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Crypto World

S&P Global Finds Bitcoin’s Evolving Role in Markets

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Editor’s note: S&P Global today releases Bitcoin volatility and market dynamics findings, highlighting Bitcoin’s shift from a niche asset to a market-connected instrument. The full report, Bitcoin Volatility Trends: A Deep Dive into Market Dynamics and Risk, examines price patterns, volatility, and the interplay with traditional markets, while noting that tokenized assets and new products introduce additional risks beyond the asset itself. As Cristina Polizu, Managing Director of S&P Global Ratings, emphasizes, volatility has trended down in the long term, yet remains linked to broader market conditions and carries custodial, smart contract, and operational risks.

Key points

  • Volatility Trends: Bitcoin’s price swings are on a long-term downward trend as institutional adoption grows, with increased liquidity from futures and ETFs.
  • Bitcoin Hedge Insights: Bitcoin functions more effectively as a hedge against long-term currency debasement than as a hedge against short-term inflation.
  • Structural Market Risks: Bitcoin’s trading structure, featuring leveraged perpetual futures markets and automated liquidations, amplifies price volatility compared to other financial assets.
  • New Product Risks: Innovations like tokenized bitcoin, ETFs, and Digital Asset Treasury companies introduce extra risks beyond the asset, including counterparty, custodial, smart contract, and operational risks.

Why this matters

This research suggests Bitcoin’s volatility is trending lower over time while its market connections deepen, linking its performance to broader financial conditions. The addition of new products and tokenized offerings can add complexity and risk, influencing how investors assess exposure to digital assets and their role in diversified portfolios.

What to watch next

  • Monitor institutional adoption and liquidity trends as futures and ETFs expand.
  • Watch developments in tokenized bitcoin and other new-product offerings for risk implications.
  • Observe Bitcoin’s price behavior and its relationship to traditional markets as the asset evolves.

Disclosure: The content below is a press release provided by the company/PR representative. It is published for informational purposes.

S&P Global Finds Bitcoin’s Evolving Role in Markets

— Bitcoin now accounts for more than half of cryptocurrency markets’ nearly $2.33 trillion capitalization*

— Bitcoin’s price has dropped by nearly half since October 2025

— Price volatility for bitcoin is on a long-term downward trend – though it remains higher than that of traditional assets

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NEW YORK (March 5, 2026) – S&P Global today published new research (see report link) examining how bitcoin has evolved from a niche asset to one with meaningful linkages to traditional financial markets.

Bitcoin Volatility Trends: A Deep Dive into Market Dynamics and Risk,’ provides a detailed analysis of bitcoin’s market behavior, price patterns, and market trends.

Key findings from the research reveal:

    • Volatility Trends: Bitcoin’s price swings are on a long-term downward trend as institutional adoption grows, though they remain larger than those of traditional assets. A growing market for bitcoin futures and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) increased bitcoin adoption, which in turn increased liquidity.
    • Bitcoin Hedge Insights: The analysis indicates bitcoin functions more effectively as a hedge against long-term currency debasement than as a hedge against short-term inflation.
    • Structural Market Risks: Bitcoin’s trading structure, featuring leveraged perpetual futures markets and automated liquidations, amplifies price volatility compared to other financial assets.
    • New Product Risks: Innovations like tokenized bitcoin, ETFs, and Digital Asset Treasury companies introduce extra risks beyond the asset, including counterparty, custodial, smart contract, and operational risks.

Cristina Polizu, Managing Director, S&P Global Ratings, said: “Our research indicates that bitcoin’s volatility has trended down over the long term, and that its behavior is increasingly linked to broader market conditions. At the same time, the added complexity of new bitcoin-related products can introduce risks beyond the asset itself, including custodial, smart contract, and operational risks.”

Bitcoin Volatility Trends: A Deep Dive into Market Dynamics and Risk,’ is part of the Look Forward research series, special reports that offer a deep dive into the most important themes, trends, and topics that are transforming the global economy.

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S&P Global: Building on Growth in Digital Assets

S&P Global has continued driving growth in Digital Assets markets, underpinned by its leading analyst-driven research and opinions:

Media Contacts

Isabel Allanwood

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S&P Global

+ 44 7483 368 605

isabel.allanwood@spglobal.com

PR_COE@spglobal.com

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Russell Gerry

S&P Global Ratings

+44 7817 126 628

russell.gerry@spglobal.com

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About S&P Global

S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) enables businesses, governments, and individuals with trusted data, expertise and technology to make decisions with conviction. We are Advancing Essential Intelligence through world-leading benchmarks, data, and insights that customers need in order to plan confidently, act decisively, and thrive economically in a rapidly changing global landscape.

From helping our customers assess new investments across the capital and commodities markets to guiding them through the energy expansion, acceleration of artificial intelligence, and evolution of public and private markets, we enable the world’s leading organizations to unlock opportunities, solve challenges, and plan for tomorrow – today. Learn more at www.spglobal.com.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Crypto World

Circle faces backlash after $285 million Drift hack

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Circle (CRCL) may rally another 60% driven by stablecoin adoption, AI agentic finance: Bernstein

After the $285 million Drift hack, the focus is shifting to Circle (CRCL) and whether it could have done more to stop the money.

The attacker siphoned off roughly $71 million in USDC as part of the exploit Wednesday, according to blockchain security firm PeckShield. After converting most of the rest of the stolen assets to USDC, the hacker used Circle’s cross-chain transfer protocol, CCTP, to bridge about $232 million in USDC from Solana to Ethereum, making recovery efforts more difficult.

That movement has drawn criticism from parts of the crypto community, including prominent blockchain investigator ZachXBT, who argued Circle could have acted faster to limit the damage.

“Why should crypto businesses continue to build on Circle when a project with 9 fig[ure] TVL [total value locked] could not get support during a major incident?,” he said in an X post following the attack.

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To freeze or not to freeze

The company had tools at its disposal, ZachXBT pointed out. Under its own terms, Circle reserves the right to blacklist addresses and freeze USDC tied to any suspicious activity.

Preemptively freezing wallets linked to the exploit could have slowed or stopped the attacker’s ability to move funds, one stablecoin infrastructure firm founder told CoinDesk.

However, acting without a court order or law enforcement request might expose Circle to legal risk, the person added.

Salman Banei, general counsel of tokenized asset network Plume, said freezing assets without formal authorization could expose issuers to liability if done incorrectly. He argued regulators should address that legal gap.

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“Lawmakers should provide a safe harbor from civil liability if digital asset issuers freeze assets when, in their reasonable judgment, there is strong basis to believe that illicit transfers have occurred,” Banei said.

That constraint was central to the company’s response.

“Circle is a regulated company that complies with sanctions, law enforcement orders, and court-mandated requirements,” a spokesperson said in an email to CoinDesk. “We freeze assets when legally required, consistent with the rule of law and with strong protections for user rights and privacy.”

‘Gray zone’

The episode highlights a deeper tension that’s drawing increasing scrutiny as stablecoins grow.

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Tokens like USDC are becoming a core part of global money flows, especially for cross-border payments and trading. At the same time, they are also used in illicit activity, putting issuers under pressure to act quickly when things go wrong.

According to TRM Labs, roughly $141 billion in stablecoin transactions in 2025 were linked to illicit activity, including sanctions evasion and money laundering.

Blockchain security firms pointed to North Korean hackers as likely being behind the Drift exploit.

Stablecoins issued by centralized, regulated entities like Circle’s USDC are designed to be programmable and controllable, a feature that can help stop illicit flows but could also raise concerns about overreach and due process.

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In the Drift exploit’s case, the situation isn’t that clear-cut, said Ben Levit, founder and CEO of stablecoin ratings agency Bluechip.

“I think people are framing this too simplistically as ‘Circle should’ve frozen,’” he said. “This wasn’t a clean hack, it was more of a market/oracle exploit, which puts it in a gray zone.”

“So any action by Circle becomes a judgment call, not just a compliance decision,” he added.

To him, the bigger issue is consistency. “USDC can’t be positioned as neutral infrastructure while also allowing discretionary intervention without clear rules,” Levit said. “Markets can handle strict policies or no intervention, but ambiguity is much harder to price.”

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That leaves issuers in a difficult position. Moving too slowly risks criticism that they are enabling bad actors, while acting too quickly without legal backing raises concerns about overreach.

And in fast-moving exploits, that trade-off becomes especially stark, with the window to act often measured in minutes rather than weeks or months of legal processes.

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Crypto World

US Community Banks Push Back on Coinbase Trust Charter Approval

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Coinbase, Banks, Bank of America, United States

The Independent Community Bankers of America has opposed the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s (OCC) conditional approval of Coinbase’s national trust bank charter, warning the application falls short of regulatory standards and could pose risks to consumers and the financial system.

On Thursday, ICBA said Coinbase’s application shows deficiencies in risk controls, profitability and resolution planning, and argued the OCC lacks statutory authority to expand trust powers for crypto-related activities without applying the full set of banking regulations.

The group said the decision reflects a broader trend of nonbank entities seeking access to the benefits of bank charters without meeting the same regulatory requirements. It wrote:

The sudden influx of applications demonstrates nonbank entities are seeking the benefits of a US bank charter without satisfying the full scope of US bank regulations.

Americans for Financial Reform Education Fund also criticized the decision, warning the approval departs from longstanding banking law and could expose the financial system to risks tied to crypto market volatility, fraud and money laundering.

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The objections follows the OCC’s conditional approval on Thursday of Coinbase’s application to establish a national trust bank, after six months of review by the US regulator.

Coinbase, Banks, Bank of America, United States
Industry opposition to OCC’s Coinbase approval is growing. Source: Americans for Financial Reform Education Fund

Coinbase released a statement on Thursday saying the charter would bring its custody and market infrastructure business under federal oversight, emphasizing that it does not plan to hold customer deposits or engage in fractional reserve lending, and adding that “the right path forward for crypto is through the system — not around it.”

Related: Crypto awareness tops 80% among young people in UK: Coinbase survey

Stablecoin yield dispute stalls crypto market structure bill

The opposition is part of a broader dispute between banking groups and crypto companies over the role of digital assets in the financial system, particularly around stablecoins and yield-bearing products.

In January, CEO of Bank of America Brian Moynihan warned that allowing stablecoin issuers to offer interest could draw as much as $6 trillion in deposits out of the banking system, reducing lending capacity and pushing borrowing costs higher.

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Industry groups such as the Bank Policy Institute have also raised similar concerns in letters to lawmakers, arguing that regulatory gaps could allow yield-bearing stablecoin products to bypass restrictions and disrupt traditional credit channels.

The debate is currently playing out in Washington, where Coinbase is engaged in policy discussions over the US Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, a bill aimed at establishing federal rules for crypto oversight.

Coinbase, Banks, Bank of America, United States
Source: Brian Armstrong

While Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said in January that the company could not support the legislation as drafted due to restrictions on stablecoin rewards, Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal said on Thursday that lawmakers are nearing agreement on core elements of the bill, though the yield issue remains a key sticking point.

The dispute has delayed a Senate Banking Committee markup, a required step before the bill can advance to a full Senate vote, leaving broader efforts to establish a federal framework for digital assets unresolved.

Magazine: Nobody knows if quantum secure cryptography will even work

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