The outlook for “Doomsday Glacier” just got gloomier. 

Scientists are warning the Antarctic Ice Sheet, known formally as the Thwaites Glacier, will deteriorate “further and faster” and that sea level rise triggered by the melting could impact “hundreds of millions” in coastal communities.

“Towards the end of this century, or into the next century, it is very probable that we will see a rapid increase in the amount of ice coming off of Antarctica,” said Dr. Ted Scambos, a glaciologist at the University of Colorado. “The Thwaites is pretty much doomed.”

The findings are the culmination of six years of research conducted by the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration, a collective of more than 100 scientists.

The “Doomsday Glacier,” roughly the size of the state of Florida, is one of the largest glaciers in the world. Scientists predict that its collapse could contribute to 65 centimeters, or roughly 26 inches in sea levels to rise.

The sea level rise could be even higher though if you account for the ice the Thwaites will draw in from the large surrounding glacial basins when it collapses. “That total will be closer to three meters of sea level rise,” Scambos said.

According to the researchers, the volume of water flowing into the sea from the Thwaites and its neighboring glaciers has doubled from the 1990s to the 2010s.

Approximately 1/3 of the front of the Twaites is currently covered by a thick plate of ice — an ice shelf — floating in the ocean that blocks ice from flowing into the sea. However, Scambos said the melting is accelerating and that the ice sheet is “very near to the point of breakup.” 

“Probably within the next two or three years, it will break apart into some large icebergs,” he said. This will eventually leave the front of the glacier exposed. This may not necessarily lead to a sudden acceleration in melting, but it will change how the ocean interacts with the front of the ice shelf, Scambos said.

Deep ridges that prevent ice from flowing into the ocean are on their way out. The ridges, in the bedrock below the ice sheet in Antarctica, provide a “resistive force” against the ice, Scambos said, that slows down its flow into the ocean. As the Thwaites collapses, it will lose contact with these protective ridges, causing more ice to empty into the ocean.

One of the more surprising findings to come from the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration was how tidal activity around the glacier is pumping warmer sea water into the ice sheet at high speed. That water, which is a couple of degrees above freezing, is getting trapped in parts of the glacier and forced further upstream.

“It goes in every day, it gets squashed up under the glacier. It completely melts whatever freshwater ice it can, and then it gets ejected, and then the whole thing starts again,” said Scambos.

The new findings from the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration add to a vast body of research on how the deterioration of glaciers worldwide could contribute to sea level rise. In May, a study found that high-pressure ocean water is seeping beneath the “Doomsday Glacier” leading to a “vigorous ice melt.”  

Study co-author Christine Dow called the Thwaites the “most unstable place in the Antarctic” and said the speed at which its melting could prove “devastating for coastal communities around the world.” 

Researchers at the University of California, Irvine predicted the ocean could rise by about 60 centimeters, or about 23.6 inches, roughly on par with the predictions from scientists part of the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration.

Scientists also have also warned about the potential consequences if the Greenland ice sheet were to melt. Greenland’s melting ice mass is now the No. 1 driver of sea level rise, according to Paul Bierman, a scientist at the University of Vermont. If it melts completely, scientists project it could lead to 20 to 25 feet of sea-level rise.

Rising global temperatures linked to climate change have made oceans warmed and generated new wind patterns that make these glaciers more susceptible to melting.

“It is very likely related to increasing greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere, which changed wind patterns around Antarctica, and therefore changed ocean circulation around Antarctica,” said Scambos. “That’s the main culprit.”

Scientists project that without intervention, the Thwaites could completely disappear by the 23rd century.

Enterprises need to heed a warning: Ignore AI governance at your own risk.

AI governance is essentially a set of policies and standards designed to mitigate the risks associated with using AI — including generative AI — to inform business decisions and automate processes previously carried out by human beings.

The reason it’s now needed, that it cannot be ignored, is that enterprise interest in generative AI is exploding, which has led to more interest in traditional AI as well.

Historically, AI and machine learning models and applications were developed by and used mostly by small data science teams and other experts within organizations, never leaving their narrow purview. The tools were used to do forecasting, scenario planning and other types of predictive analytics, as well as automate certain repetitive processes also overseen by small groups of experts.

Now, however, sparked by OpenAI’s November 2022 launch of ChatGPT, which represented significant improvement in large language model capabilities, enterprises want to extend their use of AI tools to more employees to drive more rapid growth. LLMs such as ChatGPT and Google Gemini enable true natural language processing that was previously impossible.

When combined with an enterprise’s data, true NLP lets any employee with an internet connection and the requisite clearance query and analyze data in ways that previously required expert knowledge, including coding skills and data literacy training. In addition, when applied to enterprise data, generative AI technology can be trained to relieve experts of repetitive tasks, including coding, documentation and even data pipeline development, thus making developers and data scientists more efficient.

That combination of enabling more employees to make data-driven decisions and improving the efficiency of experts can result in significant growth.

If done properly.

If not, enterprises risk serious consequences, including decisions based on bad AI outputs, data leaks, legal noncompliance, customer dissatisfaction and lack of accountability, all of which could lead to financial losses.

Therefore, as interest in expanding the use of both generative AI and traditional AI transitions to more actual use of AI, and as more employees with less expertise get access to data and AI tools, enterprises need to ensure their AI tools are governed.

Some organizations have heeded the warning, according to Kevin Petrie, an analyst at BARC U.S.

“It is increasing,” he said. “Security and governance are among the top concerns related to AI — especially GenAI — so the demand for AI governance continues to rise.”

However, according to a survey Petrie conducted in 2023, only 25% of respondents said their organization has the proper AI governance controls to support AI and machine learning initiatives, while nearly half said their organization lacks the proper governance controls.

Diby Malakar, vice president of product management at data catalog specialist Alation, similarly said he has noticed a growing emphasis on AI governance.

SingleStore customers, like those of most data management and analytics vendors, have expressed interest in developing and deploying generative AI-driven tools. And as they build and implement conversational assistants, code translation tools and automated processes, they are concerned with ensuring proper use of the tools.

“In every customer call, they are saying they’re doing more with GenAI, or at least thinking about it,” Malakar said. “And one of the first few things they talk about is how to govern those assets — assets as in AI models, feature stores and anything that could be used as input into the AI or the machine learning lifecycle.”

Governance, however, is hard. Data governance has been a challenge for enterprises for years. Now, AI governance is taking its place alongside data governance as a requirement as well as a challenge.