Science & Environment
World falling “miles short’ of emissions goals to curb climate change, U.N. says, sounding the alarm
Paris — Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere reached record highs in 2023, the United Nations warned on Monday, saying countries are falling “miles short” of what’s needed to curb devastating global warming.
Levels of the three main greenhouse gases — heat-trapping carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide — all increased yet again last year, said the World Meteorological Organization, the U.N.’s weather and climate agency.
Carbon dioxide was accumulating in the atmosphere faster than ever, up more than 10 percent in two decades, it added.
And a separate U.N. report found that barely a dent is being made in the 43 percent emissions cut needed by 2030 to avert the worst of global warming.
Action as it stands would only lead to a 2.6 percent reduction this decade from 2019 levels.
“The report’s findings are stark but not surprising — current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country,” said U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell.
The two reports come just weeks before the United Nations COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan and as nations prepare to submit updated national climate plans in early 2025.
“Bolder” plans to slash the pollution that drives warming will now have to be drawn up, Stiell said, calling for the end of “the era of inadequacy.”
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries said they would cap global warming at “well below” two degrees Celsius above average levels measured between 1850 and 1900 — and 1.5C if possible.
But so far, their actions have failed to meet that challenge.
Existing national commitments would see 51.5 billion tons of CO2 and its equivalent in other greenhouse gases emitted in 2030 — levels that would “guarantee a human and economic trainwreck for every country, without exception,” Stiell said.
As long as emissions continue, greenhouse gases will keep accumulating in the atmosphere, raising global temperatures, WMO said.
Last year, global temperatures on land and sea were the highest in records dating as far back as 1850, it added.
WMO chief Celeste Saulo said the world was “clearly off track” to meet the Paris Agreement goal, adding that record greenhouse gas concentrations “should set alarm bells ringing among decision-makers.”
“CO2 is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than at any time during human existence,” the report said, adding that the current atmospheric CO2 level was 51 percent above that of the pre-industrial era.
The last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was three to five million years ago, when the temperature was two to three degrees Centigrade warmer and the sea level was 65 feet higher than now, it said.
Given how long CO2 lasts in the atmosphere, current temperature levels will continue for decades, even if emissions rapidly shrink to net zero.
In 2023, CO2 concentrations were at 420 parts per million (ppm), methane at 1,934 parts per billion, and nitrous oxide at 336 parts per billion.
CO2 accounts for about 64 percent of the warming effect on the climate.
Its annual increase of 2.3 ppm marked the 12th consecutive year with an increase greater than two ppm — a streak caused by “historically large fossil fuel CO2 emissions in the 2010s and 2020s,” the report said.
Just under half of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere, while the rest are absorbed by the ocean and land ecosystems.
Climate change itself could soon “cause ecosystems to become larger sources of greenhouse gases,” WMO deputy chief Ko Barret warned.
“Wildfires could release more carbon emissions into the atmosphere, whilst the warmer ocean might absorb less CO2. Consequently, more CO2 could stay in the atmosphere to accelerate global warming.
Science & Environment
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Science & Environment
World way off target to limit warming says UN
Global efforts to tackle climate change are wildly off track, says the UN, as new data shows that warming gases are accumulating faster than at any time in human existence.
Current national plans to limit carbon emissions would barely cut pollution by 2030, the UN analysis shows, leaving efforts to keep warming under 1.5C this century in tatters.
The update comes as a separate report shows that greenhouse gases have risen by over 11% in the last two decades, with atmospheric concentrations surging in 2023.
Researchers are also worried that forests are losing their ability to soak up carbon, which could be contributing to record levels of warming gas in the atmosphere.
UN Climate Change, the UN agency tasked with adressing the issue, has carried out an analysis on the carbon cutting plans that have been submitted by close to 200 countries.
The UN wants to see how much progress is being made in driving down emissions that are threatening to push global temperatures well above 1.5C this century, a level beyond which scientists say extremely damaging impacts will occur.
Right now, when the plans are added up, they indicate that emissions will likely fall by just 2.6% by 2030 compared to 2019.
This is far short of the 43% reduction that scientists say will be needed by the end of this decade to keep the world on track for net-zero carbon by 2050.
“The report’s findings are stark but not surprising,” said Simon Stiell, executive secretary of UN Climate Change.
“Current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy, and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country.”
The UN says that countries are expected to submit new, stronger plans by Spring next year – discussions about increasing the ambition of these efforts will be a major theme when world leaders gather at the next UN climate conference, COP29 in Azerbaijan next month.
Forest feedback loop
Adding to the concerns about the way the world is handling climate change, the World Meteorological Organisation says that concentrations of greenhouse gases reached a record high in 2023.
The rise last year was higher than the previous 12 months, due to record fires in Canada, and the onset of the El Niño weather event all adding to ongoing emissions from fossil fuels.
But the WMO’s scientists also says they have seen some evidence that as the world gets warmer, trees are not able to soak up the same level of CO2 as they once were.
Data indicates that the southeastern Amazon has now turned from a carbon sink to a source.
“In the Amazon, deforestation means you lose the forest,” said Dr Oksana Tarasova from the WMO.
“Then the temperature started increasing, then the air circulation pattern changes. There is less precipitation, less uptake of CO2, that means more CO2 stays in the atmosphere.”
The Amazon is one example of what scientists call a climate feedback – where rising temperatures can act on natural systems to enhance the causes of warming.
So if the forests and the oceans become less able to soak up CO2, global warming could accelerate more rapidly.
“We do see some clear signals. We cannot say it’s 100% climate feedbacks because there’s substantial variability because of El Niño and La Niña weather events, but we are seeing something happening in the system,” said Oksana Tarasova.
The WMO says that the last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of carbon in the atmosphere was 3-5 million year ago – when average temperatures were 2-3C warmer than they are now, and sea levels were 10-20 metres higher.
Science & Environment
Nasdaq hits high even amid poor earnings growth
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 22, 2024 in New York City.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
New high for Nasdaq
On Friday, the Nasdaq Composite hit an all-time high, but the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell and snapped their six-week winning streaks. Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped about 1.8% and the yen weakened to a three-month low against the dollar on the back of the country’s election results.
Steepest drop since pandemic
China’s industrial profits in September slumped 27.1% from a year ago, according to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics. That’s the steepest drop since the start of the pandemic in March 2020, based on data from Wind Information – which excludes statistics from most of 2022 when China was under strict zero-Covid policies.
Oil prices dropped on ‘limited damage’
Prices for both Brent and West Texas Intermediate oil futures dropped more than 4% on Monday. This comes after Iranian media described Israel’s strikes over the weekend on its military installations as causing “limited damage.” Citi lowered its forecast for Brent oil prices by $4 to $70 per barrel over the next three months.
Japan’s ruling coalition loses parliamentary majority
Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party and its Komeito partner will lose their parliamentary majority, according to projections from public broadcaster NHK and publication Nikkei Asia, while the opposition camp made significant gains. The Japanese yen fell against the U.S. dollar on the political uncertainty.
[PRO] Very, very busy week for markets
This week is jam-packed with important earnings and economic data. Five of the Magnificent Seven companies report earnings. The personal consumption expenditures index report for September and the key jobs report for October will also be released this week.
The bottom line
The Nasdaq Composite managed to log a seventh consecutive winning week.
After adding 0.56% on Friday, the index closed at an all-time high, ending the week 0.2% higher.
Other major U.S. indexes, however, didn’t do so well. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average shattered their six-week positive streak following their falls on Friday.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq was boosted by Tesla’s monster rally. Investors also looked ahead to Big Tech earnings coming out this week: shares of Meta, Amazon and Microsoft added as much as 1%.
Earnings season has been a mixed bag so far. Even though almost three-quarters of S&P companies have beaten expectations, according to FactSet data, the rate of profit growth has not met expectations, disappointing investors.
Tesla had a monster rally over two days last week, which helped it regain all its losses for the year. But more than half of the 20-largest companies saw their stocks fall after they announced their financials last week, notes CNBC’s Pia Singh.
As those companies were mostly from sectors outside tech, their losses dragged down the S&P and the Dow, especially, since a good proportion were constituents of the 30-stock index. In fact, around 90% of Dow members ended the week in the red.
For instance, Coca-Cola surpassed Wall Street’s estimates of its earnings and revenue, but its shares still fell. Investors were perhaps disappointed by news that consumers are buying fewer packs of Coke products, as CEO James Quincey said during the post-earnings conference call, and troubled by the headwinds that the company thinks will hamper its growth in 2025.
With five of the Magnificent Seven companies reporting earnings and crucial economic data coming out this week, investors will hope all the numbers line up for a payout – if not of the jackpot magnitude, then at least one that jolts the S&P and Dow back into the green again.
— CNBC’s Brian Evans, Pia Singh and Alex Harring contributed to this report.
Science & Environment
Foreign investors flock to flagship Saudi economic conference
A delegate arrives at the King Abdulaziz Conference Centre in Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh to attend the Future Investment Initiative (FII) forum on October 29, 2019. – Top finance moguls and political leaders were expected at a Davos-style Saudi investment summit in stark contrast to last year when outrage over critic Jamal Khashoggi’s murder sparked a mass boycott. Organisers say 300 speakers from over 30 countries, including American officials and heads of global banks and major sovereign wealth funds, are attending the three-day forum. (Photo by FAYEZ NURELDINE / AFP) (Photo by FAYEZ NURELDINE/AFP via Getty Images)
Fayez Nureldine | Afp | Getty Images
Thousands of financiers, founders and investors are set to descend on the Saudi capital of Riyadh for the eighth edition of the kingdom’s Future Investment Initiative, the flagship economic conference at the heart of Vision 2030 — the multi-trillion dollar plan to modernize and diversify Saudi Arabia’s economy.
Described in past years by some attendees as a bonanza for Saudi cash, fund managers who spoke to CNBC this year draw a distinctly different picture as the kingdom simultaneously upholds more requirements for prospective fundraisers and investors, while also facing a revenue crunch amid lower oil prices and production.
“Without question, it’s gotten way more competitive to attract money from the kingdom,” Omar Yacoub, a partner at U.S.-based investment firm ABS Global, which manages nearly $8 billion in assets, told CNBC. “Everyone and anyone has been going to ‘kiss the rings,’ so to speak, in Riyadh.”
“Competition for capital has heated up, combined with other factors such as Saudis always having a ‘home bias’ towards investing, plus the broader dynamic of a tighter budget throughout the kingdom due to lower oil prices,” Yacoub said. “This has meant that investing internationally has become much more selective.”
As Saudi Arabia moves full steam ahead with its focus on domestic investment, it’s introduced more stringent conditions for foreigners coming to the kingdom to take capital elsewhere. The kingdom’s $925 billion sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund, saw its assets jump 29% to 2.87 trillion Saudi riyals ($765.2 billion) in 2023 — and local investment was a major driver.
Saudi Arabia’s recently-updated Investment Law seeks to attract more foreign investment as well — and it’s set itself a lofty target of $100 billion in annual foreign direct investment by 2030. Currently, that figure is still a long way from that goal as foreign investment has averaged around $12 billion per year since Vision 2030 was announced in 2017.
“It’s no longer about ‘take our money and leave’ — it’s about adding value,” said Fadi Arbid, founding partner and chief investment officer of Dubai-based investment manager Amwal Capital Partners. “Value meaning hiring, developing the asset management ecosystem, creating new products, bringing in talent, and investing in Saudi capital markets also. So it’s multi-faceted investment, not only a pure financial transaction. It’s beyond that.”
‘More disciplined, more rational’
At the same time, the kingdom is taking clear steps to scale back spending, as oil prices fall well below its fiscal breakeven figure and it continues with crude production cuts agreed upon by OPEC+.
That fiscal breakeven oil price — what the kingdom needs a barrel of crude to cost in order to balance its government budget — has risen sharply as Saudi Arabia pours trillions of dollars into giga-project NEOM.
The IMF’s latest forecast in April, put that breakeven figure at $96.20 for 2024; a roughly 19% increase on the year before, and about 28% higher than the current price of a barrel of Brent crude, which was trading at around $72.75 as of Monday morning.
“I don’t think Saudi has the same means that they had literally two years ago,” one regional investor, who requested anonymity in order to speak freely, said. Nonetheless, they added, the kingdom “remains one of the very few countries that still have money to give. It might be somewhat on pause today, but … now it’s more disciplined, more rational.”
Some fund managers with years of experience in the Gulf suggested it may be too little too late for many of the investors making their first forays to the kingdom.
“You should have started that process two, three, four years ago,” Arbid said. However, he added, “For those that are coming in queue now, that doesn’t mean that they shouldn’t position — because it’s a cycle, right? But now, I think they’re more deliberate about it — they say you need to commit to the country.”
One example is the kingdom’s headquarters law, which went into effect on Jan. 1, 2024, and requires foreign companies operating in the Gulf to base their Middle Eastern HQ offices in Riyadh if they want contracts with the Saudi government.
In the shadow of regional war
The glitzy conference, held in the opulent Ritz-Carlton Riyadh, also takes place against the backdrop of regional war and just over a year after Israel launched its war on Hamas in Gaza.
In that time, attacks between Israel and Iranian proxies including Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis have soared, with the Jewish state invading Lebanon in September. The region has been on tenterhooks awaiting Israel’s avowed revenge against Iran for its missile barrage over Tel Aviv and other parts of the country on Oct. 1.
Early on Saturday, Israel struck military sites in Iran targeting missile manufacturing factories. Israel’s military later said it had completed “targeted” attacks in Iran, adding that it was ready to “conduct defensive and offensive action.”
Oil prices and the Saudi economy appear to so far have stayed largely unscathed, dropping 4% early Monday after Israel’s weekend strike on Iran. A key reason for that may be the rapprochement deal the kingdom signed with Iran, brokered by China, in March 2023.
“Saudi has done a phenomenal job recently of shielding itself from geopolitical events,” Arbid said.
That is also aided by the fact that local investors make up the majority of market participants, and local investor confidence is strong. The Tadawul All Shares Index, Saudi Arabia’s leading stock market index, is up 16.48% in the last year.
Still, some analysts in the region warn that the expanding crises in the Middle East have the potential to cause further instability.
“The war has gradually escalated to the point where there is a de-facto regional war,” Aziz Alghashian, director of research at the Observer Research Foundation Middle East, told CNBC. “The ongoing war is not only a geopolitical crisis, but the continuation of it has potential to create more radicalization in and around the region.”
“Attracting FDI and tourism, while maintaining oil prices at a desired level, are key for keeping Saudi Arabia’s mega projects and diversification plans on track,” Alghashian said.
“This of course is complicated by regional war, and so economy and security go very much hand in hand.”
Science & Environment
Oil slides over 4% as Israel’s attack on Iran unlikely to disrupt supplies
View of Iran’s oil industry installations in Mahshahr, Khuzestan province, southern Iran.
Kaveh Kazemi | Getty Images
Oil prices will remain under pressure for the rest of this year, it may be difficult to see Brent crude oil prices reaching $80 in the foreseeable future.
Andy Lipow
president at Lipow Oil Associates
“The recent Israel military action is unlikely to be seen by the market as leading to an escalation that impacts oil supply,” Citi analysts wrote in a note on Monday, cutting the bank’s Brent oil forecast by $4 to $70 per barrel over the next three months.
Oil markets are also staring at an oversupply. “With Israel deliberately, and perhaps with some American encouragement, avoiding the targeting of crude oil facilities, the oil market is back to looking at an oversupplied market,” said Andy Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates.
Oil production has been increasing not just in key countries such as U.S., Canada and Brazil, but even among smaller players such as Argentina and Senegal, he added.
“Oil prices will remain under pressure for the rest of this year, it may be difficult to see Brent crude oil prices reaching $80 in the foreseeable future,” Lipow told CNBC via email.
The risk premium has come off a few dollars a barrel as the more limited nature of the strikes, including avoiding oil infrastructure, have raised hopes for a de-escalatory pathway, said Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee.
Oil prices year-to-date
The spotlight now will be on whether Iran will counter the attack in the coming weeks, which would see risk premium rise again, Kavonic told CNBC, noting that the overall trend still remains one of escalation, with the scope for another round of attacks remaining high.
During a cabinet meeting on Sunday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized Iran’s right to react to Israel’s attack, but maintained that they do not seek war.
“We do not seek war, but we will defend our country and the rights of our people. We will give a proportionate response to the aggression,” he said.
Market attention will turn to Hamas‑Israel and Israel‑Hezbollah ceasefire talks that resumed over the weekend, director of mining and energy commodities research at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Vivek Dhar said.
“Despite Israel’s choice of a low‑aggression response to Iran, we have doubts that Israel and Iran’s proxies (i.e. Hamas and Hezbollah) are on track for an enduring ceasefire,” Dhar wrote in a note.
Science & Environment
Big cut in UK emissions needed, says watchdog
The UK needs to make huge cuts to its greenhouse gas emissions this decade to help the world avoid the worst impacts of rising temperatures, the government’s climate watchdog has said.
The Climate Change Committee (CCC) says the UK has the technologies to do this, but meeting the goal would require much greater investment in renewable energy, electric cars and heat pumps.
While the UK has already cut its emissions by more than 50% since 1990, the CCC says it should extend this to 81% by 2035, which would make a “credible contribution” to the international goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C.
A spokesperson said the government would carefully consider the CCC’s advice.
If the government commits to the suggested target, it would represent a significant advance on the UK’s current international pledge to cut emissions by 68% by 2030.
It is, however, broadly in line with the UK’s legally-binding carbon-cutting path towards net zero emissions by 2050.
These figures do not include emissions from products manufactured abroad and imported, nor those from international flights and shipping, in line with UN standards.
The UK’s relative success so far has been largely down to cleaning up electricity, with progress in other areas, such as home heating, proving more difficult.
But the CCC is confident that the UK’s targets are still possible.
“All the core technologies have got cheaper, and they keep getting cheaper, and that’s what gives us more and more confidence that we’ll be able to achieve this very ambitious level of emissions reductions,” Nigel Topping, member of the CCC, told BBC News Climate Editor Justin Rowlatt.
‘Climate leadership’ ahead of COP29
As part of global agreements to tackle climate change, countries have to submit new carbon-cutting targets by early next year.
But the government is expected to announce its new target early, at the upcoming UN climate conference (COP29) in Azerbaijan in November.
It hopes this will set the ball rolling and encourage other nations to ramp up their plans.
“Britain is back in the business of climate leadership,” a spokesperson for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said.
The focus of COP29, though, will be money.
There are hopes for a new deal on the funds that richer countries – largely responsible for global warming – should give to poorer nations to help them tackle climate change.
The CCC calls for the UK to commit its fair share of money in line with its leadership ambitions.
It also says that the government should improve preparations for the impacts of rising temperatures back home.
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