothing to suggest that human activity directly caused the beluga’s death. A post-mortem examination revealed that Hvaldimir/Andruha died after a stick became lodged in his mouth.
Science & Environment
Study finds great white sharks less likely to attack surfboards with bright lights: “Like an invisibility cloak”
Covering your surfboard in bright lights sounds like an open invitation to great white sharks, but research released Tuesday by Australian scientists found it might actually stave off attacks.
Biologist Laura Ryan said the predator often attacked its prey from underneath, occasionally mistaking a surfer’s silhouette for the outline of a seal.
Ryan and her fellow researchers showed that seal-shaped boards decked with bright horizontal lights were less likely to be attacked by great white sharks.
This appeared to be because the lights distorted the silhouette on the ocean’s surface, making it appear less appetizing.
“There is this longstanding fear of white sharks and part of that fear is that we don’t understand them that well,” said Ryan, from Australia’s Macquarie University.
The study, published in the journal Current Biology, was conducted in the waters of South Africa’s Mossel Bay, a popular great white feeding ground.
Seal-shaped decoys were strung with different configurations of LED lights and towed behind a boat to see which attracted the most attention.
Brighter lights were better at deterring sharks, the research found, while vertical lights were less effective than horizontal.
Macquarie University Professor Nathan Hart, one of the study’s authors, said the lights caused a “complex interaction” with the shark’s behavior.
“It’s like an invisibility cloak but with the exception that we are splitting the object, the visual silhouette, into smaller bits,” Hart said.
The study’s authors released a video showing some of the research in action.
Ryan said the results were better than expected and is now in the process of building prototypes for use on the underside of kayaks and surfboards.
Australia has some of the world’s most comprehensive shark management measures, including monitoring drones, shark nets and a tagging system that alerts authorities when a shark is near a crowded beach.
Ryan said her research could allow less invasive mitigation methods to be used.
More research was needed to see if bull and tiger sharks — which have different predatory behavior — responded to the lights in a similar way, the authors said.
There have been more than 1,200 shark incidents in Australia since 1791, of which 255 resulted in death, official data shows.
Great white sharks were responsible for 94 of those deaths.
The overall number of deadly shark attacks worldwide in 2023 remained relatively low, but it was still twice the previous year’s total, according to the latest iteration of the International Shark Attack File — a database of global shark attacks run by the University of Florida.
The report noted that a “disproportionate” amount of people died from shark bites in Australia last year compared with other countries around the world.
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