“We will introduce them independently of who approves them,” Merz said — a statement that was taken to mean he was prepared to accept the AfD’s help in getting the proposals over the line. He reiterated the point in a televised interview: “If the AfD agrees, they agree. If they don’t, let them abstain. There are no conversations, no negotiations, no joint government between us,” he said.
The response from his political opponents was swift, his words denounced as presaging a break from a long-standing taboo. The Greens’ chancellor candidate Robert Habeck told his preelection congress that Merz had taken a “step too far” and was flouting European law.
Meanwhile, AfD chancellor candidate Alice Weidel crowed: “The firewall has fallen.”
And as the result was read out on Wednesday evening, that is exactly what happened. The first CDU motion to restrict migration scraped through by a mere three votes, backed by two small parties and the AfD. The dam has now collapsed. And amid the fury, it will take some for the repercussions to be fully understood.
GERMANY NATIONAL PARLIAMENT POLL OF POLLS
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Merz’s problem is that winning the election and forming the next government require two different sets of skills and messaging. The CDU fears that some of its voters will defect to the AfD because of immigration. And Weidel has echoed Trump, declaring she’d close Germany’s borders “on day one.” Of course, that wouldn’t happen because it’s almost impossible for the AfD to form a government — though the line will resonate with some.
But Merz and those around him — some of whom were perturbed by his recent utterance — know that on that very same first day, they’ll have to form a coalition, and the only two possible partners are the SPD or the Greens (or both, if the arithmetic goes against them). And while the two parties’ have definitely hardened their positions on immigration, they also don’t want to alienate voters who want a more moderate stance and worry about growing xenophobia and hostility toward migrants.
In fact, the current coalition already started bringing down the numbers: Some 230,000 people applied for asylum in Germany in 2024, marking a 30 percent decrease from the previous year, and removals of “illegals” went up. The government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz chose not to shout too loudly about these statistics, trying to keep both sides on board — it’s an approach that’s characterized Scholz’s leadership, including his reluctance to publicly explain exactly how much military assistance Germany is giving Ukraine.
But Merz has seemingly concluded that voters want their meat rare, and that if he doesn’t deliver, the AfD will. And while he’s said his position on migration is “non-negotiable” when it comes to forming the next coalition, he ultimately will have to negotiate with potential partners from mainstream parties who see his actions this week as unconscionable. That is his — and Germany’s — terrible bind.
