Science & Environment
Oil markets not pricing in an ‘all-out war’ after Israel kills Hezbollah leader
General view of the Towers and oil platforms of the State oil Company of Venezuela, Venezuelan oil Company SA.
Jose Bula Urrutia | Future Publishing | Getty Images
Oil prices didn’t react sharply on Monday after Hezbollah confirmed that its leader was killed on Friday in an Israeli airstrike in the Lebanese capital of Beirut.
Over the weekend, Israel Defense Forces reported that Hassan Nasrallah, who had led the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah for over thirty years, was killed on Friday during a “targeted strike” on the group’s headquarters in Beirut.
Hezbollah, classified as a terrorist organization by several countries including the U.S. and the UK, is known for its violent opposition to Israel and its resistance to Western influence in the Middle East, according to the U.S. Director of National Intelligence and London Assembly.
The incident follows several months of conflict and had raised concerns of a wider conflict involving Iran. The IDF characterized Nasrallah as the group’s “central decision-maker” and “strategic leader.”
But oil markets did not see a significant surge. Global benchmark Brent added 1.56% to $73.10 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures traded 1.09% higher at $68.19 per barrel.
While hostilities throughout the Middle East have ramped up, there has not been any oil supply disruption, observed Andy Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates.
“The oil market does not expect an all-out war between Iran and Israel that would impact supply,” he told CNBC via email.
Since Hamas-Israel conflict that started last year, the disruption to the oil market has been limited. The oil market also remains under pressure as increased production from the U.S. Canada and Guyana add to the supply picture, on top of stalling Chinese demand while OPEC+ delayed the restoration of their production cuts, Lipow elaborated.
“The elimination of Hezbollah leadership could trigger a response that spirals into affecting oil supplies, but since it didn’t directly affect [the oil supplies] … the oil market likely won’t price in much additional risk for now,” said Josh Young, CIO at Bison Interests.
However, both experts noted that a rapid escalation in conflict could lead to crude oil prices hitting $100 per barrel.
The biggest risk to the oil market is the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, said Lipow. While unlikely, oil prices would jump by $30 per barrel if it occurred, he added.
“If events rapidly spiral, any material disruption to Iranian oil supplies or oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices well over $100 per barrel,” said Young.
The strait, between Oman and Iran, is a vital channel where about one fifth of global oil production flows daily, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. It is a strategically important waterway linking crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the world.
Tens of thousands of people on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border have been forced to evacuate their homes due to cross-border fire in the months following Hamas’s attack on Israel on Oct. 7, with Hezbollah throwing its support behind the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
Science & Environment
UK to close last coal power station after 142 years
The UK is about to stop producing any electricity from burning coal – ending its 142-year reliance on the fossil fuel.
The country’s last coal power station, at Ratcliffe-on-Soar, finishes operations on Monday after running since 1968.
This marks a major milestone in the country’s ambitions to reduce its contribution to climate change. Coal is the dirtiest fossil fuel producing the most greenhouse gases when burnt.
Minister for Energy Michael Shanks said: “We owe generations a debt of gratitude as a country.”
The UK was the birthplace of coal power, and from tomorrow it becomes the first major economy to give it up.
“It’s a really remarkable day, because Britain, after all, built her whole strength on coal, that is the industrial revolution,” said Lord Deben – the longest serving environment secretary.
The first coal-fired power station in the world, the Holborn Viaduct power station, was built in 1882 in London by the inventor Thomas Edison – bringing light to the streets of the capital.
From that point through the first half of the twentieth century, coal provided pretty much all of the UK’s electricity, powering homes and businesses.
But from the 1960s things began to change. New discoveries of oil and gas were made in the North Sea offering a new, cheap source of energy, whilst the country’s coal mines were becoming less globally competitive and successive governments began closing them.
In the early 1990s, coal began to be forced out of the electricity mix by gas, but coal still remained a crucial component of the UK grid for the next two decades.
In 2012, it still generated 39% of the UK’s power.
The growth of renewables
But the science around climate change was growing – it was clear that the world’s greenhouse gas emissions needed to be reduced and as the dirtiest fossil fuel, coal was a major target.
In 2008, the UK established its first legally binding climate targets and in 2015 the then-energy and climate change secretary, Amber Rudd, told the world the UK would be ending its use of coal power within the next decade.
Dave Jones, director of global insights at Ember, an independent energy think tank, said this really helped to “set in motion” the end of coal by providing a clear direction of travel for the industry.
But it also showed leadership and set a benchmark for other countries to follow, according to Lord Deben.
“I think it’s made a big difference, because you need someone to point to and say, ‘There, they’ve done it. Why can’t we do it?’”, he said.
In 2010, renewables generated just 7% of the UK’s power. In the first half of 2024, this had grown to more than 50% – a new record.
The rapid growth of green power meant that coal could even be switched off completely for short periods, beginning in 2017.
The growth of renewables has been so successful that the target date for ending coal power was brought forward a year, and on Monday, Ratcliffe-on-Soar, was set to close for the last time.
Chris Smith worked at the plant for 28 years in the environment and chemistry team. She said: “It is a very momentous day. The plant has always been running and we’ve always been doing our best to keep it operating….It is a very sad moment.”
Lord Deben served in former prime minister Margaret Thatcher’s government when many of the UK’s coal mines were closed and thousands of workers lost their jobs. He said lessons had to be learnt from that for current workers in the fossil fuel industry.
“I’m particularly keen on the way in which this Government, and indeed the previous Government, is trying to make sure that the new jobs, of which there are very many green jobs, go to the places which are being damaged by the changes.
“So in the North Sea oil areas, that’s exactly where we should be doing carbon capture and storage, it’s where we should be putting wind and solar power,” he said.
Challenges ahead
Although coal is a very polluting source of energy, its benefit has been in being available at all times – unlike wind and solar which are limited by weather conditions.
Kayte O’Neill, the chief operating officer at the Energy System Operator – the body overseeing the UK’s electricity system – said: “There is a whole load of innovation required to help us ensure the stability of the grid. Keeping the lights on in a secure way.”
A crucial technology providing that stability Kayte O’Neill spoke of is battery technology.
Dr Sylwia Walus, research programme manager at the Faraday Institution, said that there has been significant progress in the science of batteries.
“There is always scope for a new technology, but more focus these days is really how to make it more sustainable and cheaper in production,” she said.
To achieve this the UK needs to become more independent of China in producing its own batteries and bringing in skilled workers for this purpose, she explained.
Additional reporting by Miho Tanaka and Justin Rowlatt
Science & Environment
Michigan nuclear plant finalizes federal loan to support first reactor restart in U.S. history
The Palisades Nuclear Generating Station in Covert, Mich.
John Madill | The Herald-Palladium | AP
The Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan has closed a $1.5 billion loan to support the first reactor restart in U.S. history, the Department of Energy announced Monday.
Palisades’ owner, Holtec International, hopes to restart the plant in the fourth quarter of 2025, subject to approval by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Holtec is a privately held nuclear technology company headquartered in Jupiter, Florida.
“All necessary funding has now been secured,” said Nick Culp, a Holtec spokesperson. The company will use the funds for inspections, testing, restoration, rebuilding, replacement of equipment at the plant, according to the Department of Energy.
Holtec has completed all major licensing submittals to the NRC, Culp said. Company executives expect to receive a response from the NRC sometime in 2025, he said.
The restart of the reactor at Palisades would mark a milestone for the nuclear industry after a decadelong wave of reactor shutdowns in the U.S. Palisades ceased operations in 2022 as nuclear efforts struggled to compete with cheap and abundant natural gas.
Demand for nuclear power is growing as the U.S. seeks carbon-free energy to meet rising electricity demand while meeting its climate goals. The planned restart at Palisades blazed a path for Constellation Energy‘s recent decision to bring Three Mile Island back online by 2028.
“We’ve been using all of the tools in our tool belt to support the nuclear energy sector, keep reactors online, and to bring them back, and to finance advanced reactor deployment as well,” David Turk, deputy secretary at the Department of Energy, told reporters on a call ahead of the announcement.
Electricity demand is expected to increase about 15% over the next few years as artificial intelligence drives the need for data centers and domestic manufacturing continues expanding, Turk said.
Microsoft has agreed to purchase power from Three Mile Island to help power its data centers. In the case of Palisades, the power is spoken for by Wolverine Power Cooperative, a nonprofit that provides electricity to rural communities in Michigan.
Palisades will support 600 jobs in Covert Township near Lake Michigan and provide enough power for 800,000 homes, Turk said.
Holtec plans to nearly double the capacity of Palisades in the 2030s by building new designs called small modular reactors at the site. These smaller reactors, which are prefabricated in several pieces, promise to speed deployment of nuclear by reducing costs and making plants simpler to operate.
Science & Environment
SpaceX capsule docks at ISS to collect stranded astronauts
A SpaceX capsule sent to bring back two astronauts stranded on the International Space Station (ISS) has docked.
The Dragon capsule, which has two empty seats for Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, docked at 17:30 eastern time (22:30 BST).
The pair arrived at the station on Boeing’s new Starliner capsule for an eight-day mission in June, but were forced to remain there because of a fault discovered during the flight.
They are now expected to return to Earth in February.
The Dragon capsule lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida on Saturday carrying Nasa astronaut Nick Hague and Russian cosmonaut Alexander Gorbunov.
Hague, who has done a previous stint on the ISS, and Gorbunov will join the space station’s crew before taking Wilmore and Williams back to Earth.
The launch had been scheduled for Thursday but was delayed because of Hurricane Helene, which has caused huge destruction across the south-eastern US, including Florida, in recent days.
The docking occurred as the space station flew 265 miles (426km) above Botswana in southern Africa.
Footage from inside the ISS showed Hague and Gorbunov smiling and posing for photos with the rest of the crew after their arrival.
The original Starliner flight, which launched on 5 June, was that capsule’s first test flight with astronauts on board and Boeing’s first attempt to take astronauts to the ISS.
During the flight it experienced a number of problems, including leaks of helium – which is used in its propulsion system – and issues with several of its thrusters.
Engineers at Boeing and Nasa spent months investigating, but in late August Nasa decided that it would not be safe to try to bring Wilmore and Williams home aboard the Starliner.
The capsule had already been delayed for several years because of setbacks during its development, as well as issues discovered during uncrewed test flights in 2019 and 2022.
Nasa retired its space shuttle fleet in 2011, leaving the agency reliant on Russia’s Soyuz craft to get to and from the ISS.
Having two American companies to perform the missions has been a key goal for some time, and in 2014 Boeing and SpaceX were awarded contracts worth $4.2bn (£3.2bn) and $2.6bn (£2bn) respectively.
In 2020, SpaceX – founded by billionaire Elon Musk – became the first private company to take astronauts to the ISS.
Science & Environment
How trip to Titanic turned from smiles to tragedy
“I saw five people smiling, looking forward to their journey.”
That was Renata Rojas’ recollection of her time on a support ship with five people bound for the Titanic wreck. They were about to climb into a submersible made by Oceangate.
Just 90 minutes later, these five would become the victims of a deep sea disaster: an implosion. Images from the depths of the Atlantic show the wreckage of the sub crushed, mangled, and scattered across the sea floor.
The photos were released by the US Coast Guard during an inquiry to establish what led to its catastrophic failure in June 2023.
The inquiry finished on Friday and over the past two weeks of hearings, a picture has emerged of ignored safety warnings and a history of technical problems. We have also gained new insight into the final hours of those on board.
It has shown us that this story won’t go away any time soon.
Passengers unaware of impending disaster
British explorer Hamish Harding and British-Pakistani businessman Shahzada Dawood, who’d brought his 19-year-old son Suleman along, had paid Oceangate for a dive to see the Titanic which lies 3,800m down.
The sub was piloted by the company’s CEO Stockton Rush with French Titanic expert Paul-Henri Nargeolet as co-pilot.
Once the craft had slipped beneath the waves, it could send short text messages to the surface. A message sent from about 2,300m said “All good here”.
About an hour and a half into the dive, from 3,346m, Titan’s final message reported it had released two weights to slow its descent as it neared the sea floor.
Communications were then lost – the sub had imploded.
The US Coast Guard said nothing in the messages that indicated that the passengers knew their craft was failing.
The implosion was instantaneous. There would have been no time to even register what was happening.
Unorthodox sub was flawed from the start
Mr Rush proudly described the Titan as “experimental”. But others had voiced their concerns to him about its unconventional design in the years prior to the dive.
At the hearing David Lochridge, Oceangate’s former director of marine operations, described Titan as an “abomination”.
In 2018, he’d compiled a report highlighting multiple safety issues, but said these concerns were dismissed and he was fired.
Titan had several unusual features.
The shape of its hull – the part where the passengers were – was cylindrical rather than spherical so the effects of the pressure were not distributed evenly.
A window was installed but only considered safe down to 1,300m. The US Coast Guard also heard about problems with the joins between different parts of the sub.
The hull’s material attracted the most attention – it was made from layers of carbon fibre mixed with resin.
Roy Thomas from the American Bureau of Shipping said carbon fibre was not approved for deep sea subs because it can weaken with every dive and fail suddenly without warning.
The National Transportation and Safety Board (NTSB) presented an analysis of samples of Titan’s hull left over from its construction.
It showed areas where the carbon fibre layers had separated – a known problem called delamination – as well as wrinkles, waviness and voids within its structure.
This suggests the material contained imperfections before the sub had even made a dive.
The NTSB team also saw this delamination in wreckage found on the seafloor.
Most of the hull was destroyed, but in the pieces that survived, the carbon fibre has split into layers and in some places had cracked.
Officials are not currently saying the hull’s failure caused the implosion, but it’s a key focus of the investigation.
Loud bang – a missed warning sign
A place on the sub cost up to $250,000 (£186,000) – and over the course of 2021 and 2022 Titan made 23 dives, 12 of which successfully reached the wreck of the Titanic.
But these descents were far from problem free. A dive log book recorded 118 technical faults, ranging from thrusters failing, to batteries dying – and once the front dome of the sub fell off.
The investigation focused on a dive that took place in 2022, when paying passenger Fred Hagen heard an “alarming” noise as the sub was returning to the surface.
“We were still underwater and there was a large bang or cracking sound,” he said.
“We were all concerned that maybe there was a crack in the hull.”
He said Mr Rush thought the noise was the sub shifting in the metal frame that surrounded it.
The US Coast Guard inquiry was shown new analysis of data from the sub’s sensors, suggesting the noise was caused by a change in the fabric of the hull.
This affected how Titan was able to respond to the pressures of the deep.
Phil Brooks, Oceangate’s former Engineering Director, said the craft wasn’t properly checked after that dive because the company was struggling financially, and instead it was left for months on the dockside in Canada.
Boss was convinced his sub was safe
“I’m not dying. No-one is dying on my watch – period.”
These were the words of Mr Rush in a 2018 transcript of a meeting at Oceangate HQ.
When questioned about Titan’s safety, he replied: “I understand this kind of risk, and I’m going into it with eyes open and I think this is one of the safest things I will ever do.”
According to some witnesses Mr Rush had an unwavering belief in his sub. They described a dominating personality who wouldn’t tolerate dissenting views.
“Stockton would fight for what he wanted… and he wouldn’t give an inch much at all,” said Tony Nissen, a former engineering director.
“Most people would just eventually back down from Stockton.”
Passenger Fred Hagen disagreed, describing Mr Rush as a “brilliant man”.
“Stockton made a very conscious and astute effort to maintain a perceptible culture of safety around a high risk environment.”
US authorities knew of safety concerns
Former employee David Lochridge was so worried about Titan that he went to the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA).
This is the US government body that sets and enforces workplace safety standards.
Correspondence reveals that he provided extensive information about the sub’s problems – and was placed on OSHA’s whistleblower witness protection scheme.
But he said OSHA were slow and failed to act, and after increasing pressure from Oceangate’s lawyers, he dropped the case and signed a non disclosure agreement.
He told the hearing: “I believe that if OSHA had attempted to investigate the seriousness of the concerns I raised on multiple occasions this tragedy may have been prevented.”
Sub safety rules need to change
Deep-sea subs can undergo an extensive safety assessment by independent marine organisations such as the American Bureau of Shipping (ABS) or DNV (a global accreditation organisation based in Norway).
Almost all operators complete this certification process, but Oceangate chose not to for Titan. At the hearing, some industry experts called for it to become compulsory.
“I think as long as we insist on certification as a requirement for continued human occupied exploration in the deep sea we can avoid these kinds of tragic outcomes,” said Patrick Lahey, CEO of Triton submarines.
Story isn’t over yet
Witnesses at the hearing included former Oceangate employees, paying passengers who’d made dives in the sub, industry experts and those involved in the search and rescue effort.
But some key people were noticeably missing.
Mr Rush’s wife Wendy, who was Oceangate’s communications director and played a central role in the company, did not appear. Nor did director of operations and sub pilot Scott Griffith or former US Coast Guard Rear Admiral John Lockwood, who was on Oceangate’s board.
The reasons for their absences were not given and their version of events remain unheard.
The US Coast Guard will now put together a final report with the aim of preventing a disaster like this from ever happening again.
But the story will not end there.
Criminal prosecutions may follow. And private lawsuits too – the family of French diver PH Nargeolet is already suing for more than $50 million.
The ripples from this deep sea tragedy are likely to continue for many years.
Science & Environment
SpaceX capsule begins rescue mission to return stranded astronauts
SpaceX has launched its mission to bring back two astronauts stranded on the International Space Station (ISS) since June.
The Dragon capsule, which has two empty seats for Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida on Saturday.
The pair’s mission at the space station had only been expected to last about eight days but after a fault was found on the new Boeing Starliner it returned to Earth empty as a precaution.
Nasa astronaut Nick Hague and Russian cosmonaut Alexander Gorbunov are flying with fresh supplies for Butch and Suni and expect to bring them home in February.
The Dragon launch had been scheduled for Thursday but was delayed because of Hurricane Helene, which has left a trail of destruction through Florida, north through Georgia and into Tennessee and the Carolinas.
SpaceX, founded by billionaire Elon Musk, has been ferrying crews to and from the ISS every six months.
The Dragon is expected to dock with the ISS on Sunday at around 21:30 GMT.
Under a contract between Nasa and Roscosmos, the Russian federal space agency, three-seat Russian Soyuz spacecraft carry one Nasa astronaut on each flight to the ISS and a cosmonaut flies on each four-seat Dragon.
Science & Environment
Book excerpt: “Revenge of the Tipping Point” by Malcolm Gladwell
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In 2000, Malcolm Gladwell published the first of several bestselling books, “The Tipping Point,” in which he applied the laws of epidemics to promote positive social change. Now, he’s returned to that optimistic book’s lessons in “Revenge of the Tipping Point” (to be published October 1 by Little, Brown & Co.), to examine the flip side of those theories.
The new book’s topics range from cheetah reproduction and the Harvard women’s rugby team to the Holocaust.
Read the excerpt below, and don’t miss David Pogue’s interview with Malcolm Gladwell on “CBS Sunday Morning” September 29!
“Revenge of the Tipping Point” by Malcolm Gladwell
Prefer to listen? Audible has a 30-day free trial available right now.
In the 1970s, zookeepers around the world began to invest more and more resources in breeding their animal populations in captivity. The logic was clear. Why go to all the trouble of capturing animals in the wild? The growing conservation movement also favored breeding programs. The new strategy was a big success — with one big outlier: the cheetah.
“They seldom had offspring that survived, and many of them when put together couldn’t breed,” remembers the geneticist Stephen O’Brien, who was then working at the National Cancer Institute.
It didn’t make sense. The cheetah seemed a perfect example of evolutionary fitness: a massive nuclear reactor for a heart, the legs of a greyhound, a skull shaped like a professional cyclist’s aerodynamic helmet, and semi-retractable claws that, as O’Brien puts it, “grip the earth like football cleats as they race after their prey at sixty miles per hour.”
“It’s the fastest animal on earth,” O’Brien said. “The second fastest animal on earth is the American pronghorn. And the reason that it’s the second-fastest is that it was running from the cheetahs.”
The zookeepers wondered if they were doing something wrong, or whether there was something about the make-up of the cheetah that they didn’t understand. They came up with theories and tried experiments — all to no avail. In the end, they shrugged and said that the animals must be “skittish.”
Things came to a head at a meeting in 1980 in Front Royal, Virginia. Zoo directors from around the world were there, among them the head of a big wildlife-conservation program in South Africa.
“And he says, ‘Do you have anybody that knows what they’re doing scientifically?’ ” O’Brien remembers. ” ‘[To] basically explain to us why our breeding program of cheetahs in South Africa has something like 15 percent success while the rest of these animals — elephants and horses and giraffes — they breed like rats?’ “
Two scientists raised their hands — both colleagues of O’Brien’s. They flew to South Africa, to a big wildlife sanctuary near Pretoria. They took blood and sperm samples from dozens of cheetahs. What they found astonished them. The sperm counts of the cheetahs were low. And the spermatozoa themselves were badly malformed. That was clearly why the animals had such trouble breeding. It wasn’t that they were “skittish.”
But why? O’Brien’s laboratory then began testing the blood samples that had been sent to them. They had done similar studies in the past on birds, humans, horses, and domestic cats, and in all those cases the animals showed a healthy degree of genetic diversity: In most species, around 30 percent of sampled genes will show some degree of variation. The cheetah’s genes looked nothing like that. They were all the same. “I never saw a species that was so genetically uniform,” O’Brien said.
O’Brien’s findings were greeted with skepticism by his colleagues. So he and his team kept going.
“I went down to Children’s Hospital in Washington and I learned how to do skin grafts at a burn unit,” he said. “They taught me how to keep it sterile and how to take the . . . slices and how to suture it up and everything. And then we did [skin grafts on] about eight cheetahs in South Africa, and then we did another six or eight in Oregon.”
Winston, Oregon, was home to the Wildlife Safari, the largest collection of cheetahs in the United States at the time.
The idea was simple. If you graft a piece of skin from one animal onto another, the recipient’s body will reject it. It will recognize the genes of the donor as foreign. “It would blacken and slough off in two weeks,” O’Brien said. But if you take a patch of skin from, say, one identical twin and graft it onto another, it will work. The donor’s immune system thinks the skin is its own. This was the ultimate test of his hypothesis.
The grafts were small — one inch by one inch, sewn onto the side of the animal’s chest, protected by an elastic bandage wrapped around the cat’s body. First, the team gave some of the cheetahs a skin graft from a domestic cat, just to make sure the animals had an immune system. Sure enough, the cheetahs rejected the cat graft: It got inflamed, then necrotic. Their bodies knew what different was — and a domestic cat was different. Then the team grafted skin from other cheetahs. What happened? Nothing! They were accepted, O’Brien said, “as if they were identical twins. The only place you see that is in inbred mice that have been brother-sister mated for twenty generations. And that convinced me.”
O’Brien realized that the world’s cheetah population must have at some point been devastated. His best guess was that it happened during the great mammal die-off 12,000 years ago — when saber-toothed cats, mastodons, mammoths, giant ground sloths, and over thirty other species were wiped out by an ice age. Somehow the cheetah survived. But just barely.
“The numbers that fit all the data are less than one hundred, maybe less than fifty,” O’Brien said. It’s possible, in fact, that the cheetah population was reduced to a single pregnant female. And the only way for those lonely few cheetahs to survive was to overcome the inhibition that most mammals have against incest: Sisters had to mate with brothers, first cousins with first cousins. The species eventually rebounded, but only through the endless replication of the same narrow set of genes. The cheetah was still magnificent. But now every cheetah represented the exact same kind of magnificence.
From “Revenge of the Tipping Point: Overstories, Superspreaders, and the Rise of Social Engineering” by Malcolm Gladwell. Copyright © 2024 by Malcolm Gladwell. Reprinted by permission of Little, Brown and Company, a division of Hachette Book Group. All rights reserved.
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“Revenge of the Tipping Point” by Malcolm Gladwell
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