Responding to Ukraine’s acceptance of a U.S.-brokered 30-day ceasefire agreement on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to manipulate President Donald Trump regarding Russia’s acceptance of that agreement.
Ever the KGB-trained manipulator, Putin knows he cannot outright reject Trump’s overture. To do so would invite Trump’s wrath and crystalize for the president what is known to most other objective observers, namely that Russia remains the primary aggressor in this conflict and the major obstacle to its just resolution. To counter this perception, Putin suggested that a ceasefire was “good” and that “we absolutely support it.” Just as long as, that is, the ceasefire addressed certain “nuances.”
A book could be written on the KGB definition of nuances — The Mitrokhin Archive offers a good start.
Putin’s gamesmanship here was entirely predictable. As I noted on Tuesday, “It is likely that Putin will not reject a ceasefire outright, fearing that doing so would aggravate Trump. Instead, the Russian leader may attempt to extract further concessions from Trump in return for his ceasefire commitment. These might include the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Russia’s city of Kursk or perhaps a statement from Trump that most of Russian-occupied Ukraine will remain under Russian control as part of any final status accord.”
The cautious word choice of “nuances” notwithstanding, Putin then made pretty clear what he wants from Trump in return for a ceasefire. It goes way beyond what could objectively be called nuances. Putin demanded “guarantees” that “Ukraine will not conduct mobilization, will not train soldiers and will not receive weapons” during the pause in fighting. This is a nonstarter in that Russia plainly will not match these caveats. Putin also questioned how the ceasefire would affect fighting in Russia’s Kursk province, where a Ukrainian penetration force continues to control areas of Russian territory. Notably, in light of Russia’s near-pristine record of signing then systematically breaking ceasefire agreements, Putin also questioned whether a ceasefire would actually work. As he put it, “Who will give orders to cease hostilities and what is the cost of these orders?”
Here we see a more diplomatically skillful elocution of Putin’s maximalist agenda than that which his top U.S. policy adviser offered on Thursday. Yuri Ushakov more honestly declared that Russia believes the ceasefire plan is a product of “hasty actions” that would serve as little more than a “temporary respite for the Ukrainian military.” Putin will now do everything he can to present his nuances as small, reasonable requests when he speaks to Trump via phone this weekend. He will simultaneously whisper sweet things in Trump’s ear about his earnest interest in securing a durable peace.
Trump must resist the manipulator’s rhetoric. Putin will bet he can succeed. After all, Trump has shown a problematic tendency both to take Putin at his word, and allow himself to be pressured by that same word in excessive deference to Putin’s threats. Instead, flowing from his oft-stated moral interest in ending the killing this war has wrought, the president should stand firm in his call. He should make clear that a just peace requires the starting point of a mutual show of sincerity by Ukraine and Russia that they are willing to end the fighting. Trump should state that just as Ukraine has accepted a no-strings-attached ceasefire, he expects Russia to do the same.
But that will simply be the start. Just as he has been willing to put extraordinary pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to make sacrifices for peace, Trump must be ready to do the same with Putin. He should warn the Russian president that any delay or effort to add strings to the ceasefire accord will result in punitive new sanctions on Russia’s energy export industry, including secondary sanctions on its critical trading partners in China, the United Arab Emirates, and India.
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Those sanctions could implode the Russian economy, which is far weaker than commonly understood. In short, Trump has the ace cards here. But unless he’s willing to dangle their use, Putin will continue to undermine the noble cause Trump has set upon. And alongside the American allies who will be crucial to preserving any final status peace deal, Ukraine will see that Trump is not a reliable interlocutor who can be trusted.
In other words, the cause of peace will die with Trump’s obedience to Putin’s manipulation.